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Iran’s Steadily Eroding Ring of Fire
Objects are seen in the sky above Jerusalem after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in Jerusalem April 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
JNS.org – Iran’s ring of fire around Israel is shrinking and the Islamic Republic’s axis is not what it was several months ago, a former senior Israeli defense official says, following high profile targeted killings of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief of staff Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
In a call with journalists organized by the Jerusalem Press Club, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasized that the Israel Defense Forces’ recent achievements in Gaza represent a significant blow to the Iranian axis.
Amidror highlighted the broader implications of Israel’s operations beyond the targeted assassinations. He noted that the successful elimination of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas is part of a larger picture.
“If we want to understand the situation, we have to look not just at the success of assassinating important people, one in Hezbollah, one the head of Hamas, but also at the situation in Gaza,” said Amidror, who is a senior research fellow at both the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
He pointed out that Hamas in Gaza is steadily losing its operational capabilities. Once a formidable military-terror organization, Hamas in Gaza now operates at a fraction of its previous strength due to sustained IDF operations.
“If Hamas began October 7 with 100% capabilities, today it is at 30%. Seventy percent was destroyed by Israel,” Amidror said.
The successful war against Hamas means the remainder of the Iranian axis must deal with a new reality.
“The picture in front of decision-makers in Tehran, Beirut and elsewhere is different from a few months ago when it seemed Israel was losing its position,” Amidror said.
“The proxies, the ring of fire that they [the Iranians] build around Israel, in which the strongest element is Hezbollah, not Hamas—now, after the 7th of October, we have to finish the job in Gaza and then to think when and how and where to do the needed actions against Hezbollah.
“It might happen within few days if the situation will deteriorate. But it must be postponed for a few months, so that Israel will be in a better position to do it in the future after rebuild our stores [of munitions] and so on and so forth,” he assessed.
The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and the success of Israel in eliminating Hezbollah’s No. 2 in Beirut show “Israel’s determination to eliminate the organizational side of Hamas, not just its military capabilities,” Amidror added.
Hamas will find someone to represent Hamas in Qatar and in Tehran in the future, said Amidror. Hamas in Gaza terror chief Yahya Sinwar is more concerned about his position in Gaza, he noted.
‘Connect intelligence to the right weapon’
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate and current president of MIND Israel, a consultancy that advises Israeli leaders and security agencies, said that the two quality operations of Israel Defense Forces against two top terrorists, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, “show the capability to connect intelligence to the right weapon.”
Yadlin continued, “Israel is basically implementing here the Munich Olympics revenge [program] that took about a decade to assassinate all those who were involved in the Munich ’72 massacre. So Israel opted to do the same to all these that were involved in the 7 October attack, and the killing, burning, beheading and raping of our citizens in the western Negev.”
Yadlin said that he expects Hezbollah and Iran will to evaluate their next steps carefully before responding. “Both sides are trying to find a modus operandi that will be strong enough to make a statement but not escalate to a full-scale war.”
The question remains how these developments will influence future negotiations and possible ceasefires. Amidror speculated that the hostages’ situation in Gaza might be influenced more by the situation of the ground than by the assassination of leaders. “For Sinwar, the situation in Gaza is much more important than the assassination of Haniyeh,” he assessed.
He listed Haniyeh, Hamas deputy politburo chief Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in Beirut in January, and Hamas military-terror chief in Gaza Mohammed Deif, as well as Hamas’s No. 3 in Gaza, Marwan Issa, as being eliminated. “So we are now four out of six from the top leaders that already punished for what they have done on the 7th of October.”
Remaining alive are Sinwar and his brother Muhammad, who appears to have replaced Deif as head of Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza.
“The fact that it was done in Beirut and Tehran is to say we are learning that Gaza is not the core of the issue anymore,” said Yadlin. “Israel is now in a war with seven fronts and the leading forces in this front are Iran and Hezbollah.”
