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UN Admits Hamas Lied on Casualty Numbers; But the Damage Is Done

An Israeli tank maneuvers, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza Border, in southern Israel, May 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

Numbers are funny things.

After shouting about Israel and “genocide” — and touting Hamas’ casualty numbers with no verification and obvious flaws — the UN changed its mind this weekend. The old numbers (up to May 6, 2024) looked like this:

34,735 dead, including over 9,500 women and over 14,500 children. [You could, if you wished, extrapolate the number of men/terrorists, but the UN wasn’t going to help you.]

The new numbers (May 8, 2024) are:

24,686 people, including 10,006 men, 4,959 women, and 7,797 children

The UN blames “the fog of war.” Baloney.

There is always fog, but the UN acceptance of Hamas casualty figures led directly to South Africa’s complaint to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of genocide. The ICJ declined to say there was genocide, but Israel was still smeared again across the international media.

The UN and others ignored the work of John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point, and a follower of the nuances and statistics of Israel’s war in Gaza. He has given a master class over the past six month on evaluating military to civilian casualties in urban warfare, and the unprecedented steps that Israel took to minimize those casualties.

His numbers boil down to this:

The current (March 31) Hamas-supplied estimate of over 31,000 does not acknowledge a single combatant death (nor any deaths due to the misfiring of its own rockets or other friendly fire). The IDF estimates it has killed about 13,000 Hamas operatives, which would mean some 18,000 civilians had died, a ratio of roughly 1 combatant to 1.5 civilians. Given Hamas’ likely inflation of the death count, the real figure could be closer to 1 to 1. Either way, the number would be historically low for modern urban warfare.

According to other sources, Spencer notes, civilians usually account for 80-90 percent of casualties, or a 1:9 ratio, in modern war (though this does mix all types of wars). In the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, the AP reported some 10,000 civilians were killed compared to roughly 4,000 ISIS terrorists.

How did it happen that theoretically neutral/reliable sources including the AP, Reuters, NPR, the UN itself swallowed those blatantly false Hamas numbers whole and ignored an actual expert in the field?

Oxfam reported that the death rate in Gaza was higher than any other major conflict in the 20th century.

On October 7, Hamas and its friends entered Israel and killed 1,163 people — a verified number. The victims included a baby who died 14 hours after birth, and a 94-year-old woman. The world was horrified by the numbers and the manner of their death, which included rape, torture, and the burning of people alive.

The world was similarly horrified to discover that 240 people, including Americans, had been dragged into Gaza — most living but some already dead.

Israel’s initial military response was met with a degree of understanding around the world.

Hamas had a dilemma — but also a war strategy to turn the tables.

Having built its military infrastructure under streets, houses, schools, mosques, and UNRWA facilities, Hamas was assured that Israeli action to clear those spaces of terrorist operatives would kill the human shields sitting above. (Especially after Hamas warned Gazans not to flee  and fired on Palestinian civilians using the “safe passage” route.)

In fact, Hamas planned it that way. The more civilians that died, the more Israel would be seen as an out-of-control monster, killing the defenseless in retribution. Committing “genocide.”

And Hamas’ strategy worked.

The first big test was at the Al-Ahli Hospital, where an explosion killed people outside the building. The Gaza Health Ministry (run by Hamas) claimed 500 dead from an Israeli air strike on a protected site. Media around the world went with it. Later evidence showed it was caused by an errant Palestinian rocket aiming for Israel, and that the casualty figure was closer to 50 than 500.

At that point, the “narrative” changed: “I don’t think the question will ever get fully resolved using open source intelligence,” an assistant professor of political science opined. If actual evidence won’t let you blame Israel and politics won’t let you blame Hamas, best to call it foggy and move on.

That’s how it worked. And the numbers caused the flood.

In January, it was the ICJ.

In February, President Biden said Israel’s response was “over the top,”  and began to institute sanctions on individual Israelis and Israeli companies that he intimated were only the beginning.

And, indeed, in May, as Israel geared up for the Rafah battle, the administration announced the withholding of weapons already approved for delivery by Congress. There was also the blackmail/bribe strategy of offering Israel intelligence information if it would limit its incursion. The UN vote elevating Palestinian status was likely a way member states could slap at Israel without repercussions.

Israel is likely to do what it has to do to defend its people. The UN through UNRWA has already shown itself to be an accessory to Hamas and a participant in Hamas war crimes — both in Israel and against its own people. Later, when the “fog of war” dissipates, and the outcomes are closer to the John Spencer model than the Hamas model, the UN should find itself in the dock.

The number change is an attempt to deflect its guilt.

Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly.

