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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
(Nov. 28, 2024) The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel Helps Somaliland Tackle Water Crisis, Welcomes First Ambassador After Recognition
Israel’s special envoy for water issues, Ambassador Rony Yedidia Clein, center, stands with Somaliland’s director-general at the Ministry of Water Development, Aden Abdela Abdule, second from the right, and other officials at a waste treatment facility in Israel, Feb. 25, 2025. Photo: Screenshot
Israel has initiated a multi-prong approach to aid Somaliland in overcoming a series of droughts which have plagued the Horn of Africa region for years, lending its support in water management and other areas as the two sides formally establish diplomatic relations.
On Monday, the first official delegation from Somaliland — 25 water sector workers — arrived in Israel following Jerusalem’s decision in December to become the first country to officially recognize the Republic of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state
Israel’s agency for international development cooperation, MASHAV, is spearheading the collaboration effort.
“Honored to welcome this morning the participants of the 1st [MASHAV] tailor-made course for Somaliland’s National Water Authority (SNWA) ‘National Water Resources Planning and Management,’ building capabilities and bilateral cooperation,” the Israeli agency’s head, Eynat Shlein, posted on social media.
Israel’s envoy for water issues, Ambassador Rony Yedidia Clein, and the Somaliland visitors toured the National Center for Water Education and Innovation at the Shafdan wastewater treatment complex in Rishon LeZion.
Despite being largely arid and having limited natural freshwater supply, Israel has emerged as a global leader in water management, recycling nearly 90 percent of its wastewater, primarily for agricultural irrigation.
Aden Abdela Abdule, who serves as director general of Somaliland’s Ministry of Water Development, met with Eden Bar Tal, director general of Israel’s Foreign Ministry. According to Shlein, the two officials “stressed the importance of the bilateral relations and the joint partnership. During the meeting and a separate discussion with the MASHAV team, we discussed the vast potential to cooperation between the two states.”
The situation has become dire for Somaliland’s farmers struggling with thirsty crops.
“We are desperate,” Faysal Omar Salah, who operates a family farm near the village of Lallays, told AFP, describing how his children survive on milk from his cattle. “If the rain crisis continues, we will just leave this land and go to a town. We hope Israel will help us cultivate our dry land.”
Israeli experts will reportedly visit Somaliland soon to aid in installing technology to counter a variety of water challenges which have hit the African country’s 6.2 million inhabitants. Over the last five years, the rainy seasons in the region have arrived late and diminished, causing shortages, regular droughts, and a need to rely on groundwater. In addition, Somaliland has seen water losses in its city regions and lacks major monitoring technology.
“Inshallah, Israel is going to help us changing our practices. Because if you want to change practices, you need to have knowledge,” Agriculture Ministry official Mokhtar Dahir Ahmed told AFP.
Meanwhile, Israel and Somaliland have moved to formalize their diplomatic relations.
On Wednesday, Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced it had formally welcomed Dr. Mohamed Haji, recognizing him as the fully accredited Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Somaliland to Israel. Israel will reciprocate by naming its ambassador to Somaliland in the coming weeks.
Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi is scheduled to make his first official visit to Israel at the end of March, the Jerusalem Post reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. He had previously visited in December for discreet negotiations that led to the partnership with the Jewish state.
According to experts, the growing Israel-Somaliland partnership could be a “game changer” for Israel, boosting the Jewish state’s ability to counter the Yemen-based Houthi terrorist group while offering strategic and geographic advantages amid shifting regional power dynamics.
Unlike most other states in the region, Somaliland has relative security, regular elections, and a degree of political stability — qualities that make it a valuable partner for international allies and a key player in regional cooperation.
Somaliland, which has claimed independence for decades in East Africa but remains largely unrecognized, is situated on the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden and bordered by Djibouti to the northwest, Ethiopia to the south and west, and Somalia to the south and east. It has sought to break off from Somalia since 1991 and utilized its own passports, currency, military, and law enforcement. The region remains distinct from the rest of Somalia due to the dominance of the Isaaq clan.
However, several Arab, Islamic, and African countries, including regional powers, publicly rejected the move, as did other states such as China.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warned Israel at the Al Jazeera Forum in Doha on Feb. 7 against establishing a military base in Somaliland.
“We will confront any Israeli forces that enter, because we oppose this and will never allow it,” he said.
That same day, the Somali president blasted Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland in an interview with Iran’s PressTV propaganda network. Mohamud labeled Israel’s recognition as “reckless, fundamentally wrong, and illegal action under international law.”
