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The Gaza War Has No Good Solutions, and Israel Remains Perilously at Risk
A child walks at the site of an Israeli air strike on a house, as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
Ten months after Hamas launched its surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it is possible to evaluate the achievements of the war’s two parties. Unlike the State of Israel, which officially declares its war aims, we can only estimate what Hamas’ war aims were before the October 7 attack.
Contrary to the opinions of several commentators who claimed that the goal of the war was to release Palestinian prisoners, it can be assumed that Hamas’ war goals were much broader and more ambitious, and some of them were even achieved.
In addition to the immediate goals of war, wars create wider circles of influence. War is like a stone that is thrown into a lake and creates ripples that reach areas far from the spot where the stone hit the water. The effect of war on events and processes is sometimes uncontrollable, not always predictable, and can last a long time. Sometimes the indirect effects are more significant than the goals defined by the combatants as their war aims. There are many examples: The United States overthrew Saddam Hussein in Iraq, but did not expect its victory to result in Iran’s taking advantage of the opportunity to become a regional power. Israel did not define a peace deal for Sinai as one of the goals of the Yom Kippur War, but that is what the war eventually led to. Israel succeeded in realizing its main war objective when it went into Lebanon in 1982, which was to remove the Arafat-led Fatah organization from Lebanon — but it did not take into account that that war would lead to the rise of the Shiite element in Lebanon led by Hezbollah.
In view of all this, the balance of achievements and failures of each side in the current war must be looked at with caution. Another difficulty in evaluation is the matter of quantifying achievements — that is, how to determine the “value” or strategic weight of each achievement compared to the failures or achievements of the other side. Without the ability to give such a value or weight it is difficult to make an overall assessment. Nevertheless, it is advisable to conduct an examination of the balance of achievements. Let’s start with Hamas and its allies — Iran and its proxies.
The achievements of Hamas and the resistance axis
Hamas managed to take advantage of the crisis in Israeli society in the months before the war to prepare and carry out a surprise attack that shocked and traumatized Israeli society to a degree comparable to the Yom Kippur War. Some believe that due to the massacre of civilians and the taking of the abductees, the trauma is even deeper.
As a result of the Hamas attack, the towns around the Gaza Strip were evacuated. Fear of a Hezbollah ground attack in the north led to the decision to evacuate the northern border towns as well, resulting in the total evacuation of about 200,000 people. A small number of residents of the south have been able to return and a slow reconstruction process has begun, but in the north, not only are the residents unable to return to their homes, but Hezbollah has spent the months of the war systematically destroying Israeli homes and property through precise shooting. It is difficult to exaggerate the magnitude of the achievement of the axis of resistance in forcing the evacuation of entire swaths of land and shrinking sovereign Israel, something that has not happened since the declaration of the state.
The fact that the army was caught by complete surprise resulted in many casualties on October 7. The hard fighting to occupy the Gaza Strip and destroy Hamas caused fewer casualties than estimated, but still, the number of casualties Israel has suffered is high. Since October 7, the IDF has lost the equivalent of an entire brigade in casualties and wounded, among them skilled special unit fighters and prominent field commanders.
The Hamas attack succeeded in mobilizing a broad and diverse international anti-Israel and indeed openly antisemitic front. The fight against Israel is being waged by states, NGOs, and international institutions such as the United Nations and the Human Rights Council. Huge demonstrations against Israel and supporting Hamas have been organized in major capitals throughout the free world.
Another campaign being waged against Israel is the legal campaign being conducted in the courts of international law, the ICC and the ICJ at The Hague, where lawsuits against Israel and its leaders are pending. These measures are damaging and have long-term consequences for Israel’s position. Another arm of this campaign is the mobilization of students in the United States and Europe for anti-Israel protests the likes of which have not been seen since the protests against the Vietnam War in the 1960s. At the same time, there is a strengthening of BDS organizations and a rising economic boycott of Israel by countries and companies. Various countries have banned military aid or even the transfer of aid as a stopover, as did Spain, which refused to allow an Indian ship loaded with military equipment destined for Israel to dock in its territory.
