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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
(Nov. 28, 2024) The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Defense Minister Moves to Shut Down Israel’s Historic Army Radio Station
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
i24 News – Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said he plans to bring a proposal to the government on Sunday to close Galei Tzahal, the Israel Defense Forces’ radio station, ending a broadcast operation that has been on the air for more than seven decades.
If approved, the shutdown would take effect on March 1, 2026.
The announcement has triggered sharp backlash from journalists, legal experts, and civil society groups, who warn the move could have far-reaching implications for press freedom. Tal Lev-Ram, the station’s commander, has already signaled that Galei Tzahal’s leadership intends to challenge the decision in the High Court of Justice. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara also voiced concern, cautioning that the plan could amount to political intervention in public media and pose risks to freedom of expression.
Criticism has also come from the Israeli Press Council, headed by former Supreme Court justice Hanan Melcer, which labeled the proposed closure unlawful.
The council argued that dismantling a public broadcaster requires explicit legislation passed by the Knesset, not a government decision alone. Advocacy organizations, including the Movement for Quality Government, said they are preparing legal petitions as well.
Katz defended the initiative by citing the findings of a professional review committee, which concluded that a military-run radio station broadcasting political and current affairs programming to the general public represents a “democratic anomaly.”
He argued that Galei Tzahal has moved beyond its original mandate of serving soldiers and their families.
The committee examined a range of alternatives, such as converting the station into a music-only outlet or partially privatizing its operations.
Ultimately, it recommended either closing the station altogether or significantly scaling it back by removing political content. Katz noted that Galgalatz, the popular music station operated by the army, would continue broadcasting under the proposed plan.
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Trilateral Summit: Israel, Greece, Cyprus to Discuss Regional Security
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in the state memorial ceremony for the fallen of the Iron Swords War on Mount Herzl, Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025. Photo: Alex Kolomoisky/POOL/Pool via REUTERS
i24 News – Jerusalem will host a trilateral summit tomorrow, bringing together leaders from Israel, Greece, and Cyprus to discuss strengthening security cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
The summit follows reports by Amichai Stein of i24NEWS last week that the three countries are considering the formation of a joint rapid-response military unit.
The Israeli Prime Minister is scheduled to hold bilateral meetings with each of his counterparts before convening the full trilateral session, which will conclude with a joint press statement outlining the summit’s outcomes.
Media reports indicate that the initiative is driven in part by concerns in Athens over Turkey’s growing military activity in the region. The proposed rapid-response force is expected to enhance coordination, readiness, and overall security among the three allies.
Analysts say the meeting could solidify Israel, Greece, and Cyprus’s strategic partnership and signal a more unified approach to regional defense challenges.
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Justice Department Restores Trump Photo to Public Database of Epstein Files
An exterior image from the U.S. Virgin Islands property on Little St. James once owned by Jeffrey Epstein. via U.S. Justice Department
A photo of US President Donald Trump that had been removed from the cache of Jeffrey Epstein files released by the Department of Justice was restored on Sunday after officials determined none of Epstein’s victims were in the image, the department said.
The photo showing a desk with an open drawer containing a photo of Trump with various women was flagged by the Southern District of New York for review to protect potential victims.
“After the review, it was determined there is no evidence that any Epstein victims are depicted in the photograph, and it has been reposted without any alteration or redaction,” the Justice Department said on X on Sunday.
Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said earlier on Sunday his office removed the photo because of concerns about women in the photo. “It has nothing to do with President Trump,” Blanche said during a Sunday morning appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker.”
The Justice Department released thousands of documents on Friday related to Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender who committed suicide in 2019. But it has drawn criticism, including from some Republicans, over extensive redactions and few documents mentioning Trump despite his well-publicized friendship with Epstein.
During an ABC News interview on Sunday, Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called for a “full and complete investigation as to why the document production has fallen short of what the law clearly required.”
Up to 16 photos, including the desk drawer Trump image, were removed on Saturday from the Justice Department website, according to The New York Times, NPR and the Associated Press, although Reuters could not independently confirm the removals.
The Justice Department said on Sunday it acted with an abundance of caution after receiving requests from alleged victims and their lawyers to remove information.
Trump has not been accused of wrongdoing and has denied knowing about Epstein’s crimes.