Hamas fighters on Feb. 22, 2025. Photo: Majdi Fathi via Reuters Connect

The Hamas terror organization has a weapon that can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat: the fact that Western democracies want the illusion of success, but will never follow through on what is required to achieve it. That’s what’s happening right now at the United Nations.

The UN Security Council is preparing to vote this month on the future of Gaza, a plan that requires Hamas to disarm.

The terror organization is “cooperating” by declaring it will give up “offensive” weapons, but not “defensive” weapons — whatever that means. Hamas knows it’s not truly fooling the Security Council. Rather it’s giving Western democracies the opportunity to say to their constituents, “we’ve disarmed Hamas,” without actually disarming it.

The Security Council’s plan involves international stabilization forces, meant to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and political future.

Hamas is already arranging to quietly choose the stabilization force’s leadership, thus maintaining its power regardless of who pretends to take charge. The West just might accept this, in order to avoid a bloody conflict between stabilization forces and a still armed and active Hamas. The only other option would be the hard and dangerous work of true disarmament, which Western democracies tend to avoid.

Hamas’ strategy works because Western democracies relish the opportunity to declare “success,” knowing that if and when an arrangement falls apart, it will be after the next election cycle, and somebody else’s problem.

When I was a child, the neighborhood kids had a slang expression for bad ideas: “let’s not, and say we did.” For example, your immature friend might say, “hey let’s go throw rocks at pigeons,” and you’d respond, “let’s not, and say we did.”

This is exactly the philosophy that Hamas is proposing to the Western world: let’s not disarm, let’s not rebuild, let’s not stabilize — but say we did.

Winston Churchill famously said, “democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” Indeed, life under democracy beats dictatorships and terror regimes any day of the week, but there’s a downside that occurs when democratic “leaders” follow the whims of a largely uninformed public, even on complex questions that require real expertise. The time horizon for “success” is sometimes no longer than the next midterms, and many decisions are therefore not only short term, but superficial and dangerous, like covering up a crumbling foundation with a fresh coat of paint.

This thinking characterized the JCPOA, also known as the 2015 Iran “Nuclear Deal.” The Nuclear Deal gave the Islamic Republic of Iran access to significant cash and time, which it used to advance the very nuclear program it was supposed to give up. The same resources also helped Iran fund its terror proxies throughout the Middle East.

This philosophy also motivated a bizarre idea in the 1990s to essentially pay North Korea to not develop nuclear weapons. Pyongyang, predictably, accepted billions of dollars in aid and sanctions relief, and then successfully tested its first nuclear bomb just a few years later.

How is it possible for such an obvious game to fool the West?

The key is to present a seductive (and dishonest) narrative that the public wants to believe.

North Korea, for example, sold the idea that its push for nuclear weapons had resulted from poverty and desperation. The poverty was real, the logic was not. The West enthusiastically jumped on the idea that it could resolve everything by giving North Korea aid, fuel, and sanctions relief. The “solution” was meant to look easy, elegant, and most of all, to sound great in the next State of the Union address. And it did — though it required utterly ignoring North Korea’s openly stated goal to “blast the United States from the face of the Earth.”

Similarly, Iran claimed to seek nuclear capacity only for “peaceful purposes,” and objected to Western “bullying,” thus tapping into the West’s aversion to war and its adulation of negotiations and diplomacy.

This narrative worked not because it fooled most experts, but primarily because much of the voting public wanted to believe it. Much like in the case of North Korea, this delusion required ignoring routine chants of “Death to America” in the Iranian parliament, not to mention that Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program was, suspiciously, hidden under a mountain.

Even Israel, a country typically more savvy than most (out of existential necessity) is not entirely immune.

For decades, terror groups including Hamas, sold the idea that terrorism is the result of poverty and desperation rather than ideology: the old North Korea trick. The “solution”? Flood Gaza with aid, including Qatari cash. According to non-public sources in Israel’s COGAT unit (which handles coordination with the Palestinian territories), Hamas modulated its terror activity up and down in response to how much cash came into Gaza — thus reinforcing the narrative.

