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The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East

A person gestures next to a burning picture of President Bashar al-Assad, after rebels seized the capital and ousted the president, in Qamishli, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Orhan Qereman

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, with experts suggesting it has dismantled Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy and created both opportunities and challenges for Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in hailing the moment as a “historic” victory for Israeli strategy and security, calling it “a pivotal step toward regional stability and peace.”

“The Assad regime is a central link in Iran’s axis of evil — this regime has fallen,” he said on Sunday.

Speaking during a visit to Mount Bental on Israel’s border with Syria, Netanyahu described the regime’s downfall as the culmination of years of coordinated efforts to counter Iranian influence in Syria. “This is a strategic achievement for Israel, the fruit of our resolute actions against Iran’s entrenchment in the region.”

A Fragmented Syria

The vacuum left by Assad’s downfall has fragmented Syria into competing zones of control. Dina Lisnyansky, an expert in political Islam and terrorism, explained the current dynamics and said there was reason for “cautious optimism.”

“We’re seeing three main factions taking hold: Druze forces in the south, Kurds in the northeast, and Salafi Islamists elsewhere, including parts of Damascus,” she told The Algemeiner.

According to Lisnyansky, this mosaic of power offers Israel a rare diplomatic opening. “This could be an opportunity for Israel to establish relations with individual factions or a new Syrian government.”

However, she cautioned against unbridled optimism against the Salafis, represented by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group which led the raid on the Syrian capital of Damascus on Sunday. “The Salafi Islamists remain a branch of al-Qaeda, despite their leader [Abu Mohammed] al-Golani’s rhetoric about good relations with Syria’s neighbors — Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel,” she said. “It’s no coincidence that they received congratulations today from the Taliban, who enthusiastically backed their achievements and the overthrow of Assad.”

Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli similarly cautioned Israelis against premature celebrations.

“These are jihadists and Islamists who have done some of the worst things, of the ilk of ISIS and al-Qaeda,” he said, warning that Syria could “look like Afghanistan in no time.”

But, he said, the silver lining was the Kurdish control in the northeast region.

Lisnyansky warned that Turkey’s role in facilitating the overthrow adds another layer of complexity for Israel. Turkey’s growing influence in Syria even carries a potential risk of invasion, Lisnyansky said, referencing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s threats earlier this year that if Turkey shared a border with Israel, he would have already demonstrated his country’s capabilities, implying retaliation over Israel’s war in Gaza.

“Turkey is, without a doubt, hostile to Israel today. While we very much hope to improve relations with Turkey on one hand, we’re not under any illusions, This means they could currently place forces on our border that might even invade our territory,” she warned.

“We need to proceed with very cautious optimism and understand that what’s happening in the region is still extremely unclear,” she concluded.

Iran’s Setback

The Assad regime’s collapse has struck a significant blow to Iran’s regional ambitions. Assad’s government was a crucial link in Tehran’s efforts to arm and fund terrorist proxies from Lebanon to Gaza, forming a so-called “ring of fire” around Israel. With Damascus now fractured and Iranian proxies weakened, the Islamic Republic’s influence in Syria has been severely undermined.

Issam Zeitoun, a former Syrian opposition figure and founder of the Syrian Peace Initiative, highlighted the importance of regional efforts in this shift. “There is an obvious international and regional decision to keep Iran out,” he said. He credited Israel with playing a central role in curbing Iran’s influence, emphasizing the broader international agreement driving these developments.

Zeitoun also highlighted the humanitarian consequences of the regime’s fall, emphasizing the urgent need to support civilians in southern Syria. “We need to take care of them,” he said.

Zeitoun, speaking to The Algemeiner en route to Israel from Germany — where he fled following the Assad regime’s crackdown — outlined his plans to arrive in Jerusalem to discuss the renewal of the Good Neighbor project, which provided essential supplies and humanitarian aid, including medical treatment, to thousands of Syrians in border communities during the height of the civil war.

