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Israel ‘Achieved Its Objectives’ in Iran Operation, Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
Smoke rises following an Israeli attack in Tehran, Iran, June 18, 2025. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
A leading war studies think tank has assessed that Israel “achieved its objectives” in its recent operation against Iran’s nuclear program.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released a report on Tuesday explaining that, in the 12-day operation, “Israel achieved its objectives vis-a-vis the nuclear program by destroying nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killing key nuclear scientists who were instrumental in the development and weaponization of the program.”
ISW, in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the details and implications of the conflict in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.”
Israel launched a broad preemptive attack on Iran earlier this month, targeting military installations and nuclear sites across the country in what officials described as an effort to neutralize an imminent nuclear threat. Over the next several days, Israeli forces systematically dismantled Iran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities, destroying much of the infrastructure and killing top military leaders and nuclear scientists.
The US on Saturday night joined Israel’s campaign by bombing three key Iranian nuclear sites, before President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire to the conflict between the two Middle Eastern adversaries that went into effect on Tuesday.
Debate has raged this week over how extensive the damage was to Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially in the wake of the US bombings.
In the immediate aftermath of the strike, Trump declared that the Iranian nuclear facilities were completely destroyed. However, CNN and other media outlets subsequently reported on a leaked preliminary assessment from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, which found that key elements of the nuclear program were not destroyed and that the strikes only set the program back a few months.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth lambasted the fact that the “top secret report” was leaked, adding that “it was preliminary; it was low confidence.” Trump and other senior administration officials have similarly dismissed the findings of the DIA report, saying that the Iranian nuclear program has been decimated.
ISW indicated it believes the US and Israeli strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites were successful.
“The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself,” the think tank wrote in its Iran Update published on Wednesday. “The Institute of Science and International Security, a nuclear nonproliferation think tank that has long studied the Iranian nuclear program, assessed that it was very likely the strikes destroyed or damaged most of the centrifuges at Fordow on the basis of the impact locations and the effects of the blast waves.”
The Institute of Science and International Security said in its own report that although there are “non-destroyed parts [of the Iranian nuclear program] … [that] can be used in the future to produce weapon-grade uranium,” the US and Israeli attacks “have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.”
Meanwhile, Israeli assessments found that “significant damage” was done to the nuclear sites. Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), said that based on the assessments of senior military intelligence officers, the damage “is … systemic … severe, broad and deep, and pushed back by years.”
The Israeli Atomic Energy Commission added that “the devastating US strike on [the Iranian nuclear site Fordow] destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. We assess that the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes … have set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.”
Axios reporter Barak Ravid noted that Israeli officials were reportedly “perplexed by a leaked US intelligence report that suggested otherwise.”
Ravid also reported that an Israeli official with direct knowledge of intelligence on Iran told Axios that “intercepted communications suggest Iranian military officials have been giving false situation reports to the country’s political leadership — downplaying the extent of the damage.”
Then, in a new assessment on Wednesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the strikes had “severely damaged” Iran’s nuclear program. He explained that they had gained additional intelligence since the initial DIA report. “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable and accurate source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” Ratcliffe wrote.
The central goal of the Israeli campaign, known as Operation Rising Lion, was to disable Iran’s nuclear program, ISW explained. And this main effort was supported “by conducting a campaign designed to prevent Iran from conducting effective retaliatory strikes on Israel by degrading its ballistic missile capabilities.”
“The IDF sought to limit Iran’s ability to respond to Israel at the start of its campaign and continued to destroy Iranian missile launchers and stockpiles throughout the air campaign,” ISW wrote. “Iranian leaders originally planned to launch up to one thousand ballistic missiles at Israel in the immediate aftermath of an Israeli strike, presumably in multiple barrages. The first Iranian missile barrage included about 30 missiles, and Iran never managed to launch over 40 ballistic missiles in a single barrage throughout the 12 days of attacks.”
This aspect of the operation, likewise, was a success. ISW reported that over the entire two-week operation, Iran fired a total of only 543 missiles, of which 89 percent were intercepted (and many that were not intercepted hit open, not residential, areas).
Still, “Iranian ballistic missiles did penetrate Israeli air defenses striking populated areas in some instances, however. Air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will penetrate the system.”
Additionally, the missiles Iran used were not particularly helpful in a military sense. “The relatively poor accuracy of these missiles compared to a precision-guided munition means that even in instances when Iranian missiles struck military targets, they were largely ineffective and caused no casualties and limited damage,” ISW noted.
