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The Truth About Israel’s Operation in Lebanon — and What Comes Next
A person mourns as he embraces the picture of his loved one killed at a soccer pitch by a rocket Israel says was fired from Lebanon, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights, July 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
In a dramatic preemptive strike, the IDF flew into Lebanon just before dawn on Sunday and destroyed a massive Hezbollah missile and drone force just minutes before it left the ground. So far, news in English has been at best incomplete and at worst outright misleading. It’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. Below is a detailed account, analysis, and predictions for the coming days, based on the best information available at this time.
Hezbollah’s attack, which was reportedly intended to launch at 5:00 AM, included thousands of rockets, missiles and drones: among them several dozen long range guided missiles aimed at the “Gush Dan” area of central Israel, which includes Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Yet at 4:40 AM, just minutes before the intended strike, some hundred Israeli fighter jets and an unknown number of helicopters flew multiple sorties deep into Lebanon, destroying nearly all the projectiles before they left the ground. A relatively small number of rockets hit parts of northern Israel: Hezbollah claims it succeeded in firing 320 projectiles and “successfully” completed the “first phase” of its revenge for Israel’s assasination of Hezbollah military chef Fuad Shuk in Beirut last month.
Despite Hezbollah’s claims of victory, the IDF has demonstrated two dramatic capabilities: the first is strong intelligence. Israel not only identified the intended strike before it occurred, but also pinpointed the exact location of individual rocket and drone launchers on the ground. The second capability is the Israeli Air Force (IAF)’s effectiveness: flying into Lebanon as if Hezbollah’s air defenses simply did not exist at all, carrying out a huge operation in multiple sorties, and then returning home with reportedly no IDF casualties, injuries, or equipment damage.
So far there has been no unusually large call-up of reserves, indicating that Israel is not likely proceeding toward a ground campaign at this time. Yet many Israelis believe an all out war in Lebanon to be inevitable and perhaps even desirable: with the entire north of Israel uninhabitable under an unending barrage of Hezbollah rockets, some 60,000 Israelis living for almost a year as “internally displaced persons” (effectively refugees in their own country), and Hezbollah’s range of destruction constantly expanding. Logically there are only two possible outcomes: a political solution, or a full scale war.
Hezbollah, which answers to Iran, has made it clear that the terror group will not agree to any negotiated solution until after Hamas agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza. Yet recent events (including a round of fresh refusals just in recent days) indicate that Hamas is not likely to agree to any offer in the near future. This eliminates a political solution, leaving only the military option.
The military option in Lebanon will not be some kind of “Gaza Part II” but far more destructive. In a single day, Hezbollah can fire more rockets than Hamas did in an entire month, enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system. An estimated 10% of Hezbollah’s arsenal is high yield, long range, precision missiles — capable of taking out electricity, communications, water, roads (that transport food), and, of course, large numbers of Israeli civilians. Israel had the luxury of warning Gaza’s civilians to evacuate before striking rocket launchers in civilian areas, leading to the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio for a conflict of this type in human history. Without the protection of Iron Dome, that kind of restraint will not be an option in Lebanon, where every moment of delay could mean the death of thousands of Israelis. Yet Hezbollah hides its munitions under densely populated civilian areas, such as Beirut, meaning that casualties could be far higher than in Gaza, and the Israeli home front will face a much greater burden than it has over the past 11 months.
Despite the high tensions, it does not seem likely that recent events will escalate into a regional conflict or a world war. Iran has demonstrated time and again that it will freely endanger its proxy states and their civilian populations, but will not risk its home front unless attacked directly. For example, Iran’s attack on Israel last April came in the wake of an Israeli strike on elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in Syria, and not in response to Israeli operations in Gaza or Lebanon. Russia and China have consistently confined themselves to “behind the scenes” support roles, and are equally unlikely to take direct military action for Hezbollah’s benefit. Finally, the United States has a massive force in the region, including missile defense and attack capabilities. Although America has been notoriously shy about taking offensive actions, even in response to recent Iranian strikes that killed US troops, America’s defensive capabilities have nonetheless proved impressive, and even its aversion to offense could change at any time.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. To the contrary, Israel has demonstrated astounding restraint, as it has been under relentless attack for 11 months, and has acted only responsively. If it were not for Israel’s Sunday operation in Lebanon, it is likely that hundreds or even thousands of Israelis could have died.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post The Truth About Israel’s Operation in Lebanon — and What Comes Next first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel Says Its Missions in UAE Remain Open Despite Reported Security Threats
President Isaac Herzog meets on Dec. 5, 2022, with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Photo: GPO/Amos Ben Gershom
i24 News – Israel’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday that its missions to the United Arab Emirates are open on Friday and representatives continue to operate at the embassy in Abu Dhabi and the consulate in Dubai in cooperation with local authorities.
This includes, the statement underlined, ensuring the protection of Israeli diplomats.
On Thursday, reports appeared in Israeli media that Israel was evacuating most of its diplomatic staff in the UAE after the National Security Council heightened its travel warning for Israelis staying in the Gulf country for fear of an Iranian or Iran-sponsored attacks.
“We are emphasizing this travel warning given our understanding that terrorist organizations (the Iranians, Hamas, Hezbollah and Global Jihad) are increasing their efforts to harm Israel,” the NSC said in a statement.
After signing the Abraham Accords with Israel in 2020, the UAE has been among the closest regional allies of the Jewish state.
