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The Truth About Israel’s Operation in Lebanon — and What Comes Next
A person mourns as he embraces the picture of his loved one killed at a soccer pitch by a rocket Israel says was fired from Lebanon, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights, July 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
In a dramatic preemptive strike, the IDF flew into Lebanon just before dawn on Sunday and destroyed a massive Hezbollah missile and drone force just minutes before it left the ground. So far, news in English has been at best incomplete and at worst outright misleading. It’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. Below is a detailed account, analysis, and predictions for the coming days, based on the best information available at this time.
Hezbollah’s attack, which was reportedly intended to launch at 5:00 AM, included thousands of rockets, missiles and drones: among them several dozen long range guided missiles aimed at the “Gush Dan” area of central Israel, which includes Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Yet at 4:40 AM, just minutes before the intended strike, some hundred Israeli fighter jets and an unknown number of helicopters flew multiple sorties deep into Lebanon, destroying nearly all the projectiles before they left the ground. A relatively small number of rockets hit parts of northern Israel: Hezbollah claims it succeeded in firing 320 projectiles and “successfully” completed the “first phase” of its revenge for Israel’s assasination of Hezbollah military chef Fuad Shuk in Beirut last month.
Despite Hezbollah’s claims of victory, the IDF has demonstrated two dramatic capabilities: the first is strong intelligence. Israel not only identified the intended strike before it occurred, but also pinpointed the exact location of individual rocket and drone launchers on the ground. The second capability is the Israeli Air Force (IAF)’s effectiveness: flying into Lebanon as if Hezbollah’s air defenses simply did not exist at all, carrying out a huge operation in multiple sorties, and then returning home with reportedly no IDF casualties, injuries, or equipment damage.
So far there has been no unusually large call-up of reserves, indicating that Israel is not likely proceeding toward a ground campaign at this time. Yet many Israelis believe an all out war in Lebanon to be inevitable and perhaps even desirable: with the entire north of Israel uninhabitable under an unending barrage of Hezbollah rockets, some 60,000 Israelis living for almost a year as “internally displaced persons” (effectively refugees in their own country), and Hezbollah’s range of destruction constantly expanding. Logically there are only two possible outcomes: a political solution, or a full scale war.
Hezbollah, which answers to Iran, has made it clear that the terror group will not agree to any negotiated solution until after Hamas agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza. Yet recent events (including a round of fresh refusals just in recent days) indicate that Hamas is not likely to agree to any offer in the near future. This eliminates a political solution, leaving only the military option.
The military option in Lebanon will not be some kind of “Gaza Part II” but far more destructive. In a single day, Hezbollah can fire more rockets than Hamas did in an entire month, enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system. An estimated 10% of Hezbollah’s arsenal is high yield, long range, precision missiles — capable of taking out electricity, communications, water, roads (that transport food), and, of course, large numbers of Israeli civilians. Israel had the luxury of warning Gaza’s civilians to evacuate before striking rocket launchers in civilian areas, leading to the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio for a conflict of this type in human history. Without the protection of Iron Dome, that kind of restraint will not be an option in Lebanon, where every moment of delay could mean the death of thousands of Israelis. Yet Hezbollah hides its munitions under densely populated civilian areas, such as Beirut, meaning that casualties could be far higher than in Gaza, and the Israeli home front will face a much greater burden than it has over the past 11 months.
Despite the high tensions, it does not seem likely that recent events will escalate into a regional conflict or a world war. Iran has demonstrated time and again that it will freely endanger its proxy states and their civilian populations, but will not risk its home front unless attacked directly. For example, Iran’s attack on Israel last April came in the wake of an Israeli strike on elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in Syria, and not in response to Israeli operations in Gaza or Lebanon. Russia and China have consistently confined themselves to “behind the scenes” support roles, and are equally unlikely to take direct military action for Hezbollah’s benefit. Finally, the United States has a massive force in the region, including missile defense and attack capabilities. Although America has been notoriously shy about taking offensive actions, even in response to recent Iranian strikes that killed US troops, America’s defensive capabilities have nonetheless proved impressive, and even its aversion to offense could change at any time.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. To the contrary, Israel has demonstrated astounding restraint, as it has been under relentless attack for 11 months, and has acted only responsively. If it were not for Israel’s Sunday operation in Lebanon, it is likely that hundreds or even thousands of Israelis could have died.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Anti-Israel Agitators Vandalize Cornell University Administrative Building to Kick Off New Academic Year
Cornell University anti-Israel protesters set up encampment on the University’s Arts Quad, May 3, 2024. Photo: USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect
Anti-Israel students at Cornell University vandalized an administrative building on Monday, a provocation which marks an early test of the resolve of the interim president who announced new policies on “institutional neutrality,” discipline, and encampments around the time of incident.
