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Does Biden’s Framework Pave Path to ‘Hezbollah Model’ in Gaza?
US President Joe Biden speaks on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in this White House handout image taken in the Oval Office in Washington, US, April 4, 2024. Photo: The White House/Handout via REUTERS
JNS.org – Hamas could be positioning itself to adopt a model similar to Hezbollah’s structure in Lebanon, where it remains a dominant military-terrorist and political force while allowing a toothless civilian administration to formally “govern.”
This goal potentially aligns well with the three-stage proposal for an end to the Gaza conflict proposed on May 31 by U.S. President Joe Biden, which was highly vague on how to ensure Hamas does not rebuild its power in the Strip.
The possibility of Hamas adopting the Hezbollah model in Gaza has garnered recent attention as a feasible strategy for the jihadist movement to maintain its military and political influence while ostensibly relinquishing civilian governance in Gaza to a nominally independent technocratic authority, or, in a similar version of this blueprint, the Palestinian Authority.
Jacky Hugi, the Arab Affairs editor at Army Radio, discussed Hamas’s possible adoption of the Hezbollah model in Gaza in Maariv in recent days, in which he explored how Hamas might use this approach to maintain its influence while reducing its direct governance responsibilities.
Hamas is fundamentally driven by the strategic goal of preserving its ability to retake Gaza following the war. The Islamist faction’s primary objective is to emerge from hostilities with an ability to rebuild its rocket arsenal, tunnels and jihadist attack army, presumably with Iranian help, and with its leadership largely unscathed, which it would rightly consider a significant victory.
If Hamas can’t immediately restore its political regime, its interim vision could include modeling its operations on Hezbollah in Lebanon—a potent terror army entity operating within a state where official civilian governance is nominal and ineffectual.
The burden of day-to-day governance in Gaza proved cumbersome for Hamas, particularly in the face of economic hardships and infrastructure failures. By handing over civilian administration to the Palestinian Authority or a technocratic body, Hamas could focus on its core activities: rebuilding its military capabilities and continuing its jihadist attacks against Israel.
Ultimately, Hamas’s end goal, in line with its Muslim Brotherhood ideology, is to establish an Islamic caliphate on Israel’s ruins, and it is flexible on how to reach that vision.
President Biden’s presented his three-point proposal as a means to stabilize the Strip and alleviate civilian suffering, but it could also enable a framework in which Hamas can step back from overt governance without disarming or dissolving its terror army.
Hamas’s interest in this kind of model is not new.
Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in Jerusalem and a former deputy director general and head of the Palestinian desk at the Ministry for Strategic Affairs, already noted in March this year, in a paper published at the Institute for National Security Studies, that Hamas has expressed willingness to let a technocratic government handle Gaza’s administrative functions. He noted that this sentiment was echoed by senior Hamas leader Abu Marzouk, who suggested that Hamas could agree to such an arrangement.
The risks of this approach are clear. For Israel and its allies, a Hezbollah-like Hamas entrenched in Gaza represents the resurgence of a massive security threat to the Israeli south and the entire country.
Hamas could initiate attacks or escalate conflicts far more frequently while allowing an empty shell of an administration to take responsibility for civilians’ welfare. The international community, under this scenario, would likely condemn any significant Israeli action to neutralize Hamas threats with the claim that this would destabilize the civilian government, which would become a fig leaf for Hamas.
As such, the international community, including the United States, must consider the long-term implications of facilitating a scenario where Hamas retains significant power behind a civilian facade. Such an outcome would boost and embolden the entire Iranian-led jihadist axis.
Israel, for its part, will likely be on guard so as to able to pre-empt Hamas’s potential strategy to replicate the devastating Lebanese model in Gaza.
Ensuring that Hamas’s terror army cannot resurface, and that any future civilian government in Gaza is free from Hamas’s influence is therefore paramount in preventing the rise of the “Hezbollah model” in Gaza.
If the model is allowed to gradually take shape, Hamas could in the future attempt to re-enact its 2007 coup and take full political power as well, as part of the goal of turning Gaza, once again, into an Iranian-backed terror fortress.
The post Does Biden’s Framework Pave Path to ‘Hezbollah Model’ in Gaza? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Harris, Trump Are in Tight Race in Michigan and Wisconsin, NYT/Siena College Opinion Poll Shows
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris waves from the stage on Day 4 of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, US, Aug. 22, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Wurm
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump are in a tight race in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin, according to an opinion poll by the New York Times and Siena College released on Saturday.
