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Israel and the Middle East: Could There Be a Regional Nuclear War?

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi meets with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 14, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Current synergies between Palestinian statehood and regional nuclear war remain generally ignored. Once formally established, a Palestinian state could significantly impact the Israel-Iran balance of power, and also lead to the acceleration of competitive risk-taking in the region.

Though any impending war between Israel and Iran would be fought without a “Palestine” factor, one predictable outcome of such a conflict would be increased pressure on Israel to accept a dedicated enemy state. To be sure, Iran’s leaders are generally unconcerned about Palestinian well-being per se, but even a faux commitment in Tehran to Palestinian statehood could weaken Israel’s overall safety.

Any formal creation of “Palestine” would be viewed by Iran as favorable to its own regional power position. For Israel, a “Two-State Solution” would enlarge not “only” the jihadi terror threat to Israel (both conventional and unconventional), but also the prospects for a catastrophic regional war. Even if such a war were fought while Iran was still pre-nuclear, Tehran could use radiation dispersal weapons or electromagnetic pulse weapons (EMP) against Israel and/or target Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor with conventional rockets.

In one conspicuously ignored scenario, Iran’s North Korean nuclear ally would engage in direct belligerency against the Jewish State. Should that be allowed (and it would not be without historical precedent), a continuously ambiguous Israeli nuclear posture could fatally undermine Jerusalem’s nuclear deterrent.

In this connection, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations ought never be confined to “general principles.” Instead, specific issues will need to be addressed head-on: borders; Jerusalem; relations between Gaza and the “West Bank;” the Cairo Declaration of June 1974 (an annihilationist “phased plan”); the Arab “right of return” and cancellation of the “Palestine National Charter” (which calls unapologetically for eradication of Israel “in stages”).

Memory will be important. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), “parent” of the extant Palestine Authority (PA), was formed in 1964, three years before there were any “Israel Occupied Territories.” So what, it must be asked, was this terror group seeking to “liberate?”

For Israel, among other things, any justice-based plan for Palestinians would also need to acknowledge the historical and legal rights of the Jewish people in Judea and Samaria. Such an acknowledgment would represent an indispensable corrective to flagrantly lawless Hamas claims of resistance “by any means necessary” and to literally genocidal Palestinian calls for “liberation from the river to the sea.” On its face, the authentic Palestinian expectation is always that Israel become part of “Palestine.”

What about North Korea and future wars in the Middle East? Pyongyang has a documented history of active support for Iran and Syria. On ties with Damascus, it was Kim Jung Un who built the Al Kibar nuclear reactor for the Syrians at Deir al-Zor. This is the same facility that was preemptively destroyed by Israel in its “Operation Orchard” (also known in certain Israeli circles as “Operation Outside the Box”) on September 6, 2007. In the absence of “Orchard,” new post-Assad jihadists in Syria (primarily HTS) would have inherited an already-existing nuclear weapons option.

For Israel, nuclear weapons, doctrine and strategy remain essential to national survival. But the country’s traditional policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” or “bomb in the basement” should immediately be updated.

The key objective of needed changes would be more credible Israeli nuclear deterrence, a goal that would correlate closely with “selective nuclear disclosure.” While counter-intuitive, Iran will need to be convinced that Israel’s nuclear arms are not too destructive for purposeful operational use. In what amounts to an arguably supreme irony, the credibility of Israel’s nuclear deterrent could sometime vary inversely with its presumed destructiveness.

For the moment, Iran should be considered as a rational foe. It remains conceivable, of course, that Iran could still act irrationally, perhaps in alliance with other more-or-less rational states and/or kindred jihadi terror groups, but such prospects ought to be anticipated as exceptional, episodic, or idiosyncratic.

What about non-Arab Pakistan? Unless Jerusalem were to consider Pakistan a genuine enemy, Israel has no present-day nuclear foes. Still, as an unstable Islamic state, Pakistan is continuously subject to coup d’état by jihadi elements and is aligned in various ways with both Saudi Arabia and China. At some point the Sunni Saudi kingdom could decide to “go nuclear” itself, largely because of Iran’s “Shiite” nuclear program.

