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The Middle East: 45 Years After the Shah, the US’ Crucial Role in Seeking Stability
Iranian people gather during a ceremony to mark the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran February 11, 2019. Photo: Masoud Shahrestani/Tasnim News Agency/via REUTERS
Forty-five years have passed in Iran since the departure of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a juncture that profoundly reshaped the Middle East. Today, as the region continues to simmer with unrest, turmoil, and geopolitical complexities, the US intelligence community remains deeply engaged in deciphering this intricate landscape. Central to their focus are counter-terrorism and counterproliferation, as the Middle East, particularly within the Shia Crescent, grapples with the disruptive influence of numerous Islamic terrorist militias supported by Tehran’s mullahs.
In the era preceding January 16, 1979, the United States found a reliable partner in the late Shah of Iran. His reign was characterized by robust relations with the Arab world and Israel, and tentative diplomatic outreach to the then-USSR and China. Yet, despite these promising dynamics, a critical blind spot loomed: US intelligence, including the CIA and DIA, underestimated the burgeoning tide of Islamic fundamentalism. This oversight signaled a significant shift, one that the US and its allies are still contending with decades later.
Today, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is fraught with volatility. The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, vital arteries of global trade and politics, remain in a state of persistent unrest, rocked by Iranian-backed terrorist factions. Beyond regional instability, these terrorist groups, supported by networks like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds Force, actively fuel conflicts against Israel. Cloaked under the guise of “Islamic resistance,” their ultimate aim is to perpetuate the Iranian regime’s aggressive and ambitious policies, far from the ideals they publicly espouse.
The American political response to these challenges has been multifaceted yet contentious. President Joe Biden, known for his historic stances against apartheid and his elation at the fall of communism, confronts a complex dilemma in dealing with Iran’s theocratic regime. His administration’s attempts to breathe life into the seemingly moribund nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — have been met with skepticism and hurdles. The JCPOA, conceived as a framework to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for sanction relief, has become a pivot of international debate and a litmus test for diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
The Middle East’s quagmire transcends international diplomacy. The region is embroiled in conflicts accentuated by war, terrorism, sectarianism, and tribalism. Iran simmers with internal discontent and political undercurrents. Below the surface of its cities, waves of public dissent against the regime’s authoritarian grip are rising. Concurrently, speculation about the succession of the ailing Ali Khamenei stirs within the regime’s core. During Khamenei’s tenure, starting in 1989, the US has seen six presidents, a stark contrast that underscores the differing political trajectories of the two nations.
As the Biden administration’s term advances, a shift in US policy towards the Middle East seems improbable. The approaching 2024 election raises questions about the continuity or change in current strategies. The US intelligence community, aware of the stakes, works tirelessly to counter Iranian influence and maintain American dominance in the region through its alliances. However, the outcomes of these efforts remain shrouded in uncertainty.
Forty-five years ago, the Shah’s departure was akin to pulling a pillar of stability from a delicately balanced structure. The region plunged into a state of radicalism and unrest, a consequence still reverberating today. While the term “regime change” in Iran is politically sensitive and often avoided in Washington’s political corridors, the continuation of the current regime in Tehran poses a significant challenge to the dream of regional peace and stability.
Moreover, the Middle East’s plight is not merely a regional concern; it is a global issue necessitating a nuanced and comprehensive approach. The lessons of history, combined with present realities, must inform the strategies of the US and other global players. The region’s stability is intricately linked to global security, economic interests, and the broader quest for a peaceful international order. As such, a recalibration of policies and strategies, informed by a deep understanding of the region’s complexities, is imperative.
In this context, the role of diplomacy, intelligence, and strategic foresight becomes paramount. The US, along with its regional allies, must navigate a path that balances the pursuit of security interests with the promotion of peace and stability. This journey involves understanding the aspirations and grievances of the Middle Eastern peoples, addressing the root causes of extremism, Islamic terrorism, and fostering a climate conducive to dialogue and reconciliation.
In conclusion, the quest for stability in the Middle East, 45 years post-Shah, is a journey fraught with challenges but rich with opportunities. As the US moves forward, its policies and actions must be grounded in a clear-eyed assessment of the past, a realistic appraisal of the present, and a visionary outlook for the future. Only through such a comprehensive approach can we hope to see a Middle East that transcends the legacies of its tumultuous past and moves towards a future marked by peace, stability, and prosperity.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD / The newly published book of Erfan Fard is: “The Black Shabbat” (Israel, the target of terrorist), which has been published in the USA. www.erfanfard.com
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Iran, US Resume Oman-Mediated Nuclear Talks in Rome
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
i24 News – A new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States kicked off in Rome on Saturday, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff will negotiate indirectly through an Omani official who will shuttle messages between the two sides, Iranian officials said, a week after a first round of indirect talks in Muscat that both sides described as “constructive.”
Araqchi and Witkoff interacted briefly at the end of the first round, but officials from the two countries have not held direct negotiations since 2015 under former US President Barack Obama.
Araqchi called on “all parties involved in the talks to seize the opportunity to reach a reasonable and logical nuclear deal.”
Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Meanwhile, Israel has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Trump, who ditched a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six powers during his first term in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Tehran, has revived his “maximum pressure” campaign on the country since returning to the White House in January.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what is necessary for a civilian energy program.
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Reps. Dan Goldman and Chris Smith Issue Statement Condemning Shapiro Arson Attack As ‘Textbook Antisemitism’
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) holds a rally in support of US Vice President Kamala Harris’ Democratic presidential election campaign in Ambler, Pennsylvania, US, July 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Rachel Wisniewski
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Rep. Chris Smith (D-NJ) issued a statement condemning the recent arson attack against Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as a form of “textbook antisemitism.”