According to the Cornell Daily Sun, the anti-Zionist agitators graffitied “Israel Bombs, Cornell pays” and “Blood is on your hands” on Day Hall. They also shattered the glazings of its front doors.
“We had to accept that the only way to make ourselves heard is by targeting the only thing the university administration really cares about: property,” the students told the paper. “With the start of this new academic year, the Cornell administration is trying desperately to upkeep a facade of normalcy knowing that, since last semester, they have been working tirelessly to uphold Cornell’s function as a fascist, classist, imperial machine.”
The students also took aim at interim president Michael Kotlikoff, who assumed office following the resignation of Martha Pollack earlier this summer. Accusing him of duplicity in managing a strike of the university’s employees, they supplied additional reasons for their actions.
“[He] has been antagonizing workers that keep this university running by engaging in bad-faith negotiations with the union and deploying scab workers — even himself — to undermine the solidarity of workers and power of the ongoing strike,” they explained.
The vandalism of Day Hall concurred with Kotlikoff’s issuing a lengthy statement which described how the university will respond to potentially disruptive protests, a problem which prematurely ended the tenures of four Ivy League presidents last academic year, including his predecessor. In it, Kotlikoff stressed his belief in upholding the “expressive activities of individuals” while maintaining that “they are bounded by the need to protect the core functions of the university and the reciprocal rights of others.” Adding that the university will permit encampments of the kind which emerged across the country in May, he concluded by outlining a no-tolerance approach to disciplinary infractions.
“Acts of violence, extended occupations of buildings, or destruction of property (including graffiti), will not be tolerated and will be subject to immediate public safety response,” he said. “We will enforce these policies consistently, for every group or activity, on any issue or subject …We urge all members of the community to express their views in a manner that respects the rights of others. One voice may never stifle another. There is a time, place, and manner for all to speak and all to be heard.”
It is not clear that Kotlikoff’s statement was prompted by the incident on Monday morning, but its concurrence with destruction of school property carried out in the name of anti-Zionism has nonetheless initiated an early appraisal of his style of governance and the measures he is prepared to enact to preserve order. Identifying and punishing the culprits could set off protests which disrupt the campus or cause a collision with the Cornell Daily Sun, which has agreed not to reveal their identities. Letting the incident slide may invite the scrutiny of the US Congress, which only last week asked the university to share its plans for deterring and responding to lawbreaking and antisemitic discrimination. As of this publication, he has not signaled which course of action he plans to take.
Anti-Zionists convulsed Cornell University’s campus last year, engaging in activities that are without precedent in the school’s 159-year history. In October, three weeks after Hamas’ massacre across southern Israel, now-former student Patrick Dai threatened to perpetrate heinous crimes against members of the school’s Jewish community, including mass murder and rape. Cornell students also occupied a campus building and held a “mock trial” in which they convicted Pollack of complicity in “apartheid” and “genocide against Palestinian civilians.” Meanwhile, history professor Russell Rickford called Hamas’ barbarity on Oct. 7 “exhilarating” and “energizing” at a pro-Palestinian rally held on campus.
By the end of the year, Pollack announced her resignation, which followed the installment of an illegal “Gaza Solidarity Encampment” on the campus where pro-Hamas students had lived and protested the university’s investments in companies linked to Israel. During that time, she oversaw at least four full and temporary suspensions of the protesters and issued ultimatums to those who refuse to leave.
“Continued delay is not in the university’s best interests, both because of the need to have sufficient time for a smooth transition before the start of the academic year, and because I do not want my announcement to interfere with the celebration of our newest graduates at commencement in just a few weeks,” she said in announcing her decision to resign. “I understand that there will be lots of speculation about my decision, so let me be as clear as I can: this decision is mine and mine alone. After seven fruitful and gratifying years as Cornell’s president — and after a career in research and academia spanning five decades — I’m ready for a new chapter in my life.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Terror Group’s News Outlet Deletes Article About PFLP-Tied Journalist Criticized for Emmy Nomination
Palestinian PFLP supporters seen during a rally marking the 52nd anniversary of its founding, in the West Bank city of Nablus, on Dec. 14, 2019. Photo: Nasser Ishtayeh/Flash90.
A Gaza-based news outlet established by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) deleted an article that praised Gaza journalist Bisan Owda amid controversy about her receiving an Emmy nomination because of her connection to the US-designated terrorist organization.
The Arabic-language publication Al-Hadaf, which serves as the mouthpiece for the PFLP, deleted an article titled “Journalism in the Crosshairs of Politics… how Bisan Owda became a symbol of resistance journalism” that was published on Thursday, according to The Jerusalem Post. The move came after more than 150 members of the entertainment industry called on the National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (NATAS) last week to rescind Owda’s Emmy nomination due to her support for the PFLP.
