Chinese Foreign Minister Wag Yi stands with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi before a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear issue at Diaoyutai State Guest House on March 14, 2025 in Beijing, China. Photo: Pool via REUTERS
As Iran continues to face major crises both at home and abroad, its ties to China and Russia are proving far weaker than they seem, leaving the regime to confront the fallout largely on its own, according to a new study.
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), an Israeli think tank, has released a report examining how the 12-day war with Israel in June exposed the limits of Iran’s alliances with China and Russia.
In the study, authors Raz Zimmt and Danny Citrinowicz note that both China and Russia favored cautious diplomacy over direct support at a time when the Iranian regime was most vulnerable.
“The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran,” the report explains.
“It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States,” it continues.
Earlier this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to Beijing, joining Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, as the three nations aim to project a united front against the West.
The high-profile gathering came after Pezeshkian and Putin held talks in China on Monday on the sidelines of the 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin.
During a joint press conference, the Iranian president hailed Tehran’s cooperation with Moscow as “highly valuable,” adding that continued implementation of their 20-year treaty signed earlier this year would further strengthen ties and expand collaboration.
Putin also noted that the relationship between the two countries is “growing increasingly friendly and expanding” amid mounting pressure and sanctions from Western countries.
According to Zimmt and Citrinowicz, Iran has little room to maneuver, even more so now as the regime faces the imminent threat of UN sanctions being reimposed due to efforts by Britain, France, and Germany, forcing it to rely on its fragile alliances with Russia and China.
“It is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership, as limited as it may be, with Russia and China, especially given the escalating tensions between Tehran and Europe,” the paper explains.
“Likewise, Russia and China, who view Iran as a junior partner in a coalition against the West and the United States, have no real alternative to Tehran, and they are expected to continue the partnership as long as it serves their interests,” it adds.
The authors argue that China and Russia could readily sacrifice Iran to further their strategic goals, including strengthening ties with Washington.
The study comes just days after an Iranian official accused Russia without evidence of providing intelligence to Israel during the 12-day Middle Eastern war in June which allegedly helped the Jewish state target and destroy Iran’s air defense systems.
Mohammad Sadr, a member of Iran’s Expediency Discernment Council and close adviser to former President Mohammad Khatami, claimed Israel’s precise strikes on Iranian air defense systems were suspicious.
He noted Russia’s refusal to support Iran during the war, saying that Moscow had shown a “bias in favor of Israel” and that the recent conflict demonstrated the “strategic agreement with Russia is nonsense.”
“This war proved that the strategic alliance with Moscow is worthless,” Sadr said during an interview with BBC Persian, referring to the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
“We must not think that Russia will come to Iran’s aid when the time comes,” he continued.
At the SCO summit in Tianjin earlier this week, Tehran also described its ties with China as “flourishing,” pointing to a strategic pact similar to the one it signed with Russia.
According to some reports, China may be helping Iran rebuild its decimated air defenses following the 12-day war with Israel.
China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, with nearly 90 percent of Iran’s crude and condensate exports going to Beijing. The two sides also recently signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, held joint naval drills, and continued to trade Iranian oil despite US sanctions.
“It should be noted that despite the 25-year cooperation agreement signed between Tehran and Beijing in March 2021, the partnership between the two countries remains very limited, and China does not provide solutions to most of Iran’s economic difficulties, including the need for infrastructure investment,” the INSS study explains.
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