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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
(Nov. 28, 2024) The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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9 Israeli Soldiers Injured in Lebanon Fighting, 2 in Serious Condition
Two IDF soldiers. Photo: IDF.
i24 News – Two Israeli officers were seriously wounded and seven additional soldiers injured in two separate incidents in southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
According to the military, the first incident occurred during the morning hours amid an encounter between Israeli forces and armed militants operating in the area.
During the engagement, an anti-tank missile was launched toward deployed troops, which the IDF said was fired by Hezbollah operatives. Two officers were struck in the attack, with one sustaining serious injuries and the second moderately wounded.
A second incident took place overnight in a separate sector of southern Lebanon, when Israeli forces operating in the area came under rocket fire. In that strike, one officer was seriously wounded and six soldiers were moderately injured, the IDF said.
The incidents come amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, marked by repeated exchanges of fire and periodic ground confrontations in southern Lebanon.
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Report: Some 30 US Troops Injured in Iranian Attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi
Screenshot of video of Saudi Arabia’s Air Force intercepts Iranian drones over Saudi airspace. Photo: Saudi Defense Ministry / Screenshot
i24 News – Over 12 US troops have been injured in Iranian attacks on a Saudi air base in the past week, the Associated Press reported on Saturday citing two people who have been briefed on the matter.
On Friday, the Islamic Republic launched six ballistic missiles and 29 drones at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan air base, wounding at least 15 troops, including five seriously, according to the sources who spoke to AP on the condition of anonymity.
US officials initially reported that at least 10 US troops were injured, including two seriously wounded.
The base had come under attack twice earlier this week, including an incident that injured 14 US troops, according to the people who had been briefed on the matter.
Located some 100 kilometers from the Saudi capital of Riyadh, the base is run by the Royal Saudi Air Force, but is also used by US troops.
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At CPAC, a Generational Divide Over Republican Support for Israel
Gabriel Khuly, 19, and Joshua-Caleb Barton, 31, pose for a picture outside Generation Zion’s booth at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) USA 2026 at the Gaylord Texan Resort and Convention Center, in Grapevine, Texas, U.S., March 27, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Nathan Layne
When former Congressman Matt Gaetz opened his speech by aligning with a Republican faction “loyal to only one nation,” his message to the Conservative Political Action Conference was clear: It was a veiled swipe at perceived Israeli influence over US politicians, even without naming Israel outright.
A month into the US-Israeli war with Iran, Gaetz’s comments struck a discordant note at the annual CPAC event. They cut against calls for unity and exposed a growing Republican rift largely along generational lines, as younger conservatives increasingly question support for Israel.
That skepticism reflects a broader distrust of military intervention among younger Republicans, fueled in part by conservative figures such as Tucker Carlson, whose allegations of excessive Israeli influence on US policy have drawn accusations that he is stoking antisemitism. Carlson has repeatedly denied accusations of antisemitism.
The Iran war, including Israel’s role in it, emerged as one of the main flashpoints at CPAC, which for decades has served as a central gathering for Republican politicians and activists.
Jack Posobiec, a conservative commentator and online influencer, said age 45 is a dividing line, with the younger cohort more likely to question the party’s steadfast support of Israel.
“People want to paint it off as if it’s antisemitism, but I don’t think that’s what it is,” Posobiec told Reuters. “It’s just a question of: Why? What is the purpose of this relationship? And I hear that a lot from young voters.”
The issue has roiled the Democratic Party in recent weeks, with some lawmakers and primary candidates distancing themselves from the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC amid growing unease over Israel’s military actions.
It is now exposing fault lines among Republicans as well, turning off young voters who helped propel Trump to victory in 2024 and potentially complicating the party’s efforts to defend slim majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives heading into November’s midterm elections.
Noah Bundy, 17, and Ryder Gerrald, 18, conservative friends from Georgia attending their first CPAC, said they opposed the war with Iran and questioned whether the military operation put Israel’s interests ahead of America’s.
“I think they totally pushed us into a war with Iran,” Bundy said. “My whole family is military and none of us is really for it.”
“Our younger generation, we don’t like Israel as much compared to the older generation,” said Gerrald. He said he would prefer redirecting US taxpayer dollars toward domestic priorities, rather than spending to bolster Israel’s military.
EVANGELICAL SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL
The party’s pro-Israel stance, however, resonates strongly with evangelicals – a pillar of Trump’s political base – and with older voters like Harry Strine III, an 83-year-old CPAC attendee who was wearing a red “Make America Great Again” hat.
“Israel is God’s people,” Strine said. “The US was founded on the Judeo-Christian belief. I guess I’m a traditionalist.”
On the conference’s opening day, Rev. Franklin Graham said that, by striking Iran to protect Israel, President Donald Trump was like the biblical figure of Esther, a Jewish queen who, according to scripture, was elevated by God to save her people from annihilation in ancient Persia.
“I believe God has raised him up for a time such as this, like Queen Esther,” said Graham, a prominent Christian evangelist, invoking a core evangelical belief that the modern state of Israel represents the fulfillment of biblical prophecy.
But unease over the Iran war and rising gasoline prices has pushed Trump’s approval rating down to 36% – its lowest since his return to the White House – a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found. Support among his core base remains strong, however, with 74% of Republicans backing the strikes on Iran.
The debate over Israel coincides with a broader Republican fight over the future of the MAGA movement and who belongs in it. Allegations of antisemitism flared at a December event organized by Turning Point USA, a nonprofit focused on promoting conservative politics. At its first national event since founder Charlie Kirk’s death, commentator Ben Shapiro criticized fellow conservatives for associating with figures like white nationalist streamer Nick Fuentes, who has praised Hitler.
In his CPAC speech on Thursday, Gaetz said he did not agree with Shapiro and other conservative commentators “that we have some sort of near slavish loyalty to a country in a faraway land,” an apparent reference to Israel.
He argued that conservatives needed to allow for disagreements and that “antisemitism isn’t hiding around every corner and in every bush.”
Visitors to the CPAC booth of Generation Zion, a nonprofit group that trains young Christians and Jews to advocate for Israel and to combat antisemitism, could pick up a sticker reading “Tucker Carlson Hates Me,” a rebuke of the commentator’s recent criticism of Christian Zionism and Israel’s alleged sway over U.S. politics.
Gabriel Khuly, a 19-year-old volunteer for the group, said that while the Republican Party has an antisemitism problem, it is driven by a small minority with an outsized voice online.
“The actual anti-Israel, antisemitic wing of the Republican Party, I think, makes itself seem a lot bigger than it really is.”