The post Iran’s Steadily Eroding Ring of Fire first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Obituary: Elexis Schloss, 78, an Edmonton entrepreneur and philanthropist who also performed quiet acts of kindness
Elexis (Conn) Schloss, a vibrant entrepreneur and philanthropist who supported a wide array of causes, both in and beyond Edmonton, died in Victoria on Oct. 31. She was 78. Her […]
The post Obituary: Elexis Schloss, 78, an Edmonton entrepreneur and philanthropist who also performed quiet acts of kindness appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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Saudi Arabia Ups Anti-Israel Rhetoric Amid Iran Rapprochement, Raising Questions About Abraham Accords Expansion
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a virtual cabinet meeting from his office in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 28, 2024. Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler accused the Israeli military of committing “collective genocide” in Gaza while also pressing Israel to respect Iranian sovereignty, amid reports that Tehran has postponed its planned attack on the Jewish state.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s remarks, made in Riyadh on Monday during a summit of leaders of Islamic nations, underscored the evolving rapprochement between the erstwhile archenemies Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The crown prince, also known by his initials MBS, urged the international community to demand that Israel “respect the sovereignty of the sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran and not to violate its lands.”
The two regional heavyweights restored relations last year after decades of animosity.
MBS’s anti-Israel rhetoric came days after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. For Israel, the statement from Riyadh may signal a setback to the normalization process with Saudi Arabia, a long-sought goal within the framework of the Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump during his first term in the White House, that has seen Israel establish formal ties with several Arab states in recent years.
According to a Sky News Arabia report published two days later and citing Iranian officials, Tehran has shelved a planned third direct strike on Israel, with the delay attributed to possible forthcoming diplomatic talks with Trump. Israel Hayom published a similar report the following day, citing officials in Jerusalem familiar with the matter.
Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref expressed his hope that the incoming Trump administration would put a stop to Israel’s campaigns against its terrorist proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The American government is the main supporter of the actions of the Zionist regime [Israel], and the world is waiting for the promise of the new government of this country to immediately stop the war against the innocent people of Gaza and Lebanon,” Aref said at Monday’s gathering.
Observers noted that Saudi Arabia’s shift could stem from both domestic and regional considerations. For the kingdom, improving relations with Iran is a strategic move to de-escalate conflicts in Yemen, where both countries have backed opposing sides. By opening diplomatic channels with Iran, Saudi Arabia also aims to reduce its dependence on Western security guarantees amid growing regional autonomy. According to Dr. Eyal Pinko, a Middle East expert who served in Israeli intelligence for more than three decades, Saudi Arabia is also under pressure from France, a major arms supplier, to maintain a moderate stance and promote regional peace.
“Saudi Arabia understands [it] cannot rely on the Americans” for arms, Pinko told The Algemeiner.
For its part, Iran may be seeking closer ties with the Gulf kingdom as a result of recent Israeli operations that have decimated the senior leadership of Hezbollah, Iran’s most influential proxy in the Arab world that has long served as a strategic partner.
“Iran is spreading its bets all around, not to be on one side or another,” Pinko said.
Hezbollah, along with Hamas in Gaza, had in the past been blacklisted as terrorist groups by Riyadh.
The New York Times last month cited a Saudi tycoon with ties to the monarchy as saying that the war in Gaza has “set back any Israeli integration into the region.”
“Saudi Arabia sees that any association with Israel has become more toxic since Gaza,” Ali Shihabi told the newspaper.
In another blow for Saudi-Israel relations, Riyadh announced it would revoke the license of the Saudi news broadcaster, MBC, after it labeled the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar a terrorist.
But according to Pinko, the chance of Saudi-Israel normalization is not entirely lost, pending a ceasefire.
“If nothing extreme happens with Iran until Jan. 20 [when Trump takes office], I believe that the Abraham Accords will come back to the table,” he said.
The post Saudi Arabia Ups Anti-Israel Rhetoric Amid Iran Rapprochement, Raising Questions About Abraham Accords Expansion first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Germany Opposes EU Foreign Policy Chief’s Proposal to Suspend Dialogue With Israel
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaks during a session of the lower house of parliament Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, Oct. 10, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Lisi Niesner
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday publicly rejected a proposal by the European Union’s foreign policy chief to suspend regular political dialogue with Israel in response to the Jewish state’s ongoing military campaign against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
“We are always in favor of keeping channels of dialogue open. Of course, this also applies to Israel,” the German Foreign Office said of top EU official Josep Borrell’s plans, according to the German news agency dpa.
