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What Would a Palestinian State Mean for Regional Security, and a War with Iran?

FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Though significant, connections between Palestinian Arab statehood and nuclear war remain generally ignored. For Israel, the seemingly discrete perils of war with Iran and Palestinian Arab statehood are potentially intertwined and mutually reinforcing. This means that continuing to treat these issues as separate security problems could represent an especially grievous policy error.

There are variously clarifying particulars. Once established, a Palestinian state could tilt the balance of power between Israel and Iran. For the moment, there is no law-based Palestinian state (i.e., no Palestinian Arab satisfaction of authoritative requirements delineated at the Montevideo Convention of 1934). But if there should sometime come a point where Palestinian statehood and a direct war with Iran would coincide, the effects could prove determinative. In a worst case scenario, the acceleration of competitive risk-taking in the region would enlarge the risks of unconventional warfare.

For the moment, any direct war between Israel and Iran would be fought without any “Palestine variable.” Ironically, however, one more-or-less plausible outcome of such a war would be more pressure on Israel to accept yet another enemy state. To be sure, Iran’s leaders are unconcerned about Palestinian Arab well-being per se, but even a continuously faux commitment to Palestinian statehood would strengthen their overall power position.

Additionally, any formal creation of “Palestine” would be viewed in Tehran as a favorable development regarding wars fought against Israel. While nothing scientifically meaningful can be said about an unprecedented scenario (in logic and mathematics, true probabilities must always be based upon the determinable frequency of pertinent past events), there are persuasive reasons to expect that “Palestine” would become a reliably belligerent proxy of Iran.

A “Two-State Solution” would enlarge not “only” the jihadist terror threat to Israel (conventional and unconventional), but also prospects for major regional war. Even if such a war were fought while Iran was still pre-nuclear, it could still use radiation dispersal weapons or electromagnetic pulse weapons (EMP) against Israel and/or target the Dimona nuclear reactor with conventional rockets. In a worst case scenario, Iran’s already nuclear North Korean ally would act in direct belligerency against the Jewish State.

In these complex strategic assessments, Israeli-Palestinian negotiations ought never be confined to “general principles.” Rather, variously specific issues will need to be addressed head-on: borders; Jerusalem; relations between Gaza and the “West Bank;” the Cairo Declaration of June 1974 (an annihilationist “phased plan”); and the Arab “right of return” and cancellation of the “Palestine National Charter” (which still calls unambiguously and unapologetically for the eradication of Israel “in stages”).

Not to be overlooked by any means, any justice-based plan would need to acknowledge the historical and legal rights of the Jewish people in Judea and Samaria. Such an acknowledgment would represent an indispensable corrective to lawless Hamas claims of “resistance by any means necessary” and to genocidal Palestinian calls for “liberating” all territories “from the river to the sea.” On its face, the unhidden Palestinian Arab expectation is that Israel would become part of “Palestine.” But this ought not to come as any surprise. All Islamist/Jihadist populations already regard Israel as “occupied Palestine.”

“Everything is very simple in war,” warns classical Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz in On War, “but the simplest thing is still very difficult.” American presidents have always insisted that regional peace be predicated on Arab recognition of the Jewish people’s right to security in their own sovereign nation- state.

Concurrently, most Arab leaders in the Middle East secretly hope for a decisive Israeli victory over Hamas in Gaza and over Hezbollah in Lebanon.

What about North Korea and future Middle Eastern war? Pyongyang has a documented history of active support for Iran and Syria. Regarding ties with Damascus, it was Kim Jung Un who built the Al Kibar nuclear reactor for the Syrians at Deir al-Zor. This is the same facility that was preemptively destroyed by Israel in its “Operation Orchard” (also known in certain Israeli circles as “Operation Outside the Box”) on September 6, 2007.

For Israel, nuclear weapons, doctrine and strategy will remain essential to national survival. In this connection, the country’s traditional policy of “deliberate nuclear ambiguity” or “bomb in the basement” should promptly be updated. The key objective of such dramatic changes would be more credible Israeli nuclear deterrence, a goal that will correlate closely with “selective nuclear disclosure.” Despite being counter-intuitive, Iran will need to become convinced that Israel’s nuclear arms are not too destructive for purposeful operational use. Here, in an arguably supreme irony, the credibility of Israel’s nuclear deterrent could vary inversely with its presumed destructiveness.