Even entrepreneur-turned-politician Naftali Bennett, Israel’s loudest critic of sending Hamas “suitcases full of cash,” did essentially the same thing once he became Prime Minister himself.

The terror group’s publicly declared raison d’être (annihilating Israel and wiping out all Jews) was minimized or ignored. The narrative was just too seductive, and the alternative (all out war) was unacceptable to much of the Israeli public. In the end, all out war happened anyway: beginning in the most horrific possible way, with Hamas’ massacre on October 7, 2023.

In fairness to Israel, the relative quiet before October 7 filled a deep social and emotional need for the war-weary Israeli people, and enabled the country to build significant prosperity and resources — which proved vital to Israel’s economic resilience during its two year “combat marathon,” which continues even now.

Despite some conspiracy theories to the contrary, Israel’s mistakes do not “cause” Hamas’ violence, any more than America “caused” Iran or North Korea’s hatred and nuclear ambitions. To the contrary, the entire Western world tries constantly to balance the need for day-to-day quiet and prosperity against the need for long-term safety. Both priorities are important, yet when the West blunders in trying to achieve this balance, its enemies are quick to take advantage.

In a recent article, I discussed why Israel and Hamas are likely to resume combat. In summary: every element of peace, including international stabilization forces and reconstruction, is impossible until Hamas disarms and dismantles its power structure; but Hamas is ideologically incapable of doing so voluntarily. (The article is a thorough deep dive, and well worth checking out!)

Israel is now raising concerns about the proposed UN framework – in short, the plan appears to encapsulate the principle of “let’s not, and say we did”: let’s not disarm Hamas, let’s not make a meaningful change in Gaza, let’s not make the world any more peaceful or any more safe — but say we did.

Yet there is hope.

Last April, US President Donald Trump gave Iran 60 days to negotiate the dismantling of its nuclear program. Israelis saw this as a mistake, fearing that Trump had fallen into the same trap that seduced former Presidents Obama and Biden: allowing Iran to play for time as it races toward “the Bomb.” Yet immediately after the deadline, rather than allowing extensions, Trump and Israel coordinated a devastating attack on Iran’s nuclear program, achieving in 12 days what years of negotiations had not.

Two years ago, Israel learned the real cost of willful blindness in the most painful possible way, and now insists on nothing less than true safety. For his part, Trump learned last June that negotiation can sometimes be useless and dangerous, whereas appropriate military action can be both limited and effective.

Between Israel’s hard-won wisdom, and Trump’s recent history of learning from prior mistakes, the world just may stand a chance of defeating Hamas after all. Yet if Hamas wins (and it very well might), the philosophy of “let’s not, and say we did” will be the reason why.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.

A Palestinian man points a weapon in the air after it was announced that Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire, in the central Gaza Strip, October 9. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa

For a fleeting moment, the world let itself believe.

After the Trump-brokered ceasefire, the one celebrated as the end of bloodshed and the beginning of calm, there was cautious optimism that Israel could finally exhale. But peace in the Middle East has always been a mirage: radiant from afar, yet dissolving upon approach.

Donald Trump deserves credit for the Abraham Accords, which transformed Israel’s regional relationships and broke decades of diplomatic stagnation. Yet even the most pragmatic dealmaker cannot change one immutable truth: you cannot negotiate peace with those whose very identity depends on your destruction.

That is where the illusion began to crack.

Qatar: The Wolf in Diplomat’s Clothing

Trump’s agreement allowed Qatar, second only to Iran in global terror financing, to position itself as a “mediator” in Gaza. That was a dangerous miscalculation.

Qatar remains Hamas’ financial lifeline and ideological patron. Its luxury hotels host the terror group’s leadership; its Al Jazeera network fuels anti-Israel incitement under the banner of journalism; and its so-called “humanitarian aid” routinely ends up funding rockets and tunnels.

This is not diplomacy. This is deception funded by petrodollars.

