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Oil Prices Likely to Move Higher on Venezuelan Turmoil, Ample Supply to Cap Gains

FILE PHOTO: The Guinea-flagged oil tanker MT Bandra, which is under sanctions, is partially seen alongside another vessel at El Palito terminal, near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela December 29, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Juan Carlos Hernandez/File Photo

Oil prices are likely to move higher when benchmark futures resume trading later on Sunday on concern that supply may be disrupted after the United States snatched Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas at the weekend and President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation.

There is plentiful oil supply in global markets, meaning any further disruption to Venezuela’s exports would have little immediate impact on prices, analysts said.

The US strike on Venezuela to extract the country’s president inflicted no damage on the country’s oil production and refining industry, two sources with knowledge of operations at state oil company PDVSA said at the weekend.

Since Trump imposed a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuelan waters and seized two cargoes last month, exports have fallen and have been completely paralysed since January 1.

That has left millions of barrels stuck on loaded tankers in Venezuelan waters and led to millions more barrels going into Venezuelan oil storage.

The OPEC member’s exports fell to around 500,000 barrels per day in December, around half of what they were in November. Most of the December exports took place before the embargo. Since then, only exports from Chevron of around 100,000 bpd have continued to leave Venezuela. The global oil major has US authorization to produce and export from Venezuela despite sanctions.

The embargo prompted PDVSA to begin cutting oil output, three sources close to the decision said on Sunday, because Venezuela is running out of storage capacity for the oil that it cannot export. PDVSA has asked some of the joint ventures that are operating in the country to cut back production, the sources said. They would need to shut down oilfields or well clusters.

Trump said on Saturday that the oil embargo on Venezuelan exports remained in full effect. If the US government loosens the embargo and allows more Venezuelan crude exports to the US Gulf, there are refiners there that previously processed the country’s oil.

The weekend’s events were unlikely to materially alter global oil markets or the global economy given the US strikes avoided Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.

“In any case, any short-term disruption to Venezuelan output can easily be offset by increased production elsewhere. And any medium-term recovery in Venezuelan supply would be dwarfed by shifts among the major producers,” he said in a note.

Trump also threatened on Friday to intervene in a crackdown on protests in Iran, another OPEC producer, ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. Trump on Friday said “we are locked and loaded and ready to go,” without specifying what actions he was considering against Tehran, which has seen a week of unrest as protests over soaring inflation spread across the country.

“Prices may see modest upside on heightened geopolitical tensions and disruption risks linked to Venezuela and Iran, but ample global supply should continue to cap those risks for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies agreed to maintain steady oil output in the first quarter, OPEC+ said in a statement. Both Venezuela and Iran are members of OPEC. Several other members of OPEC+ are also embroiled in conflict and political crises.

The producer group has put increases in production on pause for the first quarter after raising output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand.

Brent and US crude futures settled lower on Friday, the first day of trading of 2026, as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks. Both contracts closed 2025 with their biggest annual loss since 2020 marked by wars, higher tariffs, increased OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

VENEZUELA

“The political transition in Venezuela adds another major layer of uncertainty, with elevated risks of civil unrest and near-term supply disruptions,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official.

“In an environment this fragile, OPEC+ is choosing caution, preserving flexibility rather than introducing new uncertainty into an already volatile market.”

Trump said on Saturday that the US would control the country until it could make an orderly transition, but an interim government led by vice president and oil minister Delcy Rodriguez remains in control of the country’s institutions, including state energy company PDVSA, with the blessing of Venezuela’s top court.

A top Venezuelan official said on Sunday that the country’s government would stay unified behind Maduro amid deep uncertainty about what is next for the Latin American country.

Trump said that American oil companies were prepared to reenter Venezuela and invest billions of dollars to restore production there.

Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years even if US oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that Trump has promised, analysts said.

“We continue to caution market observers that it will be a long road back for the country, given its decades-long decline under the Chávez and Maduro regimes, as well as the fact that the US regime change track record is not one of unambiguous success,” Helima Croft, RBC Capital’s head of commodities research, said in a note.

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9 Israeli Soldiers Injured in Lebanon Fighting, 2 in Serious Condition

Two IDF soldiers. Photo: IDF.

i24 NewsTwo Israeli officers were seriously wounded and seven additional soldiers injured in two separate incidents in southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.

According to the military, the first incident occurred during the morning hours amid an encounter between Israeli forces and armed militants operating in the area.

During the engagement, an anti-tank missile was launched toward deployed troops, which the IDF said was fired by Hezbollah operatives. Two officers were struck in the attack, with one sustaining serious injuries and the second moderately wounded.

A second incident took place overnight in a separate sector of southern Lebanon, when Israeli forces operating in the area came under rocket fire. In that strike, one officer was seriously wounded and six soldiers were moderately injured, the IDF said.

The incidents come amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, marked by repeated exchanges of fire and periodic ground confrontations in southern Lebanon.

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Report: Some 30 US Troops Injured in Iranian Attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi

Screenshot of video of Saudi Arabia’s Air Force intercepts Iranian drones over Saudi airspace. Photo: Saudi Defense Ministry / Screenshot

i24 News –  Over 12 US troops have been injured in Iranian attacks on a Saudi air base in the past week, the Associated Press reported on Saturday citing two people who have been briefed on the matter.

