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Growing Danger: Why Iran’s Nuclear Defiance Demands a New Strategy

Navy forces of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution commandos and missile boats in Great Prophet IX Maneuver in the general area of Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf. Photo: Sayyed Shahab Odin Vajedi/Wikimedia Commons.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed this past week that Iran has not allowed its inspectors access to the nuclear sites bombed by Israeli and American forces in June. This sustained, deliberate obstruction has persisted for five months, rendering the verification of its nuclear material inventories long overdue.

Iran’s action is no mere technical violation; it is the creation of strategic ambiguity. Iran is actively denying the international community the ability to pinpoint the location and status of the 440.9 kilograms of uranium it had enriched to 60 percent purity, a quantity the IAEA itself assesses as potentially sufficient for 10 nuclear bombs if further refined.

The gravest threat is not just the volume of material, but the intentional collapse of verification. By keeping the IAEA blind, Iran ensures that any future military action will carry exponentially higher risks of striking a facility closer to weaponization than previously verifiable. Tehran is deliberately hedging its bets, creating a permanent deterrent shield of uncertainty.

The Synchronized Strike: Nuclear Threat Meets Naval Aggression

This nuclear defiance is not occurring in isolation. It is strategically synchronized with Iran’s kinetic threats in vital waterways.

The seizure of a Marshall Islands–flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz last week by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is a clear act of economic and military blackmail. This move directly targets a vessel operated by British and German interests, sending a hostile message to the E3 nations — France, Britain, and Germany — that any diplomatic pressure, like the new anti-Iran resolution they are planning at the IAEA, will be met with immediate, tangible military retaliation in the Persian Gulf.

Iran is attempting to dictate the diplomatic price of its own proliferation. It is leveraging its strategic nuclear advantage and its tactical naval aggression simultaneously. When the E3 countries threaten diplomatic action, Tehran responds not with words but with seized ships. This is an integrated campaign designed to impose asymmetric costs on the West, forcing economic decisions to override security principles.

The Allied Betrayal and the Failure of Pressure

The deepest source of vulnerability lies in the exposure of systemic differences within the allied camp itself. The US Treasury sanctions announced last week exposed a critical failure: entities operating within key allied countries — specifically Turkey  — are actively running procurement networks that supply Iran’s ballistic missile and UAV programs.

This exposure is a profound betrayal of the maximum pressure campaign. It proves that, despite diplomatic assurances, allied nations are prioritizing transactional gains over the existential security of the international community. Iran’s ability to exploit the financial systems of NATO members and crucial Gulf partners confirms that the campaign against Tehran is critically compromised by internal sabotage and greed.

This internal compromise is what gives Iran the confidence to engage in its dual-domain aggression. When Turkey insists on maintaining its Russian S-400 system, defying US security mandates, and simultaneously enables Iran’s missile growth, it is acting as a strategic liability, not a partner.

The Mandate for Decisive Action

Israel, with the full backing of the United States, cannot afford to wait for the consensus-driven paralysis of the United Nations. The current diplomatic landscape offers little comfort: Russia and China are actively undermining the US-led stabilization plan for Gaza, and Saudi Arabia is holding normalization hostage to impossible political demands. The enemy is exploiting the West’s focus on internal squabbles.

Iran is at the 10-bomb threshold and actively preventing the verification required to pull it back; Iran is using military seizures to retaliate against diplomatic pressure; and allied nations are enabling Iran’s most destructive weapons programs.

Diplomatic pressure should be immediately paired with credible joint military deterrence in the Strait of Hormuz to secure the free flow of commerce. Furthermore, Washington must enforce strict accountability on its allies, making it clear that funding Iran’s missile program is an act of geopolitical sabotage that will incur severe and immediate penalties.

The window for a diplomatic solution is closing rapidly. If the current trend of non-compliance and synchronized defiance continues, the world will soon have to face the fact that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability has crossed the point of no return.

Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx
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Russian Teen Assaulted Over Israeli Flag Photo as Antisemitism Concerns Mount, Amid Calls for Jews to Leave Country

Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, former chief rabbi of Moscow and current president of the Conference of European Rabbis, on June 24, 2024. Photo: IMAGO/epd via Reuters Connect

A 15-year-old student at a school in Russia was brutally assaulted by classmates after posting a photo featuring an Israeli flag on social media, Russian media reported, leaving him with a serious eye fracture from an incident that has drawn public outrage and is now under criminal investigation.

