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Israel Estimates Hezbollah Will Strike Before Iran
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
JNS.org — Israel remains on high alert for potential attacks by Iran and its regional terror proxies, with the security establishment assessing that Hezbollah will strike first.
Both the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese terror army have vowed revenge for the targeted killings last week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah could see a window of opportunity to initiate an attack in the coming days. A large-scale intelligence effort is underway to identify the timing and nature of the response, according to the report.
Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the terror group will retaliate for the Shukr assassination. Several hours before the speech, Al Akhbar, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper in Beirut, published a front-page article suggesting that Hezbollah would likely target Tel Aviv.
The newspaper’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote that Nasrallah believes there is maneuvering room in terms of Israeli civilians because civilians were killed during the Shukr strike in southern Beirut.
“If Hezbollah can choose targets, it is possible that it will target Tel Aviv and civilians might be harmed on the margins. The effective thing will be to hit a significant center of the organization that made the decision about the assassination [of Shukr] and took part in it,” he wrote, as quoted by Axios on Wednesday.
There are several sensitive sites in the Tel Aviv area, including the headquarters of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) and the Mossad, as well as several key military bases in the northern part of the city. The bases are all close to or within civilian neighborhoods.
Israel warns of severe consequences
Jerusalem is not interested in an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but civilian casualties on the Israeli side would cross a red line, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two Israeli officials.
IDF and Israeli Defense Ministry officials have warned their counterparts at the Pentagon and US Central Command (CENTCOM) that since Hezbollah began its cross-border attacks on Oct. 8, its rocket fire has been inaccurate, according to the report.
This was highlighted by the Hezbollah rocket that hit a soccer pitch in the Golan Druze town of Majdal Shams last month, killing 12 children. Hezbollah’s target had been a military base.
The Israeli officials said that the risk involved with long-range surface-to-surface missiles is greater as they carry much larger warheads, with the potential for many more civilian casualties.
“In the internal discussions with the US, Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation,” a senior Israeli official said.
Iran may be reconsidering its attack plans
Meanwhile, Tehran is reportedly reconsidering its level of response against the backdrop of warnings that Israel will counter-attack strongly, Politico reported on Wednesday. The report also cited US officials as saying that while Washington does expect an Iranian response, it might not happen in the near future.
Intensive American diplomacy and an increased military posture in the Middle East may have also prompted Tehran to reconsider a major retaliatory strike against Israel, according to The Washington Post.
Another factor in Iran’s decision-making may be new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
According to a report in the London-based Iran International, Pezeshkian has pleaded with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that it could threaten his presidency and lead to devastation of Iran’s infrastructure, energy and economy.
Pezeshkian reportedly told the supreme leader that a harsh Israeli counter-attack could lead to the collapse of the regime.
However, “despite the grave warnings … Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns,” according to the report.
Israel continues preparations for attacks
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF Home Front Command on Wednesday to discuss plans for warning citizens of any impending attack and giving emergency instructions to the public.
On Sunday, the Home Front Command unveiled a new technology to warn civilians in the case of a large-scale national emergency, similar to the U.S. Wireless Emergency Alerts system.
The “personal message” alert technology allows the army to notify all cell phones in a specific area without the need for any action on citizens’ part. The warning notification will be immediately displayed on mobile phone screens, accompanied by a loud ringtone.
Home Front Command has also moved search and rescue forces to Tel Aviv and other cities in preparation for potential Iranian and Hezbollah attacks, the IDF said on Tuesday.
The Ram Battalion (668) of the IDF’s Search and Rescue Brigade (60th) has repositioned itself in Tel Aviv, the economic and cultural hub of Israel along the central Mediterranean coastline.
The Ram Battalion would respond to any building collapses or other destruction.
According to the IDF, rapid rescue teams have also been deployed to Haifa, the Haifa bay area and several cities in the south and center of the country.
Some Israeli municipalities are preparing to turn underground parking lots into emergency shelters in the event of a sustained wave of attacks from Iran and its terror proxies.
David Aharoni, director of the security and emergency department at the Tel Aviv Municipality, told Channel 12 that residents are encouraged to first use the private shelters in the buildings, and then if they are outside, public shelters maintained by the municipality or in shelters in schools and community centers.