During his remarks at Mount Bental, Netanyahu also addressed the program, announcing Israel’s intent to resume it and highlighting its impact, noting that “hundreds of Syrian children were born here in Israel.” At the same time, he reaffirmed Israel’s policy of avoiding direct involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts.

Zeitoun expressed hope for a new era, emphasizing the potential of the Abraham Accords in reshaping regional alliances, and adding that they could potentially include Syria’s new leadership, depending on its trajectory. “We would love to join the Abraham Accords,” he said, referring to a series of US-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several countries in the Arab world in 2020.

“Everyone is happy. I’m getting calls from everywhere with congratulations. It’s been a very, very bad half-century for Syria,” he said.

“If something happens that we don’t like, we can change it,” he added, expressing confidence that Syrians have learned from the past and will not allow another dictator to take power.

Focus on Israel’s Security

While Netanyahu struck a celebratory tone, he also stressed the importance of vigilance. He gave the order for the Israel Defense Forces to be deployed in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, he said, marking the first time since the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 that Israeli forces have been present in the area for more than a few hours. Israeli forces on Sunday also captured the Syrian side of Mount Hermon.

“We are acting first and foremost to protect our border,” he said. “This area has been controlled for nearly 50 years by a buffer zone agreed upon in 1974, the Separation of Forces Agreement. This agreement has collapsed; the Syrian soldiers have abandoned their positions.”

Nir Boms, chairman of the Syria Research Forum, also struck a cautiously optimistic note, pointing to the potential for renewed cooperation with moderate Syrian groups.

“We’ve seen success in working with opposition figures in the past, particularly in the south. Whether such collaboration can be replicated in this new Syria remains uncertain, but the opportunities are there,” he told The Algemeiner.

“This war is not over yet, but for those who follow the war in Syria and those who see Assad’s downfall as a victory, it is at least a small reason to raise a toast,” he said.

Minorities in the Post-Assad Era

Israeli Maj. Shadi Khalloul (res), an expert on the region and Aramaic Christian activist, emphasized the importance of securing the areas captured by Israel over the weekend. “We will take what we need according to our security needs until there is a safe and different reality,” he told The Algemeiner.

Khalloul reflected on the broader implications for Christians in the region, highlighting their historical suffering under Assad’s regime, which he described as a “vicious enemy” to Israel and to Lebanon’s Aramaic and Maronite communities. Now, with Assad’s fall, communities across Lebanon — including Sunnis, Christians, and Druze — are celebrating, he said.

He noted the significance of Israel’s role in shaping this outcome: “Lebanon and Syria should thank Israel for liberating them, because without Israel this would not have happened today,” he told i24News.

But like the others, Khalloul warned of the risks tied to Syria’s uncertain future, pointing to the potential for instability if secular and Islamist factions fail to reach a power-sharing agreement.

“If these two sections find a deal to divide the power in Syria and rule Syria together, then we will have stability. But if not, we might see a civil war develop between these sides,” he said.

The post The Fall of Assad: A Tectonic Shift in the Middle East first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israel Says Missile Launched by Yemen’s Houthis ‘Most Likely’ Intercepted

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi addresses followers via a video link at the al-Shaab Mosque, formerly al-Saleh Mosque, in Sanaa, Yemen, Feb. 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah

The Israeli army said on Saturday that a missile fired from Yemen towards Israeli territory had been “most likely successfully intercepted,” while Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed responsibility for the launch.

Israel has threatened Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement – which has been attacking Israel in what it says is solidarity with Gaza – with a naval and air blockade if its attacks on Israel persist.

The Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group was responsible for Saturday’s attack, adding that it fired a missile towards the southern Israeli city of Beersheba.

Since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza in October 2023, the Houthis, who control most of Yemen, have been firing at Israel and at shipping in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade.

Most of the dozens of missiles and drones they have launched have been intercepted or fallen short. Israel has carried out a series of retaliatory strikes.