For Israeli nuclear deterrence to work longer-term, Iran will need to be told more rather than less about Israel’s nuclear targeting doctrine and about the invulnerability of Israel’s nuclear forces/infrastructures. In concert with such changes, Jerusalem will also need to clarify its still opaque “Samson Option.” The point of such clarifications would not be to suggest Israel’s willingness to “die with the Philistines,” but to enhance the “high destruction” pole of its nuclear deterrence continuum.

If the next US president maintains America’s support of Palestinian statehood, Iran will more likely consider certain direct conflict options vis-à-vis Israel. At some point in these considerations, Israel could need to direct explicit nuclear threats (counter-value and/or counter-force) toward the Islamic Republic. As policy, this posture could represent a “point of no return.”

For Israel, the unprecedented risks of Palestinian statehood could prove irreversible and irremediable. These risks would likely be enlarged if they had to be faced concurrent with an Israel-Iran war. It follows that Jerusalem’s core security obligation should be to keep Iran non–nuclear and to simultaneously prevent Palestinian statehood. From the standpoint of authoritative international law, meeting this two-part obligation would be in the combined interests of counter-terrorism, nuclear war-avoidance and genocide prevention. Prime facie, meeting this overriding obligation would be in the interests of regional and global justice.

Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books, monographs, and scholarly articles dealing with military nuclear strategy. In Israel, he was Chair of Project Daniel. Over recent years, he has published on nuclear warfare issues in Harvard National Security Journal (Harvard Law School); Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists; International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs; The Atlantic; Israel Defense; Jewish Website; The New York Times; Israel National News; The Jerusalem Post; The Hill and other sites. A version of this article appeared in Israel National News.

The post What Would a Palestinian State Mean for Regional Security, and a War with Iran? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Condemnation from Ottawa led an Islamic group’s conference to be cancelled

A conference supporting a return to “caliphate” rule in the Middle East was cancelled within hours of a scorching condemnation from federal public safety ministers.

The statement was posted Jan. 13 by Rachel Bendayan, the Montreal MP recently named to the associate minister role in the public safety ministry. It was attributed to her and David McGuinty, the public safety minister. The message called the planned Jan. 18 event “deeply concerning.”

Islamist group Hizb ut Tahrir has been banned in the U.K. and Germany, and a previous attempt to host the conference in the Toronto area in January 2024 was cancelled after the U.K. declared the group a terrorist entity, according to reports from the Associated Press.

“Hizb ut-Tahrir has a documented history of glorifying violence and promoting antisemitism and extremist ideology,” read the statement from Bendayan and McGuinty, naming the group’s “celebration of attacks on innocent civilians, including Oct. 7, and its support for banned terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah” and condemning its activities and the conference taking place, calling on organizers to cancel.

“We have been assured that law enforcement agencies, including the RCMP, are monitoring the event closely and that all appropriate Canadian laws, including those pertaining to hate speech, will be enforced. Further, we can confirm that our security and intelligence agencies are currently assessing Hizb ut Tahrir for listing as a terrorist entity under Canadian law,” read the public safety ministers’ joint statement.

“Our government is resolute in its efforts to fight antisemitism and extremism in all its forms. We will continue to work with law enforcement and community partners to ensure the safety and security of all Canadians.”

The Hizb ut Tahrir Canada group had previously issued a rare media statement defending its legitimate political goals and insisting the event was peaceful. However, the cancellation notice, posted “with regret” Jan. 14, said the decision to cancel “was necessitated by circumstances that were beyond our reasonable control.”

Iddo Moed, Israel’s Ambassador to Canada, confirmed in an interview with The CJN Jan. 14 that his office raised concerns about the group, and warned of a need to “keep vigilant” to act against what he called “hateful” and “dangerous” messages spreading in Canada.

“Whatever events are happening, when we think that they are dangerous, they’re inciteful, they are about to spread more hate and intimidation, of course we raise a flag, and we use our channels of communication with the highest levels in the provincial or federal level, to address and to reach out to the leaders and to draw to the attention that this is taking place. We also provide information. It’s extremely important.”

Moed confirmed to The CJN that this was the case with the Hizb ut Tahrir conference.

“We have to respect the fact that others have different opinions. So there is a very thin line that we are actually around. We are around that all the time, that is, between what is acceptable and not acceptable in society, and actually we have to be very vigilant these days, and we have to be very well aware of where we stand and what do we stand for, and what we will not tolerate.”

Moed echoed calls from groups like the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA), whose petition to McGuinty to list the group as a terror entity has received 13,000 signatures online.

