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Iran’s Strategic Gambit in Nigeria: The Quds Force’s Proliferating Influence
Gen. Esmail Qaani (center), appointed commander of the IRGC-Quds Force in jan. 2020, at a memorial for his predecessor, Gen. Qassem Solaimani, who was killed in a US air strike in the same month. Photo: Reuters/Abacapress.
Nigeria, a nation celebrated for its cultural diversity and abundant natural resources, now stands at a precipice. The African country faces an array of security challenges that threaten not only its own stability, but also pose a significant risk to the broader region.
In the labyrinth of global geopolitics, Nigeria’s security landscape has become a chessboard for international power plays — with Iran emerging as a formidable player.
The West African giant faces a nuanced threat: the entrenchment of Iranian influence, orchestrated through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds Force. This calculated move by Iran not only aims to expand the Islamic Repubic’s strategic depth, but also to undercut Western influence, making Nigeria a focal point of Tehran’s broader “resistance” strategy across Africa.
Nigeria’s security quandaries are diverse and deep-rooted. The northeast reels under the Boko Haram insurgency, a jihadist group with a notorious legacy of violence and radicalism that has spilled blood and sowed discord across the Lake Chad Basin. The northwest and central regions grapple with farmer-herder conflicts that have spiraled into broader ethno-religious violence, providing fertile ground for emerging Islamist extremist factions. Meanwhile, the southeast witnesses a resurgence of separatist violence, particularly around electoral cycles, threatening national unity.
The Niger Delta’s resource curse persists, with militancy and oil theft by gangs challenging state authority and economic stability. These crises strain Nigeria’s military and police, while the impunity enjoyed by perpetrators and alleged abuses by security forces exacerbates grievances.
Amidst this chaos, Iran has found a proxy in Nigeria’s Shia minority, particularly the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN), led by Sheikh Ibrahim Zakzaky. Inspired by the Iranian Revolution, the IMN envisions a theocratic state model akin to Iran’s. Despite the Nigerian government’s crackdown on the IMN, Tehran’s support remains steadfast, revealing an ambition to cement its ideological and geopolitical foothold. This alliance, however, transcends ideological kinship, encompassing military and intelligence support, though the full extent remains shrouded in secrecy.
The Quds Force’s activities in Nigeria, part of a concerted effort to elevate Iran’s influence across Africa, entail clandestine networks aimed at Western interests and personnel. This “horizontal escalation” strategy signifies Iran’s intent to counter Western presence, leveraging proxies like Hezbollah and the IMN. The provision of ideological and military training to Nigerian Shiites, notably in Lebanon, underscores Iran’s commitment to expanding its proxy warfare model to West Africa, potentially stoking sectarian tensions in a region already fraught with religious strife.
The implications of Iran’s maneuvers in Nigeria extend beyond the immediate security implications for the West African nation. They represent a strategic challenge to Western, particularly US, interests in Africa. Iran’s activities in Nigeria, facilitated through proxies, exemplify Tehran’s broader ambition under its global resistance strategy to counter Western influence and expand its geopolitical reach. This involves a calculated use of soft power, military support, and ideological propagation to cultivate allies and proxies that can serve Iran’s interests, and challenge the existing geopolitical order.
The involvement of the Quds Force in Nigeria also illuminates Iran’s broader strategy of leveraging sectarian identities to forge strategic relationships. By supporting the IMN and establishing ties with Hezbollah, Iran not only aims to challenge Nigerian sovereignty but also to create a network of influence that could serve as a bulwark against Western and Sunni Arab states’ influence in Africa.
The Quds Force’s operations in Nigeria signal a potent mix of ideological zeal and strategic ambition that could exacerbate existing conflicts and spawn new ones. The implications for regional security are profound, as the entrenchment of Iranian influence could lead to a recalibration of alliances and power dynamics in West Africa and beyond.
