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Why Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable

An UNRWA aid truck at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

Heated debates over the Palestinian death toll in the Hamas-Israel war tend to focus on the fact that widely cited fatality numbers make no distinction between combatants and noncombatants. While this is true, it misses a more fundamental problem: the numbers themselves have lost any claim to validity.

In the first month of the war, the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health (MOH) in Gaza relied on its existing collection system, made up primarily of hospitals and morgues, to certify each death.

Starting in early November, however, hospitals in northern Gaza began to shut down or evacuate during the Israeli ground invasion, spurring the MOH to introduce a new, undefined methodology for counting fatalities: media reports. This methodology, which the MOH has rarely acknowledged publicly, accounts for the majority of fatalities reported over the past four months, surpassing the traditional collection system.

A comparison of the two methodologies, using MOH reports and claims published by the Hamas-controlled Government Media Office (GMO), yields wildly different and irreconcilable results, indicating that the media reports methodology is dramatically understating fatalities among adult males, the demographic most likely to be combatants. This undercuts the persistent claim that 72 percent of those killed in Gaza are women and children — a problematic claim that has worsened since it was first noted by a Washington Institute report in January.

The result is that MOH statistics do not appear to offer a reliable guide to the actual Palestinian death toll even by the “foggy” standards of normal wartime reporting. Journalists, analysts, and government officials need to be aware that the actual overall death toll may be significantly higher (or, less likely, lower) than what the MOH has reported; the demographic composition of these fatalities is certainly far different than what the MOH claims.

Building a Database

To assess this problem, the author has assembled a comprehensive collection of publicly available Gaza fatality data that includes:

Daily updates covering the period October 7 through March 21, obtained from four sources: the Hamas-run MOH in Gaza, the Hamas-run GMO, the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Health in Ramallah, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) (which simply relays Gaza MOH/GMO claims, sometimes inaccurately).
Compiled data from 13 Health Sector Emergency Reports published by the Gaza MOH between December 11 and March 18 (these documents can be accessed via the MOH Telegram channel or the Internet Archive).
Two comprehensive MOH data releases on October 26 and January 7 (the latter covering up to November 2 for all of Gaza and up to January 5 for the south).

The following analysis is based primarily on the Health Sector Emergency Reports and occasional GMO updates.

If interested, you can download a condensed version of the author’s database. (The full database with sources, methodology, and other information will be published on a future date.)

Limitations of Media Reports

The regular methodology used by the MOH (hereafter the “central collection system”) records deaths at hospitals and morgues, along with deaths reported by the Palestinian Red Crescent Society ambulance service and other unspecified sources (for a more detailed explanation of these practices, see the author’s January study). This methodology is well-understood and has been relatively accurate in the past.

Unlike in previous conflicts, however, neither OCHA nor local and international NGOs are currently conducting real-time fatality verification in Gaza or attempting to distinguish between civilians and combatants. Moreover, only a third of Gaza’s hospitals are even partially functional, and many parts of the Strip have serious access problems, curtailing the use of this methodology to count deaths outside of Rafah and Khan Yunis governorates.

On November 10, the MOH announced that it could no longer report deaths from two northern governorates; a month later, officials acknowledged that they were relying on what they called “reliable media sources” to report deaths in those areas. In reality, they had begun using this methodology as early as November 3, according to the MOH dataset released on January 7.

To be sure, it is not uncommon to use news reports when attempting to count deaths in chaotic battlespaces with access issues and damaged institutions. Yet this practice is notoriously difficult and typically looks backward rather than attempting a real-time count. The reliability of any such effort is greatly dependent on its methodological details, but the MOH has refused to elaborate on how it collects this data, which is a major problem given that media reports have become the dominant input in the Gaza death toll, accounting for more than 14,000 reported fatalities.

Comparing the Methodologies

Despite known problems with the MOH central collection system (outlined in more detail in the January study), it is the more reliable methodology because it involves identity verification and counting of actual bodies.

Media reports, by contrast, are much more difficult to verify, regularly lack details necessary to determine the identities or disposition of those killed, and may double-count or miss many fatalities. The divergence between the two methodologies is perhaps best shown by how differently they have reported demographic details about Gaza deaths.

For instance, the MOH Health Sector Emergency Reports provide separate data on men, women, and children when their deaths are recorded through the central collection system, but only a single aggregated figure for deaths gleaned from media reports. When these reports coincide with the GMO’s periodic reports (which provide demographic breakdowns), one can compare how they treat fatalities among different demographic groups.

This comparison reveals sharp differences — most notably, a sixfold decrease in adult male fatalities recorded from media reports and a fourfold increase in child fatalities. (For reference, children make up roughly 50% of Gaza’s population, and men and women make up a quarter each.)

