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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
(Nov. 28, 2024) The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Actor-Director Rob Reiner dies at 78
Rob Reiner, who rose from an early career as a sitcom star to direct a run of film classics that included The Princess Bride and When Harry Met Sally…, has died at 78 along with his wife, Michele Singer, in what TMZ reported and Deadline confirmed was an apparent homicide, with wounds consistent with a knife attack.
Robert Reiner was born in the Bronx on March 6, 1947, to comedy writer, actor and director Carl Reiner, and mother actress mother Estelle (née Lebost). In interviews, Rob Reiner said his early upbringing resembled that depicted in The Dick Van Dyke Show, which his father created.
Describing his Jewish upbringing to JTA in 2017, he recalled his Yiddish-speaking grandmother, and his own Yiddish instruction. He described the experience as “home shuling.”
With a notable pedigree, Reiner distinguished himself, first in small TV roles and later as Michael “Meathead” Stivic in All in the Family, the bleeding-heart son-in-law of Archie Bunker. (Reiner, like his late father, was an outspoken progressive.)
In a 1994 interview with 60 Minutes, Reiner estimated he’d been called Meathead 1,241 times in that week alone.
But beginning in the 1980s, Reiner emerged as a director, debuting with an immediate comedy classic in 1984’s This is Spinal Tap, arguably creating the genre of mockumentaries — and starring as director Marty di Bergi.
While made with his friends, it was far from a lark. Reiner was immediately prolific, directing The Sure Thing, a modern update of It Happened One Night, the following year. Then the coming of age classic Stand By Me, based on a Stephen King short story, in 1986 and The Princess Bride in 1987, a streak of well-regarded films that, in their staying power, is virtually unrivaled in Hollywood.
Spanning genre from faux-rock doc to fantasy, Reiner proved his range almost immediately. When Harry Met Sally… hit theaters in 1989, Roger Ebert dubbed Reiner “one of Hollywood’s very best directors of comedy”— a compliment to remember given some of his later notices — and gave him the opportunity to cast his own mother in an instantly iconic punchline; his next film was Misery, another, more conventionally scary Stephen King adaptation.
Reiner’s career as a filmmaker saw the introduction of screenwriter Aaron Sorkin to the big screen (1992’s A Few Good Men), a famously maligned comedy, North (which Roger Ebert said he “hated, hated, hated”) and more diminishing returns. But even the later works had their impact on the zeitgeist. While not approaching the quotability of Spinal Tap, Princess Bride or When Harry Met Sally… (Estelle Reiner was the one who said “I’ll have what she’s having”), the term The Bucket List entered the lexicon because of his 2007 film.
Begining in the 2000s, Reiner’s work and public life were largely concerned with activism and civics. He cofounded the marriage equality group American Foundation for Equal Rights. He had a close circle of collaborators, directing a documentary about his best friend, Albert Brooks, but followed it up with a documentary, God & Country, about Christian Nationalism.
In a 2004 interview, explaining why, as a Jew, he pursued the project, he mentioned a trip he made with his wife the previous year, to Auschwitz, where his wife’s mother’s family was an inmate, and the rest of the family was murdered.
“You see what nationalism can do. You see the results of it,” Reiner said in an interview with the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty. “And so for us who are Jewish by birth, we know what the dangers are, and hopefully this film can at least be a little bit of a teaching tool to everybody.”
Describing his sense of humor, he told JTA there’s a reason Jews are funny. “You have Cossacks. You have Hitler. You have a lot of things weighing down on you. You have to have a sense of humor or you can’t survive.”
Reiner’s final film, Spinal Tap II: The End Continues, a sequel to his first, came out in October. Reiner’s life, and body of work, are already a blessing.
The post Actor-Director Rob Reiner dies at 78 appeared first on The Forward.
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China, Saudi Arabia Agree to Strengthen Coordination on Regional, Global Matters
Flags of China and Saudi Arabia are seen in this picture, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 7, 2022. REUTERS/Mohammed Benmansour
China and Saudi Arabia agreed to have closer communication and coordination on regional and international issues, with Beijing lauding Riyadh’s role in Middle East diplomacy, statements following a meeting between the nations’ foreign ministers on Sunday showed.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is on a three-nation tour in the Middle East that began in the United Arab Emirates and is expected to end in Jordan. He met with Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud in Riyadh on Sunday.
A joint statement published by China’s official news agency Xinhua did not elaborate on what issues the countries will strengthen coordination on, but mentioned China’s support for Saudi Arabia and Iran developing and enhancing their relations.
“(China) appreciates Saudi Arabia’s leading role and efforts to achieve regional and international security and stability,” the statement released on Monday said.
The statement also reiterated both countries’ support for a “comprehensive and just settlement” of the Palestinian issue and the formation of an independent state for Palestinians.
At a high-level meeting, Wang told his Saudi counterpart that China has always regarded Saudi Arabia as a “priority for Middle East diplomacy” and an important partner in global diplomacy, a Chinese foreign ministry statement on Monday said.
He also encouraged more cooperation in energy and investments, as well as in the fields of new energy and green transformation.
The countries have agreed to mutually exempt visas for diplomatic and special passport holders from both sides, according to the joint statement.
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Report: Iran Considers Removing Hezbollah Leader Naim Qassem
Lebanon’s Hezbollah Chief Naim Qassem gives a televised speech from an unknown location, July 30, 2025, in this screen grab from video. Photo: Al Manar TV/REUTERS TV/via REUTERS
i24 News – Iran is reportedly dissatisfied with the performance of Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem and is preparing to reorganize the group’s leadership, potentially removing him from his position, according to a report by Emirati outlet Erem News citing senior Lebanese diplomatic sources.
The report claims Tehran views Qassem as “unsuitable to lead Hezbollah at this critical stage,” arguing that he has failed to meet the leadership standards set by his predecessor, longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
Iranian officials are said to believe Qassem lacks sufficient political acumen and hold him responsible for the deterioration in relations between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state.
According to Erem News, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to oversee preparations for restructuring Hezbollah’s internal leadership during an upcoming visit to Beirut.
The visit is intended to assess the organization’s internal climate through direct meetings with senior Hezbollah figures and influential operatives.
“The Iranian minister seeks to monitor the general climate within Hezbollah and convey an accurate picture of the internal situation to decision-makers in Tehran,” the report said, adding that the findings would be used to inform “crucial decisions regarding anticipated changes at the head of the organization, most notably the fate of Naim Qassem.”