As an immediate result of the war and the many expenses that accompany it, Israel’s economy is facing difficult challenges. This was reflected by the leading rating agencies’ downward revision of Israel’s economic strength and growth forecast. The downgrade not only reflects the difficulties caused to Israel’s economy by the war but also makes it harder for Israel to raise cheap loans to finance war-created deficits.
The Hamas attack brought the Palestinian issue back to center stage. It is no longer possible to talk about progress toward a regional settlement without addressing the Palestinian issue, which means Israeli concessions. As part of the global support for the Palestinian cause, several countries have announced their recognition of a Palestinian state.
The Hamas attack mobilized several Iranian proxies to attack Israel. These attacks are primarily by Hezbollah on the northern border and by Yemen’s Houthis, who attack ships in the Red Sea and have fired missiles and anti-aircraft missiles at Eilat. Iraqi Shia militias also occasionally shoot at Israel. While it chose to conduct a limited campaign, Hezbollah has nevertheless caused a great deal of damage to Israel by exposing its weaknesses and inability to effectively stop Hezbollah fire.
The Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the massive Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of one of its senior officials in Syria drew relatively weak responses from the free world. This is worrying in and of itself and has consequences for the free world’s deterrence. This weakness of Israel’s allies reflects back on Israel.
The continuous attacks by Iran and its proxies on Israel expose a state of erosion of Israeli deterrence since October 7. Despite the success of the military operation in Gaza, Israel has not restored its regional deterrence.
Nine months after the attack, the internal divisions and struggles in Israeli society are reemerging around issues that create a fault line between supporters of the coalition and the government and the opposition and its various groups. To the previous issues of controversy has been added the issue of the hostages and the cessation of the war against continuation of the war and military pressure. These issues are being argued in an atmosphere of acute crisis of confidence among large contingents of citizens who do not believe the existing leadership is doing enough to free the hostages.
Hamas, even if greatly weakened and without its grip on parts of the Gaza Strip, remains the only ruler in the Strip. They are still in control, and they are holding dozens of hostages alive.
Israel’s main achievements
Despite a high price in casualties (albeit much lower than early estimates), Israel’s main achievement in the campaign is the destruction of Hamas’ military capabilities. Hamas as a significant military system no longer poses a threat to Israel. Israel took away its rocket capabilities and the ability to carry out a large ground raid across the border. The broader meaning is the termination of a central arm of the Iranian “ring of fire” plan around Israel. In the next confrontation against the “axis of resistance”, Israel will have one less front to be worried about and will be able to focus its efforts on the remaining theaters of operations.
Another important Israeli achievement that should not be underestimated is the breaking of the psychological barrier of the IDF commanders and the political echelon against a ground maneuver and the use of ground forces. At least since the Second Lebanon War in 2006, there has been a reluctance to use the maneuver as a decisive tool due to considerations of casualties and international pressure. As a result, Israel lost an important tool in its military arsenal and essentially gave up decisiveness, thus damaging Israeli deterrence. In this context, it is important to mention the role of the reserve forces and their return as a central force in the IDF, without which a major operation cannot be carried out.
The invasion of Gaza and accompanying destruction in the Strip created a severe trauma for Palestinian society that will undoubtedly reverberate in the Palestinian and regional consciousness for many years to come. The Palestinians as well as other parties in the region understand the price they may pay if they repeat a brutal attack and murder hundreds of Israeli civilians.
Israeli society has proven once again that it has healthy foundations and is committed to life. The widespread recruitment into the reserves, the return of many Israelis from abroad expressly to enlist, and the mobilization of civil organizations for the war effort once again proved the resilience and solidarity of Israeli society, which enable it to face difficult challenges.
The subject of the hostages is sensitive and painful. Many people see the half-empty glass – the dozens of hostages still being held alive in Gaza. But it should also be noted that about half the hostages, most of them women, children and the elderly, were released during the military operation at a relatively low price.