Earlier this month, a high school student in St. Petersburg, a major city in northwestern Russia, was physically attacked by two classmates after changing his social media profile photo to one featuring an Israeli flag, according to a report by local News Channel 78 on Sunday.

One of the attackers allegedly harassed the boy over his profile picture, demanding that he remove it and apologize.

After a verbal confrontation in which the attacker threatened the boy and hurled insults, including references to the Holocaust, he allegedly demanded that the victim meet him in the bathroom to continue the discussion.

When the two boys met there, the assailant reportedly demanded that he apologize on his knees. The victim refused but said he was willing to apologize without being humiliated.

The attacker then struck him repeatedly in the face while another boy blocked the bathroom exit.

The victim had to be hospitalized after suffering a fracture to the eye socket and underwent surgery under general anesthesia to remove bone fragments.

After spending more than a week in the hospital, he is now receiving outpatient care, and his family is coordinating with school administrators on a transition to home-based schooling as recommended by his doctors.

The boy’s mother reported the assault to the police, prompting local authorities to open a criminal investigation for assault and battery.

This incident came after Pinchas Goldschmidt, who served as Moscow’s chief rabbi from 1993 to 2022, recently urged Jews to leave Russia and consider immigrating to Israel, citing a growing hostile climate and rising antisemitic attacks targeting the local Jewish community.

“I have long urged Russia’s Jews to consider aliyah, the return to Israel. The post-Soviet renaissance was extraordinary, but illusions of permanence ignore history,” Goldschmidt, president of the Conference of European Rabbis, wrote in an op-ed for The Jerusalem Post earlier this month.

“Now, more than ever, Russia’s Jews should heed the call to leave. Israel offers not just refuge but a homeland where Jewish life is sovereign, not contingent on geopolitical whims,” he continued.

Although the number of Jews leaving Russia has declined, the country still accounted for the largest number of immigrants to Israel in 2025, with roughly 8,300 arrivals, according to data released Monday by Israel’s Immigration and Absorption Ministry. 

This figure marked a nearly 60 percent drop from 19,500 last year and a small fraction of the 74,000 who immigrated in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Israel suspends operations of multiple humanitarian organizations in Gaza, including Doctors Without Borders

The Israeli Ministry of Diaspora Affairs is halting the operations of more than three dozen humanitarian groups in Gaza, including Doctors Without Borders.

The ministry announced on Tuesday that the affected organizations failed to meet its new requirements for non-governmental organizations providing humanitarian aid in Gaza, which were posted online in November. The requirements included providing a full list of its Palestinian employees.

“We emphasize that the registration process is intended to prevent the exploitation of aid by Hamas, which in the past operated under the cover of certain international aid organizations, knowingly or unknowingly,” wrote the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), which oversees aid in Gaza, in a post on X.

The ministry said that 37 of the NGOs working in Gaza did not have their permits renewed for the coming year, according to the Associated Press.

Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, posted a link to a Ynet article about the suspensions on X Tuesday, writing, “An ongoing scandal ignored by UN & European enablers shows why ⁦@Israel⁩ has to decertify some of the NGOs who have terrorists on their payroll.”

The suspensions, which will begin on Jan. 1, come as President Donald Trump has put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to usher the U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel into its second phase, which would include the reconstruction of Gaza.

Speaking beside Netanyahu at a press conference Monday, Trump said that he believed reconstruction efforts in the enclave were “going to begin pretty soon,” adding that work to improve sanitary conditions had already begun.

But aid groups in Gaza have said that Israel has continued to block aid from entering the enclave as storms and flooding have battered the region’s residents in recent weeks.

Earlier this month, Doctors Without Borders warned in a blog post that Israel’s new registration guidelines “risk leaving hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza without lifesaving healthcare in 2026.” The United Nations’ Humanitarian Country Team also lambasted the requirements, writing that aid groups had warned they were “vague, politicised and impossible to meet without breaching humanitarian principles.”

But COGAT minimized the impact of the suspensions in its post, writing that “the implementation of the government decision will not result in any future harm to the volume of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip.” It said that the combined contributions of the groups affected amounted to 1% of the total aid volume in Gaza.

In June 2024, Israel accused Doctors Without Borders, which is also known by its French acronym MSF, of employing a Hamas operative. In response, MSF said it was “deeply concerned by these allegations and is taking them very seriously.”

