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‘The gun is on the table’: Both sides of Israel’s debate say that a constitutional crisis is coming
(JTA) — In a country that is deeply divided, where attending anti-government protests has become a weekly ritual for many, at least one idea still unites the right and left: Israel appears to be hurtling toward a constitutional crisis.
The crisis — which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu termed a “governmental breakdown” during a recent visit to Germany — would flow from legislation Netanyahu is pushing that would overhaul Israel’s judiciary. The proposal — which critics say threatens Israel’s democratic character — would increase the coalition’s control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges, and would enable Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, to override court decisions with a simple majority.
A constitutional crisis occurs when a country faces an unsolvable dispute between competing branches of government. Countries have recovered from constitutional crises in the past — the United States has had several over the centuries, including multiple ones related to the leadup to the Civil War and its aftermath — but the process can be difficult, and mistrust long-lasting.
In Israel’s case, what happens if the Knesset passes the judicial legislation, the Supreme Court strikes it down, and the Knesset doesn’t abide by that decision? Does the court or Knesset hold final authority?
However that question is answered, just getting to that point would represent a dramatic breakdown in a 75-year-old democracy. “The very idea that the government might not comply, might ignore the Supreme Court’s decision, would be an unprecedented crisis,” said Michal Saliternik, a law professor at Netanya Academic College.
In that dangerous moment, some Israelis see opportunity. In a perhaps ironic twist, Israel is on the precipice of a constitutional crisis but doesn’t actually have a constitution. It’s a risky bet, but a battle between the court and the coalition, said international law scholar Tamar Megiddo, might just force Israel into the long and arduous process of writing a governing document and figuring out how to balance the country’s competing authorities.
“The entire constitutional system here is held together by duct tape,” said Megiddo, who teaches at the College of Law and Business outside Tel Aviv. “It’s ridiculous. We have no protection of our constitutional regime, no protection of our separation of powers, no protection of checks and balances and no protection of human rights. The only reason this functioned for the past 75 years is because there was good faith.”
She added, “I think a lot of people view the current constitutional moment, or the realistically likely constitutional crisis, as also an opportunity for fixing everything that’s broken in the system.”
When asked how a clash between the government and courts could come to a head, those scholars and others all individually sketched out versions of the same scenario: The government passes a law giving itself control over judicial appointments, the court strikes down the law — and the government appoints new judges anyway. When those judges arrive for their first day of work, should the security guards let them in? Who should the guards obey — the government that appointed the judges, or the courts that declared their appointment illegal?
While that question is being debated, the courts may not be able to hear cases at all.
“At the end of the day, the state needs to function,” Saliternik said. “The courts have work to do. If the judges can’t enter their chambers, it will definitely impact everyone. It’ll be like a third world country in which institutions don’t function.”
The law on judicial appointments may be passed next week, and for rank-and-file Israelis, both Saliternik and Megiddo said, this question would hardly be theoretical. If Israel’s system of government descends into crisis, it could lead to a downgrade in the country’s credit rating and an economic downturn that ordinary citizens feel in their pockets. And given how invested Israelis have become in the face of the judicial reform — protesting in the streets by the hundreds of thousands — it’s unlikely they’ll ignore what ensues if and when it passes. Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who has a reputation for congeniality, gave a pained speech last week warning of the potential for civil war.
“If the court issues a ruling and the government does not comply, then the Israeli public will say, ‘This is the ultimate proof that this is not a democracy anymore,’” Saliternik said. “I say this with trepidation, but if there’s an open battle between the Supreme Court and the Knesset, it could result in street violence.”
Megiddo said that even the possibility of such a crisis has normalized tactics that were once on the fringe, such as refusal to perform military service, a duty seen as sacrosanct across much of Jewish Israeli society. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly warned that the possibility of mass refusal to serve could cause him to leave his post. On Tuesday, a group of military reservists said they plan to recruit tens of thousands more who will pledge to shirk reserve duty if the legislation goes through.
“People who refuse service were considered, in the Israeli public, to be a very extreme minority, and now it’s mainstream to say that people won’t serve the military for a dictatorship,” Megiddo said. “It’s unbelievable how mainstream saying that at the moment is, and that has long-term impact.”