The European Union also opposed the decision, saying it “reaffirms the importance of respecting the unity, the sovereignty, and the territorial integrity” of Somalia.
US President Donald Trump has said he opposes recognition of Somaliland, but his administration defended Israel’s decision, saying Jerusalem “has the same right to conduct diplomatic relations as any other sovereign state.”
Somaliland’s minister of the presidency, Khadar Hussein Abdi, told AFP on Saturday that the government is prepared to offer mineral rights and military infrastructure in exchange for recognition from the United States. The region includes significant lithium deposits, putting it in potential competition with China which currently dominates the market, controlling roughly 65-70 percent of the world’s lithium refining capacities and 60 percent of rare earthing mining.
“Situated along the Gulf of Aden near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Suez Canal and carrying roughly 10 percent of global seaborne trade – the territory [Somaliland] offers not only resource potential but strategic logistics leverage,” Anne-Laure Klein, managing director in the portfolio operations group for Rothschild and Company, wrote on Thursday in Energy Capital & Power, a publication which encourages energy investments in Africa.
“For Washington, combining mineral access with positioning along a key maritime corridor could strengthen both supply chain security and transatlantic export routes at a time of intensifying geopolitical competition,” she added. “The question now is whether diplomatic recognition will follow – and if strategic geography and untapped minerals together are enough to tip the balance.”
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Young Republicans Flock to Anti-Israel Candidate in Florida Governor’s Race
Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback. Photo: Screenshot
A radically anti-Israel candidate in Florida’s Republican primary for governor is by far the most popular choice for young voters, despite being accused of antisemitism, a new poll has found.
The University of North Florida poll, released on Tuesday, showed 31-year-old James Fishback, the founder and chief executive of the investment firm Azoria, leading comfortably among Republican voters aged 18–34.
While Fishback remains a long-shot contender overall, the results found he captured 32 percent support among younger Republicans surveyed, compared to just 8 percent for US Rep. Byron Donalds, who continues to lead the broader primary field. Another 46 percent said they were not sure.
Overall, Donalds leads the field with 31 percent support, followed by Fishback far behind at 6 percent. More than half of those polled, 51 percent, said they were not sure who to support.
Fishback has drawn criticism for relentlessly attacking Israel and, according to some critics, veering into antisemitic discourse.
While addressing students at the University of Central Florida earlier this month, Fishback said he “will not visit the country of Israel under any circumstances.” The candidate went on to mock the Western Wall, calling it a “stupid wall.”
“This is how antisemitism rebrands itself in 2026,” Rabbi Steven Burg, the CEO of Aish, a global Jewish educational organization, wrote of Fishback’s comments in a recent op-ed for the Sun Sentinel.
Fishback has also criticized Donalds for arranging a forum at a south Florida synagogue, accusing the congressman of expressing favoritism toward Jewish people. The insurgent candidate also came under fire for praising supporters of antisemitic social media personality Nick Fuentes as “patriots” and “civil.”
“We had a great conversation, and they have a real pulse for what is going on in the country,” Fishback said of Fuentes’s supporters.
In December, the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) released a report analyzing online support for Fuentes, suggesting he has received a major boost from inauthentic amplification by anonymous actors in foreign countries such as India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
If elected, Fishback has vowed to direct all state government entities to “divest” from bonds issued by the Israeli government on his first day in office. He has also accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza and stated that the supposed “genocide” should be taught in Florida public schools.
Donalds, a stalwart conservative and strident ally of US President Donald Trump, has established himself as a firm supporter of Israel. The lawmaker expressed support for Israel’s right to self-defense in the wake of Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel. As skepticism about Israel has surged within the Republican Party in recent months, Donalds has maintained strong vocal support for the Jewish state.
During an interview with Fox Business in December, Donalds lamented rising antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment within the country and around the world.
“This level of antisemitism, this hatred against Jewish people and against Israel, it’s out of control. It’s insane,” Donalds said.
The latest University of North Florida poll, conducted among likely Republican voters in Florida, included a small sample of 39 respondents in the 18–34 age bracket. Though limited in scope, the findings reflect a broader trend seen in some national surveys, indicating a generational shift among parts of the Republican Party, with younger voters expressing more skepticism toward both Israel and American Jews than their older counterparts.
For example, the Manhattan Institute, a prominent US-based think tank, released a major poll in December examining the evolving makeup of the Republican Party (GOP) and its current attitudes toward Israel and Jewish Americans.