The post UN Admits Hamas Lied on Casualty Numbers; But the Damage Is Done first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Blinken Says Russia Received Missiles From Iran, Warns of Threat to European Security

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaks during a strategic dialogue meeting with Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in London, Britain, Sept. 10, 2024. Photo: Alberto Pezzali/Pool via REUTERS

Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran and will likely use them in Ukraine within weeks, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday, warning that cooperation between Moscow and Tehran threatens wider European security.

Blinken, speaking at a news conference in London ahead of a visit to Kyiv alongside Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy, said Washington had privately warned Iran that providing ballistic missiles to Russia would “constitute a dramatic escalation” and said new sanctions would be imposed later on Tuesday.

Russia has now received shipments with these ballistic missiles, and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine, against Ukraine,” Blinken said, citing intelligence that he said has been shared with US allies and partners around the world.

The supply of Iranian missiles enables Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets that are further from the front line in Ukraine, Blinken said.

“This development and the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran threatens European security and demonstrates how Iran‘s destabilizing influence reaches far beyond the Middle East.”

Russia was also sharing technology with Iran, including on nuclear issues, he added.

Additional US sanctions on Iran will include the airline Iran Air, and other countries are also expected to announce new sanctions, Blinken said.

The post Blinken Says Russia Received Missiles From Iran, Warns of Threat to European Security first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Prominent Brown University Trustee Resigns, Condemns Upcoming BDS Vote

More than 200 Brown University students gathered outside University Hall where roughly 40 students sat inside demanding the school divest from weapons manufacturers amid the Israel-Hamas war. Photo: Amy Russo / USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect

A trustee of the Brown University Corporation has resigned from his position, citing the body’s upcoming vote on a proposal to divest the school’s investments linked to Israel or companies that do business with it.

“I disagree with the upcoming divestment vote on Israel,” hedge fund manager Joseph Edelman wrote in an op-ed, published in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, explaining his decision. “I am concerned about what Brown’s willingness to hold such a vote suggests about the university’s attitude toward rising antisemitism on campus and a growing political movement that seeks the destruction of the state of Israel.”

As previously reported, Brown University agreed in May to hold a vote on divestment from Israel, a demand put forth by the anti-Zionist student Brown Divest Coalition (BDC). In exchange, BDC dismantled a “Gaza Solidarity Encampment” they had lived in illegally for three weeks to protest the Israel-Hamas war and the university’s academic and economic ties to Israel. According to The Brown Daily Herald, Brown president Christina Paxson initially only promised the protesters a meeting with members of the Brown Corporation, but the students pushed for more concessions and ultimately coaxed her into making divestment a real possibility.

In May, representatives of BDC met with the Brown Corporation for preliminary talks, the Herald has reported. Since then, they have submitted a report outlining their recommendations for divestment to the university’s Advisory Committee on University Resources Management (ACRUM). ACRUM will, by Sept. 30, review it and issue its own report of recommendations, which Paxson will forward to the Brown Corporation. So far, the president has described their discussions positively, saying in a letter to the campus community that “the members of the Corporation expressed appreciation to the students for sharing their views and perspectives.”

Edelman castigated the university for acceding to demands he says are rooted in antisemitism and murderous intent.

“It’s no coincidence that leading pro-boycott groups have ties to terrorist organizations that seek the annihilation of the Jewish people,” he wrote. “In the end, that is the goal of the BDS movement, and I can’t accept the treatment of a hate movement as legitimate and deserving of a hearing. Brown’s policy of appeasement won’t work. It’s a capitulation to the very hatred that led to the Holocaust and the unspeakable horrors of Oct. 7.”

He added, “It’s as if the Brown board has agreed to vote on whether Israel has a right to exist, and even whether Jews have a right to exist. I consider the willingness to hold this vote a stunning failure of moral leadership at Brown University. I am unwilling to lend my name or give my time to a body that lacks basic moral judgement. I hereby resign from the board of trustees.”

Despite being reputed as one of the most progressive colleges in America, Brown University has until recently fiercely guarded its campus against the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement, which aims to isolate Israel from the world community as the first step towards its destruction. Just months ago, Paxson ordered arrests of dozens of students for unlawful activity and rejected BDS even after BDC amassed inside an administrative building and vowed not to eat until she capitulated.

“We consistently reject calls to use the endowment as a tool for political advocacy on contested issues,” Paxson said in a letter to the students participating in the hunger strike. “Our campus is a place where difficult issues should be freely discussed and debated. It is not appropriate for the university to use its financial assets — which are there to support our entire community  — to ‘take a side’ on issues on which thoughtful people vehemently disagree.”

Paxson’s sudden concession to a group that has cheered terrorism and anti-Jewish hatred could lead to “immediate and profound legal consequences,” two dozen attorneys general warned in a letter late last month.