Both supporters and opponents of the legislation in the Knesset are treating a constitutional crisis as a real possibility. The only thing they disagree about is who will be to blame — and both sides appear to be raising the stakes, vowing either to disobey government decisions, or disregard the court.
“The security situation is troubling,” said former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, an opponent of Netanyahu, in a speech last week referencing escalating violence between Israelis and Palestinians, and urging Netanyahu to pause the court legislation. “Don’t drag us into an irresponsible constitutional crisis during a security crisis.”
Netanyahu’s allies, unsurprisingly, say it is the opponents of the reform — and the justices of the court themselves — who would be responsible for a constitutional crisis, should the court strike down the law.
Striking down the reform legislation would be a “doomsday weapon,” wrote Dror Eydar, a columnist for the pro-Netanyahu tabloid Israel Hayom, in a piece titled “Inviting a constitutional crisis.” “This striking down would constitute a coup d’etat.”
(Another column four days later in the same publication, however, urged a compromise on the judicial reform in order to avert a constitutional crisis. That piece was written by Miriam Adelson, whose husband Sheldon — the late billionaire philanthropist — founded and funded the paper.)
Netanyahu’s coalition members are still worried enough about the prospect of a constitutional crisis that they’ve agreed to what they refer to as a “softening” of one piece of the legislation. Instead of giving the coalition total control over Supreme Court appointments, the new text of the bill would let the coalition control its first two judicial appointments.
“There’s no doubt that the change we made prevents any real claim that can create a constitutional crisis,” said Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who is spearheading the legislation, on an Israeli news show on Monday.
A view of the Israeli Supreme Court in Jerusalem. (Eddie Gerald via Getty Images)
But then he threw down the gauntlet: If the court still overturns the law, Levin said, “That would cross every red line. We definitely wouldn’t accept it.”
Responding to that claim, Yair Lapid, the leader of the parliamentary opposition, said that if the government disobeys the court, citizens should disobey the government.
“That’s it, the masks are off. The gun is on the table,” Lapid tweeted. “The real prime minister, Yariv Levin, is drawing us into total chaos and a constitutional crisis we won’t be able to come back from. If the justice minister is calling on the government not to obey the law, why should the citizens of Israel obey the government?”
Another Likud lawmaker, Economy Minister Nir Barkat, said he would respect the court’s ruling if it struck the law down. But in any case, the Likud bill doesn’t appear to be a promising avenue toward compromise. “This isn’t softening and compromise, this is Hungary and Poland on steroids,” Labor Party Chair Merav Michaeli said on a radio program on Monday, referring to countries where the government has increased its control over the court system. “From the start, I said we can’t negotiate with them.”
A predecessor of Michaeli’s in the Labor Party has also taken a hard line and — unlike the many voices who worry about a clash of government authorities — has suggested that he would prefer a constitutional crisis to compromise. Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister, said that a constitutional crisis would force senior Israeli military commanders to take sides — and expressed confidence that they would choose to obey the courts.
“It would be a severe constitutional crisis,” Barak said in a speech last month. “That’s when the test of the gatekeepers and defenders of sovereignty would arrive: The head of the Shin Bet, the police commissioner, the chief of staff and the head of the Mossad. I’m convinced that they understand that in a democracy, the only choice is to recognize the supremacy of law and the Supreme Court.”
The mounting threats by military reservists, and comments by former military commanders opposing the court reform, may indicate that the military will opt to follow the court. But Saliternik hopes that’s a choice Israeli forces won’t have to confront.
“This is something that has never happened in Israel,” she said. “It’s so very hard to think about. I very much hope that that government will get a hold of itself and act responsibly.”
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Syria Tightens Grip After Kurdish Pullback, Says Islamic State Prisoners Escape
Military members gather near Raqqa prison, where the Syrian army is besieging SDF members after the army took control of the city of Raqqa, Syria, Jan. 19, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano
Syrian government troops tightened their grip on Monday across a swathe of northern and eastern territory after it was abruptly abandoned by Kurdish forces in a dramatic shift that has consolidated President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rule.
A day after the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), once the main US ally in Syria, agreed to quit large areas under a ceasefire, the Syrian army said “a number of” Islamic State terrorists had escaped a prison that had been under SDF control in the eastern city of Shaddadi, accusing the SDF of releasing them.