Some of these differences may be explained by the fact that media reports are unlikely to capture combatant deaths accurately due to access issues and fear of retribution for exposing Hamas losses. In most cases, however, the numbers are too far apart to be reconcilable, or too divorced from the realities on the ground to be credible.

For example, according to the media reports methodology, only 1,192 men had been killed in northern and central Gaza as of March 18, despite four and a half months of heavy ground fighting (see the author’s condensed database). Five days later, that number inexplicably decreased to 1,170 — a feat that would have required 22 men to somehow come back to life by March 23 in order to reconcile the central collection system data with the overall claim. In contrast, Israeli authorities estimate that 13,000 militants have been killed — a figure that may incorporate many combatant deaths not recorded by either MOH methodology.

Without clarification from the MOH, such findings suggest significant omission or manipulation aimed at understating the number of men killed and overstating the number of children killed. One possibility is that fatalities among militants — most of whom are men — are more likely to go unreported because they occur in tunnels or on battlefields, where most reporters are either unable to access bodies or unwilling to risk Hamas retribution or the dangers of combat zones. Another possibility is active manipulation — that is, using the media reports methodology as a smokescreen for altering the data in support of the claim that 72% of those killed are women and children.

Meanwhile, data from the central collection system indicates a sharp decrease in overall deaths since November and a sustained increase in the proportion of men killed.

In addition to the MOH’s growing reliance on the media reports methodology, these trends may reflect various factors on the ground, such as Israel’s shift from a primarily air-based campaign to ground fighting, the mass evacuation of civilians from the north to Rafah governorate, and the decreasing intensity of fighting in areas where the central collection system is still functioning. Such factors would be expected to reduce overall civilian casualties and therefore increase the proportion of adult men killed, since that is the demographic most likely to serve as combatants.

Caveats and Recommendations

This analysis is solely intended to compare various Hamas fatality claims against each other and raise questions about the resultant discrepancies. It makes no claims about the true death toll in Gaza or the civilian-combatant ratio, nor is it meant to distract from the very real and widespread loss of life in Gaza and the severe humanitarian crisis that its population continues to suffer.

Regarding the over-representation of men in the fatality statistics, this point is not intended to imply that all Gazan men are militants. Rather, adult men are the most likely to be militants across any group (though Hamas is known to use children in combat and support roles). Their overrepresentation has also been used to help estimate militant deaths in the past.

Caveats aside, the above findings should prompt analysts, media outlets, and government officials to bear the following points in mind when assessing Gaza fatality statistics:

The discrepancies between the methodologies for counting fatalities warrant much more intense scrutiny and should be paired with appropriate caveats if cited. Whether through passive omission, active manipulation, or both, the Gaza Health Ministry’s media reports methodology significantly understates the number of men killed and may overstate the number of children killed.
The repeated claim that 72% of the dead are women and children is very likely incorrect. Data from the central collection system indicates that 58% of those killed since the start of the war are women and children; this figure drops to 48% for those killed since November 3. For the 72% claim to be accurate, women and children would have to make up about 90% of deaths recorded from media reports. This proportion is implausible — men comprise a quarter of the population, and these fatalities have largely occurred in areas with fewer civilians and more combatants, most of whom are adult men.
Data from both methodologies suggests that the war has decreased in intensity. Fatalities have declined from an average of 348 per day in the first weeks of the war to around 85 per day in March.
The existing data is too limited to allow for definitive conclusions about the true death toll or the civilian-combatant ratio. A high proportion of reported deaths come from an unknown methodology that may be misrepresenting the data, while enormous uncertainty persists regarding how many combatant fatalities go uncounted in tunnels and other battlespaces. The exact proportions of men, women, and children killed are even more unclear. The available data does not allow for reliable estimates about the ratio of civilians to combatants killed either, whether independently or by comparison with Israeli estimates.

Gabriel Epstein is a Research Assistant at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where this article was originally published.

The post Why Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Imam at New Orleans Terrorist’s Local Mosque Says Jews ‘Like to Take Control of the Economy’

A member of the National Guard Military Police stands, in the area where people were killed by a man driving a truck in an attack during New Year’s celebrations, in New Orleans, Louisiana, US, Jan. 2, 2025. PHoto: REUTERS/Octavio Jones

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the man who according to law enforcement perpetrated the New Year’s Day terrorist attack in New Orleans, lived in Houston near a mosque led by a radical imam who preached that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler killed Jews because “they like to take control of the economy.”

The connection has raised questions about the ideology of Jabbar, a US Army veteran who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group. The FBI revealed on Thursday that Jabbar acted alone and that on the morning of the truck ramming attack, in which at least 14 people were killed and dozens more were injured, he posted several videos on social media saying he supported ISIS. An ISIS flag was also found on the trailer hitch of the rented vehicle involved in the New Orleans attack. In one of his recordings, Jabbar revealed that he initially intended to hurt his friends and family, but changed plans because he wanted to bring attention to the “war between believers and the disbelievers.”

