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Israel’s Struggle for Survival in the North Is Existential
People rush to a soccer field hit by a Hezbollah rocket in the majority-Druze northern Israeli town Majdal Shams Photo: Via 924, from social media used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law
Recent weeks have seen a spate of vigorous Israeli defense measures against the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah, which have drawn interest from around the world.
Just last week, the IDF bombed Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut, killing Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah.
Nasrallah’s bloody reign over the past 40 years led to the death of not only Israelis, but also Americans, Syrians, and Lebanese people.
While many people know that Hezbollah is a military proxy of Iran, and that it has targeted Jews around the world, the Israeli actions over the past few weeks caught many by surprise.
So what are the roots of this conflict, and why is it coming to the fore now?
On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah launched rocket and mortar attacks on Israel, in what it called “solidarity” with the Gaza-based Hamas. On the previous day, Hamas murdered approximately 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped another 240, in the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.
Israel, it must be repeated, is a small country about the size of New Jersey.
From the Mediterranean near Tel Aviv to Judea and Samaria, Israel’s width is about 9 miles — walkable in two hours at a brisk pace.
From a military perspective, Israel has no strategic depth. This means that Israel cannot withdraw behind its frontiers and absorb an enemy blow before gathering its strength and responding, as a large nation might.
What is sometimes forgotten overseas, but never in Israel, is that Hezbollah’s continuing attacks on Israel’s North affected the country’s lived reality over time — perhaps even more than Hamas’ attack in the South.
In the past year, Hezbollah has launched more than 8,000 rockets at Israeli cities and military targets. More than 21,500 acres in the Galilee and Golan Heights, much of them forest preserves, have been burnt by fires sparked by Hezbollah rockets.
As a result of the incessant bombardment, more than 60,000 Israelis are internally displaced from Israel’s North, down from 100,000 earlier this year.
Agriculture is devastated in this region, which accounts for about a third of Israel’s agricultural lands, and about 73% of its domestic egg production. Kiryat Shmona, with a prewar population of over 20,000 and a major incubator for food tech startups, is down to 20% of its population from last year, with those remaining hunkered down against the incoming Hezbollah missiles.
Worst of all, Hezbollah is also targeting and killing civilians on the Israeli side of the border, including 12 children playing soccer in the Golani village of Majdal Shams.
Unfortunately, every Israeli also knows that this situation could worsen. In 2006, Israelis spent a wartime summer in bomb shelters, reminding many of the London Blitz. Hezbollah is still believed to possess an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, and is specifically training its “Radwan Forces” for a ground invasion of northern Israel, intended to be similar to October 7.
Israel has responded with a series of highly targeted strikes to downgrade Hezbollah’s ability to commit atrocities against Israeli civilians, short of a full-scale war.
On July 30, Israel eliminated Fuad Shukr, who played a central role in Hezbollah’s 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 US servicemen and women. For his long standing crimes against Americans and others, the US State Department was offering a reward of up to $5 million for tips on Shukr’s whereabouts, which the US government can now use for something else.
On September 20, 2024, Israel conducted an airstrike in Beirut, eliminating senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil, along with 15 other top commanders. Aqil had been orchestrating immediate plans for a large-scale Hezbollah invasion of northern Israel, and had ties to the 1983 US embassy bombing in Beirut.
Most dramatically of all, in a move right out of a spy thriller, on September 17 and 18, a series of explosions rocked Hezbollah’s communications network. This surgical strike exclusively impacted devices belonging to members of the terror network.
Thousands of pagers (on the 17th) and walkie-talkies (on the 18th) equipped with explosives detonated, killing at least 37 Hezbollah operatives and wounding thousands more. Though Israel didn’t claim responsibility, Hezbollah vowed retaliation.
Another crucial element here is the weak Lebanese state.
After Hezbollah assassinated Lebanon’s Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005, the Syrian army was forced by popular outrage to withdraw from its occupation of Lebanon.
However, Hezbollah refused to budge, and started a war with Israel the following year. In 2011, Hezbollah saved Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad from being overthrown by his people, helping him brutally slaughter over 500,000 Syrian civilians.
Israel is a small country, Lebanon is a weak one, and Iran — Hezbollah’s master — believes that this is a moment of Western weakness and navel-gazing, the perfect chance to commit atrocities that would never be possible in ordinary times.
As Hamas did on October 7, Hezbollah has indicated that it would commit genocidal acts against Israeli civilians, given the chance.
Israel is defending itself to ensure that this never happens — as any other country in the world would do, and as every other country in the world should support.
Hen Mazzig is an Israeli writer, speaker, and Senior Fellow at the Tel Aviv Institute. He’s appeared as an expert on Israel, antisemitism, and social media in the BBC, NBC News, LA Times, Newsweek, and more. Follow him on: @henmazzig
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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