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The Truth About Israel’s Operation in Lebanon — and What Comes Next
A person mourns as he embraces the picture of his loved one killed at a soccer pitch by a rocket Israel says was fired from Lebanon, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights, July 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
In a dramatic preemptive strike, the IDF flew into Lebanon just before dawn on Sunday and destroyed a massive Hezbollah missile and drone force just minutes before it left the ground. So far, news in English has been at best incomplete and at worst outright misleading. It’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. Below is a detailed account, analysis, and predictions for the coming days, based on the best information available at this time.
Hezbollah’s attack, which was reportedly intended to launch at 5:00 AM, included thousands of rockets, missiles and drones: among them several dozen long range guided missiles aimed at the “Gush Dan” area of central Israel, which includes Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Yet at 4:40 AM, just minutes before the intended strike, some hundred Israeli fighter jets and an unknown number of helicopters flew multiple sorties deep into Lebanon, destroying nearly all the projectiles before they left the ground. A relatively small number of rockets hit parts of northern Israel: Hezbollah claims it succeeded in firing 320 projectiles and “successfully” completed the “first phase” of its revenge for Israel’s assasination of Hezbollah military chef Fuad Shuk in Beirut last month.
Despite Hezbollah’s claims of victory, the IDF has demonstrated two dramatic capabilities: the first is strong intelligence. Israel not only identified the intended strike before it occurred, but also pinpointed the exact location of individual rocket and drone launchers on the ground. The second capability is the Israeli Air Force (IAF)’s effectiveness: flying into Lebanon as if Hezbollah’s air defenses simply did not exist at all, carrying out a huge operation in multiple sorties, and then returning home with reportedly no IDF casualties, injuries, or equipment damage.
So far there has been no unusually large call-up of reserves, indicating that Israel is not likely proceeding toward a ground campaign at this time. Yet many Israelis believe an all out war in Lebanon to be inevitable and perhaps even desirable: with the entire north of Israel uninhabitable under an unending barrage of Hezbollah rockets, some 60,000 Israelis living for almost a year as “internally displaced persons” (effectively refugees in their own country), and Hezbollah’s range of destruction constantly expanding. Logically there are only two possible outcomes: a political solution, or a full scale war.
Hezbollah, which answers to Iran, has made it clear that the terror group will not agree to any negotiated solution until after Hamas agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza. Yet recent events (including a round of fresh refusals just in recent days) indicate that Hamas is not likely to agree to any offer in the near future. This eliminates a political solution, leaving only the military option.
The military option in Lebanon will not be some kind of “Gaza Part II” but far more destructive. In a single day, Hezbollah can fire more rockets than Hamas did in an entire month, enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system. An estimated 10% of Hezbollah’s arsenal is high yield, long range, precision missiles — capable of taking out electricity, communications, water, roads (that transport food), and, of course, large numbers of Israeli civilians. Israel had the luxury of warning Gaza’s civilians to evacuate before striking rocket launchers in civilian areas, leading to the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio for a conflict of this type in human history. Without the protection of Iron Dome, that kind of restraint will not be an option in Lebanon, where every moment of delay could mean the death of thousands of Israelis. Yet Hezbollah hides its munitions under densely populated civilian areas, such as Beirut, meaning that casualties could be far higher than in Gaza, and the Israeli home front will face a much greater burden than it has over the past 11 months.
Despite the high tensions, it does not seem likely that recent events will escalate into a regional conflict or a world war. Iran has demonstrated time and again that it will freely endanger its proxy states and their civilian populations, but will not risk its home front unless attacked directly. For example, Iran’s attack on Israel last April came in the wake of an Israeli strike on elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in Syria, and not in response to Israeli operations in Gaza or Lebanon. Russia and China have consistently confined themselves to “behind the scenes” support roles, and are equally unlikely to take direct military action for Hezbollah’s benefit. Finally, the United States has a massive force in the region, including missile defense and attack capabilities. Although America has been notoriously shy about taking offensive actions, even in response to recent Iranian strikes that killed US troops, America’s defensive capabilities have nonetheless proved impressive, and even its aversion to offense could change at any time.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. To the contrary, Israel has demonstrated astounding restraint, as it has been under relentless attack for 11 months, and has acted only responsively. If it were not for Israel’s Sunday operation in Lebanon, it is likely that hundreds or even thousands of Israelis could have died.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Palestinian Authority Restructures ‘Pay-for-Slay’ System, but Questions Remain About Whether Move Is Genuine
PA President Mahmoud Abbas at the UN General Assembly in New York. Photo: Reuters/Caitlin Ochs
The Palestinian Authority has restructured its so-called “pay-for-slay” program, which rewards terrorists and their families for carrying out attacks against Israelis, in an effort to push the United States to repeal punitive legislation against the PA for its long-standing policy.