Even more troubling is that Qatar’s influence has been quietly purchased through immense financial leverage, including high-profile “gifts” to Western leaders and institutions. Whether by coincidence or design, criticism of the Qatari regime often disappears just as quickly as its checks clear.

Israel: Targeted by Rockets and Lies

The outcome of this naïve diplomacy is now plain to see. Israel is not just under fire from missiles; it is under siege by propaganda. The Pallywood machine, amplified by Western media and digital armies of bots, has turned moral reality upside down: the attacker becomes the victim, the defender the villain.

Each time Israel protects its citizens, the world demands “proportion.” As if proportionality exists when terrorists massacre families, rape women, and burn children alive. Meanwhile, antisemitic mobs march in Western capitals, cloaking genocidal chants in the language of “resistance.”

And as Hezbollah rattles its sabers in Lebanon, President Joseph Aoun orders troops to confront so-called Israeli “incursions,” undermining even US-brokered calm. Hezbollah’s intentions are clear; not defense, but destruction. Their “right to resist” is a euphemism for preparing another war.

The New “Peacekeepers,” A Powder Keg in Disguise

Israeli analysts now warn that the growing coordination between Egypt and Saudi Arabia could reshape the region’s power map. Together, they hold two of the Middle East’s largest armies. Their new “security cooperation,” hailed abroad as progress, may in fact be laying the groundwork for future confrontation.

History is painfully clear: when Israel’s adversaries begin to coordinate, it is usually not about maintaining balance but preparing for the next round. And this time, the stakes are higher. Iran and its proxies are emboldened, Western resolve is fading, and global antisemitism is again spreading like wildfire.

The World Forgets and Then Blames

How quickly the world unlearns history. The same governments that ignored years of Hamas rockets now preach “restraint.” The same human rights groups that said nothing about Hamas using hospitals as military bases now accuse Israel of war crimes. The same media that glorified “resistance fighters” now scolds Israel for defending its children.

This hypocrisy is not new. It echoes the cowardice of the 1930s, when silence greeted Jewish suffering, and blame was always redirected toward the Jew. Because at its core, this is not about geopolitics or policy. It’s about hate wearing the mask of morality.

Israel has never asked the world for pity, only for honesty. And its survival, against all odds, remains a moral compass for the entire world. You can destroy homes, you can burn cities, but you cannot erase a people whose identity is bound to hope, memory, and faith.

So when the world asks, “Who believed the war was over?” The answer is simple: only those who have forgotten history.

Because Israel has never had the luxury of illusion, only the duty to survive. And it will

Sabine Sterk is the CEO of Time To Stand Up For Israel.

(JTA) — U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said violence in the West Bank, which is surging, could undercut the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, which the United States is working to preserve.

“Certainly there’s some concern about events in the West Bank spilling over and creating an effect that could undermine what we’re doing in Gaza,” Rubio told reporters on Wednesday.

The comments offer a stark confirmation that U.S. officials are paying attention with alarm to conditions in the West Bank, where Israeli settlers have increased their pace of attacks on Palestinians in recent months.

Masked settlers attacked Palestinians in two villages on Wednesday, drawing an unusual rebuke from Israel’s president.

“The harsh events that took place this evening in the Shomron by a handful of violent and dangerous individuals are shocking and serious,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a statement in Hebrew on X. “Such violence against civilians and against IDF soldiers crosses a red line and I condemn it severely. All state authorities must act decisively to eradicate the phenomenon and to strengthen the IDF fighters and security forces who protect us day and night.”

The incident comes amid near-daily attacks by settlers on Palestinian villages, which watchdogs say is contributing to unprecedented displacement of West Bank Palestinians. Last week, settlers targeted a group of American Jewish activists who came to the West Bank to protect Palestinians harvesting olives. One settler was reportedly dismissed from reserve duty in the Israeli army following the clash, in which he fired a gun. In a separate incident, two American Jewish women were deported and barred from Israel for 10 years over their participation in a solidarity mission.

The post Marco Rubio warns that violence in the West Bank could threaten Gaza truce appeared first on The Forward.