Another significant achievement is the coalition led by the United States and specifically by American Central Command to thwart the massive Iranian missile attack on Israel. Israel trained for several years and prepared with its partners for such a scenario, but until it is faced in reality, it is hard to know whether and how such a coalition would be activated on Israel’s side. Stopping the Iranian attack was a major success and proof of the existence of a coalition that knows how to function together on the operational level. In addition, Israel proved that its Arrow system is capable of intercepting dozens of ballistic missiles and that Israel is equipped with a unique global capability in this regard.
American backing, and the standing of the United States on Israel’s side, is a critical asset for Israeli national strength. However, the sending of aircraft carriers signaled Israeli weakness. Also, the uneven messages of the Americans over the past months, such as the pressure not to enter Rafah, the halting of arms shipments and other statements, did not add to and even weakened Israeli strength. The United States supports Israel, but with many reservations and limitations.
The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, Jordan, and even Saudi Arabia also participated in repelling the Iranian attack. This marked the peak of another Israeli achievement: the maintaining of the Abraham Accords and the potential for a settlement with Saudi Arabia, which is still on the table. The importance of this development should not be underestimated.
At the same time, Israel achieved another achievement: curbing the outbreak of additional arenas that Hamas hoped would be dragged into the conflict. Following the October 7 attack, Hamas hoped the West Bank as well as the Arab-Israeli sector would join the riots, as happened during Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021. In fact, the opposite happened. For the most part, the Arab-Israeli public was shocked by the barbarity of the attack (in which quite a few Arabs were also murdered) and expressed solidarity and a shared fate with the Jewish public.
What’s next
Israel is in a continuous and difficult campaign, the end of which is hard to discern. The Israeli success story of projecting regional, military, economic, and political power suffered a severe blow on October 7. The “axis of resistance” recognizes this weakness and is looking for another opportunity to strike Israel and weaken it further. In the background is Iranian nuclearization, which adds another dramatic dimension to the regional conflict centered on Iran, Israel, and the Sunni-Shia struggle.
Israel is faced with a dilemma. It has two alternatives. The first is talks to end the war and withdraw from Gaza, as demanded by Hamas. In exchange for this and the release of all Palestinian prisoners, Hamas says it will release the hostages. Taking this option would make it possible to reach a settlement in the north, because Nasrallah has said he will stop Hezbollah from firing if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel would be free to rehabilitate itself internally and improve its international position, and would also be able to prepare for the next campaign after a thorough learning of lessons and re-equipping. Israel would be able to resume the promotion of normalization with Saudi Arabia, which would open the door to a security and economic partnership and a regional alliance that would stop Iran and its proxies. Some believe the main purpose of the Hamas attack was to prevent just such an alliance, which would be a regional game-changer.
On the face of it, this alternative has many advantages. It is a tempting idea and many support it. But it has many risks. The withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip and the release of thousands of terrorists would in fact be an Israeli surrender and a relinquishment of most of the gains of the war. It would represent a tremendous victory for Hamas and the resistance front. It is not at all certain that Hamas would in fact release all the hostages it holds.
An Israeli withdrawal (including from the Philadephi axis) would mean a rapid restoration of Hamas’ military capabilities, with Iranian help. Israel, whose deterrence has been severely damaged, would find it difficult to gather legitimacy and support either domestically or internationally for a ground campaign aimed at destroying Hamas. It would be difficult to convince evacuated Israelis to return to their homes under Hezbollah’s umbrella. Israel may find itself losing in every direction.
In the second alternative, Israel continues to “mow the grass” in Gaza while putting pressure on Hamas and trying to reach a hostage deal. At the same time, Israel is building a governmental alternative to Hamas. Israel would be forced to reach a settlement in the north, and if this does not succeed, it would have no choice but to launch a limited attack to drive Hezbollah away from the border. This alternative is also full of risks and is far from simple. It has no clear end, and Israel could find itself in a regional war while it is immersed in a long-standing guerrilla war in Gaza. Its advantage would be the extinction of Hamas in Gaza and the guarantee of its non-return to power.