Amid heightened concern about the threat of Islamist terrorism, observers are noting that Jabbar may have been radicalized at Masjid Bilal, a mosque in the northern Houston community where he lived. According to footage published by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) on Thursday, Imam Eiad Soudan, leader of the Masjid Bilal mosque in Houston, told congregants in November 2023 that Jews seek to “control the economy” across the world and that Hitler perpetrated the Holocaust to mitigate Jewish economic power. Soudan also argued that Europe only supports Israel as a means to prevent Jews from migrating into their countries. 

“Why does the whole world want them to stay in Palestine?” he said. “Because if they don’t stay in Palestine, they will go back to their countries, and those people, unfortunately, have one problem — well, they have many problems, but that’s one of the main problems — they like to take control of the economy. Everywhere they go, whatever is the rule, as long as they get to the goal, the means don’t matter.”

Although Masjid Bilal is reportedly located a few minutes walk from Jabbar’s residence, the extent of his connection to the mosque is unknown.

According to law enforcement, Jabbar was fatally shot by police when he exited his truck and opened fire after driving his vehicle into a crowd of New Year’s revelers.

On Thursday, New York Post reporter Jennie Taer led a tour of Jabbar’s purported home, which had been raided by the FBI. The residence contained a variety of harmful chemicals, including bottles of sulfuric acid. The tour also revealed a “work station” with tools located in a presumed bedroom. A closet within the home also contained a keffiyeh, a traditional headscarf worn by Palestinians that has become known as a symbol of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and opposition to Israel.

Jabbar’s brother, Abdur Rahim-Jabbar, told Fox News that his sibling was likely radicalized by an extremist interpretation of Islam. 

Experts have warned of a rising global terror threat in the year following Hamas’s invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Last May, experts explained to The Algemeiner that “lone wolf” terrorists  inspired by ISIS and al Qaeda could carry out attacks on US soil, incensed by the ongoing war in Gaza and inspired by terrorist violence abroad. 

“As I look back over my career in law enforcement, I’m hard-pressed to come up with a time when I’ve seen so many different threats, all elevated, all at the same time,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in April.

The post Imam at New Orleans Terrorist’s Local Mosque Says Jews ‘Like to Take Control of the Economy’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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‘Join Hezbollah and Kill Jews’: Pennsylvania Man Indicted on Terrorism Charges

Members of Hezbollah carry the coffin of Hezbollah member Abbas Shuman, who was killed in southern Lebanon amidst tension between Israel and Hezbollah, during his funeral in Baalbek, Lebanon, Oct. 23, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amr Alfiky

A grand jury has federally indicted an American who absconded to the Middle East with the intention of joining Hezbollah — the Iran-backed Shia terrorist organization based in Lebanon — the US Department of Justice announced on Thursday.

The action affirmed the veracity of evidence that Jack Danaher Molloy, 24, had “attempted to provide material support and resources” to Hezbollah both in and out of the US, operating in his home state of Pennsylvania as well as in Syria and Lebanon between August and December 2024.

The venture ultimately proved unsuccessful, however, as Molloy — a dual citizen of Ireland and former active duty soldier for the US Army — was, according to the department, rejected by his would-be terrorist colleagues. They reportedly told him that “the time was not right” for his enlistment.

Molloy eventually returned to the US, where he made additional overtures to Hezbollah by contacting people online, some of whom lived in Lebanon. Throughout this time, he proclaimed himself to be pathologically antisemitic.

“Molloy, also allegedly expressed his hatred toward, and promoted violence against, Jewish people,” the Justice Department said. “Molloy’s alleged animus towards Jews was also evidenced by multiple images and and videos on his electronic devises and the usernames he chose for his social media and email accounts, including the username “K—EKILLER313″ on the social media platform X.”

It continued, “In one alleged WhatsApp exchange with a family member, Molloy agreed that his ‘master plan was to join Hezbollah and kill Jews.’ And while he was residing in Upper St. Clair, Molloy also allegedly visited a website detailing the possible incarceration location of Robert Bowers, who carried out the Pittsburgh Tree of Life Synagogue shooting during which he murdered 11 Jewish worshippers.”

Hezbollah had been at war with Israel from October 2023, when the terrorist group began launching rockets at the Jewish state in solidarity with the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza,  until November 2024, when a ceasefire was reached to halt fighting in northern Israel and neighboring Lebanon. Molloy’s activities coincided with a surge in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, during which the former intensified air strikes and launched ground operations in Lebanon, pummeling Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles.

Molloy now faces a slew of charges, both for providing “material support” for a terrorist organization and lying to the FBI about it, which happened when agents questioned him at the Pittsburgh International Airport in October 2024. If convicted, he could serve up to 28 years in prison.