The SDF said it had lost control of the prison following an attack by government fighters. The Syrian army denied attacking the jail and said its forces would work to secure the prison and re-arrest the escapees.
The SDF said Shaddadi prison had held thousands of militants. The army did not say how many IS detainees had fled.
The SDF withdrawals mark the biggest change in Syria‘s control map since Islamist fighters led by Sharaa toppled President Bashar al-Assad in 2024, tilting the power balance Sharaa’s way after months of deadlock in talks with the SDF over government demands its forces merge fully with Damascus.
After days of fighting with government forces, the SDF agreed on Sunday to withdraw from both Raqqa and Deir al-Zor – two Arab-majority provinces they had controlled for years and the location of Syria‘s main oil fields.
GOVERNMENT TROOPS DEPLOY AT OILFIELD, IN RAQQA
Turkey, which has repeatedly sent forces into northern Syria to curb Kurdish power since 2016, welcomed the deal signed by its ally Sharaa and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan urged the swift implementation of the agreement that requires the full integration of Kurdish fighters into Syria‘s armed forces.
The SDF, spearheaded by the Kurdish YPG militia, had established control of a quarter or more of Syria during the 2011-2024 civil war, whilst fighting with the support of US troops against Islamic State. The United States, which has since established close ties with Sharaa under President Donald Trump, has been closely involved in mediation between the sides.
The SDF media office said in a statement that the prison at Shaddadi – one of three under its control in the Hasakah region – had come under repeated attack by “Damascus factions,” and that dozens of SDF fighters were killed or wounded defending it.
The statement added that the US-led coalition against Islamic State had not intervened despite repeated appeals to a nearby coalition base. The US military’s Central Command did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
In its denial of the SDF account, the Syrian Ministry of Defense said army forces had bypassed Shaddadi, in line with deployment plans, and offered aid to SDF forces inside. The Syrian army announced it had established control over the city of Shaddadi and the prison.
The Syrian Defense Ministry also denied an SDF account of clashes between government and SDF forces near a jail in Raqqa, which the SDF said was holding IS inmates. It said the army had arrived “at the vicinity of al-Aqtan prison … and began securing it and its surroundings despite the presence of SDF forces inside”.
The SDF said nine of its fighters were killed and 20 wounded in clashes around al-Aqtan.
Hasakah province, which largely remains under SDF control, is home to the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli, the main prisons holding Islamic State detainees, and a camp holding thousands of IS-linked prisoners.
GOVERNMENT FORCES DEPLOY
Reuters journalists saw government forces deployed in the city of Raqqa that the SDF had captured from Islamic State in 2017, and at oil and gas facilities in the eastern province of Deir al-Zor – both areas the Kurdish forces had held for years.
It follows the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from districts of Aleppo city they had controlled for years after fighting there earlier this month.
The 14-point deal published by Syria‘s presidency showed Abdi’s signature alongside Sharaa’s.
It stipulates that the prisons, along with all border crossings and oil and gas fields, would be handed to government control – steps the SDF had long resisted.
The timing of the handover of the prisons and camps was not announced.
Abdi, the SDF commander, confirmed on Sunday that the SDF had agreed to withdraw from Deir al-Zor and Raqqa provinces.
Abdi said he is set to meet Sharaa in Damascus on Monday and would share the details of the agreement with the public after his return to SDF-held territory, Kurdish media reported.
The deal says that all SDF forces will be merged into the defense and interior ministries as “individuals” and not as units, as the SDF had sought.
It commits the SDF to expel all non-Syrian figures affiliated to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish militant group which fought a decades-long insurgency in Turkey.
Senior figures from Erdogan’s ruling AK Party said this removed a major obstacle to Turkey’s peace process with PKK militants.
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Israeli Government Sends 2026 Budget to Parliament, Approval at Risk From Rifts
A drone view of Jerusalem with the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, in Jerusalem, Feb. 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg
Israel’s Finance Ministry said on Monday it delivered the 2026 state budget draft to parliament ahead of a preliminary vote on Wednesday, though the plan’s prospects are clouded by political fractures that have strained the ruling coalition.
