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What Would Happen if America Turned Against Israel — and US Jews?
An Israeli flag and an American flag fly at Abu Dhabi International Airport before the arrival of Israeli and US officials, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Aug. 31, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Christoper Pike
The United States is arguably Israel’s greatest friend and ally. But what if it wasn’t anymore? What would American Jews and Israel have to do then?
With the recent election of Zohran Mamdani as the next mayor of New York City, which is home to more Jews than anywhere else in the US, the rise to power of anti-Israel politicians is now more apparent than ever. Indeed, as anti-Israel and antisemitic politics in both the Democratic and Republican parties becomes increasingly popular, it may only be a matter of time before enemies of the Jewish State dominate both houses of Congress, and even the US presidency. If that happens, Israel, its supporters, and all Jewish Americans need to be ready.
How would an anti-Israel US behave? Firstly, it would not support Israel in international forums, like the UN Security Council. As a result, Israel would face severe diplomatic isolation, unlike anything it has ever seen — even worse than the isolation Israel faces now. Indeed, Israel could end up becoming a pariah state like North Korea.
If the US ceases to be its ally, Israel would also likely face severe economic consequences. Currently, the US is Israel’s largest trading partner. Trade between the two countries is valued at $35 to $40 billion a year. Imagine if the US severely cut trade ties with Israel or even stopped trading with Israel entirely. The Israeli economy would be in danger.
Things wouldn’t be better for American Jews or other Americans who support Israel either. In fact, the kind of hostility Jews and supporters of Israel face in the US now might pale in comparison to the hostility they would face if the US was no longer a friend of the Jewish State. Eventually, even state-sponsored antisemitism could occur. In fact, many Jews around the world today will tell you they already feel as if it’s the 1930s all over again.
Both Israel and American Jews should immediately begin preparing for such a nightmarish scenario. There’s no time to waste.
For its part, Israel must be ready for a mass influx of immigration from the US. Absorbing immigrants, however, will probably be the least of Israel’s worries if the US is no longer its ally. The bigger problem will be reducing dependence on the US, especially in regards to military equipment and trade.
In Israel’s formative years, few countries were willing to sell arms to the Jewish State, so Israel had to be as self-sufficient as possible, and manufacture much of its own military equipment. Today, Israel has a thriving arms industry, one of the best in the world. Nevertheless, Israel is still too dependent on US military equipment. This has to change. Israel must undertake efforts to ensure that it can manufacture most if not all its own arms. Everything from ammunition to fighter aircraft. Because if the US ceases to be Israel’s ally, it will severely restrict its sale of arms to the Jewish State, if not stop altogether.
Furthermore, Israel must learn to survive without the US as a major trading partner. It must seek new trade partners and consolidate trade with current partners. Israel should do its utmost to ensure that it is as economically self-sufficient as possible in the event that the US decides to impose crippling sanctions or even a full-scale trade embargo.
Meanwhile, American Jews should prepare for the possibility that they might have to immigrate to Israel if being Jewish in the US becomes impossible and even threatens their lives. A good start would be learning Hebrew.
This is obviously a doomsday scenario, which will hopefully never come to pass. Nonetheless, we should all be prepared for the possibility that, in the future, the US may no longer be Israel’s ally — and might become hostile to all its Jewish citizens. Better to be safe than sorry.
Jason Shvili is a freelance writer and commentator on Jewish affairs, Israel, and the Middle East.
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Checking Iran’s Enriched Uranium Stock Is ‘Long Overdue,’ IAEA Report Says
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi addresses the media during their Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, Sept. 9, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
Iran still has not let inspectors into the nuclear sites Israel and the United States bombed in June, the UN atomic watchdog said in a confidential report on Wednesday, adding that accounting for Iran’s enriched uranium stock is “long overdue.”
The IAEA‘s own guidelines say it should verify a country’s stock of highly enriched uranium, such as the material enriched to up to 60 percent purity in Iran, a short step from the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade, every month.
The IAEA has been calling on Iran for months to say what happened to the stock and let inspections fully resume quickly. The two sides announced an agreement in Cairo in September that was supposed to pave the way towards that. However, progress has been limited, and Iran now says the agreement is void.
“The agency’s lack of access to this nuclear material in Iran for five months means that its verification … is long overdue,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the report to member states seen by Reuters.
