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Satellite Photos Show Iran Expanding Missile Production
A satellite photo shows suspected tunnel expansion (in the upper-right quadrant of the picture) at Shahid Modarres Garrison, near Tehran, Iran, in this handout image obtained by Reuters on July 5, 2024. Photo: Planet Labs PBC/Handout via REUTERS
Recent satellite imagery shows major expansions at two key Iranian ballistic missile facilities that two American researchers assessed are for boosting missile production, a conclusion confirmed by three senior Iranian officials.
The enlargement of the sites follows an October 2022 deal in which Iran agreed to provide missiles to Russia, which has been seeking them for its war against Ukraine. Tehran also supplies missiles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, both Islamist terrorist groups and members of the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance against Israel, according to US officials.
Images taken by commercial satellite firm Planet Labs of the Modarres military base in March and the Khojir missile production complex in April show more than 30 new buildings at the two sites, both of which are located near Tehran.
The images, reviewed by Reuters, show many of the structures are surrounded by large dirt berms. Such earthworks are associated with missile production and are designed to stop a blast in one building from detonating highly combustible materials in nearby structures, said Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
The expansions began at Khojir in August last year and at Modarres in October, Lewis said, based on images of the sites.
Iran‘s arsenal is already the largest in the Middle East, estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, including models designed to carry conventional and nuclear warheads, experts say.
Three Iranian officials, who asked not to be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly, confirmed that Modarres and Khojir are being expanded to boost production of conventional ballistic missiles.
“Why shouldn’t we?” said one official.
A second Iranian official said some of the new buildings would also allow a doubling of drone manufacturing. Drones and missile components would be sold to Russia, drones would be provided to the Houthis and missiles to Hezbollah, the source added.
Reuters was unable independently to confirm the Iranian officials’ comments.
Iran‘s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a Reuters request for comment on the expansion of the complexes. Tehran has previously denied providing drones and missiles to Russia and the Houthis. Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said a boost in Iran‘s weapons manufacturing would not have any impact in Yemen because the Houthis develop and manufacture aircraft independent of Iran.
Lewis analyzed the Planet Labs imagery with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank, as part of a Middlebury project that monitors Iranian missile infrastructure.
“We know that Russia is on the hunt for low-cost missile capabilities, and it has gone to Iran and North Korea,” said Lewis.
Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the transfer of North Korean missiles to Russia. The Russian embassy in Washington and North Korea’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story.
The two US researchers said in separate interviews that it was not clear from the photos what kinds of missiles would be produced at the new facilities, which still appeared to be under construction.
Any increase in Tehran’s missile or drone production would be concerning to the United States, which has said that Iranian drones help sustain Russia’s assault on Ukrainian cities, and to Israel as it fends off attacks from Iran-backed groups, including Hezbollah.
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the researchers’ analysis.
A US National Security Council spokesperson declined to confirm their assessment, adding that the United States has implemented various measures, including sanctions, intended to constrain Iranian missile and drone production and exports.
Reuters in February reported that Iran had sent surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran denied providing the weapons. Washington said it could not confirm the transfers but it assumed Tehran intended to provide missiles to Moscow.
NEW BUILDINGS, DIRT BERMS
Shahid Modarres and Khojir are overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an internationally designated terrorist group and the elite paramilitary organization that plays a central role in Iran‘s missile and nuclear programs. It controls large segments of the Iranian economy and answers directly to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The complexes have long been associated with the development and production of Iran‘s short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and rockets for the country’s space program.
On Nov. 12, 2011, a massive explosion destroyed a large swath of Shadid Modarres associated with solid fuel missiles, killing 17 IRGC officers. They included Gen. Hassan Moqaddam, regarded by Iran as the “architect” of its ballistic missile program.
Construction at Shahid Modarres, which began again after the 2011 explosion, accelerated last year, the second Iranian official said.
“I think the Iranians may have chosen not to berm the buildings [before the explosion] because they didn’t want to draw attention to them,” said Lewis. “They learned the hard way.”
Eveleth and Lewis said the sites’ long history with Iran‘s missile program — Shahid Modarres is considered by some experts as its birthplace — and the numerous dirt berms support their assessment that Tehran is expanding ballistic missile production.
“When we see where you basically have an entire production line that is bermed like that, that’s usually missiles,” said Eveleth.
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Trump Declares Iran-Israel Ceasefire a ‘Victory for Everybody’
US President Donald Trump speaks at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured), at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 25, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
US President Donald Trump hailed the swift end to war between Iran and Israel and said Washington would likely seek a commitment from Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions at talks with Iranian officials next week.