Both alternatives indicate that Israel will not return to the reality of October 6. It is facing difficult years of a prolonged existential struggle. To this end, it is imperative for Israel to be led by a leadership that enjoys the broad trust of the public.
One more thing to remember: History is full of unexpected turns and twists. The impact of events far from the Middle East, such as the selection of the next American president, can affect Israel’s ability to operate in Gaza and Lebanon and can greatly affect deterrence against Iran. Regarding Iran, a development that leads to regime change there could be a game-changing turn. A change in other areas of crisis in the world, such as around Taiwan and the South China Sea or continued Russian advances on the Ukraine front, could change the picture dramatically. In those cases, we are likely to see a shift in global attention toward those crisis centers and a tightening of ranks among the countries of the free world, and as a result, more significant support for Israel and its policies.
Prof. Eitan Shamir serves as the head of the BESA Center and as a faculty member in the Department of Political Science at Bar-Ilan University. His latest book is The Art of Military Innovation: Lessons from the IDF, Harvard University Press, 2023 (with Edward Luttwak). A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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ADL Research: 24% of Americans Believe Recent Violence Against Jews Is ‘Understandable’
Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim who were shot and killed as they left an event at the Capital Jewish Museum, pose for a picture at an unknown location, in this handout image released by Embassy of Israel to the US on May 22, 2025. Photo: Embassy of Israel to the USA via X/Handout via REUTERS
The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) released a report on Friday revealing American attitudes about antisemitic violence following the targeted attacks earlier this year against Jews in Boulder, Colo., Harrisburg, Pa., and Washington, D.C. The watchdog group found a sizable minority (24 percent) found the attacks “understandable” while 13 percent regarded them as “justified.”
The ADL surveyed a representative sample of 1000 Americans on Thursday, ensuring the group matched accurate proportions of the country’s demography. The findings showed disparate views across age groups and partisan affiliations while also a clear, majority consensus on many questions.
The survey showed that 87 percent of respondents believed the three recent antisemitic attacks to be unjustifiable while 85 percent called them morally wrong and 77 percent assessed them as antisemitic. Eighty-six percent regarded the violence against Jews as hate crimes. However, nearly a quarter of respondents said the attacks were “understandable.”
More Republicans (15 percent) than Democrats (11 percent) regarded the attacks as justified, while more Republicans (79 percent) than Democrats (77 percent) saw the attacks as antisemitic. Partisan differences also manifested in support for increased government action against antisemitism with 74 percent of Republicans in favor compared to 81 percent of Democrats.
In presenting their research findings, the ADL emphasized the broad agreement in American opposition to antisemitic violence and conspiracist tropes before noting the presence of a distinct minority of “millions of people who excuse or endorse violence against Jews—an alarming sign of how anti-Jewish narratives are spreading.” For example, 67 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans agree that antisemitism is a serious problem.
Smaller numbers among the Democrats (25 percent) and Republicans (23 percent) will acknowledge antisemitism as a concern in their own party. The ADL poll suggests the legitimacy of such suspicions, finding that “28 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Democrats agreed with tropes such as Jews have too much influence in politics and media.”
Partisan affiliations correlated with where respondents saw the most significant antisemitic threats. Republicans expressed a 3.6 times greater likelihood of worries about left-wing antisemitism compared to Democrats who were 4.4 times as likely to focus on right-wing antisemitism.
The pollsters found that attitudes toward the severity of the antisemitic threat differed according to age.
While 80 percent of silent generation respondents saw antisemitism as a serious problem, that number fell to 65 percent for baby boomers and members of Generation X. The rates dropped again for millennials (52 percent) and Gen-Zers (55 percent).
Perceptions of antisemitism in local communities also differed by generation. While 19 percent of Americans overall report having witnessed antisemitism in their communities, that figure jumps to 33 percent for Gen-Zers and 20 percent for millennials. Among the boomers it drops to 10 percent and for Silent Generation respondents it reaches 17 percent.