“Yes, I think that Canada should designate this organization as a terrorist entity under the criminal law, as it has done with Samidoun and many others,” Moed told The CJN. “It is called for other countries. I’ve done that. So this is also a call for Canada to do [the] same, absolutely.”

Moed said federal authorities were “very well aware of” the group, though he says more needs to be done “to prevent such people even to come in and to spread [these kinds] of hateful messages.”

CIJA said in a statement from Michelle Stock, Ontario vice-president in response to the announcement that the conference was cancelled, that “our community and allies have made our voices heard—and we’ve made an impact.

“This is important progress in keeping Canadians safe. We are relieved that this conference isn’t happening, but we also know that the fight against extremism cannot stop. We will continue to urge the Government of Canada to ban Hizb ut-Tahrir as an illegal terrorist organization, as is the case in the UK and Germany.”

Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center (FSWC) and B’nai Brith Canada, along with CIJA, had pushed for federal authorities to add the group to the list of recognized terror entities under the Criminal Code, for antisemitic, extremist, “anti-Western ideology,” and glorification of terrorism.

FSWC called the cancellation “an important victory in the fight against extremism and hate in Canada,” shutting down the “controversial conference planned by an Islamist group notorious for antisemitic, extremist rhetoric.”

But the president and CEO of FSWC, wrote in a statement that “it’s not enough.”

“The Canadian government must take the necessary measures to list this organization as a terror group under Canadian law, ensuring that it will never again have the opportunity to propagate its vile, extremist ideology in our country,” wrote Michael Levitt.

“Hizb ut Tahrir Canada, the Canadian branch of Hizb ut-Tahrir—an organization that advocates for the re-establishment of an Islamic caliphate governed by Sharia law… is banned in the UK, Germany and several other countries.”

The conference location was reported by some news outlets as being in Hamilton, Ont., having being moved from Mississauga, Ont., just west of Toronto.

Mississauga Mayor Carolyn Parrish had posted online Jan. 5, calling Hizb ut Tahrir a “very extreme group,” later saying Mississauga residents were glad it wouldn’t be held there anymore after the reports it might be moved to Hamilton.

The conference website had previously said it was to take place in Mississauga, and would include lunch and childcare on Jan. 18. The notice was changed and the location was not provided to registrants. Eventbrite, an online ticketing platform, had dropped the event from its website.

Hamilton Mayor Andrea Horwath said the city would “unequivocally refuse access to any group that engages in or promotes hatred or any form of divisive behaviour.”

In an interview with The CJN on Jan. 13, before the cancellation announcement, Howard Fremeth, CIJA’s vice-president of communications, said that the event was concerning whether it was to take place in Mississauga, Hamilton, or elsewhere in Ontario or Canada.

“This week it might be Mississauga or Hamilton, but in two weeks it might be in Edmonton or it might be in Halifax or it might be in my hometown of Ottawa. I think that means that we as a Jewish community, first off, we need to rally together nationally behind this, and we also have to work with our friends and allies across Canada.”

Muslim community members publicly denounced the conference including a statement from the Global Imams Council (GIC), whose Western headquarters are in Toronto. The group called the conference a “blatant attempt to spread extremism under the guise of free speech” in a letter to McGuinty urging federal intervention and to prevent the event from taking place.

“Allowing such an event to proceed in Canada risks undermining years of effort by Muslims who seek to build bridges of mutual respect and understanding,” read the statement issued on Jan. 10.

“Hizb ut-Tahrir is known globally for its radical ideology, rejection of democratic principles, and open advocacy for a global Islamist caliphate, a stance that directly contradicts Canadian values of democracy, peace, and coexistence.

“This event, if allowed to proceed, poses a significant threat to social cohesion. The very notion of a conference promoting the establishment of a caliphate within Canada is deeply alarming and offensive, not only to the broader Canadian public but also to the overwhelming majority of Muslims in the country who uphold democratic values and actively contribute to Canada’s multicultural society.”

The letter warned that Hizb ut-Tahrir’s stated agenda and “extremist rhetoric” divide and “isolate Muslims from the rest of society. Muslim youth have proven to be particularly vulnerable to their ideology and tactics. It is for these reasons that over 17 countries, including Germany, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, have taken decisive legal action against the group.

“Allowing such an event to proceed in Canada risks undermining years of effort by Muslims who seek to build bridges of mutual respect and understanding,” the GIC letter read. It also requested a federal review leading to a possible formal ban of the organization in Canada.

