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Israel Estimates Hezbollah Will Strike Before Iran
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
JNS.org — Israel remains on high alert for potential attacks by Iran and its regional terror proxies, with the security establishment assessing that Hezbollah will strike first.
Both the Islamic Republic and its Lebanese terror army have vowed revenge for the targeted killings last week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and senior Hezbollah official Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah could see a window of opportunity to initiate an attack in the coming days. A large-scale intelligence effort is underway to identify the timing and nature of the response, according to the report.
Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the terror group will retaliate for the Shukr assassination. Several hours before the speech, Al Akhbar, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper in Beirut, published a front-page article suggesting that Hezbollah would likely target Tel Aviv.
The newspaper’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin wrote that Nasrallah believes there is maneuvering room in terms of Israeli civilians because civilians were killed during the Shukr strike in southern Beirut.
“If Hezbollah can choose targets, it is possible that it will target Tel Aviv and civilians might be harmed on the margins. The effective thing will be to hit a significant center of the organization that made the decision about the assassination [of Shukr] and took part in it,” he wrote, as quoted by Axios on Wednesday.
There are several sensitive sites in the Tel Aviv area, including the headquarters of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) and the Mossad, as well as several key military bases in the northern part of the city. The bases are all close to or within civilian neighborhoods.
Israel warns of severe consequences
Jerusalem is not interested in an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but civilian casualties on the Israeli side would cross a red line, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two Israeli officials.
IDF and Israeli Defense Ministry officials have warned their counterparts at the Pentagon and US Central Command (CENTCOM) that since Hezbollah began its cross-border attacks on Oct. 8, its rocket fire has been inaccurate, according to the report.
This was highlighted by the Hezbollah rocket that hit a soccer pitch in the Golan Druze town of Majdal Shams last month, killing 12 children. Hezbollah’s target had been a military base.
The Israeli officials said that the risk involved with long-range surface-to-surface missiles is greater as they carry much larger warheads, with the potential for many more civilian casualties.
“In the internal discussions with the US, Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation,” a senior Israeli official said.
Iran may be reconsidering its attack plans
Meanwhile, Tehran is reportedly reconsidering its level of response against the backdrop of warnings that Israel will counter-attack strongly, Politico reported on Wednesday. The report also cited US officials as saying that while Washington does expect an Iranian response, it might not happen in the near future.
Intensive American diplomacy and an increased military posture in the Middle East may have also prompted Tehran to reconsider a major retaliatory strike against Israel, according to The Washington Post.
Another factor in Iran’s decision-making may be new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
According to a report in the London-based Iran International, Pezeshkian has pleaded with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to avoid a direct attack on Israel, warning that it could threaten his presidency and lead to devastation of Iran’s infrastructure, energy and economy.
Pezeshkian reportedly told the supreme leader that a harsh Israeli counter-attack could lead to the collapse of the regime.
However, “despite the grave warnings … Khamenei remained noncommittal during the session, neither supporting nor opposing Pezeshkian’s concerns,” according to the report.
Israel continues preparations for attacks
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited IDF Home Front Command on Wednesday to discuss plans for warning citizens of any impending attack and giving emergency instructions to the public.
On Sunday, the Home Front Command unveiled a new technology to warn civilians in the case of a large-scale national emergency, similar to the U.S. Wireless Emergency Alerts system.
The “personal message” alert technology allows the army to notify all cell phones in a specific area without the need for any action on citizens’ part. The warning notification will be immediately displayed on mobile phone screens, accompanied by a loud ringtone.
Home Front Command has also moved search and rescue forces to Tel Aviv and other cities in preparation for potential Iranian and Hezbollah attacks, the IDF said on Tuesday.
The Ram Battalion (668) of the IDF’s Search and Rescue Brigade (60th) has repositioned itself in Tel Aviv, the economic and cultural hub of Israel along the central Mediterranean coastline.
The Ram Battalion would respond to any building collapses or other destruction.
According to the IDF, rapid rescue teams have also been deployed to Haifa, the Haifa bay area and several cities in the south and center of the country.
Some Israeli municipalities are preparing to turn underground parking lots into emergency shelters in the event of a sustained wave of attacks from Iran and its terror proxies.
David Aharoni, director of the security and emergency department at the Tel Aviv Municipality, told Channel 12 that residents are encouraged to first use the private shelters in the buildings, and then if they are outside, public shelters maintained by the municipality or in shelters in schools and community centers.
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Top US General Makes Unannounced Middle East Trip as Iran Threat Looms
US Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaks at a conference of African chiefs of defense in Gaborone, Botswana on June 25, 2024, the first time a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the top U.S. military officer, has visited sub-Saharan Africa in 30 years, according to the Pentagon. Photo: REUTERS/Phil Stewart/File Photo
The top US general began an unannounced visit to the Middle East on Saturday to discuss ways to avoid any new escalation in tensions that could spiral into a broader conflict, as the region braces for a threatened Iranian attack against Israel.
Air Force General C.Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, began his trip in Jordan and said he will also travel to Egypt and Israel in the coming days to hear the perspectives of military leaders.
His visit comes as the United States is trying to clinch an elusive Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, which Brown said would “help bring down the temperature,” if achieved.