Trump said his decision to join Israel’s attacks by targeting Iranian nuclear sites with huge bunker-busting bombs had ended the war, calling it “a victory for everybody.”
“It was very severe. It was obliteration,” he said, shrugging off an initial assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency that Iran‘s path to building a nuclear weapon may have been set back only by months.
Speaking in The Hague where he attended a NATO summit on Wednesday, he said he did not see Iran getting involved again in developing nuclear weapons. Tehran has always denied decades of accusations by Western leaders that it is seeking nuclear arms.
“We’re going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement. I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary,” Trump said.
Anxious Iranians and Israelis sought to resume normal life after the most intense confrontation ever between the two foes.
Israel’s nuclear agency assessed the strikes had “set back Iran‘s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.” The White House also circulated the Israeli assessment, although Trump said he was not relying on Israeli intelligence.
He said he was confident Tehran would pursue a diplomatic path towards reconciliation.
“I’ll tell you, the last thing they want to do is enrich anything right now. They want to recover,” he said.
If Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear program, “We won’t let that happen. Number one, militarily we won’t,” he said, adding that he thought “we’ll end up having something of a relationship with Iran” to resolve the issue.
The head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, dismissed what he called the “hourglass approach” of assessing damage to Iran‘s nuclear program in terms of months needed to rebuild as besides the point for an issue that needed a long-term solution.
“In any case, the technological knowledge is there, and the industrial capacity is there. That, no one can deny. So, we need to work together with them,” he said. His priority was returning international inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites, which he said was the only way to find out precisely what state they were in.
Israel’s bombing campaign, launched with a surprise attack on June 13, wiped out the top echelon of Iran‘s military leadership and killed leading nuclear scientists. Iran responded with missiles that pierced Israel’s defenses in significant numbers for the first time.
Iranian authorities said 627 people were killed and nearly 5,000 injured in Iran, where the extent of the damage could not be independently confirmed because of tight restrictions on media. Twenty-eight people were killed in Israel.
Israel claimed to have achieved its goals of destroying Iran‘s nuclear sites and missiles.
Trump said both sides were exhausted but the conflict could restart.
Israel’s demonstration that it could target Iran‘s senior leadership seemingly at will poses perhaps the biggest challenge yet for Iran‘s clerical rulers, at a critical juncture when they must find a successor for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now 86 and in power for 36 years.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate elected last year in a challenge to years of dominance by hardliners, said it could result in reform.
“This war and the empathy that it fostered between the people and officials is an opportunity to change the outlook of management and the behavior of officials so that they can create unity,” he said in a statement carried by state media.
Still, Iran‘s authorities moved swiftly to demonstrate their control. The judiciary announced the execution of three men on Wednesday convicted of collaborating with Israel’s Mossad spy agency and smuggling equipment used in an assassination. Iran had arrested 700 people accused of ties with Israel during the conflict, the state-affiliated Nournews reported.
During the war, both Netanyahu and Trump publicly suggested that it could end with the toppling of Iran‘s entire system of clerical rule, established in its 1979 revolution.
But after the ceasefire, Trump said he did not want to see “regime change” in Iran, which he said would bring chaos at a time when he wanted the situation to settle down.
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UN Nuclear Chief Says It’s Possible Iran’s Highly Enriched Uranium ‘Is There’
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi arrives on the opening day of the agency’s quarterly Board of Governors meeting at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria, Nov. 20, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Lisa Leutner
There is a chance that much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium survived Israeli and US attacks because it may have been moved by Tehran soon after the first strikes, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday.
Israel repeatedly struck Iranian nuclear facilities during its 12-day war with Tehran, and US forces bombed Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at the weekend, but the extent of the damage to its stocks of enriched uranium is unclear.
International Atomic Energy Agency chief Grossi said earlier this week that Iran had informed the IAEA on June 13 – the first day of Israeli strikes – that it would take “special measures” to protect its nuclear materials and equipment.
“They did not get into details as to what that meant but clearly that was the implicit meaning of that, so we can imagine that this material is there,” Grossi told a press conference on Wednesday with members of the Austrian government.
“So, for that, to confirm, for the whole situation, evaluation, we need to return [IAEA inspectors to Iran’s nuclear facilities].”
He said ensuring the resumption of IAEA inspections was his top priority as none had taken place since the bombing began although Iran’s parliament approved moves on Wednesday to suspend such inspections.
The IAEA needs to determine how much remains of Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity – a level that is close to the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade.
Uranium enrichment has both civilian and military applications. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes.