Large numbers saw the threat of popular protest slogans “globalize the intifada” and “from the river to the sea” with 68 percent seeing the phrases as potentially fueling violence, a view held even among 54 percent of those who favor protests against Israel.
Researchers also observed a correlation between Israel support and perceiving the seriousness of antisemitism in America. While 74 percent of those favorable to Israel saw domestic antisemitism as significant, only 57 percent of those with negative views of the Jewish state agreed.
Nearly a quarter of those polled—24 percent—expressed the conspiratorial view that some group had staged the attacks to provoke sympathy for Israel. A second report also released by the ADL on Friday showed the rise in discussions of “false flag” attacks on the Reddit website in response to the antisemitic violence.
The ADL warned that “these beliefs are especially dangerous because they justify holding Jewish Americans responsible for the actions of the State of Israel, effectively viewing them as collectively responsible for international politics—making them greater targets.”
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Sen. Bernie Sanders Calls on Democrats to Stop Accepting Money From AIPAC
US Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks to the media following a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, US, July 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), took to X/Twitter on Monday to call on all Democrats to stop accepting political donations from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the influential pro‑Israel lobbying entity.
In his tweet, Sanders wrote that AIPAC has aided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in waging an “illegal and immoral war being waged against the Palestinian people.” Sanders continued, claiming that “NO Democrat should accept money from AIPAC” while asserting that the organization helped “deliver the presidency to Donald Trump.”
Sanders’s post came in response to comments by former Obama administration foreign policy advisor Ben Rhodes, in which Rhodes urged Democrats to reject all future donations from AIPAC. Rhodes argued that AIPAC has influenced Democrats to take immoral stances on the Israel-Palestine conflict.
“AIPAC is part of the constellation of forces that has delivered this country into the hands of Donald Trump and Stephen Miller, and you cannot give them a carve out,” Rhodes said on an episode of the podcast Pod Save the World. “We need to have this fight as a party, because these are the wrong people to have under your tent.”
Tommy Vietor, another former Obama administration official and podcast co-host, agreed, accusing AIPAC of “funneling money to front organizations that primary progressive Democrats.”
AIPAC, the foremost pro-Israel lobbying firm in the US, has historically backed pro-Israel candidates from both parties. The organization does not specifically lobby against progressive candidates. AIPAC has aided the campaigns of pro-Israel progressives such as Ritchie Torres.
Sanders has long held an acrimonious relationship with AIPAC. In November 2023, he repudiated the group for supposedly having”supported dozens of GOP extremists who are undermining our democracy,” and urged his fellow Democrats to stand together in the fight for a world of peace, economic and social justice and climate sanity.”
Rhodes, a former deputy national security adviser under President Obama, has emerged as a vocal critic of Israeli policy, particularly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His skepticism is rooted in years of diplomatic frustration during the Obama administration, especially surrounding failed peace negotiations and Israel’s settlement expansions in the West Bank. Rhodes has often framed Israel’s hardline stance as a major obstacle to a two-state solution, and he has been critical of what he sees as unconditional U.S. support that enables right-wing Israeli policies. His stance reflects a broader shift among some American progressives who advocate for a more balanced U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sanders has long been a staunch critic of the Jewish state. Sanders has repeatedly accused Israel of committing “collective punishment” and “apartheid” against the Palestinian people. Although the senator initially condemned the Oct. 7 slaughters of roughly 1200 people throughout southern Israel by Hamas, he subsequently pushed for a “ceasefire” between the Jewish state and the terrorist group. Sanders also spearheaded an unsuccessful campaign to implement a partial arms embargo on Israel in 2024.
In the 20 months following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel, relations between the Democratic party and the Jewish state have deteriorated. Democratic lawmakers have grown more vocally critical of Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, sometimes arguing that the Jewish state has recklessly endangered lives of Palestinian civilians. Moreover, polls indicate that Democratic voters have largely turned against Israel, intensifying pressure on liberal lawmakers to shift their tone regarding the war in Gaza.
