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The Middle East: 45 Years After the Shah, the US’ Crucial Role in Seeking Stability
Iranian people gather during a ceremony to mark the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran February 11, 2019. Photo: Masoud Shahrestani/Tasnim News Agency/via REUTERS
Forty-five years have passed in Iran since the departure of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a juncture that profoundly reshaped the Middle East. Today, as the region continues to simmer with unrest, turmoil, and geopolitical complexities, the US intelligence community remains deeply engaged in deciphering this intricate landscape. Central to their focus are counter-terrorism and counterproliferation, as the Middle East, particularly within the Shia Crescent, grapples with the disruptive influence of numerous Islamic terrorist militias supported by Tehran’s mullahs.
In the era preceding January 16, 1979, the United States found a reliable partner in the late Shah of Iran. His reign was characterized by robust relations with the Arab world and Israel, and tentative diplomatic outreach to the then-USSR and China. Yet, despite these promising dynamics, a critical blind spot loomed: US intelligence, including the CIA and DIA, underestimated the burgeoning tide of Islamic fundamentalism. This oversight signaled a significant shift, one that the US and its allies are still contending with decades later.
Today, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is fraught with volatility. The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, vital arteries of global trade and politics, remain in a state of persistent unrest, rocked by Iranian-backed terrorist factions. Beyond regional instability, these terrorist groups, supported by networks like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds Force, actively fuel conflicts against Israel. Cloaked under the guise of “Islamic resistance,” their ultimate aim is to perpetuate the Iranian regime’s aggressive and ambitious policies, far from the ideals they publicly espouse.
The American political response to these challenges has been multifaceted yet contentious. President Joe Biden, known for his historic stances against apartheid and his elation at the fall of communism, confronts a complex dilemma in dealing with Iran’s theocratic regime. His administration’s attempts to breathe life into the seemingly moribund nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — have been met with skepticism and hurdles. The JCPOA, conceived as a framework to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for sanction relief, has become a pivot of international debate and a litmus test for diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
The Middle East’s quagmire transcends international diplomacy. The region is embroiled in conflicts accentuated by war, terrorism, sectarianism, and tribalism. Iran simmers with internal discontent and political undercurrents. Below the surface of its cities, waves of public dissent against the regime’s authoritarian grip are rising. Concurrently, speculation about the succession of the ailing Ali Khamenei stirs within the regime’s core. During Khamenei’s tenure, starting in 1989, the US has seen six presidents, a stark contrast that underscores the differing political trajectories of the two nations.
As the Biden administration’s term advances, a shift in US policy towards the Middle East seems improbable. The approaching 2024 election raises questions about the continuity or change in current strategies. The US intelligence community, aware of the stakes, works tirelessly to counter Iranian influence and maintain American dominance in the region through its alliances. However, the outcomes of these efforts remain shrouded in uncertainty.
Forty-five years ago, the Shah’s departure was akin to pulling a pillar of stability from a delicately balanced structure. The region plunged into a state of radicalism and unrest, a consequence still reverberating today. While the term “regime change” in Iran is politically sensitive and often avoided in Washington’s political corridors, the continuation of the current regime in Tehran poses a significant challenge to the dream of regional peace and stability.
Moreover, the Middle East’s plight is not merely a regional concern; it is a global issue necessitating a nuanced and comprehensive approach. The lessons of history, combined with present realities, must inform the strategies of the US and other global players. The region’s stability is intricately linked to global security, economic interests, and the broader quest for a peaceful international order. As such, a recalibration of policies and strategies, informed by a deep understanding of the region’s complexities, is imperative.
In this context, the role of diplomacy, intelligence, and strategic foresight becomes paramount. The US, along with its regional allies, must navigate a path that balances the pursuit of security interests with the promotion of peace and stability. This journey involves understanding the aspirations and grievances of the Middle Eastern peoples, addressing the root causes of extremism, Islamic terrorism, and fostering a climate conducive to dialogue and reconciliation.
In conclusion, the quest for stability in the Middle East, 45 years post-Shah, is a journey fraught with challenges but rich with opportunities. As the US moves forward, its policies and actions must be grounded in a clear-eyed assessment of the past, a realistic appraisal of the present, and a visionary outlook for the future. Only through such a comprehensive approach can we hope to see a Middle East that transcends the legacies of its tumultuous past and moves towards a future marked by peace, stability, and prosperity.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD / The newly published book of Erfan Fard is: “The Black Shabbat” (Israel, the target of terrorist), which has been published in the USA. www.erfanfard.com
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Pro-Palestinian Rapper Leads ‘Death to the IDF’ Chant at English Music festival

