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‘JD or Marco?’: Iran War Raises 2028 Stakes as Trump Weighs Vance Vs. Rubio

U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters while Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio look on, as they attend a meeting with oil industry executives, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

As the war in Iran threatens to imperil President Donald Trump’s legacy, the political stakes also are rising for two of his top lieutenants: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The pair, widely viewed as potential successors to Trump, have been thrust into still-developing negotiations to end the war at a moment when the Republican Party is already weighing its post-Trump future.

Vance has taken a cautious approach, reflecting his skepticism toward prolonged US military involvement, while Rubio has aligned himself closely with Trump’s hawkish stance and emerged as one of the administration’s most vocal defenders of the campaign.

Trump has said both men were involved in efforts to force Iran to accept US demands to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and allow oil traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the next presidential election due in 2028 and term limits barring Trump from running again, the president has been putting the succession question to allies and advisers in private, asking “JD or Marco?,” two people familiar with his views said.

The outcome of the US military operation now in its fifth week could shape the two men’s 2028 prospects, political analysts and Republican officials said. A swift end to the war that favors the US might bolster Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during a crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance space to argue he reflected the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.

Trump’s own standing is also at stake. His approval rating fell in recent days to 36 percent, its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by a surge in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the ‌Iran war, ⁠a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed last week found.

Some Republicans say they are watching closely for which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict unfolds. Some see signs of Trump leaning toward Rubio but note he could change his mind quickly.

“Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance,” a Republican with close ties to the White House said.

The White House rejected the idea that Trump is signaling a preference.

“No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration’s mission of fighting for the American people,” spokesman Steven Cheung said.

FROM TRUMP RIVALS TO LIKELY HEIRS

Vance, 41, a former Marine who served in Iraq, has long argued against US entanglements in foreign wars. His public comments on Iran have been limited and calibrated, and Trump has noted the two have “philosophical differences” on the conflict.

Once a self-described “never-Trumper,” Vance wrote an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal in 2023 saying Trump’s best foreign ​policy was not starting any wars during his first four ​years in ⁠office between 2017 and 2021.

The White House has downplayed any rift between the president and vice president. Standing alongside Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month, Vance said he supported Trump’s handling of the war and agreed with him that Iran should not obtain a nuclear weapon.

Vance could take on a more direct role in negotiations if Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

“Vice President Vance is proud to be a part of a highly effective team that, under President Trump’s bold leadership, has had incredible success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous,” a Vance spokeswoman said.

A senior White House official, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive topic, said Trump tolerates ideological differences as long as aides remain loyal, adding that Vance’s skeptical views have helped inform Trump about where part of his voter base stands.

A person familiar with Vance’s views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the November midterm elections before deciding on whether to run in 2028.

Vance won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference’s annual gathering, with about 53 percent of the more than 1,600 attendees who voted favoring him as the next Republican nominee. The results released on Saturday also showed Rubio gaining ground, finishing second at 35 percent, up from just 3 percent last year.

Rubio, 54, has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar with Rubio’s views say he would be content as Vance’s running mate.

But any perceived vulnerability for Vance could encourage Rubio and other Republicans eyeing bids.

“Trump has a long memory,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And he may call out Vance for his lack of allegiance. And if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him by not getting the endorsement of the president.”

Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they would be hard to beat.

“Trump doesn’t want to anoint anyone,” the senior White House official said.

A March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 79 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Vance, while 19 percent viewed him negatively. Some 71 percent had a positive view of Rubio, while 15 percent viewed him unfavorably.

In comparison, 79 percent of Republicans viewed Trump favorably and 20% unfavorably.

Rubio, whose 2016 presidential aspirations were snuffed out after a bitter confrontation with Trump, has long since set aside any frictions with the president.

State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said Rubio “has a great relationship, both professionally and personally” with Trump’s team.

Rubio and the White House were forced into damage control after he angered some of Trump’s conservative backers when he suggested that Israel pushed the United States into the war. But in the weeks since, Trump has praised Rubio’s efforts.