“It may trigger the application of laws in nearly three-fourths of states prohibiting states and their instrumentalities from contracting with, investing in, or otherwise doing business with entities that discriminate against Israel, Israelis, or those who do business with either,” the missive, written principally by Arkansas state attorney Tim Griffin, explained. “Adopting that proposal may require our states — and others — to terminate any existing relationships with Brown and those associated with it, divest from any university debt held by state pension plans and other investment vehicles, and otherwise refrain from engaging with Brown and those associated with. We therefore urge you to reject this antisemitic and unlawful proposal.”

Thirty-five states in the US have anti-BDS laws on their books, including New York, Texas, Nevada, Illinois, and California. Tennessee passed one in April 2023, and in the same year, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) issued an executive order banning agencies from awarding contracts with companies participating in the BDS movement. The justice system has repeatedly upheld the legality of such measures. In February 2023, the US Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to Arkansas’ anti-BDS law, which argued that requiring contractors to confirm that they are not boycotting Israel before doing business with the University of Arkansas is unconstitutional. Several months later, a federal appeals court dismissed a challenge to Texas’ anti-BDS law, ruling that the plaintiff who brought it lacked standing.

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

The post Prominent Brown University Trustee Resigns, Condemns Upcoming BDS Vote first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Russia Calls Iran ‘Our Important Partner’ Amid Reports of Missile Transfer

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Russian Security Council’s Secretary Sergei Shoigu in Tehran, Iran, Aug. 5, 2024. Photo: Iran’s Presidency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Russia on Monday called Iran “our important partner” while failing to explicitly deny reports that it received short-range ballistic missiles from Tehran to use in its war against Ukraine.

The comments were the latest indication of increased coordination between Moscow and Tehran, a burgeoning partnership that has alarmed Western countries including the US.

CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported last week that Iran had transferred the missiles to Russia, as Moscow continues to wage war in Ukraine after its 2022 invasion.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday said of the reports that “this kind of information is not true every time.” However, he quickly touted Russia’s relationship with Iran and said the relationship would continue to grow.

“Iran is our important partner,” he told reporters. “We are developing our trade and economic relations. We are developing our cooperation and dialogue in all possible areas, including the most sensitive ones, and will continue to do so in the interests of the peoples of our two countries.”

Meanwhile, Iranian officials adamantly denied reports of supplying Russia with missiles.

“We strongly reject allegations about Iran’s role in sending weapons to one side of the war and we assess these allegations as politically motivated by some parties,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said at a press conference.

Separately, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an internationally designated terrorist organization, refuted the reports.

“No missile was sent to Russia and this claim is a kind of psychological warfare,” Fazlollah Nozari was quoted by the Iranian Labour News Agency as saying. “Iran does not support any of the parties to the Ukraine-Russia conflict.”

Despite the denials, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Monday it had summoned a senior Iranian diplomat to warn of “devastating and irreparable consequences” for bilateral relations if the missile reports were correct.

“Iran must completely and definitively stop providing weapons to Russia in order to prove with actions, not words, the sincerity of its political leadership’s statements about non-involvement in fueling the Russian war machine of death,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

US officials expressed alarm over the idea of Iran supplying Russia with missiles.

“Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the White House said.

CIA Director William Burns warned of the growing and “troubling” defense relationship between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea while speaking at a public event in London over the weekend. He said their increased coordination and cooperation threatened not only Ukraine but also Western allies in the Middle East.

The European Union (EU) described as “credible” information provided by allies indicating Iran has supplied short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to help Moscow wage war in Ukraine.

“We are aware of the credible information provided by allies on the delivery of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia,” EU spokesman Peter Stano said. “We are looking further into it with our member states and, if confirmed, this delivery would represent a substantive material escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s illegal war of aggression against Ukraine.”

Stano added that the EU “will respond swiftly and in coordination with international partners, including with new and significant restrictive measures against Iran.”

Western and Ukrainian officials have dismissed denials of Iranian weapons transfers in the past. Russia has been receiving Iranian-made Shahed drones since 2022 and using them against Ukraine, according to analysts and government officials.

Reuters and other media outlets also reported earlier this year that Iran sent ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, indicating the latest reported missile transfer wasn’t the first.

Warming ties between Moscow and Tehran have extended beyond military matters. For the past two years, Iran and Russia have been working on a major comprehensive bilateral agreement to strengthen cooperation in a wide array of areas. Officials from both countries have said in recent months that the deal will be signed in the near future without elaborating.

The post Russia Calls Iran ‘Our Important Partner’ Amid Reports of Missile Transfer first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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