Moreover, the convergence of Iran’s proxy activities with the broader jihadist landscape in Nigeria, characterized by the presence of Boko Haram and its offshoot, IS-WA, introduces an additional layer of complexity to the security matrix. While these groups have primarily Sunni orientations and objectives that diverge from those of the IMN, the overarching theme of external influence and proxy warfare presents a shared thread. This confluence of interests and the potential for tactical or opportunistic alliances among these disparate groups could pose a significant challenge to counter-terrorism efforts and peace-building initiatives in the region.
Addressing the burgeoning threat posed by the Quds Force and Iran’s wider network in Nigeria requires a nuanced, multifaceted strategy that encompasses diplomatic, military, and socio-economic dimensions.
The international community, particularly Western nations, must recalibrate their engagement with Nigeria and the broader African continent to counter Tehran’s influence effectively. This involves not only bolstering Nigeria’s counter-terrorism capabilities but also supporting governance reforms, socio-economic development, and efforts to address the root causes of extremism and sectarianism.
Strategically, it is imperative to enhance intelligence sharing, bolster defensive capabilities, and strengthen diplomatic ties with African nations to create a united front against external interference. Concurrently, initiatives aimed at fostering intra-faith dialogue and reconciliation can mitigate the sectarian divide that external actors like Iran exploit.
Ultimately, a concerted international effort that combines security measures with socio-political reforms can offer a sustainable solution to the complex challenge posed by Iran’s strategic ambitions in Nigeria and Africa at large.
As Nigeria grapples with an array of security challenges, the shadow of Iran’s Quds Force looms large, representing a new front in the geopolitical contestation of Africa. The involvement of the Quds Force, through its support for the IMN and collaboration with Hezbollah, signifies Iran’s ambition to project power and influence far beyond its borders. This development demands vigilant and coordinated responses from both regional and international actors, underscoring the need for a comprehensive strategy to navigate the shadows cast by Iran’s activities in Nigeria, and ensure the continent’s long-term stability and security.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, D.C. He focuses on Middle Eastern regional security affairs, with a particular emphasis on Iran, counter-terrorism, IRGC, MOIS, and ethnic conflicts in MENA. Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic, and English. Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD.
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Iran Says ‘Extremely Cautious’ on Success of Nuclear Talks with US
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Iran and the United States have agreed to continue nuclear talks next week, both sides said on Saturday, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi voiced “extreme cautious” about the success of the negotiations to resolve a decades-long standoff.
US President Donald Trump has signaled confidence in clinching a new pact with the Islamic Republic that would block Tehran’s path to a nuclear bomb.
Araqchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held a third round of the talks in Muscat through Omani mediators for around six hours, a week after a second round in Rome that both sides described as constructive.
“The negotiations are extremely serious and technical… there are still differences, both on major issues and on details,” Araqchi told Iranian state TV.
“There is seriousness and determination on both sides… However, our optimism about success of the talks remains extremely cautious.”
A senior US administration official described the talks as positive and productive, adding that both sides agreed to meet again in Europe “soon.”
“There is still much to do, but further progress was made on getting to a deal,” the official added.
Earlier Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi had said talks would continue next week, with another “high-level meeting” provisionally scheduled for May 3. Araqchi said Oman would announce the venue.
Ahead of the lead negotiators’ meeting, expert-level indirect talks took place in Muscat to design a framework for a potential nuclear deal.
“The presence of experts was beneficial … we will return to our capitals for further reviews to see how disagreements can be reduced,” Araqchi said.
An Iranian official, briefed about the talks, told Reuters earlier that the expert-level negotiations were “difficult, complicated and serious.”
The only aim of these talks, Araqchi said, was “to build confidence about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.”
Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran,” but he repeated a threat of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails.
Shortly after Araqchi and Witkoff began their latest indirect talks on Saturday, Iranian state media reported a massive explosion at the country’s Shahid Rajaee port near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, killing at least four people and injuring hundreds.
MAXIMUM PRESSURE
While both Tehran and Washington have said they are set on pursuing diplomacy, they remain far apart on a dispute that has rumbled on for more than two decades.
Trump, who has restored a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, ditched a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers in 2018 during his first term and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran.