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Iranian National Charged in Plot to Subvert US Sanctions Against Islamic Republic
Iranians participating in a memorial ceremony for IRGC commanders and nuclear scientists in downtown Tehran, Iran, on July 2, 2025. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl via Reuters Connect.
Federal law enforcement officials have arrested an Iranian national after uncovering his alleged conspiracy to export US technology to Tehran in violation of a slew of economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic, the US Department of Justice announced on Friday.
For May 2018 to July 2025, Bahram Mohammad Ostovari, 66, allegedly amassed “railway signaling and telecommunications systems” for transport to the Iranian government by using “two front companies” located in the United Arab Emirates. After filing fake orders for them with US vendors at Ostovari’s direction, the companies shipped the materials — which included “sophisticated computer processors” — to Tehran, having duped the US businesses into believing that they “were the end users.”
The Justice Department continued, “After he became a lawful permanent resident of the United States in May 2020, Ostovari continued to export, sell, and supply electronics and electrical components to [his company] in Iran,” noting that the technology became components of infrastructure projects commissioned by the Islamic Republic.
Ostovari has been charged with four criminal counts for allegedly violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations (ITSR), under which conducting business with Iran is proscribed due to the country’s human rights abuses, material support for terrorism, and efforts to build a larger-scale nuclear program in violation of international non-proliferation obligations. Each count carries a 20-year maximum sentence in federal prison.
Ostovari is one of several Iranian nationals to become the subject of criminal proceedings involving crimes against the US this year.
In April, a resident of Great Falls, Virginia — Abouzar Rahmati, 42 — pleaded guilty to collecting intelligence on US infrastructure and providing it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.
“From at least December 2017 through June 2024, Rahmati worked with Iranian government officials and intelligence operatives to act on their behalf in the United States, including by meeting with Iranian intelligence officers and government officials using a cover story to hide his conduct,” the Justice Department said at the time, noting that Rahmati even infiltrated a contractor for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that possesses “sensitive non-public information about the US aviation sector.”
Throughout the duration of his cover, Rahmati amassed “open-source and non-public materials about the US solar energy industry,” which he delivered to “Iranian intelligence officers.”
The government found that the operation began in August 2017, after Rahmati “offered his services” to a high-ranking Iranian government official who had once been employed by the country’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, according to the Justice Department. Months later, he traveled to Iran, where Iranian agents assigned to him the espionage activity to which he pleaded guilty to perpetrating.
“Rahmati sent additional material relating to solar energy, solar panels, the FAA, US airports, and US air traffic control towers to his brother, who lived in Iran, so that he would provide those files to Iranian intelligence on Rahmati’s behalf,” the Justice Department continued. Rahmati also, it said, delivered 172 gigabytes worth of information related to the National Aerospace System (NAS) — which monitors US airspace, ensuring its safety for aircraft — and NAS Airport Surveillance to Iran during a trip he took there.
Rahmati faces up to 10 years in prison. He will be sentenced in August.
In November, three Iranian intelligence assets were charged with contriving a conspiracy to assassinate critics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as then US President-elect Donald Trump.
According to the Justice Department, Farhad Shakeri, 51; Carlisle Rivera, 49; and Jonathan Loadholt, 36, acted at the direction of and with help from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an internationally designated terrorist organization, to plot to murder a US citizen of Iranian origin in New York. Shakeri, who remains at large and is believed to reside in Iran, was allegedly the principal agent who managed the two other men, both residents of New York City who appeared in court.
Their broader purpose, prosecutors said, was to target nationals of the United States and its allies for attacks, including “assaults, kidnapping, and murder, both to repress and silence critical dissidents” and to exact revenge for the 2020 killing of then-IRGC Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Iraq. Trump was president of the US at the time of the operation.
All three men are now charged with murder-for-hire, conspiracy, and money laundering. Shakeri faces additional charges, including violating sanctions against Iran, providing support to a terrorist organization, and conspiring to violate the International Emergency Powers Act, offenses for which he could serve up to six decades in federal prison.
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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