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Iran’s Steadily Eroding Ring of Fire

Objects are seen in the sky above Jerusalem after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in Jerusalem April 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

JNS.org – Iran’s ring of fire around Israel is shrinking and the Islamic Republic’s axis is not what it was several months ago, a former senior Israeli defense official says, following high profile targeted killings of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief of staff Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

In a call with journalists organized by the Jerusalem Press Club, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasized that the Israel Defense Forces’ recent achievements in Gaza represent a significant blow to the Iranian axis.

Amidror highlighted the broader implications of Israel’s operations beyond the targeted assassinations. He noted that the successful elimination of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas is part of a larger picture.

“If we want to understand the situation, we have to look not just at the success of assassinating important people, one in Hezbollah, one the head of Hamas, but also at the situation in Gaza,” said Amidror, who is a senior research fellow at both the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

He pointed out that Hamas in Gaza is steadily losing its operational capabilities. Once a formidable military-terror organization, Hamas in Gaza now operates at a fraction of its previous strength due to sustained IDF operations.

“If Hamas began October 7 with 100% capabilities, today it is at 30%. Seventy percent was destroyed by Israel,” Amidror said.

The successful war against Hamas means the remainder of the Iranian axis must deal with a new reality.

“The picture in front of decision-makers in Tehran, Beirut and elsewhere is different from a few months ago when it seemed Israel was losing its position,” Amidror said.

“The proxies, the ring of fire that they [the Iranians] build around Israel, in which the strongest element is Hezbollah, not Hamas—now, after the 7th of October, we have to finish the job in Gaza and then to think when and how and where to do the needed actions against Hezbollah.

“It might happen within few days if the situation will deteriorate. But it must be postponed for a few months, so that Israel will be in a better position to do it in the future after rebuild our stores [of munitions] and so on and so forth,” he assessed.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and the success of Israel in eliminating Hezbollah’s No. 2 in Beirut show “Israel’s determination to eliminate the organizational side of Hamas, not just its military capabilities,” Amidror added.

Hamas will find someone to represent Hamas in Qatar and in Tehran in the future, said Amidror. Hamas in Gaza terror chief Yahya Sinwar is more concerned about his position in Gaza, he noted.

‘Connect intelligence to the right weapon’

Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate and current president of MIND Israel, a consultancy that advises Israeli leaders and security agencies, said that the two quality operations of Israel Defense Forces against two top terrorists, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, “show the capability to connect intelligence to the right weapon.”

Yadlin continued, “Israel is basically implementing here the Munich Olympics revenge [program] that took about a decade to assassinate all those who were involved in the Munich ’72 massacre. So Israel opted to do the same to all these that were involved in the 7 October attack, and the killing, burning, beheading and raping of our citizens in the western Negev.”

Yadlin said that he expects Hezbollah and Iran will to evaluate their next steps carefully before responding. “Both sides are trying to find a modus operandi that will be strong enough to make a statement but not escalate to a full-scale war.”

The question remains how these developments will influence future negotiations and possible ceasefires. Amidror speculated that the hostages’ situation in Gaza might be influenced more by the situation of the ground than by the assassination of leaders. “For Sinwar, the situation in Gaza is much more important than the assassination of Haniyeh,” he assessed.

He listed Haniyeh, Hamas deputy politburo chief Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in Beirut in January, and Hamas military-terror chief in Gaza Mohammed Deif, as well as Hamas’s No. 3 in Gaza, Marwan Issa, as being eliminated. “So we are now four out of six from the top leaders that already punished for what they have done on the 7th of October.”

Remaining alive are Sinwar and his brother Muhammad, who appears to have replaced Deif as head of Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza.

“The fact that it was done in Beirut and Tehran is to say we are learning that Gaza is not the core of the issue anymore,” said Yadlin. “Israel is now in a war with seven fronts and the leading forces in this front are Iran and Hezbollah.”

The post Iran’s Steadily Eroding Ring of Fire first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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CENTCOM Chief in Mideast to Mobilize Against Iranian Attack

Illustrative: File photo: A F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, Red Sea, February 13, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed

JNS.org – Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in the Middle East on Saturday amid sky-high tensions as Israel prepares for an imminent attack by Iran and its terrorist proxies.