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Iran Denies Any Meeting With US Next Week, Foreign Minister Says
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a press conference following a meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Russia, April 18, 2025. Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool via REUTERS
Iran currently has no plan to meet with the United States, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Thursday in an interview on state TV, contradicting US President Donald Trump’s statement that Washington planned to have talks with Iran next week.
The Iranian foreign minister said Tehran was assessing whether talks with the US were in its interest, following five previous rounds of negotiations that were cut short by Israel and the US attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The US and Israel said the strikes were meant to curb Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons, while Iran says its nuclear program is solely geared toward civilian use.
Araqchi said the damages to nuclear sites “were not little” and that relevant authorities were figuring out the new realities of Iran’s nuclear program, which he said would inform Iran’s future diplomatic stance.
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Ireland Becomes First European Nation to Advance Ban on Trade With Israeli Settlements
A pro-Hamas demonstration in Ireland led by nationalist party Sinn Fein. Photo: Reuters/Clodagh Kilcoyne
Ireland has become the first European nation to push forward legislation banning trade with Israeli communities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem — an effort officials say is meant “to address the horrifying situation” in the Gaza Strip.
On Wednesday, Irish Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Simon Harris announced that the legislation has already been approved by the government and will now move to the parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade for pre-legislative scrutiny.
“Ireland is speaking up and speaking out against the genocidal activity in Gaza,” Harris said during a press conference.
The Irish diplomat also told reporters he hopes the “real benefit” of the legislation will be to encourage other countries to follow suit, “because it is important that every country uses every lever at its disposal.”
Today Ireland becomes the first country in Europe to bring forward legislation to ban trade with the Occupied Palestinian Territories.
Ireland is speaking up and speaking out against the genocidal activity in Gaza.
Every country must pull every lever at its disposal. pic.twitter.com/Z4RTjqntEY— Simon Harris TD (@SimonHarrisTD) June 24, 2025
Joining a growing number of EU member states aiming to curb Israel’s defensive campaign against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, Ireland’s decision comes after a 2024 advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) declared Israel’s presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem illegal.
The ICJ ruled that third countries must avoid trade or investment that supports “the illegal situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.”
Once implemented, the law will criminalize the importation of goods from Israeli settlements into Ireland, empowering customs officials to inspect, seize, and confiscate any such shipments.
“The situation in Palestine remains a matter of deep public concern,” Harris said. “I have made it consistently clear that this government will use all levers at its disposal to address the horrifying situation on the ground and to contribute to long-term efforts to achieve a sustainable peace on the basis of the two-state solution.”
“Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory are illegal and threaten the viability of the two-state solution,” the Irish diplomat continued. “This is the longstanding position of the European Union and our international partners. Furthermore, this is the clear position under international law.”
Harris also urged the EU to comply with the ICJ’s ruling by taking a more decisive and “adequate response” regarding imports from Israeli settlements.
“This is an issue that I will continue to press at EU level, and I reiterated my call for concrete proposals from the European Commission at the Foreign Affairs Council this week,” he said.
Last week, Ireland and eight other EU member states — Finland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden — called on the European Commission to draft proposals for how EU countries can halt trade and imports with Israeli settlements, in line with obligations set out by the ICJ.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar condemned the latest move by European countries, calling it “shameful” and a misguided attempt to undermine Israel while it faces “existential” threats from Iran and its proxies, including Hamas.
“It is regrettable that even when Israel is fighting an existential threat which is in Europe’s vital interest — there are those who can’t resist their anti-Israeli obsession,” the top Israeli diplomat said in a post on X.
It is regrettable that even when Israel fighting an existential threat which is in Europe vital interest – there are those who can’t resist their anti-Israeli obsession.
Shameful! https://t.co/lxm9qm8sM1— Gideon Sa’ar | גדעון סער (@gidonsaar) June 19, 2025
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US Justice Department Warns of Threats to Jewish Targets as Concern Mounts Over Iranian Sleeper Cells
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei listens to the national anthem as Air Force officers salute during their meeting in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 7, 2025. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
The US Department of Justice is closely tracking potential threats to the Jewish community nationwide amid growing concerns over Iranian sleeper cells launching attacks and fallout from recent American and Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
On Wednesday, US Attorney General Pam Bondi reiterated the Trump administration’s recent warnings about potential Iran-linked sleeper cells and domestic radicalization, following escalating tensions in the Middle East during the 12-day Iran-Israel war.
During her testimony on Capitol Hill, Bondi reassured lawmakers that all federal agencies are working around the clock to keep Americans safe and are closely monitoring any potential national security threats.