The post Israel Estimates Hezbollah Will Strike Before Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Obituary: Elexis Schloss, 78, an Edmonton entrepreneur and philanthropist who also performed quiet acts of kindness
Elexis (Conn) Schloss, a vibrant entrepreneur and philanthropist who supported a wide array of causes, both in and beyond Edmonton, died in Victoria on Oct. 31. She was 78. Her […]
The post Obituary: Elexis Schloss, 78, an Edmonton entrepreneur and philanthropist who also performed quiet acts of kindness appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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Saudi Arabia Ups Anti-Israel Rhetoric Amid Iran Rapprochement, Raising Questions About Abraham Accords Expansion
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a virtual cabinet meeting from his office in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 28, 2024. Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler accused the Israeli military of committing “collective genocide” in Gaza while also pressing Israel to respect Iranian sovereignty, amid reports that Tehran has postponed its planned attack on the Jewish state.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s remarks, made in Riyadh on Monday during a summit of leaders of Islamic nations, underscored the evolving rapprochement between the erstwhile archenemies Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The crown prince, also known by his initials MBS, urged the international community to demand that Israel “respect the sovereignty of the sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran and not to violate its lands.”
The two regional heavyweights restored relations last year after decades of animosity.
MBS’s anti-Israel rhetoric came days after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. For Israel, the statement from Riyadh may signal a setback to the normalization process with Saudi Arabia, a long-sought goal within the framework of the Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump during his first term in the White House, that has seen Israel establish formal ties with several Arab states in recent years.
According to a Sky News Arabia report published two days later and citing Iranian officials, Tehran has shelved a planned third direct strike on Israel, with the delay attributed to possible forthcoming diplomatic talks with Trump. Israel Hayom published a similar report the following day, citing officials in Jerusalem familiar with the matter.
Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref expressed his hope that the incoming Trump administration would put a stop to Israel’s campaigns against its terrorist proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The American government is the main supporter of the actions of the Zionist regime [Israel], and the world is waiting for the promise of the new government of this country to immediately stop the war against the innocent people of Gaza and Lebanon,” Aref said at Monday’s gathering.
Observers noted that Saudi Arabia’s shift could stem from both domestic and regional considerations. For the kingdom, improving relations with Iran is a strategic move to de-escalate conflicts in Yemen, where both countries have backed opposing sides. By opening diplomatic channels with Iran, Saudi Arabia also aims to reduce its dependence on Western security guarantees amid growing regional autonomy. According to Dr. Eyal Pinko, a Middle East expert who served in Israeli intelligence for more than three decades, Saudi Arabia is also under pressure from France, a major arms supplier, to maintain a moderate stance and promote regional peace.
“Saudi Arabia understands [it] cannot rely on the Americans” for arms, Pinko told The Algemeiner.
For its part, Iran may be seeking closer ties with the Gulf kingdom as a result of recent Israeli operations that have decimated the senior leadership of Hezbollah, Iran’s most influential proxy in the Arab world that has long served as a strategic partner.
“Iran is spreading its bets all around, not to be on one side or another,” Pinko said.
Hezbollah, along with Hamas in Gaza, had in the past been blacklisted as terrorist groups by Riyadh.
The New York Times last month cited a Saudi tycoon with ties to the monarchy as saying that the war in Gaza has “set back any Israeli integration into the region.”
“Saudi Arabia sees that any association with Israel has become more toxic since Gaza,” Ali Shihabi told the newspaper.
In another blow for Saudi-Israel relations, Riyadh announced it would revoke the license of the Saudi news broadcaster, MBC, after it labeled the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar a terrorist.
But according to Pinko, the chance of Saudi-Israel normalization is not entirely lost, pending a ceasefire.
“If nothing extreme happens with Iran until Jan. 20 [when Trump takes office], I believe that the Abraham Accords will come back to the table,” he said.
The post Saudi Arabia Ups Anti-Israel Rhetoric Amid Iran Rapprochement, Raising Questions About Abraham Accords Expansion first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Germany Opposes EU Foreign Policy Chief’s Proposal to Suspend Dialogue With Israel
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaks during a session of the lower house of parliament Bundestag, in Berlin, Germany, Oct. 10, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Lisi Niesner
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday publicly rejected a proposal by the European Union’s foreign policy chief to suspend regular political dialogue with Israel in response to the Jewish state’s ongoing military campaign against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.