The Foreign Office added that, while the political conversations under the EU-Israel Association Council provide a regular opportunity to strengthen relations and, in recent months, discuss the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza, severing that mechanism would be counterproductive.
“Breaking off dialogue, however, will not help anyone, neither the suffering people in Gaza, nor the hostages who are still being held by Hamas, nor all those in Israel who are committed to dialogue,” the statement continued.
Borrell on Wednesday proposed the suspension of dialogue in a letter to EU foreign ministers ahead of their meeting this coming Monday in Brussels, citing “serious concerns about possible breaches of international humanitarian law in Gaza.” He also wrote, “Thus far, these concerns have not been sufficiently addressed by Israel.”
The regular dialogues that Borrell is seeking to break off were enshrined in a broader agreement on relations between the EU and Israel, including extensive trade ties, that was implemented in 2000.
“In light of the above considerations, I will be tabling a proposal that the EU should invoke the human rights clause to suspend the political dialogue with Israel,” Borrell wrote.
A suspension would need the approval of all 27 EU countries, an unlikely outcome. According to Reuters, multiple countries objected when a senior EU official briefed ambassadors in Brussels on the proposal on Wednesday.
While some EU countries, such as Spain and Ireland, have been fiercely critical of Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, others such as the Czech Republic and Hungary have been more supportive.
Hamas, which rules Gaza, launched the ongoing conflict with its invasion of southern Israel last Oct. 7. During the onslaught, Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists murdered 1,200 people, wounded thousands more, and kidnapped over 250 hostages while perpetrating mass sexual violence and other atrocities.
Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
Israel says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties, noting its efforts to evacuate areas before it targets them and to warn residents of impending military operations with leaflets, text messages, and other forms of communication. However, Hamas has in many cases prevented people from leaving, according to the Israeli military.
Another challenge for Israel is Hamas’s widely recognized military strategy of embedding its terrorists within Gaza’s civilian population and commandeering civilian facilities like hospitals, schools, and mosques to run operations, direct attacks, and store weapons.
Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said last month that Israel has delivered over 1 million tons of aid, including 700,000 tons of food, to Gaza since it launched its military operation a year ago. He also noted that Hamas terrorists often hijack and steal aid shipments while fellow Palestinians suffer.
The Israeli government has ramped up the supply of humanitarian aid into Gaza in recent weeks under pressure from the United States, which has expressed concern about the plight of civilians in the war-torn enclave.
Meanwhile, Borrell has been one of the EU’s most outspoken critics of Israel over the past year. Just six weeks after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks, he drew a moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas while speaking to the European Parliament, accusing both of having carried out “massacres” while insisting that it is possible to criticize Israeli actions “without being accused of not liking the Jews.”
Borrell’s speech followed a visit to the Middle East the prior week. While in Israel, he delivered what the Spanish daily El Pais described as the “most critical message heard so far from a representative of the European Union regarding Israel’s response to the Hamas attack of Oct. 7.”
“Not far from here is Gaza. One horror does not justify another,” Borrell said at a joint press conference alongside then-Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “I understand your rage. But let me ask you not to let yourself be consumed by rage. I think that is what the best friends of Israel can tell you, because what makes the difference between a civilized society and a terrorist group is the respect for human life. All human lives have the same value.”
Months later, in March of this year, Borrell claimed that Israel was imposing a famine on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and using starvation as a weapon of war. His comments came a few months before the United Nations Famine Review Committee (FRC), a panel of experts in international food security and nutrition, rejected the assertion that northern Gaza was experiencing famine, citing a lack of evidence. Borrell’s comments prompted outrage from Israel.
In August, Borrell pushed EU member states to impose sanctions on some Israeli ministers.
Monday’s meeting in Brussels will be the last that Borrell will chair before ending his five-year term as the EU’s foreign policy chief.
The post Germany Opposes EU Foreign Policy Chief’s Proposal to Suspend Dialogue With Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.