“As an organization with a well-documented history of spreading divisive and extremist rhetoric, Hizb ut-Tahrir has been banned in over 17 countries worldwide. Its ideology not only threatens national unity but also isolates Muslim communities and endangers vulnerable youth,” read the letter from GIC to McGuinty.

In a media statement released Jan. 6, Hizb ut Tahrir Canada wrote that it “categorically rejects the use of violence,” and said “the accusations linking the party to terrorism, extremism and violent activities are fabrications aimed at tarnishing its reputation and distracting from its call to establish Islam as a comprehensive system of governance and mercy for humanity.”

The group called itself “an ideological and political party that works exclusively through intellectual and political struggle” and said its “sole objective is the resumption of the Islamic way of life through the re-establishment of the Khilafah (Caliphate) in the Muslim world on the method of the Prophethood, as obligated by the Quran and Sunnah.”

The statement said “baseless allegations” against the group were “part of a wider effort to distort” Hizb ut Tahrir’s image and “suppress its legitimate political call.”

With files from Ellin Bessner.

The post Condemnation from Ottawa led an Islamic group’s conference to be cancelled appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.

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Nearly Half of World’s Adults Hold Antisemitic Views, ADL Survey Finds

A pro-Hamas march in London, United Kingdom, Feb. 17, 2024. Photo: Chrissa Giannakoudi via Reuters Connect

Nearly half of the world’s adults hold antisemitic beliefs, according to a new “Global 100 Index” survey conducted by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL).

Some 58,000 people from over 100 countries participated in the survey, the ADL said, and their responses underscored the extent to which antisemitic conspiracies and tropes are enjoying a revival in the digital age, having received new means of exportation across the world.

A striking 46 percent of the world’s adult population — an estimated 2.2 billion people — harbor “deeply entrenched antisemitic attitudes,” the survey found, the highest level on record since the ADL began tracking such trends globally.

Meanwhile, 56 percent of respondents reported to believe that “Jews loyalty is only to Israel,” and 46 percent said “Jews have too much control over global affairs.” Young adults are by far more likely than their older peers to have formed negative perceptions of Jews, believing, for example, that they “have a lot of irritating faults” and “don’t care what happens to anyone” who isn’t Jewish, the ADL results showed.

“Antisemitism is nothing short of a global emergency, especially in a post-Oct. 7 world. We are seeing these trends play out from the Middle East to Asia, from Europe to North and South America,” ADL chief executive officer Jonathan Greenblatt said in a statement regarding the survey’s findings. “Negative attitudes towards Jews are an important pillar that ADL uses to asses overall levels of antisemitism within a country, and our findings are deeply alarming. It’s clear that we need new government interventions, more education, additional safeguards on social media, and new security protocols to prevent antisemitic hate crimes. This fight requires. a whole-of-society-approach including government, civil society, and individuals and now is the time to act.”

An Algemeiner review of the study shows that antisemitic attitudes are heavily concentrated in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), where inhabitants are more likely to support boycotting Israel to the point that even diplomatic relations are nonexistent. For example, 97 percent of respondents in Gaza and the West Bank subscribe to antisemitic tropes. More broadly, 76 percent of MENA respondents accept as true 11 antisemitic stereotypes and tropes presented by the survey questionnaire, compared to 51 percent of Asian respondents and 49 percent of Eastern Europeans. The Americas, Western Europe, and Oceania measured considerably lower in this regard, but still averaged approximately one in five adults who believe in antisemitic stereotypes.

Other statistics reveal the poor state of Holocaust education, as a striking 20 percent of respondents worldwide said they have not heard of the Nazi genocide perpetrated against European Jewry during Word War II. Less than half (48 percent) recognize the Holocaust’s “historical accuracy.” Among young adults ages 18-34, that figure falls to 39 percent.

In addition to Holocaust skepticism, some 40 percent of adults under 35 blame Jews for starting “most of the world’s wars,” while only 29 percent of adults over 50 share that belief.

“Antisemitic tropes and beliefs are becoming alarmingly normalized across societies worldwide. This dangerous trend is not just a threat to Jewish communities — it’s a warning to us all. Even in countries with the lowest levels of antisemitic attitudes globally, we’ve sen many antisemitic incidents perpetrated by an emboldened, small vocal, and violent minority. This is a wake-up call for collective action, and we are committed to continuing our work with out partners around the world and mitigate this deeply ingrained antisemitism,” said Marina Rosenberg, ADL senior vice president for international affairs.

