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Four Years After Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion, Peace Requires Leverage — Not Capitulation

Rescuers work at the site of the apartment building hit by a Russian drone during a Russian missile and drone strike, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Dec. 27, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi

Four years ago, Russian armored columns pushed toward Kyiv, expecting a swift collapse of the Ukrainian state. That collapse never came.

Russia failed in its central objective. Kyiv did not fall. Ukraine’s government did not crumble. NATO did not fracture. What Vladimir Putin sought to prevent remains intact: a sovereign, Western-aligned Ukraine.

Russia today occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and large swaths of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Much of that territory was seized either in 2014 or during the early months of the 2022 invasion. Since then, Moscow’s gains have been incremental and costly, measured in devastated villages rather than decisive breakthroughs.

Ukraine, despite facing a significant infantry shortage, continues to hold Russia to incremental gains while inflicting heavy casualties. The war has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of soldiers and displaced millions of civilians. Cities such as Mariupol, Bakhmut, and Severodonetsk lie in ruins.

But the consequences of this war extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Europe has begun to rearm, addressing chronic underinvestment in defense since the end of the Cold War. As a result of the Russian invasion, Finland and Sweden joined NATO, doubling the alliance’s border with Russia, a strategic setback the Kremlin apparently didn’t anticipate. Energy markets have been reshaped as European states have largely weaned themselves off Russian oil and gas. Washington and its allies have been forced to rethink deterrence, force posture, and industrial capacity for sustained conflict.

In Ukraine, Putin faces a dilemma: he cannot impose the outcome he wants on the battlefield, yet he refuses to scale back his maximalist demands. So, the Kremlin has turned negotiations into another front in the war. Moscow has sought to use diplomacy to split the United States from Ukraine and Europe and enlist US help in forcing Kyiv to swallow Putin’s terms. The Kremlin demands that Ukraine cede the remainder of its eastern Donbas region, abandon its aspirations of joining NATO, accept limits on its military’s size and capabilities, and enshrine legal protections for Russian cultural influence. In short, Putin seeks to achieve through diplomacy what Russia has failed to secure decisively through force.

That approach only works if Moscow believes time is on its side. At present, the Kremlin appears to calculate that Western political divisions will deepen and that Russia can eventually exhaust Ukraine’s resistance. Until Putin’s calculus changes, diplomacy without leverage will not moderate Russian objectives. It will entrench them.

Shifting that calculation requires raising the cost of continued aggression and making Putin understand that neither Western will nor Ukrainian resistance will break. The United States retains significant tools to do so. Rather than slashing military assistance for Kyiv as the Trump administration has done, additional support can help Ukraine increase the price Russia pays for its battlefield advances. Strictly enforcing and building upon existing sanctions, particularly on the energy revenues that finance the war, can tighten economic pressure on the Kremlin.

Pressure, steadily applied, can shape negotiating behavior. Concessions offered prematurely are counterproductive. By leaning on Kyiv to bend to Moscow’s demands, Washington risks reinforcing Kremlin intransigence. And by rushing into negotiations without first establishing leverage, the Trump administration wasted valuable time.

Ending the war is a worthy objective. But the terms matter. A settlement that emboldens Russian revanchism or merely grants Moscow time to rearm for a follow-on war would damage US interests — with implications extending well beyond Ukraine. It would undermine the credibility of US security guarantees, destabilize Europe’s security architecture, and shift American strategic bandwidth away from higher-priority theaters.

Four years into this war, the lesson is not that diplomacy is futile. It is that diplomacy must be facilitated with strength. The United States still possesses the tools to create that leverage. Using them is not escalation. It’s smart negotiating.

Keti Korkiya is a research analyst in the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

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US to Offer Passport Services in West Bank Settlement for First Time

The Israeli national flag flutters as apartments are seen in the background in the Israeli settlement of Efrat in the West Bank, Aug. 18, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

The US will provide on-site passport services this week in a settlement in the West Bank, marking the first time American consular officials have offered such services to Israeli settlers in the territory, US officials said on Tuesday.