On Friday, the Islamic Republic launched six ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan air base, wounding at least 15 troops, including five seriously, according to the sources who spoke to AP on the condition of anonymity.

US officials initially reported that at least 10 US troops were injured, including two seriously wounded.

The base had come under attack twice earlier this week, including an incident that injured 14 US troops, according to the people who had been briefed on the matter.

Located some 100 kilometers from the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the base is run by the Royal Saudi Air Force, but is also used by US troops.

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At CPAC, a Generational Divide Over Republican Support for Israel

Gabriel Khuly, 19, and Joshua-Caleb Barton, 31, pose for a picture outside Generation Zion’s booth at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, U.S., March 27, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Nathan Layne

When former Congressman Matt Gaetz opened his speech by aligning with a Republican faction “loyal to only one nation,” his message to the Conservative Political Action Conference was clear: It was a veiled swipe at perceived Israeli influence over US politicians, even without naming Israel outright.

A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran, Gaetz’s comments struck a discordant note at the annual CPAC event. They cut against calls for unity and exposed a growing Republican rift largely along generational lines, as younger conservatives increasingly question support for Israel.

That skepticism reflects a broader distrust of military intervention among younger Republicans, fueled in part by conservative figures such as Tucker Carlson, whose allegations of excessive Israeli influence on US policy have drawn accusations that he is stoking antisemitism. Carlson has repeatedly denied accusations of antisemitism.

The Iran war, including Israel’s role in it, emerged as one of the main flashpoints at CPAC, which for decades has served as a central gathering for Republican politicians and activists.

Jack Posobiec, a conservative commentator and online influencer, said age 45 is a dividing line, with the younger cohort more likely to question the party’s steadfast support of Israel.

“People want to paint it off as if it’s antisemitism, but I don’t think that’s what it is,” Posobiec told Reuters. “It’s just a question of: Why? What is the purpose of this relationship? And I hear that a lot from young voters.”

The issue has roiled the Democratic Party in recent weeks, with some lawmakers and primary candidates distancing themselves from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC amid growing unease over Israel’s military actions.

It is now exposing fault lines among Republicans as well, turning off young voters who helped propel Trump to victory in 2024 and potentially complicating the party’s efforts to defend slim majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives heading into November’s midterm elections.

Noah Bundy, 17, and Ryder Gerrald, 18, conservative friends from Georgia attending their first CPAC, said they opposed the war with Iran and questioned whether the military operation put Israel’s interests ahead of America’s.

“I think they totally pushed us into a war with Iran,” Bundy said. “My whole family is military and none of us is really for it.”

“Our younger generation, we don’t like Israel as much compared to the older generation,” said Gerrald. He said he would prefer redirecting US taxpayer dollars toward domestic priorities, rather than spending to bolster Israel’s military.

EVANGELICAL SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL

The party’s pro-Israel stance, however, resonates strongly with evangelicals – a pillar of Trump’s political base – and with older voters like Harry Strine III, an 83-year-old CPAC attendee who was wearing a red “Make America Great Again” hat.

“Israel is God’s people,” Strine said. “The US was founded on the Judeo-Christian belief. I guess I’m a traditionalist.”

On the conference’s opening day, Rev. Franklin Graham said that, by striking Iran to protect Israel, President Donald Trump was like the biblical figure of Esther, a Jewish queen who, according to scripture, was elevated by God to save her people from annihilation in ancient Persia.

“I believe God has raised him up for a time such as this, like Queen Esther,” said Graham, a prominent Christian evangelist, invoking a core evangelical belief that the modern state of Israel represents the fulfillment of biblical prophecy.

But unease over the Iran war and rising gasoline prices has pushed Trump’s approval rating down to 36% – its lowest since his return to the White House – a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found. Support among his core base remains strong, however, with 74% of Republicans backing the strikes on Iran.

The debate over Israel coincides with a broader Republican fight over the future of the MAGA movement and who belongs in it. Allegations of antisemitism flared at a December event organized by Turning Point USA, a nonprofit focused on promoting conservative politics. At its first national event since founder Charlie Kirk’s death, commentator Ben Shapiro criticized fellow conservatives for associating with figures like white nationalist streamer Nick Fuentes, who has praised Hitler.

In his CPAC speech on Thursday, Gaetz said he did not agree with Shapiro and other conservative commentators “that we have some sort of near slavish loyalty to a country in a faraway land,” an apparent reference to Israel.

He argued that conservatives needed to allow for disagreements and that “antisemitism isn’t hiding around every corner and in every bush.”

Visitors to the CPAC booth of Generation Zion, a nonprofit group that trains young Christians and Jews to advocate for Israel and to combat antisemitism, could pick up a sticker reading “Tucker Carlson Hates Me,” a rebuke of the commentator’s recent criticism of Christian Zionism and Israel’s alleged sway over U.S. politics.

Gabriel Khuly, a 19-year-old volunteer for the group, said that while the Republican Party has an antisemitism problem, it is driven by a small minority with an outsized voice online.

“The actual anti-Israel, antisemitic wing of the Republican Party, I think, makes itself seem a lot bigger than it really is.”

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