“MSF chose not to cooperate with the registration process and refused to provide Israel’s Ministry of Diaspora Affairs with a list of its employees, as required by a government decision,” the post continued.

This article originally appeared on JTA.org.

The post Israel suspends operations of multiple humanitarian organizations in Gaza, including Doctors Without Borders appeared first on The Forward.

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US Defends Israel’s Right to Recognize Somaliland, Likens Move to Palestinian State Recognition

A demonstrator holds an image depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Somalis attend a demonstration after Israel became the first country to formally recognize the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, a decision that could reshape regional dynamics and test Somalia’s longstanding opposition to secession, in Hodan district of Mogadishu, Somalia, Dec. 28, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Feisal Omar

The United States has defended Israel’s decision to recognize the self-declared Republic of Somaliland amid international backlash, comparing the move to the recognition of a Palestinian state by numerous countries.

“Israel has the same right to conduct diplomatic relations as any other sovereign state,” Tammy Bruce, deputy US ambassador to the United Nations, said during an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Monday.

Bruce’s comments came in response to widespread criticism of Israel’s formal recognition of the breakaway territory of Somaliland. Several Arab, Islamic, and African countries, organizations, and entities publicly rejected the move, as did other nations such as China. The European Union also opposed the decision, saying it “reaffirms the importance of respecting the unity, the sovereignty, and the territorial integrity” of Somalia.

US President Donald Trump has said he opposes recognition of Somaliland, and Bruce added on Monday that Washington had no announcement or change in American policy regarding the self-declared country. However, Bruce chided other nations for recently welcoming recognition of a “nonexistent Palestinian state” against Israel’s wishes while condemning Israel for its latest diplomatic move, calling out what she described as a “double standard” against the Jewish state.

“Earlier this year, several countries, including members of this council, made the unilateral decision to recognize a nonexistent Palestinian state. And yet, no emergency meeting was called to express this council’s outrage,” she noted.

Many Western countries — including France, the UK, Australia, and Canada — recognized a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly in September, a move Israeli and US officials criticized as “rewarding terrorism.” Hamas praised the decision, even describing recognition as “the fruits of Oct. 7,” citing the Palestinian terrorist group’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, as the reason for increasing Western support.

“This council’s persistent double standards and misdirection of focus distract from its mission of maintaining international peace and security,” Bruce said.

However, Slovenian Ambassador Samuel Zbogar, whose country has recognized Palestinian statehood, rejected Washington’s comparison.

“Palestine is not part of any state. It is illegally occupied territory, as declared by the International Court of Justice, among others,” Zbogar said, describing Somaliland as “part of a UN member state” and arguing that “recognizing it goes against” the UN Charter.

Israel on Friday became the first country to officially recognize the Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state.

Somaliland is an unrecognized state in the Horn of Africa, situated on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west, and Somalia to the east.

“The State of Israel plans to immediately expand its relations with the Republic of Somaliland through extensive cooperation in the fields of agriculture, health, technology, and economy,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wrote in a post on X.

Although no other country has formally recognized Somaliland, several — including the United Kingdom, Ethiopia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Kenya, and Taiwan — have maintained liaison offices, allowing them to engage diplomatically and conduct trade and consular activities without full formal recognition.

“It is not a hostile step toward Somalia, nor does it preclude future dialogue between the parties. Recognition is not an act of defiance. It is an opportunity,” Israel’s Deputy UN Ambassador Jonathan Miller told the UN Security Council on Monday.

According to experts, the growing Israel-Somaliland partnership could be a “game changer” for Israel, boosting the Jewish state’s ability to counter the Yemen-based Houthi terrorist group while offering strategic and geographic advantages amid shifting regional power dynamics.

Unlike most other states in the region, Somaliland has relative security, regular elections, and a degree of political stability — qualities that make it a valuable partner for international allies and a key player in regional cooperation.

Last month, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a prominent Israeli think tank, released a new report arguing that Somaliland’s strategic position along the Red Sea, its closeness to Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, and its willingness to work with pro-Western states make it a key ally for Israel, benefiting both sides amid rising regional volatility.

“Somaliland’s significance lies in its geostrategic location and in its willingness — as a stable, moderate, and reliable state in a volatile region — to work closely with Western countries,” the INSS report said.

“Somaliland’s territory could serve as a forward base for multiple missions: intelligence monitoring of the Houthis and their armament efforts; logistical support for Yemen’s legitimate government in its war against them; and a platform for direct operations against the Houthis,” it continued.

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