The Palestinian Authority Martyr’s Fund makes official payments to Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, the families of “martyrs” killed in attacks on Israelis, and injured Palestinian terrorists. Reports estimate that approximately 8 percent of the PA’s budget is allocated to paying stipends to convicted terrorists and their families.
On Monday, however, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree revoking the “laws and regulations related to the system of paying financial allowances to the families of prisoners, martyrs, and the wounded,” according to the official PA news agency WAFA.
“All families that benefited from previous laws, legislation, and regulations are subject to the same standards applied without discrimination to all families benefiting from protection and social welfare programs,” WAFA reported.
The decree means that the PA has changed its system such that payments to Palestinian prisoners convicted of terrorist attacks and their families will be based on their social economic status, not the acts they committed. Under the now-revoked program, Palestinians would receive more money for more severe terrorist acts — a policy that, according to critics, incentivized more terrorism.
However, Israeli journalist Lahav Harkov argued that the PA is “just restructuring the mechanism through which they pay terrorists so that they can claim it’s not them, it’s an ‘independent’ foundation doing it. An ‘independent’ foundation funded by the PA and whose board is appointed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas.”
The Israeli Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday saying, “This is a new fraudulent trick by the Palestinian Authority, which intends to continue making payments to terrorists and their families through other payment channels.”
Palestinian officials told Axios they hope Abbas’s decision will improve relations with the Trump administration and with the US Congress in order for Washington to resume US financial aid to the PA.
Along with its policy change, the PA reportedly asked the US to repeal the Taylor Force Act, a 2018 law which prohibits US funding to the PA so long as it maintains its pay-for-slay program.
Critics therefore doubt the sincerity of the move. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a think tank, noted that the PA has deceptively used “pay-for-slay” reform as a beginning chip in the past.
“The PA president … promised ‘pay-to-slay’ reform in 2020 to try to convince then incoming President Joe Biden to revoke 1987 legislation designating the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) ‘and its affiliates’ as terror groups,” FDD wrote.
Aaron Goren, a research analyst and editor at FDD, wrote in response to Monday’s news that “pay-to-slay reform is certainly welcome at face value and demonstrative of the Trump administration’s power in negotiations. However, American officials should be wary of the PA’s steadfast tactic of leveraging pay-to-slay reform to get concessions from the United States and Israel. The PA is likely to make serious demands from both nations in exchange.”
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Super Bowl Halftime Show Dancer Gets NFL Lifetime Ban for Displaying Palestinian Flag During Performance
A protester holding a flag with the words “Gaza” and “Sudan” as rapper Kendrick Lamar performed during the Super Bowl halftime show at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Feb. 9, 2025. Photo: Screenshot
A dancer in Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show has been banned for life from all National Football League stadiums and events for waving a combined Palestinian-Sudanese flag with the words “Gaza” and “Sudan” during the rapper’s performance on Sunday night at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
The NFL said the African American protester, who has not been identified, concealed the flag and unveiled it without prior knowledge by the show’s production team.
“We commend security for quickly detaining the individual who displayed the flag,” the NFL said in a released statement. “He was a part of the 400-member field cast. The individual hid the item on his person and unveiled it late in the show. No one involved with the production was aware of the individual’s intent.” The league added that the individual “will banned for life from all NFL stadiums and events.”
Toward the end of Lamar’s performance — after his track “Not Like Us” and right before his final song “TV Off” — the dancer waved the flag while standing on top of a car used as a prop in the performance. The car, a Buick Grand National GNX, inspired the name of Lamar’s latest album, “GNX,” and it was a key prop in the rapper’s halftime show performance.