“At the same time, as I talk to my counterparts, what are the things we can do to deter any type of broader escalation and ensure we’re taking all the appropriate steps to (avoid) … a broader conflict,” Brown told Reuters before landing in Jordan.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has been seeking to limit the fallout from the war in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, now in its 11th month. The conflict has leveled huge swathes of Gaza, triggered border clashes between Israel and Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement and sparked attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Red Sea shipping.
Meanwhile, US troops have been attacked by Iran-aligned militia in Syria, Iraq and Jordan. In recent weeks, the U.S. military has been bolstering its forces in the Middle East to guard against major new attacks by Iran or its allies, sending the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into the region to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.
The United States has also sent an Air Force F-22 Raptor squadron into the region and deployed a cruise missile submarine.
“We brought in additional capability to send a strong message to deter a broader conflict … but also to protect our forces should they be attacked,” Brown said, saying safeguarding American forces was “paramount.”
IRANIAN RESPONSE
Iran has vowed a severe response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement.
Hezbollah has also threatened a response after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut last month.
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination but U.S. officials say they are closely monitoring for any signs that Iran will make good on its threats.
“We stay postured, watching the (intelligence) and force movements,” Brown said. On Friday, Iran’s new Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his French and British counterparts in telephone conversations that it was his country’s right to retaliate, according to the official IRNA news agency.
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two air bases. Israel, the United States and other allies managed to destroy almost all of the weapons before they reached their targets.
Brown did not speculate about what Iran and its allies might do but said he hoped to discuss different scenarios with his Israeli counterpart.
“Particularly, as I engage with my Israeli counterpart, how they might respond, depending on the response that comes from Hezbollah or from Iran,” Brown said.
The current war in the Gaza Strip began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists stormed into Israeli communities, killing around 1,200 people and abducting about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
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Gaza Talks Resume in Cairo
Illustrative. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian meets with Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, in Tehran, Iran July 6, 2022. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS.
Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiators discussed new compromise proposals in Cairo on Saturday, seeking to bridge gaps between Israel and Hamas as the UN reported worsening humanitarian conditions, with malnutrition soaring and polio discovered in the Palestinian enclave.
A Hamas delegation arrived on Saturday to be nearer at hand to review any proposals that emerge in the main talks between Israel and the mediating countries Egypt, Qatar and the United States, two Egyptian security sources said.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was expected to attend.
A US official said negotiators from the United States met with Egypt then bilaterally with Egypt and Qatar on Saturday, and believed that representatives from Egypt and Qatar were meeting with Hamas.
Months of on-off talks have failed to produce a breakthrough to end Israel’s military campaign in Gaza or free the remaining hostages seized by Hamas in the terrorist group’s Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war.
The Egyptian sources said the new proposals include compromises on outstanding points such as how to secure key areas and the return of people to north Gaza.
However there was no sign of any breakthrough on key sticking points, including Israel’s insistence that it must retain control of the so-called Philadelphi Corridor, on the border between Gaza and Egypt.
Hamas has accused Israel of going back on things it had previously agreed to in the talks, which Israel denies. The group says the United States is not mediating in good faith.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has locked horns with Israeli ceasefire negotiators over whether Israeli troops must remain all along the border between Gaza and Egypt, a person with knowledge of the talks said.
A Palestinian official familiar with mediation efforts said it was too soon to predict the outcome of talks.
“Hamas is there to discuss the outcome of the mediators’ talks with the Israeli officials and whether there is enough to suggest a change in the Netanyahu stance about reaching a deal,” the official said.
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Soldier Killed in Central Gaza, Bringing IDF Death Toll to 696
Sgt. First Class (res.) Evyatar Atuar was killed in action in Gaza City, Aug. 23, 2024. Photo: IDF.
JNS.org – An Israel Defense Forces soldier was killed and several others were wounded on Friday morning when Hamas terrorists detonated an explosive device in Gaza City.
The slain soldier was named as Sgt. First Class (res.) Evyatar Atuar, 24, of the 16th “Jerusalem” Infantry Brigade’s 6310th Battalion, from Rosh Haayin.
The brigade, part of the 252nd “Sinai” Division, was involved in expanding the IDF’s Netzarim Corridor, which separates Gaza’s north and south.
According to an initial probe, terrorists remote-detonated a bomb planted on a building’s outer wall after soldiers had entered to search it in the Zeitoun neighborhood.
At least four soldiers outside the structure were seriously wounded and three others were moderately hurt, the IDF said.
On Thursday, Sgt. Ori Ashkenazi Nechemya, 19, a member of the 401st Armored Brigade’s 46th Battalion, was killed battling Hamas terrorists in the southern Gaza Strip.
A preliminary probe found that he was killed by anti-tank missile fire in Rafah.
Earlier this week, Lt. Shahar Ben Nun, 21, from the Paratrooper Brigade’s Reconnaissance Battalion, was killed by an IAF missile that malfunctioned during a strike in southern Gaza.
The death toll among Israeli troops since the start of the Gaza ground incursion on Oct. 27 now stands at 333, and at 696 on all fronts since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 massacre, according to official military data.
Additionally, Ch. Insp. Arnon Zamora, a member of the Border Police’s Yamam National Counter-Terrorism Unit, was fatally wounded during a hostage-rescue mission in Gaza in June, and civilian defense contractor Liron Yitzhak was mortally wounded in May.
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