CONCERNS ABOUT DIVERSION, INSPECTIONS CRITICAL
“It is critical that the agency is able to verify the inventories of previously declared nuclear material in Iran as soon as possible in order to allay its concerns … regarding the possible diversion of declared nuclear material from peaceful use,” it added.
The report said the quantity of highly enriched uranium Iran has produced and stored is “a matter of serious concern.” The IAEA has now lost so-called continuity of knowledge of Iran’s enriched uranium stocks, it added, meaning re-establishing a full picture will be arduous.
The agency has so far only inspected some of the 13 nuclear facilities that were “unaffected” by the attacks and none of the seven that were, it said.
ENOUGH FOR 10 NUCLEAR BOMBS
One reason Israel and the United States gave for their attacks, which destroyed one of Iran’s three enrichment facilities operating at the time and at least badly damaged the others, was that Iran was getting too close to being able to produce a nuclear weapon.
Western powers say there is no civil explanation for Iran’s enrichment to such a high level. Iran says its aims are entirely peaceful, and the IAEA said it had no credible indication of a coordinated weapons program there.
The IAEA estimates that before the attacks Iran had 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60 percent in uranium hexafluoride form, which can easily be enriched further. That is enough, if enriched further, for 10 nuclear bombs, according to an IAEA yardstick.
As a party to the NPT, Iran must send a detailed report to the IAEA on the status of the bombed facilities and its enriched uranium “without delay” but still has not done so, the report said. Only then can the IAEA inspect them.
NEW ENRICHMENT PLANT – STATUS UNKNOWN
While some enriched uranium will have been destroyed in the attacks, diplomats say much of the stock was likely stored at a deeply buried facility at Isfahan where the entrance tunnels were hit but damage appears limited.
Iran informed the IAEA shortly before the attacks it was setting up an enrichment facility at Isfahan, but the agency has not been able to inspect it.
“The agency does not know the precise location of [the plant], its status for safeguards purposes, including whether it contains nuclear material, or whether it was affected by the military attacks,” the report said.
While there is little sign of progress towards a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, both sides say they are open to the idea.
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UK Court Rules Palestinian NGO Can’t Appeal Decision Allowing Sale of F-35 Parts to Israel
An Israeli F-35 aircraft is seen on a runway during ‘Blue Flag,’ an aerial exercise hosted by Israel with the participation of foreign air force crews, at the Ovda military air base, southern Israel, Nov. 11, 2019. Photo: Reuters / Amir Cohen
A Palestinian NGO was on Wednesday refused permission to appeal a court ruling that Britain lawfully allowed F-35 fighter jet parts to be indirectly exported to Israel, despite accepting they could be used to breach international humanitarian law.
Al-Haq, a Palestinian rights group based in the West Bank, unsuccessfully challenged Britain’s Department for Business and Trade over its decision last year to exempt F-35 components when it suspended export licenses for arms that could be used in the war in Gaza.
The group last month asked the Court of Appeal for permission to challenge a lower court ruling that found Britain’s decision was lawful and dismissed Al-Haq’s challenge.
The Court of Appeal refused permission, ruling that it was a matter for the government to decide whether national security issues relating to the supply of F-35 components outweighed an assessment that Israel was not committed to complying with international humanitarian law.
When it suspended export licenses in 2024, Britain assessed that Israel was not committed to complying with such law in its military campaign, which targeted Hamas terrorists after their Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israeli communities.
But Britain did not suspend licenses for British-made F-35 components, which go into a pool of spare parts Israel can use on its existing F-35 jets.
London’s High Court rejected the challenge in June, saying in its ruling that then-business minister Jonathan Reynolds was “faced with the blunt choice of accepting the F-35 carve-out or withdrawing from the F-35 program and accepting all the defense and diplomatic consequences which would ensue.”
The Court of Appeal heard Al-Haq’s application for permission to appeal as Israel and Palestinian terrorist group Hamas signed an agreement last month to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
In a similar case earlier this month, a Dutch appeals court confirmed a decision to throw out a case brought by pro-Palestinian groups to stop the Netherlands exporting weapons to Israel and trading with Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories.