The post Israel Says Missile Launched by Yemen’s Houthis ‘Most Likely’ Intercepted first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Iran Holds Funeral for Commanders and Scientists Killed in War with Israel

People attend the funeral procession of Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists and others killed in Israeli strikes, in Tehran, Iran, June 28, 2025. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Large crowds of mourners dressed in black lined streets in Iran’s capital Tehran as the country held a funeral on Saturday for top military commanders, nuclear scientists and some of the civilians killed during this month’s aerial war with Israel.

At least 16 scientists and 10 senior commanders were among those mourned at the funeral, according to state media, including armed forces chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards commander General Hossein Salami, and Guards Aerospace Force chief General Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Their coffins were driven into Tehran’s Azadi Square adorned with their photos and national flags, as crowds waved flags and some reached out to touch the caskets and throw rose petals onto them. State-run Press TV showed an image of ballistic missiles on display.

Mass prayers were later held in the square.

State TV said the funeral, dubbed the “procession of the Martyrs of Power,” was held for a total of 60 people killed in the war, including four women and four children.

In attendance were President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior figures including Ali Shamkhani, who was seriously wounded during the conflict and is an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as Khamenei’s son Mojtaba.

“Today, Iranians, through heroic resistance against two regimes armed with nuclear weapons, protected their honor and dignity, and look to the future prouder, more dignified, and more resolute than ever,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who also attended the funeral, said in a Telegram post.

There was no immediate statement from Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since the conflict began. In past funerals, he led prayers over the coffins of senior commanders ahead of public ceremonies broadcast on state television.

Israel launched the air war on June 13, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and killing top military commanders as well as civilians in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq.

Iran retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites, infrastructure and cities. The United States entered the war on June 22 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

TRUMP THREAT

Israel, the only Middle Eastern country widely believed to have nuclear weapons, said it aimed to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons.

Iran denies having a nuclear weapons program. The U.N. nuclear watchdog has said it has “no credible indication” of an active, coordinated weapons program in Iran.

Bagheri, Salami and Hajizadeh were killed on June 13, the first day of the war. Bagheri was being buried at the Behesht Zahra cemetery outside Tehran mid-afternoon on Saturday. Salami and Hajizadeh were due to be buried on Sunday.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would consider bombing Iran again, while Khamenei, who has appeared in two pre-recorded video messages since the start of the war, has said Iran would respond to any future US attack by striking US military bases in the Middle East.

A senior Israeli military official said on Friday that Israel had delivered a “major blow” to Iran’s nuclear project. On Saturday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement that Israel and the US “failed to achieve their stated objectives” in the war.

According to Iranian health ministry figures, 610 people were killed on the Iranian side in the war before a ceasefire went into effect on Tuesday. More than 4,700 were injured.

Activist news agency HRANA put the number of killed at 974, including 387 civilians.

Israel’s health ministry said 28 were killed in Israel and 3,238 injured.

The post Iran Holds Funeral for Commanders and Scientists Killed in War with Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Pro-Palestinian Rapper Leads ‘Death to the IDF’ Chant at English Music festival

Revellers dance as Avril Lavigne performs on the Other Stage during the Glastonbury Festival at Worthy Farm, in Pilton, Somerset, Britain, June 30, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Dylan Martinez

i24 NewsChants of “death to the IDF” were heard during the English Glastonbury music festival on Saturday ahead of the appearance of the pro-Palestinian Irish rappers Kneecap.

One half of punk duo based Bob Vylan (who both use aliases to protect their privacy) shouted out during a section of their show “Death to the IDF” – the Israeli military. Videos posted on X (formerly Twitter) show the crowd responding to and repeating the cheer.

This comes after officials had petitioned the music festival to drop the band. The rap duo also expressed support for the following act, Kneecap, who the BCC refused to show live after one of its members, Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh – better known by stage name Mo Chara – was charged with a terror offense.

The post Pro-Palestinian Rapper Leads ‘Death to the IDF’ Chant at English Music festival first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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