Israel is concerned about its citizens and diplomats being targeted in retaliatory attacks following its 12-day war against Iran last month.
Earlier this year, the UAE sentenced three citizens of Uzbekistan to death for last year’s murder of Israeli-Moldovan rabbi Zvi Cohen.
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Hamas Says It Won’t Disarm Unless Independent Palestinian State Established
Palestinian Hamas terrorists stand guard on the day of the handover of hostages held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack, as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, Feb. 22, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
Hamas said on Saturday that it would not disarm unless an independent Palestinian state is established – a fresh rebuke to a key Israeli demand to end the war in Gaza.
Indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel aimed at securing a 60-day ceasefire in the Gaza war and deal for the release of hostages ended last week in deadlock.
On Tuesday, Qatar and Egypt, who are mediating ceasefire efforts, endorsed a declaration by France and Saudi Arabia outlining steps toward a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and saying that as part of this Hamas must hand over its arms to the Western-backed Palestinian Authority.
In its statement, Hamas – which has dominated Gaza since 2007 but has been militarily battered by Israel in the war – said it could not yield its right to “armed resistance” unless an “independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital” is established.
Israel considers the disarmament of Hamas a key condition for any deal to end the conflict, but Hamas has repeatedly said it is not willing to lay down its weaponry.
Last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described any future independent Palestinian state as a platform to destroy Israel and said, for that reason, security control over Palestinian territories must remain with Israel.
He also criticized several countries, including the UK and Canada, for announcing plans to recognize a Palestinian state in response to devastation of Gaza from Israel’s offensive and blockade, calling the move a reward for Hamas’ conduct.
The war started when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages back to Gaza.
Israel and Hamas traded blame after the most recent round of talks ended in an impasse, with gaps lingering over issues including the extent of an Israeli military withdrawal.
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US Envoy Witkoff Visits the Gaza Aid Operation That the UN Calls Unsafe
US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy visited a US-backed aid operation in Gaza on Friday, which the United Nations has partly blamed for deadly conditions in the enclave, saying he sought to get food and other aid to people there.
Steve Witkoff visited a site run by the US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation in Rafah in the war-shattered Palestinian territory, where Israel has been fighting the militant group Hamas.
Humanitarian organizations and many foreign governments have been strongly critical of the GHF, which began operations in late May. A global hunger monitor warned this week that famine is unfolding in Gaza.
The Israeli military said it was still looking into the incident in which soldiers fired warning shots at what it described as a “gathering of suspects” approaching its troops, hundreds of meters from the aid site.
The United Nations says more than 1,000 people have been killed trying to receive aid in Gaza since the GHF began operating, most of them shot by Israeli forces operating near GHF sites.
The Israeli military has acknowledged that its forces have killed some Palestinians seeking aid and says it has given its troops new orders to improve their response.
The UN has declined to work with the GHF, which it says distributes aid in ways that are inherently dangerous and violate humanitarian neutrality principles, contributing to the hunger crisis across the territory.
The GHF says nobody has been killed at its distribution points, and that it is doing a better job of protecting aid deliveries than the U.N.
Israel blames Hamas and the U.N. for the failure of food to get to desperate Palestinians in Gaza and introduced the GHF distribution system, saying it would prevent aid supplies being seized by Hamas. Hamas denies stealing aid.
Indirect negotiations between the sides aimed at securing a 60-day ceasefire and hostage release deal ended last week in deadlock.
Hamas on Friday released a video of Israeli hostage Evyatar David in one of its tunnels appearing skeletally thin. Its allied Islamic Jihad militant group released a video on Thursday of hostage Rom Braslavski, crying and pleading for his release.
CRAFTING A PLAN
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, who traveled with Witkoff to Gaza on Friday, posted on X a picture showing hungry Gazans behind razor wire with a GHF poster displaying a big American flag and the words “100,000,000 meals delivered.”
“President Trump understands the stakes in Gaza and that feeding civilians, not Hamas, must be the priority,” GHF spokesperson Chapin Fay said in a statement accompanied by images of Witkoff in a grey camouflage top, flak jacket and “Make America Great Again” baseball cap with Trump’s name stitched on the back.
Witkoff said on X that he had also met with other agencies.
“The purpose of the visit was to give @POTUS (Trump) a clear understanding of the humanitarian situation and help craft a plan to deliver food and medical aid to the people of Gaza,” Witkoff said.
He visited Gaza a day after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is under mounting international pressure over the devastation of Gaza since the start of the war and growing starvation among its 2.2 million inhabitants.
MALNUTRITION
Gaza medics say dozens have died of malnutrition in recent days after Israel cut off all supplies to the enclave for nearly three months from March-May.
Israel says it is taking steps to let in more aid, including pausing fighting for part of the day in some areas and announcing protected routes for aid convoys.
The worsening crisis has prompted France, Britain and Canada to announce plans to potentially recognize a Palestinian state, a move already taken by most countries but not by major Western powers.
On Friday, the Israeli military said that 200 trucks of aid were distributed by the U.N. and other organizations on Thursday, with hundreds more waiting to be picked up from the border crossings inside Gaza.
The United Nations says it has thousands of trucks still waiting, if Israel would let them in without the stringent security measures that aid groups say have prevented the entry of humanitarian assistance.
Israel began allowing food air drops this week, but U.N. agencies say these are a poor alternative to letting in more trucks. On Friday, the Israeli military said that 126 food packages were airdropped by six countries, including for the first time France, Spain, and Germany.