Delayed by political infighting, the cabinet last month approved the spending plan for this year after defense outlays were raised to 112 billion shekels ($35.45 billion) from an initial 90 billion.
The budget, as well as an accompanying economic plan, faces an uphill battle for approval as the government has become increasingly polarized. By law it must be approved by the end of March or an election would be triggered.
If approved on Wednesday, the budget will head to parliament‘s finance committee where it could undergo changes before its final two votes in the plenum.
For more than two years parties in the ruling coalition have splintered over the war in Gaza, the ceasefire that has halted it, and demands by ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties to exempt Jewish seminary students from mandatory military service.
In all, state spending would be 662 billion shekels excluding debt servicing. The deficit ceiling was set at 3.9% of gross domestic product, a level the Bank of Israel deems as too high since it does not allow for a reduction in the debt burden.
The budget deficit slipped to 4.7% of GDP in 2025 from 6.8% in 2023. A spike in defense costs due to the Gaza war pushed the deficit higher the past two years.
While the ceasefire has halted most fighting, it has not stopped entirely, and both sides have accused one another of violating the deal’s provisions.
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Iran to Consider Lifting Internet Ban as Brutal Crackdown Quells Protests; State TV Hacked
An Iranian woman walks on a street in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 19, 2026. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran may lift its internet blackout in a few days, a senior parliament member said on Monday, after authorities shut communications while they used massive force to crush protests in the worst domestic unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
In the latest sign of weakness in the authorities’ control, state television appeared to be hacked late on Sunday, briefly showing speeches by US President Donald Trump and the exiled son of Iran‘s last shah calling on the public to revolt.
Iran‘s streets have largely been quiet for a week, authorities and social media posts indicated, since anti-government protests that began in late December were put down in three days of mass violence.
An Iranian official told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the confirmed death toll was more than 5,000, including 500 members of the security forces, with some of the worst unrest taking place in ethnic Kurdish areas in the northwest. Western-based Iranian rights groups also say thousands were killed.
ARRESTS REPORTED TO BE CONTINUING
US-based Iranian Kurdish rights group HRANA reported on Monday that a significant number of injuries to protesters came from pellet fire to the face and chest that led to blindings, internal bleeding, and organ injuries.
State television reported arrests continuing across Iran on Sunday, including Tehran, Kerman in the south, and Semnan just east of the capital. It said those detained included agents of what it called Israeli terrorist groups.
Opponents accuse the authorities of opening fire on peaceful demonstrators to crush dissent. Iran‘s clerical rulers say armed crowds encouraged by foreign enemies attacked hospitals and mosques.
The death tolls dwarf those of previous bouts of anti-government unrest put down by the authorities in 2022 and 2009. The violence drew repeated threats from Trump to intervene militarily, although he has backed off since the large-scale killing stopped.
Trump’s warnings raised fears among Gulf Arab states of a wider escalation, and they conducted intense diplomacy with Washington and Tehran. Iran‘s ambassador to Saudi Arabia Alireza Enayati said on Monday that “igniting any conflict will have consequences for the entire region.”
INTERNET TO RETURN WHEN ‘CONDITIONS ARE APPROPRIATE’
Iranian communications including internet and international phone lines were largely stopped in the days leading up to the worst unrest. The blackout has since partially eased, allowing accounts of widespread attacks on protesters to emerge.
The internet monitoring group Netblocks said on Monday that metrics showed national connectivity remained minimal, but that a “filternet” with managed restrictions was allowing some messages through, suggesting authorities were testing a more heavily filtered internet.
Ebrahim Azizi, the head of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said top security bodies would decide on restoring internet in the coming days, with service resuming “as soon as security conditions are appropriate.”
Another parliament member, hardliner Hamid Rasaei, said authorities should have listened to earlier complaints by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei about “lax cyberspace.”
During Sunday’s apparent hack into state television, screens broadcast a segment lasting several minutes with the on-screen headline “the real news of the Iranian national revolution.”
It included messages from Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran‘s last shah, calling for a revolt to overthrow rule by the Shi’ite Muslim clerics who have run the country since the 1979 revolution that toppled his father.
Pahlavi has emerged as a prominent opposition voice and has said he plans to return to Iran, although it is difficult to assess independently how strong support for him is inside Iran.