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The Pakistan-Turkey Axis: A New and Dangerous Threat to Israel
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, Oct. 30, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas
While the world’s cameras were fixed on the smoldering borders of the Levant and the political maneuverings in Tehran, a geopolitical earthquake occurred in Islamabad. It was quiet, bureaucratic, and largely ignored by the mainstream media.
While the Israeli security establishment has been justifiably fixated on the Iranian “Ring of Fire” — a new, potentially deadlier axis has solidified.
The signing of a comprehensive hydrocarbon exploration agreement between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) and the Pakistani government was framed as a routine economic partnership — a lifeline for Pakistan’s failing energy grid and a boon for Turkey’s industrial ambition.
This protocol marks the operational fusion of Turkey — a NATO member increasingly hostile to the West — and Pakistan, a volatile, nuclear-armed state. This alliance marries Neo-Ottoman expansionism with the “Islamic Bomb,” creating a pincer movement that threatens to encircle the Jewish State from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean.
The Maritime Siege
To understand the gravity of this pact, one must look beyond the gas drills. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long championed the “Blue Homeland” (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, seeking to project Turkish naval power far beyond the Aegean. This agreement grants Turkey exclusive rights to operate within Pakistan’s maritime economic zone.
In strategic terms, this hands the Turkish Navy a forward operating base in the Indian Ocean. For the first time, a hostile power sits at the eastern gateway to the Red Sea. Israel’s economy relies on freedom of navigation; 90% of its trade travels by sea. By planting its flag off the coast of Karachi, Ankara has effectively placed a chokehold on the eastern approaches to Eilat. Turkey now controls the entrance to Israel’s trade routes in the Mediterranean, and stands ready to interdict them in the Indian Ocean.
Outsourcing the Bomb
However, the most chilling aspect of this rapprochement is the one hidden in the fine print. Pakistan is a nuclear power teetering on the brink of economic collapse, desperate for hard currency. Turkey is a rising military power with cash to spend and a leader who has openly lamented his lack of nuclear missiles.
Erdoğan has never been shy about his nuclear ambitions, famously asking his party members why Israel should possess “atomic freedom” while Turkey is shackled by non-proliferation treaties. The Turkey-Pakistan axis solves this problem without a single centrifuge spinning in Anatolia.
The deal involves massive transfers of Turkish capital to Islamabad. It is dangerously naive to believe this is merely for natural gas. The “Pakistan Model” of proliferation — perfected by the A.Q. Khan network — is effectively open for business. The fear is that we are witnessing a “stationing” arrangement: Turkish funding in exchange for a nuclear umbrella, or worse, the transfer of tactical nuclear technology. This creates a “Sunni Nuclear Power” to rival the Shiite threat from Iran, leaving Israel caught between two atomic fires.
A NATO Trojan Horse
Perhaps the most infuriating element of this developing crisis is the silence from the West. Washington and Brussels, desperate to keep Turkey within the NATO fold, have turned a blind eye to Ankara’s pivot East. They continue to treat Erdoğan as a prodigal son who will eventually return to the Western family, rather than an independent actor building a rival power bloc.
This silence is dangerous. The integration of Turkish drone technology — specifically the TB3 and Anka platforms — with Pakistani military assets has created a feedback loop of combat data that bypasses NATO oversight. Pakistan tests these weapons in high-intensity border conflicts; Turkey refines the software and tactics for potential use in the Mediterranean. When the next conflict erupts, the IDF may not just face Hamas rockets or Hezbollah missiles, but a synchronized adversary equipped with NATO-standard avionics and South Asian nuclear delivery systems.
The Illusion of Safety
We have spent decades worrying about the threat from the Shia Crescent. We have ignored the consolidation of a radical Sunni axis that rejects the Western order and views Zionism as its primary ideological foe.
Both Ankara and Islamabad have spent 2025 vying for the title of “Defender of Al Quds.” This energy deal gives them the independent infrastructure to act on that rhetoric. They no longer need American permission, American fuel, or American weapons. And that is dangerous.
Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx
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Downed Planes Raise New Perils for Trump as Tehran Hunts for Missing US Pilot
Traces of an Iranian missile attack in Tehran’s sky, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, April 3, 2026. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Two US warplanes were downed over Iran and the Gulf, Iranian and US officials said on Friday, with two pilots rescued and a third still missing and being hunted by Tehran’s forces.
The incidents show the risks still faced by US and Israeli aircraft over Iran despite assertions from US President Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that their forces had total control of the skies.
The first plane, a two-seat US F-15E jet, was shot down by Iranian fire, officials in both countries said.
The second plane, an A-10 Warthog fighter aircraft, was hit by Iranian fire and crashed over Kuwait, with the pilot ejecting, two US officials said.
Two Blackhawk helicopters involved in the search effort for the missing pilot were hit by Iranian fire but made it out of Iranian airspace, the two US officials told Reuters.
The degree of injuries among the crew of the aircraft remained unclear. The status and whereabouts of the missing F-15E crew member was not publicly known.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it was combing an area near where the pilot’s plane came down in southwestern Iran and the regional governor promised a commendation for anyone who captured or killed “forces of the hostile enemy.”