US federal law enforcement officials have been actively investigating and securing convictions against antisemitic extremists.

In one such case resolved last month, a Jordanian expatriate, Hashem Younis Hashem Hnaihen, who was federally charged in August for attacking an energy facility and threatening to bomb businesses that he deemed supportive of Israel, pleaded guilty to his crimes, which included vandalizing small businesses in Orange County, Florida, and leaving “Warning Letters” addressed to the US government in which he vowed to “destroy or explode everything here in America. Especially the companies and factories that support the racist state of Israel.”

Later, he breached an energy facility in Wedgefield, Florida, where he “smashed” scores of solar panels and damaged other “electronic equipment.” The spree of infrastructure sabotage lasted “for hours,” the Justice Department added, destroying $700,000 worth of technology. In early July, Hnaihen left a final warning letter at an industrial propane gas distribution depot located in the city of Orlando., according to federal prosecutors. The Orange County Sheriff’s Department arrested him on July 11.

On Dec. 20, Hnaihen conceded to the federal government its case against him, pleading guilty to “four counts of threatening to use explosives and one count of destruction of an energy facility.” His plea also contained a promise to “make full restitution” to his victims, a debt he will likely repay by working a job in prison, where he stands to spend as many as 60 years.

Additionally, in October, federal prosecutors helped convict a gunman who shot two Jewish men as they exited a synagogue in Los Angeles.

Jaime Tran, 30 — an affiliate of the “Goyim Defense League” hate group — had attempted to murder two Jewish men in the Pico-Robertson section of Los Angeles in February 2023. Prior to the crimes, Tran called Jews “primitive” and told a former classmate, “Someone is going to kill you, Jew” and “I want you dead, Jew.” According to the Justice Department, he even described himself as a “ticking time bomb,” broadcasting his murderous ideation to all who knew him.

After declining to fight the federal government’s case against him, Tran pled guilty in June to four charges the department described as “hate crimes with intent to kill” and “using, carrying, and discharging a firearm” in the commission of an act of violence. His sentencing of 35 years ensures that he will not again be free until the year 2059.

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

The post ‘Join Hezbollah and Kill Jews’: Pennsylvania Man Indicted on Terrorism Charges first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Biden Discussed Striking Iran Nuclear Facilities if Tehran Dashes for Bomb: Report

US President Joe Biden addresses rising levels of antisemitism, during a speech at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Annual Days of Remembrance ceremony, at the US Capitol building in Washington, DC, US, May 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

US President Joe Biden recently discussed plans for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities prior to his Jan. 20 departure from office if the Iranian regime makes substantial progress toward a nuclear weapon, according to a new report.

In a meeting “several weeks ago,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented Biden with a variety of options to decimate Iran’s capabilities to generate nuclear weapons, Axios revealed on Thursday.

Biden was not presented with new information during the secret meeting, which was reportedly conducted for the purpose of “prudent scenario planning” on how the US should respond to Iran ramping up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

No decisions were made during the meeting, and there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Axios reported.

Some members of Biden’s team have argued that the combination of Iran’s increased nuclear activity and its weakened military state due to Israel’s war against its terrorist proxies has given Washington an opportunity to strike the regime.

In the year following the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, the Israeli military has decimated key pieces of Iran’s proxy network in the Middle East — most notably Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel also set back Iran’s ballistic missile production and extensively damaged its air defense system with an October strike against Iranian military targets.

The Israeli military campaign has, according to experts, left Iran particularly vulnerable at home and hindered the regime’s ability to project power across the Middle East.

However, many observers fear that Iran may opt to break out toward a nuclear weapon in order to bolster its deterrence. Sullivan expressed that concern last month.

“If you’re Iran right now and you’re looking around at the fact that your conventional capability has been reduced, your proxies have been reduced, your main client state has been eliminated, [Syrian leader Bashar al] Assad has fallen, it’s no wonder there are voices saying: ‘Hey, maybe we need to go for a nuclear weapon right now,’” he told CNN.

Some experts have argued such statements indicate more of a willingness by the US to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities preemptively than ever before.

“By saying this, the current administration, which has previously been reluctant to attack Iran, is signaling concern and suggesting that the US might have to act,” Professor Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, told The Media Line. “There is more willingness now in the US to act preemptively.”

It is unclear whether Biden’s team has discussed the prospect of striking Iranian nuclear sites with the incoming Trump administration, which is expected to adopt a tougher overall posture toward Iran.

Iran has claimed that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes rather than building weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, reported earlier last month that Iran had greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade at its Fordow site dug into a mountain.

The UK, France, and Germany said in a recent statement that there is no “credible civilian justification” for Iran’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”

The post Biden Discussed Striking Iran Nuclear Facilities if Tehran Dashes for Bomb: Report first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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