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Iran’s Steadily Eroding Ring of Fire
Objects are seen in the sky above Jerusalem after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in Jerusalem April 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
JNS.org – Iran’s ring of fire around Israel is shrinking and the Islamic Republic’s axis is not what it was several months ago, a former senior Israeli defense official says, following high profile targeted killings of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief of staff Fu’ad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
In a call with journalists organized by the Jerusalem Press Club, Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasized that the Israel Defense Forces’ recent achievements in Gaza represent a significant blow to the Iranian axis.
Amidror highlighted the broader implications of Israel’s operations beyond the targeted assassinations. He noted that the successful elimination of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas is part of a larger picture.
“If we want to understand the situation, we have to look not just at the success of assassinating important people, one in Hezbollah, one the head of Hamas, but also at the situation in Gaza,” said Amidror, who is a senior research fellow at both the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
He pointed out that Hamas in Gaza is steadily losing its operational capabilities. Once a formidable military-terror organization, Hamas in Gaza now operates at a fraction of its previous strength due to sustained IDF operations.
“If Hamas began October 7 with 100% capabilities, today it is at 30%. Seventy percent was destroyed by Israel,” Amidror said.
The successful war against Hamas means the remainder of the Iranian axis must deal with a new reality.
“The picture in front of decision-makers in Tehran, Beirut and elsewhere is different from a few months ago when it seemed Israel was losing its position,” Amidror said.
“The proxies, the ring of fire that they [the Iranians] build around Israel, in which the strongest element is Hezbollah, not Hamas—now, after the 7th of October, we have to finish the job in Gaza and then to think when and how and where to do the needed actions against Hezbollah.
“It might happen within few days if the situation will deteriorate. But it must be postponed for a few months, so that Israel will be in a better position to do it in the future after rebuild our stores [of munitions] and so on and so forth,” he assessed.
The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran and the success of Israel in eliminating Hezbollah’s No. 2 in Beirut show “Israel’s determination to eliminate the organizational side of Hamas, not just its military capabilities,” Amidror added.
Hamas will find someone to represent Hamas in Qatar and in Tehran in the future, said Amidror. Hamas in Gaza terror chief Yahya Sinwar is more concerned about his position in Gaza, he noted.
‘Connect intelligence to the right weapon’
Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate and current president of MIND Israel, a consultancy that advises Israeli leaders and security agencies, said that the two quality operations of Israel Defense Forces against two top terrorists, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, “show the capability to connect intelligence to the right weapon.”
Yadlin continued, “Israel is basically implementing here the Munich Olympics revenge [program] that took about a decade to assassinate all those who were involved in the Munich ’72 massacre. So Israel opted to do the same to all these that were involved in the 7 October attack, and the killing, burning, beheading and raping of our citizens in the western Negev.”
Yadlin said that he expects Hezbollah and Iran will to evaluate their next steps carefully before responding. “Both sides are trying to find a modus operandi that will be strong enough to make a statement but not escalate to a full-scale war.”
The question remains how these developments will influence future negotiations and possible ceasefires. Amidror speculated that the hostages’ situation in Gaza might be influenced more by the situation of the ground than by the assassination of leaders. “For Sinwar, the situation in Gaza is much more important than the assassination of Haniyeh,” he assessed.
He listed Haniyeh, Hamas deputy politburo chief Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in Beirut in January, and Hamas military-terror chief in Gaza Mohammed Deif, as well as Hamas’s No. 3 in Gaza, Marwan Issa, as being eliminated. “So we are now four out of six from the top leaders that already punished for what they have done on the 7th of October.”
Remaining alive are Sinwar and his brother Muhammad, who appears to have replaced Deif as head of Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza.
“The fact that it was done in Beirut and Tehran is to say we are learning that Gaza is not the core of the issue anymore,” said Yadlin. “Israel is now in a war with seven fronts and the leading forces in this front are Iran and Hezbollah.”
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Iran Tells France to Review ‘Unconstructive’ Approach Ahead of Nuclear Talks
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the Iranian centrifuges in Tehran, Iran, June 11, 2023. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran‘s foreign ministry called upon Paris to review its “unconstructive” approach, a few days before Tehran is set to hold a new round of talks about its nuclear program with major European countries.
On Monday, Emmanuel Macron said Tehran’s uranium enrichment drive is nearing a point of no return and warned that European partners in a moribund 2015 nuclear deal with Iran should consider reimposing sanctions if no progress is reached.
“Untrue claims by a government that has itself refused to fulfill its obligations under the nuclear deal and has played a major role in [Israel’s] acquisition of nuclear weapons is deceitful and projective,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei wrote on X on Wednesday.
France, Germany, and Britain were co-signatories to the 2015 deal in which Iran agreed to curb enrichment, seen by the West as a disguised effort to develop nuclear-weapons capability, in return for lifting international sanctions.
Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes and has stepped up the program since US President-elect Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the 2015 deal during his first term of office and restored tough US sanctions on Tehran.
French, German, and British diplomats are set to hold a follow-up meeting with Iranian counterparts on Jan. 13 after one in November held to discuss the possibility of serious negotiations in coming months to defuse tensions with Tehran, as Trump is due to return to the White House on Jan. 20.
Baghaei did not mention French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot’s comment regarding three French citizens held in Iran.
Barrot said on Tuesday that future ties and any lifting of sanctions on Iran would depend on their release.
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With Hezbollah Weakened, Lebanon to Hold Presidential Vote
Suleiman Frangieh, leader of the Marada movement, gestures as he speaks after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rai, in Bkerke, Lebanon, Oct.30, 2021. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanon‘s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the Lebanese terrorist group’s ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.
The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October, 2022. None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate.
The vote marks the first test of Lebanon‘s power balance since the Iran-backed Shi’ite terrorist group Hezbollah — which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 ‚ emerged badly pummeled from the war with Israel.
It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.
Reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shi’ite Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have dropped their insistence on Suleiman Frangieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.
Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun — said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval — Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari — head of General Security, a state security agency.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president,” according to a statement from his office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was “a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace” and also for Lebanon‘s economic and social recovery.
However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.
Reflecting Western and regional interest in the vote, French and Saudi envoys met Lebanese politicians in Beirut on Wednesday. Four Lebanese political sources who met the Saudi envoy, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, last week said he spelt out preferred qualifications which signal Saudi support for Aoun.
Saudi Arabia was once a big player in Lebanon, vying with Tehran for influence in Beirut, before seeing its role eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.
HEZBOLLAH STILL SEEN WITH SWAY
Aoun, head of Lebanon‘s US-backed army, would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.
A State Department spokesperson said it was “up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor.”
“We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions,” the spokesperson said.
Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was “no veto” on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States and other countries, will not support Aoun.
Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.
Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild.
Much of the damage is in Shi’ite majority areas.
Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad’s ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.
Lebanon‘s Maronite Bishops called on lawmakers to elect a president, urging a “national awakening.”
Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah‘s weapons have long been a source of division.
Underlining the influence Hezbollah and Amal still wield, he said the only way a president could be elected would be if they agreed on Aoun or Azour. But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would “sever the oxygen from Lebanon.”
Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should not tell Lebanese what to do.
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Bodies of Hostages Youssef and Hamza Ziyadne Retrieved From Gaza
People walk past images of hostages kidnapped in the deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hannah McKay
JNS.org — Israel Defense Forces troops located the bodies of hostages Youssef and Hamza Ziyadne during military operations in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Wednesday evening.
In a statement shared by the Defense Ministry, Katz expressed his “deep condolences to the Ziyadne family upon the discovery of the bodies of Youssef and Hamza, who were kidnapped by Hamas murderers on Oct. 7 and were rescued in a heroic operation by our heroic soldiers.”
“We continue to do everything to fulfill our supreme moral obligation — the return of all the hostages, living and dead, to Israeli soil,” he added.
The IDF and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) confirmed that Youssef’s remains were found in a tunnel in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. The statement did not immediately confirm the discovery of Hamza’s body, though it said that findings in the tunnel raised “serious concerns” for his life.
“Our hearts ache,” Ali Ziyadne, Youssef’s brother, told Israel’s Ynet news outlet. He added, “We wanted them to return to our family alive, but unfortunately they returned dead. Aisha and her brother Bilal were waiting to embrace them. This is a difficult and shocking disaster.”
Youssef Ziyadne, 53, and his children Hamza, 22, Bilal, 18, and Aisha, 17, residents of the Israeli Bedouin community of Rahat, were abducted by Palestinian Hamas terrorists during the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre while they were working in Kibbutz Holit near the border with Gaza.
Bilal and Aisha were released as part of the November 2023 ceasefire agreement between Jerusalem and Hamas after 55 days in captivity.
On Oct. 7, 2023, 25 residents of Rahat, the largest Muslim Bedouin city in Israel’s Negev desert, headed to Gaza border communities Kibbutz Holit and Kibbutz Sufa to work and did not return.
They were among the 1,200 people killed by Hamas during its invasion of Israel that morning. Thousands more were wounded, and more than 250 were taken back to the Strip as hostages, including six Bedouins.
According to Israeli estimates, there are 98 hostages still in Hamas captivity in Gaza, including 94 abducted during the Oct. 7 attacks.
Of the 251 hostages taken on Oct. 7, 157 have been returned or rescued, and Hamas is believed to be holding 36 bodies, 34 of them taken on Oct. 7 and the remaining two being IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, who were kidnapped in 2014.
The post Bodies of Hostages Youssef and Hamza Ziyadne Retrieved From Gaza first appeared on Algemeiner.com.