Asked whether Rubio was concerned that a protracted war might damage his political future, a senior State Department official said, “He has not spent a second thinking about this.”

DIFFERENCES ON DISPLAY

Matt Schlapp, a conservative leader who runs CPAC, said the Iran campaign will have big political consequences.

“If it is seen as successful at getting the job done… I think people will be politically rewarded for doing the right thing,” Schlapp said. “If it goes on and on and on… I think the politics are tough.”

Republicans remain broadly supportive of the US military strikes against Iran, with 75 percent approving compared to just 6 percent of Democrats and 24 percent of independents, Reuters/Ipsos polling showed.

At a televised Cabinet meeting on Thursday, the contrast between Rubio and Vance was on display.

Rubio gave a full-throated defense of Trump’s attack on Iran. “He’s not going to leave a danger like this in place,” the secretary of state said.

Vance was more measured, focusing on options for depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon. He closed by wishing Christians and US troops in the Gulf a blessed Holy Week and Easter.

“We continue to stand behind you,” he said to servicemembers, “and continue to support you every step of the way.”

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Milei Reaffirms Unwavering Support for Israel Ahead of Independence Day Visit

Argentine President Javier Milei speaks at the 12th annual Algemeiner J100 Gala on March 9, 2026, in New York City.

Argentine President Javier Milei has once again voiced his unwavering support for Israel ahead of a diplomatic visit beginning this weekend, during which he will take part in Independence Day celebrations and light a ceremonial torch.

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 14 on Thursday, Milei offered unequivocal support for Israel amid its ongoing war with Iran, describing the Islamist regime in Tehran as “an enemy to the West.”

“I defend Israel and the Jewish people because it is a just cause,” the Argentine leader said. “Israel stands as the fortress of the West. Turning your back on it would mean turning your back on a legacy that has produced one of the greatest civilizational achievements in history.”

“Rejecting Israel’s legacy to humanity means destroying everything that has made Western civilization great,” he continued.

Milei also praised both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, calling them “exceptional leaders,” amid what he described as a fight for democracy, freedom, and the very foundations of modern civilization.

“Beyond the threat of developing nuclear capabilities, Iran exports and finances terrorism around the world. It is not only an enemy of Israel, but of the entire West,” the Argentine leader said. “If we fail to understand the danger posed by this theocratic regime, we are jeopardizing our very existence.”

He also criticized the international community for what he portrayed as a lack of support for Washington and Jerusalem during the conflict, warning that such hesitation reflects a broader failure to confront rising global threats.

“They are cowards who are afraid to confront them. If you want peace, you must be prepared for war,” he said. “If we fail to understand that and refuse to face those who seek to destroy our existence, we will ultimately become victims anyway.”

In his third diplomatic visit to the Jewish state, Milei will arrive on Sunday to take part in Israel’s Independence Day celebrations, scheduled to run from April 19 to 22.

He will become the first foreign head of state to light a torch as part of the official Independence Day ceremony.

During his trip, Milei will also receive a series of honors, including the Presidential Medal of Honor from Israeli President Isaac Herzog and an honorary doctorate, in recognition of what Israeli officials describe as his exceptional contribution to Israel and humanity.

“Milei has demonstrated unwavering support for Israel on the international stage, stood alongside the families of Gaza hostages, and expressed a deep connection to the Jewish people and its heritage,” the Israeli president said in a statement announcing the decision, calling Argentina a “key ally.”

The Argentine leader “represents bold leadership and has pursued a clear, unequivocal policy of standing with the State of Israel as an ardent Zionist,” he continued.