The trip by the general in charge of American forces in the region was already planned. However, in light of Tehran’s pledge to retaliate for the targeted killing of Hamas terrorist leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil on July 31, his visit will focus on building a multilateral defensive alliance similar to the one that fended off the vast majority of the more than 300 missiles and explosive drones Iran fired at the Jewish state in mid-April.

Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese terror proxy, has separately vowed revenge for the targeted killing of senior member Fuad Shukr in Beirut on July 30.

Israel took responsibility for the Shukr killing, which occurred after Hezbollah murdered 12 children on a soccer field in the Druze Golan town of Majdal Shams on July 27. Jerusalem has not commented on the Haniyeh hit.

Kurilla is expected to visit several Gulf states, Jordan and Israel. Amman is an important stop because King Abdullah II played a pivotal role during the April 13 onslaught.

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi will visit Tehran on Sunday to discuss the security escalation in the Middle East following the Haniyeh assassination, the Qatari newspaper Al-Arabi Al-Jadid reported.

US increases defense posture in the region

Meanwhile, the Pentagon said on Friday that the US is boosting its defense posture in the Middle East in preparation for an expected attack against Israel by Iran and its terror proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has ordered adjustments to US military posture designed to improve US force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies,” the Pentagon statement from deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said.

Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. In addition, destroyers and cruisers capable of ballistic missile defense will be sent to the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

“The secretary has also ordered the deployment of an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, reinforcing our defensive air support capability,” said Singh.

CENTCOM forces destroy Houthi missile and launcher

CENTCOM reported on Saturday that its forces had destroyed a missile and launcher of Iran’s Yemen proxy the Houthis in an area of Yemen controlled by the terrorist group.

“It was determined these weapons presented an imminent threat to US and coalition forces, and merchant vessels in the region. These actions were taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure,” CENTCOM said.

Iran planning larger attack

The Houthis could join the Iranian attack along with Tehran’s other regional terror proxies, with US officials expecting an attack “potentially larger in scope” than in April.

Three US and Israeli officials who talked to Axios reporter Barak Ravid said they expect Iran to attack Israel as early as Monday.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered a direct attack on Israel following the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, The New York Times reported on July 31.

Iranian officials said that the drones and missiles would aim for “military targets in the vicinity of Tel Aviv and Haifa, but would make a point of avoiding strikes on civilian targets,” the Times reported.

However, Tehran said on Saturday that it expects Hezbollah to expand its scope beyond just military targets.

“We expect … Hezbollah to choose more targets and [strike] deeper in its response,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said, as quoted by the official IRNA news agency.

“Secondly, that it will not limit its response to military targets.”

Report: Mossad hired Iranian agents to kill Haniyeh

Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency hired Iranian agents to plant explosive devices in the room where Haniyeh was staying in Tehran for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to Iranian sources who spoke to British newspaper The Daily Telegraph.

According to the report, the original plan was to kill Haniyeh in May when he visited Tehran for the funerals of Iran’s President Ibraham Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who died in a helicopter crash on May 19. However, that plan was postponed after a large crowd gathered in the building where Haniyeh was staying.

Instead, the Mossad hired two Iranian agents who planted explosives in three rooms where Haniyeh was expected to stay at an IRGC guesthouse in the north of the capital, according to the report.

The agents, who were captured on CCTV entering and leaving the room, immediately fled the country, but left behind a source in Iran, according to the Telegraph. The regime in Tehran arrested dozens of suspects in connection with Haniyeh’s death, the Times reported on Saturday, including senior intelligence officers, military officials, and staff workers at the guesthouse.

“They are now certain that Mossad hired agents from the Ansar al-Mahdi protection unit,” an IRGC official told the Telegraph from Tehran, referring to the IRGC unit responsible for protecting high-ranking officials.

A second IRGC official told the Telegraph that “this is a humiliation for Iran and a huge security breach.”

“It’s still a question for everyone how it happened, I can’t make sense of it. There must be something higher up in the hierarchy that no one knows about,” the second official said.

“There is now an internal blame game taking over the IRGC, with different sectors accusing each other of the failure,” the first official said, adding that Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani has been summoning people for questioning, arrests and possible execution.

“The breach has humiliated everyone,” said the IRGC official. “The supreme leader has summoned all the commanders several times over the past two days, he wants answers. For him, addressing the security breach is now more important than seeking revenge,” he added.