Revellers dance as Avril Lavigne performs on the Other Stage during the Glastonbury Festival at Worthy Farm, in Pilton, Somerset, Britain, June 30, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Dylan Martinez
i24 News – Chants of “death to the IDF” were heard during the English Glastonbury music festival on Saturday ahead of the appearance of the pro-Palestinian Irish rappers Kneecap.
One half of punk duo based Bob Vylan (who both use aliases to protect their privacy) shouted out during a section of their show “Death to the IDF” – the Israeli military. Videos posted on X (formerly Twitter) show the crowd responding to and repeating the cheer.
This comes after officials had petitioned the music festival to drop the band. The rap duo also expressed support for the following act, Kneecap, who the BCC refused to show live after one of its members, Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh – better known by stage name Mo Chara – was charged with a terror offense.
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Rubio Holds First Meeting with Hostage Families, Urges End to Gaza War

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 10, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard
i24 News – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held on Friday his first meeting with the families of the hostages still held in Gaza since taking office in January, telling the loved ones that a “real victory” can only occur in Gaza when the remaining hostages are returned.
Those in attendance included Omri Miran’s brother-in-law; Evyatar David’s brother; Hadar Goldin’s brother; and Iair Horn, who himself is a freed hostage, with his brother Eitan still held by Hamas in Gaza.
According to the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, they urged the current US administration for a “bold decision.” “We’ve waited long enough,” the family members said. “It’s time to make brave decisions and bring all our loved ones back—all at once.”
Rubio, in turn, expressed the Trump administration’s “unwavering commitment” in rescuing the 49 remaining hostages, 20 of whom are believed to still be alive.
This meeting comes after U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that he believes a ceasefire will be reached between Israel and Hamas “within the next week.”
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Trump Says He Would Consider Bombing Iran Again, Drops Sanctions Relief Plan

US President Donald Trump speaks at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured), at the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, June 25, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Brian Snyder
US President Donald Trump sharply criticized Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamanei, on Friday, dropped plans to lift sanctions on Iran and said he would consider bombing Iran again if Tehran is enriching uranium to worrisome levels.
Trump reacted sternly to Khamanei’s first remarks after a 12-day conflict with Israel that ended when the United States launched bombing raids last weekend against Iranian nuclear sites.
Khamanei said Iran “slapped America in the face” by launching an attack against a major US base in Qatar following the US bombing raids. Khamanei also said Iran would never surrender.
Trump said he had spared Khamanei’s life. US officials told Reuters on June 15 that Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill the supreme leader.
“His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life,” Trump said in a social media post.
“I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH,” he said.
Iran said a potential nuclear deal was conditional on the US ending its “disrespectful tone” toward the Supreme Leader.
“If President Trump is genuine about wanting a deal, he should put aside the disrespectful and unacceptable tone towards Iran’s Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, and stop hurting his millions of heartfelt followers,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X in the early hours of Saturday.
Trump also said that in recent days he had been working on the possible removal of sanctions on Iran to give it a chance for a speedy recovery. He said he had now abandoned that effort.
“I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more,” he said.
Trump said at a White House news conference that he did not rule out attacking Iran again, when asked about the possibility of new bombing of Iranian nuclear sites if deemed necessary at some point.
“Sure, without question, absolutely,” he said.
Trump said he would like inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency – the U.N. nuclear watchdog – or another respected source to be able to inspect Iran’s nuclear sites after they were bombed last weekend.
Trump has rejected any suggestion that damage to the sites was not as profound as he has said.
The IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, said on Wednesday that ensuring the resumption of IAEA inspections was his top priority as none had taken place since Israel began bombing on June 13.
However, Iran’s parliament approved moves on Wednesday to suspend such inspections. Araqchi indicated on Friday that Tehran may reject any request by the head of the agency for visits to Iranian nuclear sites.
Trump said Iran still wants to meet about the way forward. The White House had said on Thursday that no meeting between the U.S. and an Iranian delegation has been scheduled thus far.
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