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

The post Nearly Half of World’s Adults Hold Antisemitic Views, ADL Survey Finds first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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This convicted 1980 synagogue bomber is not currently teaching at Carleton University in Ottawa

A former part-time instructor at Carleton University, whose conviction in absentia for a 1980 Paris synagogue bombing has drawn widespread attention, is not teaching at the institution this semester according to a university spokesperson.

“Hassan Diab is a former part-time contract instructor who taught a course at the university last fall,” Steven Reid, the media relations officer at the school in Ottawa, wrote in a statement to The Canadian Jewish News. “He is not in the employment of Carleton.”

Reid did not disclose any further details, stating privacy considerations.

Diab’s employment at Carleton—last semester he headed a course called Social Justice in Action—sparked controversy both domestically and internationally. Convicted in absentia in 2023 by a French court for his alleged role in a bombing of the Rue Copernic synagogue in Paris, which killed four people and injured dozens, he has maintained his innocence throught—claiming he was in Lebanon at the time of the attack.

The Canadian government’s refusal to extradite Diab back to France remains a focal point of the ongoing legal and diplomatic discussions.

B’nai Brith Canada, which has been vocal about Diab’s employment, applauded Carleton for what it described as a “necessary step” in ending his role at the university, although there is no confirmation that Diab won’t return.

“Diab’s employment as a lecturer was a betrayal of the Canadian values of justice, safety, and accountability,” B’nai Brith stated on Jan. 10. “This decision is an important acknowledgment of the need to ensure our educational institutions prioritize the well-being and academic success of their students.”

B’nai Brith also reiterated its support for Diab’s extradition to France: “We remain steadfast in our mission to combat hate and antisemitism and ensure that justice is upheld.”

Speaking anonymously, one Jewish student at Carleton told The Canadian Jewish News there is speculation about whether the university’s decision was related to low enrolment numbers for Diab’s course, or broader pressure stemming from advocacy efforts.

“Many of us, like myself, are planning on taking a wait-and-see approach to see if he’s back in the hall,” the student said.

“I would like to know what happened,” he added, citing uncertainty as to whether Diab’s contract was terminated or never issued for the winter semester. I think a lot of other students would like to know as well.”

Iddo Moed, the Israeli ambassador to Canada, has also been lobbying for Carleton to take action.

“We came to the conclusion that a respectable academic institution that allows a terrorist to be a teacher and give a course on their premises is principally wrong that we have to make the public aware,” Moed said in an interview with The Canadian Jewish News.

Moed further elaborated on his personal connection to the case in a Nov. 13 opinion piece for the National Post. Aliza Shagrir, the mother of his colleague Hagai Shagrir—head of the Asia-Pacific Division of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs—was one of the victims of the 1980 Copernic synagogue bombing.

In his commentary, Moed wrote that Shagrir was “the mother of my friend and colleague, Hagai, a teenager at the time who survived only because he had returned early to his hotel room. To this day, Hagai remains traumatized and laments having gone through life without his mother.”

In November, nine public research universities in Israel—coordinated by the Association of University Heads of Israel—collectively urged Carleton to terminate Diab’s employment. The letter, obtained by The Canadian Jewish News, described the hiring “betrayal of academic values” and a failure to uphold justice.

“How can an institution dedicated to instilling moral principles in its students justify appointing someone convicted of such serious crimes to a teaching position?” the letter asked. “This hiring decision crosses a clear ethical line.”

The Canadian Jewish News reached out to Hassan Diab’s lawyer for comment on the situation but did not receive a response.

Moed has also been vocal about the broader implications of Diab’s case, particularly its impact on universities and Jewish communities.

“We see not only Hassan Diab, but we see other figures who have very clear anti-semitic agendas appearing in universities and speaking freely, as if what they are presenting is the reality, and it is entirely flawed and wrong,” he said.

“Presenting their reality, a distorted reality, as a fact, and starting the discussion from there is, of course, wrong. And so when we are talking to university leaders around the country, I’m speaking not just about the encampments and all this intimidating behaviour that has been experienced by Jewish students there.”

The Copernic Affair, a Canadaland podcast miniseries about the circumstances surrounding the case of Hassan Diab, is set for release on Jan. 22.

The post This convicted 1980 synagogue bomber is not currently teaching at Carleton University in Ottawa appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.

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