The post CENTCOM Chief in Mideast to Mobilize Against Iranian Attack first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Biden-Netanyahu Talk Turns Heated Over Gaza Truce Deal

US President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, June 28, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

JNS.org – President Joe Biden became worked up during a heated conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday regarding ceasefire talks, with the president raising his voice and saying “move on a deal now.”

The president expressed concerns that last Wednesday’s targeted killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which has been blamed on Israel, would sabotage ongoing negotiations to reach a hostages-for-terrorists-and-ceasefire deal in Gaza.

Listening in on the conversation without Israel’s knowledge was Vice President Kamala Harris, Channel 12 reported.

“Israel is making progress with the negotiations, [an Israeli] delegation [to the talks] will go out,” Netanyahu reportedly said, according to leaked and unconfirmed reports.

“Stop bullsh**ting me,” Biden said at the end of the conversation, telling Netanyahu not to take the presidency for granted.

The Prime Minister’s Office did not confirm or deny the conversation, only saying that it would not comment on closed conversations between the prime minister and the US president.

The PMO added: “The Prime Minister persists in his desire to release all of our abductees, the living and the dead alike. The Prime Minister does not interfere in American politics and will work with whoever is elected president, as he also expects the Americans not to interfere in Israeli politics.”

According to The New York Times version of the conversation, based on an anonymous Israeli official, Netanyahu said he was not trying to block a deal and the Haniyeh assassination would delay the talks by at most a few days.

“Netanyahu argued that it would ultimately hasten the finalization of an agreement by putting more pressure on Hamas,” the Times reported, citing the Israeli official.

Biden said the the assassination of Haniyeh was poorly timed, as it came at what the Americans considered the endpoint of the negotiation process.

Biden also expressed concern that killing Haniyeh in Tehran could trigger a wider regional war, which his administration has been endeavoring to prevent, the Times reported.

Biden referred to his conversation with Netanyahu, speaking to reporters on Thursday night at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.

“I’m very concerned about it,” the president said of the Middle East situation. “I had a very direct meeting with the prime minister today—very direct. We have the basis for a ceasefire. He should move on it and they should move on it now.”

Of the Haniyeh assassination’s impact on a hostage deal, Biden said, “It’s not helped. That’s all I’m going to say right now.”

The post Biden-Netanyahu Talk Turns Heated Over Gaza Truce Deal first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Jordan’s Safadi Urges De-Escalation of Regional Tensions in Rare Iran Visit

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi attends a press conference after a meeting on the Gaza situation in the government’s representation facility in Oslo, Norway, Dec. 15, 2023. Photo: NTB/Stian Lysberg Solum via REUTERS

Jordan‘s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi concluded a rare visit to Iran on Sunday with a plea for an end to the escalation of violence and for the region to be able to live in “peace, security and stability.”

Safadi’s visit to Iran follows continued diplomatic contacts by the United States and its partners including France, Britain, Italy and Egypt to prevent further regional escalation following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Iran and Jordan are also seeking to improve their relations following recent tensions related to Amman accusing pro-Iranian militias in Syria of smuggling narcotics into the country, and its taking part in the interception of Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel last April.

“My visit to Iran is to consult on the serious escalation in the region and to engage in a frank and clear discussion about overcoming the differences between the two countries with honesty and transparency,” Safadi said at a press conference in Tehran alongside his Iranian counterpart.

Jordan has always been proactive in defending the Palestinian cause and the rights of the Palestinian people. It has condemned the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and rejected all of Israel’s escalating measures that prevent achieving security, stability, and a just peace,” he said.

Safadi condemned the assassination of Haniyeh last Wednesday, calling it “a heinous crime and an escalatory step that constitutes a violation of international law and humanitarian law, and an infringement on state sovereignty. We reject it entirely.”

“We demand effective action to stop the Israeli aggression on Gaza, to halt such illegal Israeli measures, and to prevent crimes against the Palestinian people, in order to protect the entire region from the consequences of a regional war that would have a devastating impact on everyone,” he said.

“We want our region to live in peace, security, and stability, and we want the escalation to end.”

Regional tensions have spiked following Haniyeh’s killing, which came a day after an Israeli strike in Beirut which killed Fuad Shukr, a senior military commander from the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah.

Hamas and Iran have both accused Israel of carrying out the assassination of Haniyeh and have pledged to retaliate. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the death or denied it.

The post Jordan’s Safadi Urges De-Escalation of Regional Tensions in Rare Iran Visit first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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