Since 2019, Iran has breached the pact’s nuclear curbs including “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week Iran would have to entirely stop enriching uranium under a deal, and import any enriched uranium it needed to fuel its sole functioning atomic energy plant, Bushehr.
Tehran is willing to negotiate some curbs on its nuclear work in return for the lifting of sanctions, according to Iranian officials, but ending its enrichment program or surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile are among “Iran’s red lines that could not be compromised” in the talks.
Moreover, European states have suggested to US negotiators that a comprehensive deal should include limits preventing Iran from acquiring or finalizing the capacity to put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile, several European diplomats said.
Tehran insists its defense capabilities like its missile program are not negotiable.
An Iranian official with knowledge of the talks said on Friday that Tehran sees its missile program as a bigger obstacle in the talks.
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Palestinian Leader Abbas Names Likely Successor in Bid to Reassure World Powers
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, April 28, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas named close confidant Hussein al-Sheikh as his deputy and likely successor on Saturday, the Palestine Liberation Organization said, a step widely seen as needed to assuage international doubts over Palestinian leadership.
Abbas, 89, has headed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) since the death of veteran leader Yasser Arafat in 2004 but he had for years resisted internal reforms including the naming of a successor.
Sheikh, born in 1960, is a veteran of Fatah, the main PLO faction which was founded by Arafat and is now headed by Abbas. He is widely viewed as a pragmatist with very close ties to Israel.
He was named PLO vice president after the organization’s executive committee approved his nomination by Abbas, the PLO said in a statement.
Reform of the PA, which exercises limited autonomy in the West Bank, has been a priority for the United States and Gulf monarchies hoping the body can play a central role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pressure to reform has intensified since the start of the war in Gaza, where the PLO’s main Palestinian rival Hamas has battled Israel for more than 18 months, leaving the tiny, crowded territory in ruins.
The United States has promoted the idea of a reformed PA governing in Gaza after the war. Gulf monarchies, which are seen as the most likely source of funding for reconstruction in Gaza after the war, also want major reforms of the body.
CALL FOR HAMAS TO DISARM
Israel’s declared goal in Gaza is the destruction of Hamas but it has also ruled out giving the PA any role in government there. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
Hamas, which follows a militant Islamist ideology, has controlled Gaza since 2007 when it defeated the PA in a brief civil war after winning an election the previous year. It also has a large presence in the West Bank.
At a meeting of the PLO’s Central Council on Wednesday and Thursday that approved the position of vice president without naming an appointee, Abbas made his clearest ever call for Hamas to completely disarm and hand its weapons – and responsibility for governing in Gaza – to the PA.
Widespread corruption, lack of progress towards an independent state and increasing Israeli military incursions in the West Bank have undermined the PA’s popularity among many Palestinians.
The body has been controlled by Fatah since it was formed in the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993 and it last held parliamentary elections in 2005.
Sheikh, who was imprisoned by Israel for his activities opposing the occupation during the period 1978-89, has worked as the PA’s main contact liaising with the Israeli government under Abbas and been his envoy on visits to world powers.
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3rd Round of Nuclear Talks Between Iran, US Concludes in Oman
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – The third round of talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has concluded on Saturday, US media reported.
The two sides are understood to have discussed the US lifting of sanctions on Iran, with focuses on technical and key topics including uranium enrichment.
On April 12, the US and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, marking the first official negotiation between the two sides since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term.
The second round of indirect talks took place in Rome, Italy, on April 19.
All parties, including Oman, stated that the first two rounds of talks were friendly and constructive, but Iranian media pointed out that the first two rounds were mainly framework negotiations and had not yet touched upon the core issues of disagreement.
According to media reports, one of the key issues in the expert-level negotiations will be whether Washington will allow Iran to continue uranium enrichment within the framework of its nuclear program. In response, Araghchi made it clear that Iran’s right to uranium enrichment is non-negotiable.
The US, Israel and other Western actors including the United Nation’s nuclear agency reject Iranian claims that its uranium enrichment is strictly civilian in its goals.
The post 3rd Round of Nuclear Talks Between Iran, US Concludes in Oman first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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