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Jack Schlossberg, JFK’s ‘100% half Jewish’ grandson, is running for Jerry Nadler’s seat in Congress
Jack Schlossberg, the Kennedy family scion whose father’s side of the family is Jewish, is officially running for Congress in one of the most Jewish districts in the United States.
He entered the race on Tuesday night after months of speculation and an initial dismissive reaction from the seat’s current occupant, Jerry Nadler.
Schlossberg, the 32-year-old grandson of President John F. Kennedy who has risen to prominence recently as a progressive social media darling, posted an announcement Tuesday night that focused on Donald Trump and the cost of living.
“We deserve better, and we can do better, and it starts with the Democratic Party winning back control of the House of Representatives,” Schlossberg said.
Schlossberg, 32, is running to represent New York’s 12th Congressional District, which covers the Upper West and East Sides and all of Midtown Manhattan, where he said he was “born and raised, where I took the bus to school every single day from one side of the district to the other.”
His mother is the author and former U.S. ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy; Schlossberg’s father is Jewish artist Edwin Schlossberg. His paternal grandfather, Alfred Schlossberg, worked in what he said in his announcement was the “shmatte business,” making men’s dress shirts.
The younger Schlossberg was raised with some Jewish traditions at home, such as incorporating Hanukkah traditions into their holiday parties.
“I feel I’m at least 100% half Jewish ;),” he told Hey Alma last year, as he broke out as a social media star.
Schlossberg was born in 1993 — one year after Nadler was first elected. Nadler, Congress’ most senior Jewish member, announced in September that he would not be running for reelection to make way for the next generation. Nadler’s retirement opened up an already-crowded race to represent a “crown jewel” of New York politics, with a number of others rumored to be exploring their own candidacies.
Other candidates officially running include Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, both members of the state Assembly, as well as 26-year-old non-profit founder Liam Elkind.
Schlossberg has worked as a political correspondent for Vogue and endorsed Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention. He has never held public office — a fact that Jerry Nadler himself hammered home in an interview with CNN following his retirement announcement, when Schlossberg was considering running.
“Well, there’s nothing particularly good or bad about a Kennedy holding my seat. But the Kennedy, unlike Schlossberg, should be somebody with a record of public service, a record of public accomplishment, and he doesn’t have one,” Nadler said. “And so, I don’t think he’s going to be a candidate in the end, and he certainly is not going to be a major candidate. There will be major candidates,” Nadler continued, pointing to Lasher as one example. “I’m sure there’ll be other candidates.”
Schlossberg took Nadler’s criticism in stride, writing on Instagram, “Honestly no offense taken whatsoever ! As a New Yorker, a progressive and an American, I have nothing but thanks and respects to offer Rep Nadler.”
Schlossberg endorsed Zohran Mamdani ahead of the Democratic mayoral primary, and said on Instagram that he didn’t “give a f–k” that he would “piss off” former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, his cousin by marriage. In an Instagram post responding to people who ask why he supports Mamdani as a Jew, Schlossberg said, “If you think that Zohran doesn’t like Jews, you’re f–king brainwashed.”
He added, “We cannot have this thing where if you disagree with Israeli policy, you hate Jews. That’s not good and that’s not fighting antisemitism. That’s horses–t and that’s a cop-out.”
In an interview with the New York Times the day after Mamdani’s election, he said he thought Mamdani’s victory — including his wide margin among young voters — was a positive omen for his own campaign.
Schlossberg defended Mamdani against allegations of antisemitism in that interview. “New York needs to be a safe place for Jewish people,” Schlossberg said. “I’m very sensitive to the Jewish community’s concerns, because I feel them, too. It bothers me.”
While a supporter of Mamdani, he disagreed with the mayor-elect’s pledge to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he sets foot in New York, and, unlike Mamdani, chose not to describe the conflict in Gaza as a “genocide.”
“I think it’s painfully clear that Israel’s committing atrocities in Gaza,” Schlossberg said.
In an interview days before Schlossberg entered the race, Democratic strategist Trip Yang said the 12th district race is “wide open.”
“Jerry Nadler is an icon, trailblazer. Nadler is one of the most popular figures in Manhattan history,” Yang said.
“This is one of the most important congressional districts — a lot of wealth, a lot of power in this district. But it’s an open seat,” Yang said. “So you can have a lot of big names enter right now. It is wide open.”
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