A false narrative of mass departures from Israel has gained traction in international media, painting a misleading picture of a nation in retreat.

New data shows Israel’s population reached a historic milestone of 10 million citizens in 2024. While a record 82,700 people emigrated last year, net migration was 26,100 (-0.261 percent) when accounting for the 32,800 new immigrants and the 23,800 Israelis who returned home despite the war, a testament to the nation’s enduring appeal.

In its 2024 estimates of rates of net migration, the CIA World Factbook listed 50 countries ahead of Israel. And yet the media seem relatively oblivious to people fleeing countries like Indonesia, Qatar, Mexico, Peru, Pakistan, Turkey, Morocco, and many other countries at a vastly higher clip.

Investigating how the “flight-from-Israel” story gets told today serves as a case study in confirmation bias and of the power of preconceived narratives against Israel.

In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, atrocities and South Africa’s genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice, media outlets predicted gloom for Israel’s population.

The Guardian spoke, in December 2023, of a “mass exodus.” Less than two months after Hamas’ depredations into Israel, Reuters highlighted “Israelis seeking refuge abroad.” Just two weeks ago, the Associated Press reported how “information points to a surge of Israelis leaving.” This creates an image of a nation in inexorable decline. Yet the nuanced data tells a markedly different story.

Immigration to Israel (aliyah) actually increased by 25 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Roughly 35,000 Jews have immigrated to Israel since the October 7th massacres. A third of the new immigrants to Israel have been aged 18 to 35 years old. The Jewish Agency’s latest figures show robust immigration from diverse regions: 75,000 from North America, 45,000 from Europe, 35,000 from the former Soviet Union, and 15,000 from Latin America in 2023 alone.

The data reveals what Israeli cognitive psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called confirmation bias; in this case, observers interpret information to confirm their preexisting beliefs about Israel’s inexorable demise. Also on display is the availability heuristic, where dramatic stories of departure receive outsized attention compared to a stream of present or future arrivals.

Another bias in this narrative is the hasty generalization bias, an insidious form of inductive fallacy where isolated instances of emigration are extrapolated to misrepresent future trends.

This fallacy intensified following South Africa’s genocide libel against Israel, as media narratives amplified the unending departure myth despite evidence of increased solidarity and aliyah among South African Jews. Immigration from South Africa to Israel boomed by 20 percent after October 7, 2023.

This media narrative pattern isn’t new. Historical data reveals similar misconceptions during past challenges faced by Israel.

In the 1970s, economic instability was supposed to trigger ballooning departures, yet immigration from the USSR outpaced emigration. During the 1980s, the Lebanon War and intifadas allegedly sparked an exodus, but temporary emigration was offset by returnees and new immigrants. The 2000s saw predictions of a brain drain from Israel amid the tech bubble burst, only for the tech sector to rebound and attract global Jewish talent.

Israel’s latest Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) data puts these narratives in perspective. Israel’s population grew by 1.1 percent (129,600 people) in 2024. Although increased emigration and casualties from the Hamas war lent some credence to a temporary departure narrative, the fundamental trend remains positive, and the future is wondrous. The Jewish population stands at 7.7 million (76.9 percent), with 2.1 million Arabs (21 percent) and 210,000 others (two percent).

This persistent gap between perception and reality may reflect motivated reasoning, where emotional or ideological preferences shape how information is processed. In other words, what Kahneman and Tversky called confirmation bias intensifies in the media.

Reporters, sometimes influenced by an ingrained animus toward Israel’s sustainability, repeatedly fall into the trap of catastrophizing temporary challenges to Israel, while overlooking the nation’s proven resilience.

The phenomenon also demonstrates the bandwagon fallacy, sometimes called the “appeal to common belief,” where the repetition of a narrative across multiple outlets creates the illusion of validity.

Each outlet citing others’ similar reports creates an echo chamber that can drown out contradictory data.

As Israel begins 2025 with its largest population ever, it is worth examining how these cognitive biases shape international discourse. The story of Israel’s population growth in the face of pummeling adversity doesn’t fit neatly into preconceived storylines of fragility and exodus.

Rabbi Lord Jonathan Sacks’ adage applies to exposing any false narrative that diminishes Israel’s future: “Wrestle with it, refusing to let it go until it blesses you, until you emerge stronger, better or wiser than you were before. To be a Jew is not to accept defeat. That is the meaning of faith.”

Neil Seeman is a Senior Fellow at Massey College in the University of Toronto. His latest book is Accelerated Minds: Unlocking the Fascinating, Inspiring, and Often Destructive Impulses that Drive the Entrepreneurial Brain.

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