“Governor Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania and has nothing to do with Israel’s foreign policy, yet he was targeted as an American Jew by a radicalized extremist who blames the Governor for Israel’s actions. That is textbook antisemitism,” the statement read.
Shapiro’s residence, the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion, was set ablaze on Sunday morning, hours after the governor hosted a gathering to celebrate the first night of the Jewish holiday of Passover. Shapiro said that he, his wife, and his children were awakened by state troopers knocking on their door at 2 am. The governor and his family immediately evacuated the premises and were unscathed.
Goldman and Smith added that the arson attack against Shapiro serves as “a bitter reminder that persecution of Jews continues.” The duo claimed that they “strongly condemn this antisemitic violence” and called on the suspect to “be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.”
Pennsylvania State Police said that the suspect, Cody Balmer set fire to Shapiro’s residence over the alleged ongoing “injustices to the people of Palestine” and Shapiro’s Jewish faith.
According to an arrest warrant, Balmer called 911 prior to the attack and told emergency operators that he “will not take part in [Shapiro’s] plans for what he wants to do to the Palestinian people,” and demanded that the governor “stop having my friends killed.”
The suspect continued, telling operators, “Our people have been put through too much by that monster.”
Balmer later revealed to police that he planned to beat Shapiro with a sledgehammer if he encountered him after gaining access into his residence, according to authorities.
He was subsequently charged with eight crimes by authorities, including serious felonies such as attempted homicide, terrorism, and arson. The suspect faces potentially 100 years in jail. He has been denied bail.
Shapiro, a practicing Jew, has positioned himself as a staunch supporter of Israel. In the days following Hamas’s brutal slaughter of roughly 1,200 people across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Shapiro issued statements condemning the Palestinian terrorist group and gave a speech at a local synagogue. The governor also ordered the US and Pennsylvania Commonwealth flags to fly at half-mast outside the state capitol to honor the victims.
Shapiro’s strident support of the Jewish state in the wake of Oct. 7 also incensed many pro-Palestinian activists, resulting in the governor being dubbed “Genocide Josh” by far-left demonstrators.
US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (NY) chimed in on the arson attack Thursday, urging the Justice Department to launch a federal investigation, claiming that the incident could be motivated by antisemitism.
Schumer argued that the arson attack targeting Shapiro, who is Jewish, left the Pennsylvania governor’s family in “anguish” and warned that it could serve as an example of “rising antisemitic violence” within the United States. He stressed that a federal investigation and hate crime charges may be necessary to uphold the “fundamental values of religious freedom and public safety.”
Thus far, Shapiro has refused to blame the attack on antisemitism, despite the suspect’s alleged comments repudiating the governor over his support for Israel. The governor has stressed the importance of allowing prosecutors to determine whether the attack constitutes a hate crime.
The post Reps. Dan Goldman and Chris Smith Issue Statement Condemning Shapiro Arson Attack As ‘Textbook Antisemitism’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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US, Iran Set for Second Round of Nuclear Talks as Iranian FM Warns Against ‘Unrealistic Demands’
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a press conference following a meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Russia, April 18, 2025. Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool via REUTERS
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal could be reached during Saturday’s second round of nuclear negotiations in Rome if the United States does not make “unrealistic demands.”
In a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, Araghchi said that Washington showed “partial seriousness” during the first round of nuclear talks in Oman last week.
The Iranian top diplomat traveled to Moscow on Thursday to deliver a letter from Iran’s so-called Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, briefing Russian President Vladimir Putin on the ongoing nuclear talks with the White House.
“Their willingness to enter serious negotiations that address the nuclear issue only, without entering into other issues, can lead us towards constructive negotiations,” Araghchi said during the joint press conference in Moscow on Friday.
“As I have said before, if unreasonable, unrealistic and impractical demands are not made, an agreement is possible,” he continued.
Tehran has previously rejected halting its uranium enrichment program, insisting that the country’s right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable, despite Washington’s threats of military actions, additional sanctions, and tariffs if an agreement is not reached to curb the country’s nuclear activities.
On Tuesday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said that any deal with Iran must require the complete dismantling of its “nuclear enrichment and weaponization program” — reversing his earlier comments, in which he indicated that the White House would allow Tehran to enrich uranium to a 3.67 percent threshold for a “civil nuclear program.”
During the press conference, Araghchi also announced he would attend Saturday’s talks in Rome, explaining that negotiations with the US are being held indirectly due to recent threats and US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran — which aims to cut the country’s crude exports to zero and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
“Indirect negotiations are not something weird and an agreement is within reach through this method,” Araghchi said.
He also indicated that Iran expects Russia to play a role in any potential agreement with Washington, noting that the two countries have held frequent and close consultations on Tehran’s nuclear program in the past.
“We hope Russia will play a role in a possible deal,” Araghchi said during the press conference.
As an increasingly close ally of Iran, Moscow could play a crucial role in Tehran’s nuclear negotiations with the West, leveraging its position as a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council and a signatory to a now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal that imposed limits on the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018.
Since then, even though Tehran has denied wanting to develop a nuclear weapon, the UN’s nuclear watchdog – the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – has warned that Iran has “dramatically” accelerated uranium enrichment to up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent weapons-grade level and enough to build six nuclear bombs.
During the press conference on Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that “Russia is ready to facilitate the negotiation process between Iran and the US regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.”
Moscow has previously said that any military strike against Iran would be “illegal and unacceptable.”
Russia’s diplomatic role in the ongoing negotiations could also be important, as the country has recently solidified its growing partnership with the Iranian regime.
On Wednesday, Russia’s upper house of parliament ratified a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Iran, strengthening military ties between the two countries.
Despite Tehran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapon development, Western states have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
The post US, Iran Set for Second Round of Nuclear Talks as Iranian FM Warns Against ‘Unrealistic Demands’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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