Sleeper cells are covert operatives or terrorists embedded in rival countries who remain dormant until they receive orders to act and carry out attacks.
“Iran, of course, is a threat. They have been a threat, and they always will be a threat to our country,” Bondi said in her testimony. “And we are working hand in hand with all of our agencies to protect Americans and to keep us safe.”
Tehran’s ability to coordinate or inspire attacks on American soil has long been a concern for US law enforcement and intelligence officials — a fear that only deepened after US President Donald Trump ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
According to Janatan Sayeh, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based think tank, the threat from sleeper cells remains credible due to the Iranian regime’s ongoing desire to avenge Soleimani’s death.
“Tehran takes its reputation seriously and holds long-standing grudges,” Sayeh told The Algemeiner. “Its defeat in the recent 12-Day War, when top generals, nuclear scientists, and major nuclear infrastructure were lost, will likely deepen its motivation to retaliate, including the possibility of action on US soil.”
Last weekend, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents arrested a former member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with suspected Hezbollah ties, a former Iranian army sniper, and a terror watchlist suspect during a sweep targeting illegal Iranian migrants across the country. Both the IRGC and Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy based in Lebanon, are US-designated terrorist organizations.
When entering the US, Iranian migrants are flagged as “special interest aliens” and undergo heightened federal screening for possible terrorism ties, given Washington’s designation of Tehran as a state sponsor of terrorism.
In last weekend’s ICE operation, five of the 11 Iranians arrested had prior criminal convictions, including grand larceny as well as drug and firearm possession.
Bondi noted that the administration had arrested 1,500 undocumented Iranian immigrants in the US, saying she would discuss the issue further in a classified setting.
“Have they invaded our country? Absolutely,” Bondi said.
For decades, Iran and its proxy Hezbollah have established a strong foothold in the Western Hemisphere, leveraging alliances with governments such as Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua to expand their influence and support terrorist operations and illicit activities.
Backed by Tehran with an estimated $700 million in annual funding, Hezbollah is regarded by experts as the world’s most technically sophisticated terrorist organization, although the group suffered severe losses during its war with Israel last year. Active in at least 15 US cities, the Islamist movement was responsible for more American deaths than any other terrorist group prior to 9/11.
“While the [Iranian] regime often tries to obscure its role to deflect responsibility, that effort doesn’t always succeed, especially given how deeply Israel has penetrated its intelligence apparatus,” Sayeh told The Algemeiner.
“To hedge against these vulnerabilities, Tehran has strengthened ties with Western criminal networks. This allows the regime to distance itself from the assassination and terror plots it orchestrates,” he continued.
Following the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, law enforcement agencies across the country have ramped up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives amid growing fears of retaliation.
Beyond facilitating illicit financing, these operatives act as sleeper agents, poised to carry out terrorist attacks on US soil on behalf of Iran if given such an order.
According to NBC News, Iranian officials warned Trump during last week’s G7 summit that they would deploy “sleeper cells” to carry out attacks on American soil if Washington decided to strike.
Although no specific or credible threats have yet emerged, US Customs and Border Protection says the threat of sleeper cells has “never been higher.”
But this is far from a recent development. It’s an ongoing pattern, with Iranian and Hezbollah agents repeatedly documented over the past two decades surveilling and collecting intelligence on multiple targets throughout the US.
“Tehran has a record of using Iranian nationals to carry out assassination plots and attacks inside the United States,” Sayeh told The Algemeiner. “These operations are typically run by either the Ministry of Intelligence or the IRGC, often through coordination between specialized departments.”
One notable case is the foiled 2011 plot in which US authorities uncovered an Iranian plan to assassinate the then-Saudi ambassador to the US by bombing Café Milano, a Washington, DC restaurant frequented by American officials.
In May 2023, the Justice Department announced that Alexei Saab, 46, was sentenced to 12 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release for receiving military-type training from Hezbollah, marriage fraud, and making false statements.
In 2000, Saab entered the United States, where he lived while remaining a Hezbollah operative who “continued to receive military training in Lebanon and conducted numerous operations.” According to law enforcement and Saab’s own admission, he surveilled various “soft targets” in the US for potential future attacks.
One Hezbollah operative told the FBI during interviews in 2016 and 2017 that if the US and Iran went to war “the US sleeper cell would expect to be called upon to act.” That operative, Ali Mohamed Kourani, and another Hezbollah member were carrying out preoperational surveillance for potential Hezbollah attacks in the US and Panama, according to federal prosecutors.
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