“We are always in favor of keeping channels of dialogue open. Of course, this also applies to Israel,” the German Foreign Office said of top EU official Josep Borrell’s plans, according to the German news agency dpa.
The Foreign Office added that, while the political conversations under the EU-Israel Association Council provide a regular opportunity to strengthen relations and, in recent months, discuss the provision of humanitarian aid to Gaza, severing that mechanism would be counterproductive.
“Breaking off dialogue, however, will not help anyone, neither the suffering people in Gaza, nor the hostages who are still being held by Hamas, nor all those in Israel who are committed to dialogue,” the statement continued.
Borrell on Wednesday proposed the suspension of dialogue in a letter to EU foreign ministers ahead of their meeting this coming Monday in Brussels, citing “serious concerns about possible breaches of international humanitarian law in Gaza.” He also wrote, “Thus far, these concerns have not been sufficiently addressed by Israel.”
The regular dialogues that Borrell is seeking to break off were enshrined in a broader agreement on relations between the EU and Israel, including extensive trade ties, that was implemented in 2000.
“In light of the above considerations, I will be tabling a proposal that the EU should invoke the human rights clause to suspend the political dialogue with Israel,” Borrell wrote.
A suspension would need the approval of all 27 EU countries, an unlikely outcome. According to Reuters, multiple countries objected when a senior EU official briefed ambassadors in Brussels on the proposal on Wednesday.
While some EU countries, such as Spain and Ireland, have been fiercely critical of Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, others such as the Czech Republic and Hungary have been more supportive.
Hamas, which rules Gaza, launched the ongoing conflict with its invasion of southern Israel last Oct. 7. During the onslaught, Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists murdered 1,200 people, wounded thousands more, and kidnapped over 250 hostages while perpetrating mass sexual violence and other atrocities.
Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
Israel says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties, noting its efforts to evacuate areas before it targets them and to warn residents of impending military operations with leaflets, text messages, and other forms of communication. However, Hamas has in many cases prevented people from leaving, according to the Israeli military.
Another challenge for Israel is Hamas’s widely recognized military strategy of embedding its terrorists within Gaza’s civilian population and commandeering civilian facilities like hospitals, schools, and mosques to run operations, direct attacks, and store weapons.
Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said last month that Israel has delivered over 1 million tons of aid, including 700,000 tons of food, to Gaza since it launched its military operation a year ago. He also noted that Hamas terrorists often hijack and steal aid shipments while fellow Palestinians suffer.
The Israeli government has ramped up the supply of humanitarian aid into Gaza in recent weeks under pressure from the United States, which has expressed concern about the plight of civilians in the war-torn enclave.
Meanwhile, Borrell has been one of the EU’s most outspoken critics of Israel over the past year. Just six weeks after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks, he drew a moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas while speaking to the European Parliament, accusing both of having carried out “massacres” while insisting that it is possible to criticize Israeli actions “without being accused of not liking the Jews.”
Borrell’s speech followed a visit to the Middle East the prior week. While in Israel, he delivered what the Spanish daily El Pais described as the “most critical message heard so far from a representative of the European Union regarding Israel’s response to the Hamas attack of Oct. 7.”
“Not far from here is Gaza. One horror does not justify another,” Borrell said at a joint press conference alongside then-Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. “I understand your rage. But let me ask you not to let yourself be consumed by rage. I think that is what the best friends of Israel can tell you, because what makes the difference between a civilized society and a terrorist group is the respect for human life. All human lives have the same value.”
Months later, in March of this year, Borrell claimed that Israel was imposing a famine on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and using starvation as a weapon of war. His comments came a few months before the United Nations Famine Review Committee (FRC), a panel of experts in international food security and nutrition, rejected the assertion that northern Gaza was experiencing famine, citing a lack of evidence. Borrell’s comments prompted outrage from Israel.
In August, Borrell pushed EU member states to impose sanctions on some Israeli ministers.
Monday’s meeting in Brussels will be the last that Borrell will chair before ending his five-year term as the EU’s foreign policy chief.
The post Germany Opposes EU Foreign Policy Chief’s Proposal to Suspend Dialogue With Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.