The NYT/Siena College poll found that Harris received 48% support among likely voters in Michigan with Trump garnering 47%, while in Wisconsin Harris holds 49% support to Trump’s 47%.
The surveys were conducted by telephone between Sept. 21 to 26, where interviewers spoke with 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 likely voters in Wisconsin.
The margin for sampling error among likely voters is about plus or minus four percentage points for each poll.
The polls also found that Harris had a lead of nine percentage points over Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College.
The post Harris, Trump Are in Tight Race in Michigan and Wisconsin, NYT/Siena College Opinion Poll Shows first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Regional Politicians, Others React to Killing of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint statement to the media in Baghdad, Iraq, April 22, 2024. Photo: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/Pool via REUTERS
The following are reactions by regional politicians and others to the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday:
IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY
The ministry said in a statement that Nasrallah’s “path will continue and his goal will be realized in Jerusalem’s liberation”.
YEMEN’S IRAN-ALIGNED HOUTHIS
The group said it mourned the killing of Nasrallah, adding: “The martyrdom … will increase the strength of sacrifice … determination and continuity.”
MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI, IRAQ’S PRIME MINISTER
He said the killing of Nasrallah showed “the reckless desire to expand the conflict at the expense of all the peoples of the region and their security and stability.”
HERZI HALEVI, ISRAEL’S CHIEF OF THE GENERAL STAFF
“Nasrallah indiscriminately murdered Israeli civilians and aimed to end this war with the destruction of the State of Israel. We made sure that did not occur. We eliminated him, and we will continue to grow stronger. Hezbollah has murdered innocent people worldwide, hiding his weapons under the homes of families, women and children and turning them into human shields. As we have shown, we will not allow such a threat to our citizens. We are determined to continue destroying the Hezbollah terrorist organization and to keep fighting.”
MOQTADA EL SADR, IRAQI SHI’ITE MUSLIM POLITICIAN
He said he mourned Nasrallah as “his companion in resistance”.
GEBRAN BASSIL, LEADING LEBANESE CHRISTIAN POLITICIAN
He said he mourned the death of Nasrallah as a major loss and said it was a hard time for all Lebanese, adding: “In the face of the Israeli enemy, we have no choice but to be together as Lebanese.”
MICHEL AOUN, FORMER LEBANESE PRESIDENT
In a statement mourning Nasrallah, he referred to “the dangers our country is witnessing as a result of the ongoing Israeli aggression which requires rising to the highest level of national solidarity that protects and fortifies our unity because that is the true salvation”.
SAAD AL-HARIRI, FORMER LEBANESE PRIME MINISTER
“The assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has plunged Lebanon and the region into a new phase of violence. It is a cowardly act condemned in its entirety by us, who paid dearly for the lives of our loved ones when assassination became an alternative to politics. May God have mercy on Sayyed Hassan and my sincere condolences to his family and comrades. We often disagreed with the deceased and his party and met a few times, but Lebanon was everyone’s tent. In this extremely difficult phase, our unity and solidarity remain the foundation.”
TURKISH PRESIDENT TAYYIP ERDOGAN
In a post on X after the killing of Nasrallah but which did not name him, Erdogan said he condemned recent attacks in Lebanon as part of what he called an Israeli policy of “genocide, occupation, and invasion” and said the Muslim world should show a more “determined” stance.
The post Regional Politicians, Others React to Killing of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran’s Khamenei: ‘Zionist Criminals Too Weak to Succeed Again the Resistance’
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with a group of students in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 2, 2022. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
i24 News – Responding on Saturday to the assassination by Israel of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has delivered familiar staples of Islamist rhetoric.
“The killing of defenseless civilians in Lebanon,” he said, “has once again revealed the savage nature of the rabid Zionists to everyone. On the other hand, it has proven how shortsighted and insane the policies of the leaders of the occupying regime are.”
The cleric inveighed against “the terrorist gang ruling the Zionist regime” that “hasn’t learned from its yearlong criminal war in Gaza & doesn’t understand the massacre of women, children and civilians cannot hurt the strong structure of Resistance or bring it to its knees. Now they’re testing the same absurd policy in Lebanon.”
“The Zionist criminals need to know that they are far too weak to be able to inflict any significant damage on the solid structure of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. All the Resistance forces in the region stand with and support Hezbollah. The Resistance forces will determine the fate of this region with the honorable Hezbollah leading the way.”
The post Iran’s Khamenei: ‘Zionist Criminals Too Weak to Succeed Again the Resistance’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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