The Gaza-based Palestinian journalist and filmmaker was nominated for her documentary series “It’s Bisan From Gaza and I’m Still Alive” in the 2024 Emmy Awards for News & Documentary in the category of outstanding hard news feature story: short form. In the docuseries, Owda reports from Gaza and documents the daily life of Palestinians during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
The docuseries was a collaboration with the digital media outlet AJ+ which is based in the US and is a subsidiary of the Qatari-owned media outlet Al Jazeera. In 2020, the US Department of Justice ordered AJ+ to register as a foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). The Justice Department declared that the outlet, which is backed by the royal family of Qatar, engages in “political activities” on behalf of Qatar’s government and is “designed to influence American perceptions of a domestic policy issue or a foreign nation’s activities or its leadership.” However, the outlet has refused to follow the department’s orders.
Owda’s longstanding ties to PFLP – which is designated as a terrorist organization in US, Israel, European Union and Canada — was exposed shortly after her Emmy nomination was announced in mid-July. She attended and spoke at PFLP rallies, hosted events honoring Palestinians fighting Israeli soldiers, and the PFLP referred to her in 2018 as a member of its Progressive Youth Union. She also regularly makes anti-Zionist comments on social media while reporting from Gaza about the Israel-Hamas war.
More than 150 entertainment industry figures said in an open letter to NATAS that Owda’s Emmy nomination is in violation of the Academy’s code of ethical conduct, and is also “deeply troubling, given the creator’s history of promoting dangerous falsehoods, spreading antisemitism, and condoning violence.” The letter was spearheaded by the nonprofit organization Creative Community for Peace.
In response to the open letter, NATAS President and CEO Adam Sharp sent a letter to CCFP President Ari Ingel defending Owda’s nomination.
“NATAS is aware of reports, cited in your letter and initially surfaced by a communications consultant in the region, that appear to show a then-teenaged Bisan Owda speaking at various PFLP-associated events between six and nine years ago. NATAS has been unable to corroborate these reports, nor has it been able, to date, to surface any evidence of more contemporary or active involvement by Owda with the PFLP organization,” Sharp wrote.
He explained that Owda’s docuseries “was reviewed by two successive panels of independent judges, including senior editorial leadership from each significant US broadcast news network.” The panels concluded that “It’s Bisan From Gaza and I’m Still Alive” was “consistent with competition rules and NATAS policies.”
“Accordingly, NATAS has found no grounds, to date, upon which to overturn the editorial judgment of the independent journalists who reviewed the material,” he added. Sharp also told Ingel that some Emmy nominations “have been controversial, giving a platform to voices that certain viewers may find objectionable or even abhorrent. But all have been in the service of the journalistic mission to capture every facet of the story.”
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Germany Returns Painting Stolen for Hitler’s Museum to Heirs of Jewish Owner
A partial view of “The Valley of Mills near Amalfi” by Carl Blechen. Photo: Bridgeman Art Library via Wikimedia Commons
Germany has restituted a painting that was stolen by the Nazis in 1942 from the family of two Jewish brothers and intended to be used in a museum for Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
The landscape painting “Valley of Mills near Amalfi” (ca. 1830) by the 19th century German artist Carl Blechen was owned by Arthur and Eugen Goldschmidt, who were also art collectors. The painting was purchased by their father in Berlin and inherited by the brothers when he died. Arthur, who was also a publisher, and Eugen, who was a chemist, faced Nazi persecution and shortly after Kristallnacht in November 1938, the brothers committed suicide.
Their art collection was inherited by their nephew Edgar Moor but he had recently emigrated to Johannesburg, South Africa, so the artworks stayed in the brothers’ former apartment in Berlin. In July 1942, the Gestapo confiscated everything owned by Moor that remained in Germany, including “Valley of Mills near Amalfi.” Germany’s Federal Art Administration announced that the German government returned the Blechen painting to Moor’s heirs earlier this month after the signing of a restitution agreement in May.
“Based on the information available, it can be safely assumed that the painting in question was confiscated by Edgar Moor as a result of Nazi persecution,” the Federal Art Administration said. Including “The Valley of Mills near Amalfi,” the Federal Republic of Germany has restituted 69 artworks.
The Blechen painting was bought in 1944 by a special commission organized by Hitler to acquire items that would be displayed at a Fürhermuseum he planned to open in Linz, Austria. “Valley of Mills near Amalfi“ was stored inside Hitler’s building in Munich called Führerbau, which stills stands today, but it was stolen in 1945. The Munich police got a hold of the painting in 1946, and in June 1949, the American military government transferred it and other objects that had not been restituted to Bavarian Prime Minister Hans Ehard. The painting was handed over to Germany’s federal government in 1952 and was officially made federal property in 1960, along with other items formerly owned by the Nazis.
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