During his visit, Milei will also meet with Netanyahu, and some reports suggest discussions could advance his earlier pledge to move Argentina’s embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

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Israeli Defense Chief Says Hezbollah Will Be Disarmed, Terror Group Vows Continued ‘Resistance’ as Truce Begins

Smoke rises following an airstrike in Lebanon, as seen from Israeli side of the border, April 11, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

As a newly agreed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect, Israel’s defense minister warned on Friday that Hezbollah will ultimately be disarmed and Israeli forces will not withdraw from Lebanese territory, vowing the campaign will continue until the threat to Israel’s northern communities is fully eliminated.

During a press conference, Israel Katz said the military campaign had entered a temporary “freeze” phase under a 10-day ceasefire framework. However, he stressed that Israel’s operational objectives on the ground remain unfinished and the maneuver is far from complete.

“The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will continue to hold all positions it has cleared and taken inside Lebanon,” the Israeli defense chief said. “The ground operation and nationwide strikes against Hezbollah have achieved significant gains, but the mission is not yet complete.”

“Disarming Hezbollah — whether through military force or political pressure — was and remains the central objective of the campaign to which we are committed,” he continued. “Significant political leverage has now also been created, with the direct involvement of US President [Donald Trump] and increased pressure on the Lebanese government to advance that goal.”

Katz’s remarks came shortly after the Iran-back Lebanese terrorist group issued a defiant statement rejecting the ceasefire and any prospect of direct negotiations with Jerusalem, while vowing its forces would continue resisting Israeli troops.

“Our fighters will keep their hands on the trigger, preparing for the enemy’s betrayal and violation of its commitments. We will remain loyal to the alliance until our last breath, and our flag will not fall,” the statement read.

“The presence of Israeli forces on Lebanese territory gives Lebanon and the Lebanese people the right to resist,” it continued.

Meanwhile, residents across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and other parts of the country began making their way back home as the ceasefire took effect, with social media footage showing reconstruction work already underway on infrastructure damaged during the war.

However, Israel has warned Lebanese citizens against returning to their homes at this stage, with officials saying that Hezbollah could try to exploit the situation to reestablish its terrorist infrastructure under civilian cover.

“With the ceasefire agreement taking effect, the IDF will continue to hold its positions in southern Lebanon in light of Hezbollah’s terrorist activity,” Col. Avichai Edraei, the IDF spokesperson in Arabic, said in a statement. 

“Until further notice, you are asked not to move south of the Litani River,” he continued. “If the fire resumes, those who return to the security zone will be forced to evacuate in order to allow the mission to be completed.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also signaled that Israel does not intend to withdraw its forces from Lebanese territory, saying the military is establishing what he described as a “thickened security zone” along the border area.

“That’s where we are – and we’re not leaving,” the Israeli leader said in a video statement issued on Thursday.

Netanyahu also said the opportunity for a ceasefire emerged only after what he described as a dramatic shift in Lebanon’s strategic balance of power since the start of the war.

He pointed to major blows to Hezbollah’s military capabilities, including the killing of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024 and the subsequent destruction of large weapons stockpiles, saying these developments led to calls from Lebanese officials for direct peace talks for the first time in decades.

With negotiations now underway toward a longer-term arrangement, Netanyahu said Israel’s position rests on two core demands: the full disarmament of Hezbollah and a “sustainable” security-based peace framework.

For its part, Hezbollah insisted any agreement must include a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and adherence to a reciprocal “quiet for quiet”” arrangement — terms Israel has rejected.

Netanyahu also warned that Hezbollah, which openly seeks Israel’s destruction, still retains a significant rocket arsenal, saying neutralizing that threat will remain a central component of the ongoing security and political process.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, nearly half of the roughly 8,000 rockets fired by Hezbollah during the war were launched from the southern Litani River region — an area that, under previous agreements, was supposed to be fully demilitarized.

The newly agreed ceasefire, which took effect Thursday-Friday at midnight, establishes a fixed 10-day window intended “to allow for good-faith negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement.”

As part of direct mediation efforts from Washington, Trump invited Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to White House talks aimed at advancing a broader settlement framework.

According to the US Department of State, the Lebanese government pledged to take “significant steps” to prevent Hezbollah from launching further attacks against Israeli targets.