“Sudan” and “Gaza” were written on the white sections of the flag held by the protester. A heart was drawn next to “Sudan” and a solidarity fist was depicted next to the word “Gaza.” The dancer, who wore a black ensemble matching the other dancers on stage, also jumped off the car and fled the stage while still displaying the flag. He waved it while standing on the ground near other dancers before security personnel tackled and detained him. He was then removed from the field and escorted from the stadium. New Orleans police told USA Today that as of Monday, the performer has not been formally arrested or charged.
The incident took place a day after three more Israeli hostages were freed from Hamas captivity in Gaza, as part of a ceasefire agreement in the war between the terrorist organization and Israel, and while a civil war rages on in Sudan.
The New Orleans Police Department said it “continues to work with NFL and the halftime production team to ascertain any affiliation the individual may have had with the halftime show.”
The entertainment company behind the halftime show, Roc Nation, said in a statement that “the act by the individual was neither planned nor part of the production and was never in any rehearsal.”
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CAIR Accuses Israel of Moving ‘Genocide’ Into West Bank
CAIR officials give press conference on the Israel-Hamas war. Photo: Kyle Mazza / SOPA Images/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), an organization that purports to advocate for Muslim Americans, has accused Israel of “moving the genocide from Gaza to the occupied West Bank,” lambasting the Jewish state for committing a litany of alleged human rights abuses in recent days.
In a Monday statement, CAIR accused Israel of displacing thousands of Palestinian civilians, destroying Palestinian neighborhoods, murdering a pregnant woman and her baby, and unjustly raiding a Palestinian bookstore.
“The radical Israeli government is clearly trying to move its genocidal campaign of slaughter and destruction from Gaza to the West Bank, where Israeli occupation forces are driving thousands of Palestinians from their homes, destroying entire neighborhoods, kidnapping hundreds, and randomly shooting others, including an eight-months pregnant woman and her baby,” CAIR said in its statement. “Indicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu is a sociopath leading an army of war criminals, and our government must stop spending American taxpayer dollars on his latest campaign of murder, ethnic cleansing and destruction in the West Bank.”
In the 16 months following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s cross-border invasion of and massacre across southern Israel from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, the Jewish state has ramped up operations to uproot terrorists in the West Bank.
These efforts intensified last month, when Israel launched a counterterrorism effort in the West Bank coined “Operation Iron Wall”” Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops, gunships, and drones operated in Jenin to extract Palestinian terrorists from the town and its adjacent refugee camps. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the operation was greenlit “on the directive of the security cabinet” with the aim of “bolstering security in Judea and Samaria [Israel’s preferred terminoloy for the West Bank].”
Jenin Mayor Mohammad Jarrar claimed that 150 buildings had been destroyed in the town as a result of the operation, suggesting that Israeli officials approved the operation with the intent of driving out the Palestinian population from the West Bank and annexing the territory.
Israel has long accused Iran of supplying armed factions in Jenin, particularly its refugee camp, with weapons. Palestinian terrorists have long been active in the city. Israel has been especially alarmed by the rise of the Jenin Brigades, a new armed group.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN body responsible for Palestinian refugees, alleged that Israel inflicted “forced displacement” on some 40,000 Palestinians. The Israeli government and research organizations have publicized findings in recent months showing numerous UNRWA-employed staff, including teachers and school principals, are active Hamas members, some of whom were directly involved in Hamas’s Oc t. 7 atrocities, while many others openly celebrated it.
CAIR’s latest accusation against Israel was not its first time stepping into controversy. In the 2000s, the organization was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. Politico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with Hamas.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.” CAIR has disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”
CAIR leaders have also found themselves embroiled in further controversy since Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
The head of CAIR, for example, said he was “happy” to witness Hamas’s rampage of rape, murder, and kidnapping of Israelis in what was the largest single-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.
“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said in a speech during the American Muslims for Palestine convention in Chicago last November. “And yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in.”
CAIR has accused Israel of committing atrocities beyond Gaza and the West Bank. In December, the Islamic group said the Jewish state was guilty of “ethnic cleansing” in Syria following the recent collapse of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s regime, despite the limited nature of Israel’s military operations in the neighboring country.
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