The IAEA says no other country has enriched to such a high level without producing nuclear weapons, and Western powers say there is no civil justification for it.
‘HOURGLASS APPROACH’
The last quarterly IAEA report on May 31 indicated that Iran had, according to an IAEA yardstick, enough uranium enriched to up to 60 percent purity for nine nuclear weapons if enriched further. It has enough for more bombs at lower enrichment levels such as 20 percent and 5 percent, the report showed.
A preliminary US intelligence assessment determined that the US strikes at the weekend set back Tehran’s program by only a matter of months, meaning Iran could restart its nuclear program in that time, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
“This hourglass approach is something I do not like … It’s in the eye of the beholder,” Grossi said.
“When you look at the … reconstruction of the infrastructure, it’s not impossible. First, there has been some that survived the attacks, and then this is work that Iran knows how to do. It would take some time.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that Tehran’s view on the nuclear program and the non-proliferation regime would now “witness changes, but it is not possible to say in what direction.”
Iran’s parliament approved a bill on Wednesday on suspending cooperation with the IAEA and stipulating that any future IAEA inspection would need approval by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. The bill still requires approval by Iran’s unelected Guardian Council to become law.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf was quoted by state media as saying the IAEA “has put its international credibility up for sale” and that Iran would accelerate its civilian nuclear program.
“This would be, of course, very regrettable,” Grossi said of Iran’s threat to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
“I hope this is not the case. I don’t think this would help anybody, starting with Iran. This would lead to isolation and all sorts of problems and, why not, perhaps, if not the unravelling a very, very, very serious erosion in the NPT structure,” he said.
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Comparing US Strike on Iran to Hiroshima, Trump Plays Down Intelligence Report
A satellite image shows airstrike craters over the underground centrifuge halls of the Natanz Enrichment Facility, following US airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Natanz County, Iran, June 22, 2025. Photo: Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS
US President Donald Trump compared the impact of American strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to the end of World War II on Wednesday, arguing that the damage was severe even though available intelligence reports were inconclusive.
His comments followed reports by Reuters and other media outlets on Tuesday revealing that the US Defense Intelligence Agency had assessed that the strikes had set back Iran‘s nuclear program by just a few months, despite Trump and administration officials saying it had been obliterated.
“The intelligence was … very inconclusive,” Trump told reporters while meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte ahead of a summit in The Hague.
“The intelligence says, ‘We don’t know, it could have been very severe.’ That’s what the intelligence says. So, I guess that’s correct, but I think we can take the ‘we don’t know.’ It was very severe. It was obliteration,” Trump added.
SUCCESS OF IRAN STRIKES CRUCIAL FOR TRUMP
Trump has an uneasy relationship with the US intelligence community, and the success of the strikes is politically critical to him.
Some of his right-leaning supporters had argued loudly beforehand that such military intervention was inconsistent with Trump‘s domestic-focused “Make America Great Again” agenda and his promise to avoid foreign entanglements.
Trump has countered by insisting that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon – a line that an accurate, decisive attack would support.
Trump said the US strikes were responsible for ending the war between Israel and Iran and compared them to the United States’ use of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, which brought an end to World War II in 1945.
“I don’t want to use an example of Hiroshima, I don’t want to use an example of Nagasaki, but that was essentially the same thing. That ended that war. This ended the war,” Trump said.
Trump argued that Iran‘s nuclear program had been set back “basically decades, because I don’t think they’ll ever do it again” and he turned to top advisers to reinforce that message.
Broadly, he has argued that the strikes were much more successful than has so far been reported in the US media.
The White House on Wednesday shared what it said was a statement from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission – that country’s nuclear regulator – assessing that Iran‘s nuclear program had been set back by “many years.”
Al Jazeera quoted an Iranian official on Wednesday saying that the country’s nuclear installations had been “badly damaged.”
HEGSETH AND RUBIO REINFORCE TRUMP‘S MESSAGE
Trump, who arrived in the Netherlands late on Tuesday for NATO’s annual summit, was sitting beside Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who both also cast doubt on the reliability of the DIA assessment.
“When you actually look at the report – by the way, it was a top secret report – it was preliminary, it was low-confidence,” Hegseth said. “This is a political motive here.”
He said the FBI was investigating a potential leak. Rubio suggested that those responsible for sharing the report had mischaracterized it, saying: “This is the game they play.”
All three men criticized media reports about the intelligence assessments.
At the summit, NATO member states were set to announce their joint intention to raise defense spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product.
While some countries have suggested they may not in fact reach that threshold, the Trump administration has pointed to the expected commitment as a significant foreign policy victory.
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