“Both countries recognize the challenge posed by armed groups that violate Lebanon’s sovereignty and threaten regional stability … The only forces authorized to bear arms in Lebanon will be Lebanese government forces,” an official statement from the meeting said. 

“Israel will retain its right to take all necessary measures for self-defense, at any time, against planned, immediate or sustained attacks,” it continued.

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Despite Winning New Jersey Special Election, Anti-Israel Candidate Underperforms in Heavily Jewish Town

Analilia Mejia, Democratic candidate for New Jersey's 11th Congressional District, speaks to guests after winning the election in Montclair, New Jersey, US, April 16, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

Analilia Mejia, Democratic candidate for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, speaks to guests after winning the election in Montclair, New Jersey, US, April 16, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz

In Thursday night’s US congressional election in the 11th district of New Jersey, Jewish voters seemed to defect from the Democratic nominee in massive numbers, potentially foreshadowing a significant shift in Jewish voting patterns.

Analilia Mejia, a progressive activist known for her sharp condemnations of Israel, comfortably won the special congressional election in New Jersey in the deep-blue district by a margin of 60 percent to 40 percent.

Despite defeating her Republican opponent by 20 points, however, pundits pointed out that Mejia underperformed expectations and that Democrats hemorrhaged support among heavily Jewish communities. 

In Livingston, New Jersey, a town with a significant Jewish population, Mejia barely eked out a 51-49 majority over Joe Hathaway, a staggering sea-change from recent elections. The deep-blue town voted for Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by margins of 0.5 and 12 points, respectively. Taking into account party registration, the town has seen a shift to the political right by over 50 percent since 2024.

Though Mejia won Thursday’s race by a comfortable margin, experts pointed out that the progressive insurgent underperformed throughout the affluent suburban district. When taking into account party registration patterns, Mejia underperformed in Millburn by 23 points, North Caldwell by 10 points, South Orange by 7 points, and West Caldwell by 6 points, among others.

Spectators suggested that Mejia’s impressive margin of victory could be attributed to anti-Trump sentiment and massive turnout among Democrats and depressed turnout from Republicans.

Mejia’s positions on Israel, once considered fringe within the party, are increasingly becoming more mainstream, particularly in elections dominated by liberal voters. Her rhetoric on Israel, which critics say is one-sided and inflammatory, has drawn backlash from moderates and pro-Israel Democrats.

The outcome raises fresh questions about the party’s direction heading into national elections. While progressives see momentum, others worry candidates like Mejia could alienate Jewish and moderate voters while complicating efforts to maintain a broad electoral coalition. Her victory is likely to deepen internal party tensions, especially as debates over Israel grow more polarized and politically charged.

Mejia has said Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to “genocide,” a position that put her well to the left of many mainstream Democrats. She has aligned herself with calls for stronger conditions, or outright opposition, to US military support for Israel, reflecting the broader progressive wing’s push to reassess the traditional US-Israel relationship. She has also aimed sharp criticism toward the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the preeminent pro-Israel lobbying group in the US, calling the organization “horrendous” and accusing it of dividing the Democratic Party. 

A progressive organizer with a record of criticizing Israeli government actions, Mejia benefited from a coalition of younger voters, activists, and highly engaged ideological blocs. Her win is consistent with recent polling trends showing a generational divide within the party, with younger Democrats expressing more skepticism toward Israel than older cohorts.

Mejia’s struggles in heavily Jewish and moderate areas of the district could forecast a split between the Democratic Party and what has been historically one of its most reliable voting blocs.

Since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel launched the Gaza war, the Democratic Paty’s rhetoric toward Israel has become increasingly hostile. Progressive Democrats, such as Reps. Ilhan Omar (MN) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), have accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza.

This past week, approximately 80 percent of Democratic senators voted to halt military aid transfers to Israel, citing poor humanitarian conditions in Gaza and dismay over the US-Israeli war with Iran.

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