Iranians, who have been pummeled by American air power for weeks, posted gleeful messages celebrating the plane downings. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on X that the U.S. and Israel’s war had been “downgraded from regime change” to a hunt for their pilots.
Trump has been in the White House receiving updates on the search-and-rescue operation, a senior administration official told Reuters. The Pentagon and US Central Command did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
NO SIGN OF END TO WAR
The prospect of a US service person being alive and on the run inside Iran raises the stakes for Washington in a conflict with low public support and no sign of an imminent end.
Iran has officially told mediators it is not prepared to meet with US officials in Islamabad in coming days and that efforts to produce a ceasefire, led by Pakistan, have reached a dead end, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
The US and Israel opened the campaign with a wave of strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. The war has killed thousands and threatened lasting damage to the global economy.
So far, 13 US military service members have been killed in the conflict and more than 300 have been wounded, according to the US Central Command.
Iran has rained down drones and missiles on Israel. It has also taken aim at Gulf countries allied to the US, which have so far held back from joining the war directly for fear of further escalation.
In a security alert on Friday, the US embassy in Beirut said Iran and its aligned armed groups may target universities in Lebanon and urged US citizens in the country to leave while commercial flights are still available.
Israel has been waging a parallel campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon after the militant group fired at Israel in support of Iran.
TRUMP THREAT TO STRIKE BRIDGES, POWER PLANTS
On Friday, as Trump threatened to hit its bridges and power plants, Iran struck a power and water plant in Kuwait, underlining the vulnerability of Gulf states that rely heavily on desalination plants for drinking water.
On Thursday, Trump posted footage on social media showing dust and smoke billowing up as US strikes hit the newly constructed B1 bridge between Tehran and nearby Karaj, which was due to open this year, and said more attacks would follow.
“Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants!” he wrote in a subsequent post.
On Friday, a drone hit a Red Crescent relief warehouse in the Choghadak area of Iran’s southern Bushehr province.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery had been hit by drones. Other attacks were also reported to have been intercepted in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. Missile debris landed near the Israeli port of Haifa, site of a major oil refinery.
Oil markets were closed after benchmark U.S. crude prices gained 11% on Thursday following a speech by Trump that offered no clear sign of an imminent end to the war.
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US-Iran: Diplomatic Push Falters as Qatar Steps Back and Pakistan Talks Stall
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks after a meeting with the Lebanese president at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon, Feb. 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Emilie Madi
i24 News – Diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appear to have reached an impasse, as key regional mediators pull back and broader talks stall.
According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, Qatar has informed US officials that it does not wish to take a central role in mediating between the two sides. Officials familiar with the matter said Doha has made clear it is “not willing” to lead negotiations or act as the primary broker.
At the same time, Pakistan-led efforts to bring Iranian and American officials together have also stalled. Mediators say Tehran has refused to attend proposed meetings in Islamabad, calling Washington’s conditions “unacceptable,” further underscoring the widening gap between the two sides and the growing difficulty of restarting dialogue.
Despite the deadlock, diplomatic channels have not fully closed. Turkey and Egypt are continuing parallel efforts to revive talks, with discussions underway about potential alternative venues, including Doha and Istanbul.
US President Donald Trump downplayed the impact of recent military developments on diplomacy, including the destruction of a US fighter jet during operations in Iran. Speaking in a brief exchange with an NBC News journalist, he said: “No, not at all. It’s war. We are at war.”
He further fueled speculation with a cryptic social media post on Truth Social, writing: “Keep the oil, anyone?” criticising international allies on Friday over rising fuel prices. Trump appeared to mock allies such as the United Kingdom, writing that they should “keep the oil.”
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Report: Iran Retains Significant Missile Capability Despite Weeks of US-Led Strikes
Iranian missiles are displayed in a park in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 31, 2026. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
i24 News – Despite weeks of sustained airstrikes by the United States and its allies, Iran has reportedly managed to retain a substantial portion of its military capabilities, particularly its ballistic missile arsenal.
According to a report by The New York Times citing US intelligence assessments, Tehran has developed methods to mitigate the impact of the strikes, allowing it to preserve and restore key parts of its missile infrastructure.
While the Pentagon has claimed responsibility for striking more than 11,000 targets over five weeks and reducing the rate of Iranian missile fire, intelligence officials now caution that the actual damage may be more limited than initially assessed. Iranian forces are reportedly able to rapidly repair or reactivate missile launchers stored in heavily fortified or underground facilities, sometimes within hours of being hit.
Analysts also point to the widespread use of decoy sites, which may have drawn strikes away from operational assets. Many of the targeted locations are believed to have contained dummy installations, complicating efforts to accurately gauge the degradation of Iran’s ballistic capabilities. Combined with deep underground bunkers and dispersed storage networks, this approach is seen as enabling Tehran to maintain a higher level of readiness than publicly estimated.
US intelligence officials assess that this resilience reflects a deliberate strategy: preserving a credible long-range strike capability as both a deterrent and a bargaining tool in any future negotiations, while ensuring regime survival and continued regional influence.
Despite sustained air dominance claimed by Washington and its allies, Iran’s adaptive tactics continue to complicate battlefield assessments, leaving the true balance of power in the conflict uncertain.