According to the results, newer entrants to the GOP are more likely to be antisemitic
“Anti-Jewish Republicans are typically younger, disproportionately male, more likely to be college-educated, and significantly more likely to be New Entrant Republicans,” the survey found. “They are also more racially diverse. Consistent church attendance is one of the strongest predictors of rejecting these attitudes; infrequent church attendance is, all else equal, one of the strongest predictors of falling into this segment.”
This group is also in general more politically liberal, according to the survey: “Given that many of these voters are younger and former Democrats, more progressive policy tendencies are unsurprising.”
The data also showed that older GOP voters are much more supportive of Israel and less likely to express antisemitic views than their younger cohorts.
According to the data, 25 percent of GOP voters under 50 openly express antisemitic views as opposed to just 4 percent over the age of 50.
Startlingly, a substantial amount, 37 percent, of GOP voters indicate belief in Holocaust denialism. These figures are more pronounced among young men under 50, with a majority, 54 percent, agreeing that the Holocaust “was greatly exaggerated or did not happen as historians describe.” Among men over 50, 41 percent agree with the sentiment.
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Fetterman Hosts AIPAC, Bondi Survivor in DC Office, Voices Support for ‘Jewish Community and Our Special Ally’
US Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) gives an interview in his office in the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, Jan. 18, 2024. Photo: Rod Lamkey / CNP/Sipa USA for NY Post via Reuters Connect
US Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) welcomed representatives from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and a survivor of the Bondi Beach massacre to his Washington, DC office on Tuesday, expressing support for the “global Jewish community” and the longstanding strategic partnership between the US and Israel.
“Proudly welcomed AIPAC and a survivor of the Bondi Beach massacre — a living reminder of the global scourge of antisemitism. My voice and vote will always stand with and support the global Jewish community and our special ally,” Fetterman posted on the social media platform X.
Proudly welcomed @AIPAC and a survivor of the Bondi Beach massacre—a living reminder of the global scourge of antisemitism.
My voice and vote will always stand with and support the global Jewish community and our special ally. pic.twitter.com/mz5damSvV9
— U.S. Senator John Fetterman (@SenFettermanPA) February 24, 2026
Fetterman, who has emerged as a prominent pro-Israel voice among Democrats on Capitol Hill, has signaled unwavering support for the Jewish state as its standing among liberal voters and progressive lawmakers has cratered.
The Pennsylvania lawmaker has repeatedly affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself from the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza and has defended the Jewish state from unsubstantiated claims of “genocide.” He also displayed the photos of the hostages captured by Hamas-led terrorists during their Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel in his office, drawing praise from pro-Israel Americans.
Despite his party’s increasing opposition to US military support for Israel, Fetterman has repeatedly vowed to vote in favor of such support for the Jewish state, rankling the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
“I’m a really strong, unapologetic supporter of Israel and it’s really not going to change for me when [Donald] Trump becomes [president]. My vote and voice is going to follow Israel,” Fetterman said during an interview in December 2024.
One year later, Fetterman lamented the deadly attack on a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach in December that killed 15 people who attended the Jewish gathering and wounded at least 40 others, expressing alarm about the global rise in antisemitism.
“After years of anti-Israel protests in Australia, at least 11 Jews were just gunned down at a Hanukkah event. Tree of Life to 10/07 to Bondi Beach: antisemitism is a rising and deadly global scourge. I stand and grieve with Israel and the Jewish global community,” he posted shortly after the shooting, using a figure based on an early death toll.
Though American lawmakers from both major political parties roundly condemned the Bondi Beach massacre, Fetterman’s decision this week to publicly meet with AIPAC, the premier pro-Israel lobbying group in the US, will likely raise eyebrows among his liberal supporters.
In the two years following the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, AIPAC’s standing among the Democratic party has plummeted dramatically. In primary races across the country, Democratic hopefuls are being pressed on their connections to AIPAC and facing demands to pledge not to accept funding from the group, which seeks to foster bipartisan support for the US-Israel relationship. The emergence of AIPAC support as a kind of litmus test has raised concerns among Jewish Democrats that the party is becoming increasingly inhospitable to Jews and Zionists.
According to polls, Fetterman is unpopular among Democratic primary voters, making him vulnerable in a primary competition. Numerous progressives in the Keystone State have signaled they are gearing up to challenge Fetterman for the party nomination in 2028.
However, Fetterman maintains shockingly high approval ratings among Republicans and strong approval ratings among independents, potentially injecting a significant degree of uncertainty into the Pennsylvania Senate race if he were to run as an independent in the general election.