Much of the international community considers Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal under international law.

Israel disputes this, citing historical and biblical ties to the area. It says the settlements provide strategic depth and security. Defenders of Israel also note that, while about one-fifth of the country’s population is Arab and enjoys equal rights, Palestinian law forbids selling any land to Israelis.

TENS OF THOUSANDS OF AMERICAN-ISRAELIS IN WEST BANK

US President Donald Trump, a staunch supporter of Israel, has said he opposes Israeli annexation of the West Bank. But his administration has not taken any measures to halt settlement activity, which has reportedly risen since he took office last year.

In a post on X, the US Embassy in Jerusalem said that as part of efforts to reach all Americans abroad, “consular officers will be providing routine passport services in Efrat on Friday, Feb. 27,” referring to a settlement south of the Palestinian city of Bethlehem.

The Embassy said it would plan similar on-site services in the Palestinian West Bank city of Ramallah, in the settlement of Beitar Illit near Bethlehem, and in cities within Israel such as Haifa.

The US offers passport and consular services at its Embassy in Jerusalem as well as at a Tel Aviv branch office. The number of dual American-Israeli nationals living in the West Bank is estimated to be in the tens of thousands.

Asked for comment, an embassy spokesperson said: “This is the first time we have provided consular services to a settlement in the West Bank.” The spokesperson said similar services were being offered to American-Palestinian dual nationals in the West Bank.

The move came after Israel’s cabinet last week approved measures to make it easier for settlers to buy land, a move Palestinians called a “de facto annexation.”

Much of the West Bank is under Israeli military control, with limited Palestinian self-rule in areas run by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority.

Efrat, the Jewish settlement where American consular officials will provide passport services on Friday, is home to many American immigrants. The US Embassy said it did not have data on the number of Americans living there.

More than 500,000 Israeli settlers live in the West Bank, home to 3 million Palestinians. Most settlements are small towns surrounded by fences and guarded by Israeli soldiers.

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CAIR Official Claims Israel Harvests, Collects Skin of Palestinians

Executive Director of the Ohio chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR-OH) Khalid Turaani, speaks at a press conference, July 9, 2025. Photo: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

A senior Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) official claimed Israel harvests and collects the skin of deceased Palestinians at a recent Ohio state Senate Judiciary Committee hearing.

“Israel has the largest human skin bank in the world,” Khalid Turaani, executive director of CAIR’s chapter in Ohio, said last week at a hearing on adopting the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s (IHRA) working definition of antisemitism.

“Where do you think they got all this skin from? They have more human skin than China and India. They are literally skinning the dead bodies of my brothers and sisters in Palestine,” Turaani continued. “And if I call them Nazis, your law [adopting the IHRA definition of antisemitism] is going to punish me.”

Scholars and activist groups have described the conspiracy theory of Israeli organ harvesting as a modern version of the antisemitic blood libel rooted in medieval conspiracies charging that Jews murdered Christian children and drank their blood during the holiday of Passover. The organ harvesting claim dates back to 2009, when a Swedish tabloid published an erroneous article saying that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) kills Palestinians to provide organs to Israeli hospitals.

“In the 1990s, one Israeli facility (the Abu Kabir Forensic Institute) [ran by Dr. Yehuda Hiss] took organs from IDF soldiers, Israeli civilians, Palestinians, foreign workers, and others whose corpses came into the institute, without seeking permission from the families of the deceased,” the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) noted in an article debunking the conspiracy.

“In a state inquiry report, Israeli authorities found ‘no evidence that Hiss targeted Palestinians; rather, he seemed to view every human body that ended up in his morgue, whether Israeli or Palestinian, as fair game for organ harvesting,” the ADL continued. “The families of dead Israeli soldiers were among those who complained about Hiss’s conduct.”

There is no evidence that such activity has happened since the 1990s.

Nonetheless, Palestinian media has repeatedly invoked the organ harvesting conspiracy, which has been picked up by anti-Israel activists in the West.