Would such a consequential decision by Riyadh represent a net gain or net loss for Israel? It’s not too soon to ask this question. Derivatively, Jerusalem should consider potentially correlative decisions by Egypt and Turkey. Facing a nuclearizing Iran, might Israel actually be better off with a simultaneously nuclearizing Egypt and/or Turkey?

On elemental nuclear issues. truth may remain counter-intuitive. For Israeli nuclear deterrence to work longer-term, Iran will need to be told more rather than less about Israel’s nuclear targeting doctrine and the invulnerability of Israel’s nuclear forces/infrastructures.

In concert with such changes, Jerusalem should better clarify its presently too-opaque “Samson Option.” The key objective of such clarifications would not be to suggest Israel’s willingness to die with its belligerent Arab neighbors, but to enhance nuclear deterrence.

For Israel, the risks of Palestinian statehood could prove irreversible, irremediable, and existential. These risks would be enlarged if they were incurred simultaneously with an Israel-Iran war. It follows that Jerusalem’s most basic security obligation should be to keep Iran non–nuclear and to oppose Palestinian statehood in any form. On this obligation, the “whole” would assuredly be greater than the sum of its “parts.”

Long before the current Gaza War, a significant fraction of Palestinians wanted Jews “annihilated.” This unhidden exterminatory sentiment remains rooted in certain canonical hadith, and is specifically quoted in the Hamas Covenant. Regarding the Covenant’s explicit call for genocide of “The Jews”:

… the Islamic Resistance Movement aspires to realize the promise of Allah, no matter how long it takes. The Prophet, Allah’s prayer and peace be upon him, says: “The hour of judgment shall not come until the Muslims fight the Jews, and kill them, so that the Jews hide behind trees and stones, and each tree and stone will say: `Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him…” (Sahih Muslim, Book 41, Number 6985).

There is also an ideological role, as Palestinian and other Islamist terror groups and states use Martyrdom to convince their populations to die in the pursuit of killing Jews. To survive amid multiple synergies, Jerusalem must first learn how to transform an enemy presumption that links “martyrdom” to the conquest of time (and even death).

In Jerusalem and also in Washington, key decision-makers should finally realize that the Jihadist fighter sees himself or herself as a religious sacrifice. Here, each individual foe, whether Sunni or Shiite, aims to escape from profane time. By willfully abandoning the profane clock time that imprison ordinary mortals, the Jihadist slaughters “heathen” and “infidel” in an ecstatically grateful exchange for “immortality.”

In essence, the Jihadist terrorist kills and dies in order to end the sovereignty of unbelievers. When Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists raped, tortured, and murdered Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023, their aim was lascivious and primal; it was not “Palestine.”

The barbarisms of October 7 were not merely sanctioned by several Palestinian authorities. They were undertaken in alleged fulfillment of a divine commandment: “Against them make ready your strength to the utmost of your power, including steeds of war, to strike terror into the hearts of the enemies of God and your enemies, and others besides, whom ye may not know, but whom God doth know.” (Koran 8:60) Also: “But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the pagans wherever ye find them, and seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem of war…” (Koran 9:5)

Going forward on all security fronts, Israeli strategists should also draw systematically on modern lessons of asymmetric warfare. In The Quranic Concept of War (1979), Pakistani Brigadier General S. K. Malik observes: “Terror struck into the hearts of the enemies is not only a means, it is the end in itself. Once a condition of terror into the opponent’s heart is obtained, hardly anything is left to be achieved.”

Nonetheless, when understood in terms of the hazards of Palestinian statehood, the most genuinely overriding threat of jihadi terror would stem from force-multiplying interactions with Iranian nuclearization. It follows that Israeli strategic planners should always approach these threats as synergistic.

Prof. Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books and scholarly articles dealing with international law, nuclear strategy, nuclear war, and terrorism. In Israel, Prof. Beres was Chair of Project Daniel (PM Sharon). His 12th and latest book is Surviving Amid Chaos: Israel’s Nuclear Strategy (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016; 2nd ed., 2018). 

The post Israel and the Middle East: Could There Be a Regional Nuclear War? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students

Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad

Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.

The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.

Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.

A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.

The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.

Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.

The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.

The post Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.

Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.

Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.

“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.

The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.

The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.

Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.

Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.

PRESSURE

Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.

The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.

The post Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy

Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.

There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.

Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.

Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.

“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.

The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.

Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.

The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.

It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.

“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.

“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.

Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.

The post Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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