Last week’s hearing came about four months after Turaani took part in an online event in October alongside a senior member of Hamas who has been sanctioned by the US government and other individuals tied to the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist organizations.

Turaani moderated the event hosted by the Beirut-based Al-Zaytouna Center titled “Palestinians Abroad and Regional and International Strategic Transformations in the Light of Al-Aqsa Flood.” The term “Al-Aqsa Flood” is the name Hamas gave to its Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel, in which Palestinian terrorists murdered 1,200 people and dragged 251 hostages back to Gaza.

Among the speakers was Majed al-Zeer, who was sanctioned by the US Treasury Department in October 2024 for his role as a senior Hamas operative in Europe.

Also featured was Ziad el-Aloul, a Hamas-linked activist involved with the European Palestinians Conference and the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad, both groups accused by Israeli authorities of operating as Hamas fronts in Europe.

CAIR has drawn scrutiny in the past over its alleged ties to foreign terrorist groups. In the 2000s, CAIR was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing casePolitico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with Hamas.

According to the ADL, “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.”

CAIR has strongly disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”

In November 2023, CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said “yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in,” referring to Hamas’s Oct. 7 atrocities.

“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” he said.

About a week later, the executive director of CAIR’s Los Angeles office, Hussam Ayloush, said that Israel “does not have the right” to defend itself from Palestinian violence. He added in his sermon at the Islamic Society of Greater Oklahoma City that for the Palestinians, “every single day” since the Jewish state’s establishment has been comparable to Hamas’s Oct. 7 onslaught.

CAIR has been a fierce critic of IHRA’s definition of antisemitism, arguing it aims to silence legitimate criticism of Israel.

IHRA — an intergovernmental organization comprising dozens of countries including the US and Israel — adopted the “working definition” of antisemitism in 2016. Since then, the definition has been widely accepted by Jewish groups and lawmakers across the political spectrum, and it is now used by hundreds of governing institutions, including the US State Department, European Union, and United Nations.

According to the definition, antisemitism “is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.” It provides 11 specific, contemporary examples of antisemitism in public life, the media, schools, the workplace, and in the religious sphere. Beyond classic antisemitic behavior associated with the likes of the medieval period and Nazi Germany, the examples include denial of the Holocaust and newer forms of antisemitism targeting Israel such as demonizing the Jewish state, denying its right to exist, and holding it to standards not expected of any other democratic state.

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US Lets Some Embassy Staff Leave Israel, Citing Safety Risks Amid Iran Tensions

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee looks on during an interview with Reuters in Jerusalem, Sept. 10, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun

The US will permit non-emergency government personnel and family members to leave Israel over safety risks, the US Embassy in Jerusalem said on Friday, amid growing concerns about the risk of a military conflict with Iran.

The embassy did not elaborate on the safety risks leading to the “authorized departure,” which allows affected personnel to decide whether to leave. It falls short of the ordered departure instituted this week for some personnel at the US Embassy in Beirut.

The New York Times reported that Mike Huckabee, the US Ambassador to Israel, told staff in an email that those wishing to leave “should do so TODAY.”

“There is no need to panic,” Huckabee was quoted by the newspaper as writing, “but for those desiring to leave, it’s important to make plans to depart sooner rather than later.”

The embassy declined to comment on the newspaper’s report.

The US has built up its military in the Middle East as it negotiates with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program. The latest round of talks ended on Thursday with no sign of a breakthrough that could avert potential US strikes.

The two sides plan to resume negotiations soon after consultations in their countries’ capitals, with technical-level discussions scheduled to take place next week in Vienna, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X after the day’s meetings in Switzerland. Oman has served as mediator in the negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Iran has threatened to strike American bases in the region if it is attacked, and an escalation could also draw in Israel, which conducted a 12-day bombing campaign in June against Iran that Washington eventually joined.

Several countries have begun withdrawing dependents of diplomatic personnel and non-essential staff from some locations in the Middle East or advising citizens to avoid travel to Iran.

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