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Did Hamas’ Innovation — or Israel’s Complacency — Lead to October 7 Massacre?
Hamas terrorists kidnapping Israeli women at the Nahal Oz base near the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023. Photo: Screenshot
Israel possesses one of the world’s most sophisticated intelligence capabilities with which to obtain and provide information on its adversaries’ capabilities, intentions and actions. That intelligence serves to guide Israel’s policymakers in deciding on courses of action. Yet on October 7, Hamas was able to carry out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil with devastating consequences.
What core intelligence challenges did Israel fail to meet in the run-up to this event?
Critically, Israeli intelligence failed to grasp the disruptive changes in Hamas’ approach to Israel — a failure that was facilitated by a related failure of organizational implementation. Explicit advance knowledge of a Hamas attack at the unit level of the intelligence apparatus was not considered valuable, so it was not translated into a competitive advantage. Drawing on public information distilled through Yakov Ben-Haim’s info-gap theory, this article analyzes these two intelligence challenges related to the October 7 attack. It also discusses a means of managing uncertainty that seeks to reduce the impact of surprises on policy outcomes.
Some elements of human affairs are fundamentally unknowable because of the vast uncertainty inherent in human behavior. Scholars of economics apply the concept of Knightian uncertainty, which addresses the difficulty of forecasting in view of the unknowability of all possible events and market innovations. But when it comes to intelligence, predictive errors can also arise from deception and denial.
If a change in the adversary’s camp is truly innovative, there is no prior experience from which probabilities can be deduced. Shackle-Popper indeterminism (SPI) is a concept in which human behavior depends on what we know. When we do not have a prior incident from which to learn and draw conclusions, undetermined elements interfere with our attempts to predict future human behavior. Since policymakers must make critical decisions in contexts that are both uncertain and limited in resources and time, intelligence is needed to reduce the uncertainty as much as possible. The question thus arises: Did Israeli intelligence fail in its core task to reduce uncertainty to the greatest extent possible in the run-up to October 7, or did we witness a disruptive terrorist “innovation” by Hamas that was almost impossible to predict?
This analysis draws on info-gap theory, which originally comes from engineering design and safety analysis. An info-gap is not simply a gap in one’s knowledge or information. It is “a gap with significant consequences for the outcome of a decision.” It describes “the disparity between what is known and what needs to be known in order to reliably and responsibly make a decision.”
Accordingly, the intelligence services’ task of reducing uncertainty has two meanings. The first is to reduce uncertainty (ignorance, ambiguity, and the potential for surprise) by increasing knowledge and understanding of situations or actors. This is the traditional understanding of intelligence. The second is to reduce vulnerability to uncertainty by managing the negative consequences of ignorance, ambiguity, or surprise on the outcome of a policy or decision.
Info-gap theory argues that uncertainty is not negative per se as long as the adverse consequences of a defined policy can be reduced. It proposes the concept of robust satisficing — a term that combines the words “satisfy” and “suffice” — which aims to enhance the robustness of policies against info-gaps with significant consequences. In such a scenario, policymakers define the minimum requirements necessary to achieve a defined goal while intelligence is tasked with constantly evaluating this policy “in terms of how large an info-gap it can tolerate and still achieve the policymaker’s stated goals.” Ideally, intelligence regularly assesses the degree to which current data, knowledge, and understanding can err or change such that a policy will continue to meet the policymaker’s defined outcome requirements. A policy is considered robust when only large surprises would have negative consequences. It has low robustness when even minor surprises affect the outcome negatively.
Concerning Hamas, Israeli policymakers’ minimum outcome requirement would have been to contain the terrorist organization in Gaza and avoid direct combat friction to the greatest extent possible to protect Israel from harm. To achieve this, Israel pursued a policy of maintaining technological and military superiority vis-à-vis Gaza concurrently with bribing Hamas to keep it “weakened and deterred.” According to the principle of robust satisficing, intelligence should have evaluated these policies against info-gaps. How much could Israel err in its understanding of Hamas’ behavior, capabilities and intentions? To what extent would Israel’s policy of technological and military superiority paired with bribing Hamas still ensure the minimum outcome requirement of containing Hamas in Gaza?
Since leaving Gaza in 2005, Israel was largely successful in mitigating the negative impact of repeated rounds of violence and rocket attacks by using Iron Dome and conducting limited military operations. We also now know that Hamas actively deceived Israel by exhibiting restraint over the years as a pretense that it was satisfied with the status quo. Thus, based on prior experience and knowledge, the policy of technological and military superiority plus bribery was considered robust. This presumably led Israeli decision-makers to tolerate info-gaps concerning unusual Hamas behavior.
Recurring conflict patterns and Hamas deception over the years reinforced a common and, in retrospect, wrong understanding by Israel’s intelligence and policymaking echelons that the country’s policies to control Gaza were sound. This ultimately made them blind to the disruptive change in Hamas’ intentions and approach that a practice of robust satisficing might have helped to counteract. As a consequence, this blindness appears to have caused them to lower the level of what needed to be known to ensure the minimum outcome requirement of containing Hamas in Gaza.
Paradoxically, when you lower the level of what needs to be known, the commitment to a policy increases and the tolerance for info-gaps grows. In an illustration of this tendency, Israeli policymakers decided to shift resources away from the Hamas problem to other areas. This included, for example, reducing the military presence at the Gaza border and halting the practice of eavesdropping on hand-held radios of Hamas militants, which was considered a waste of time. Both decisions would prove to have devastating consequences on October 7.
Israel’s “blinded” understanding of Hamas rendered new intelligence on unusual activities at the Gaza border more “tolerable,” which in turn facilitated the second failure in the run-up to October 7. Israeli intelligence failed to organizationally implement new knowledge because that knowledge was not considered sufficiently valuable to be deemed worthy of translation into a competitive advantage. Reports show that at the unit level of the Southern Command of 8200, explicit information of a pending Hamas attack existed based on the previously obtained “Jericho Walls” operation plan and mounting evidence of unusual events in Gaza. However, not only was this information dismissed “top-down” by the responsible superiors, but the highly sophisticated technological tools of Israeli intelligence failed to identify the existing signs as strong.
To return to the two meanings of reducing uncertainty: The bottom-up elements of Israeli intelligence did indeed work to reduce uncertainty and ambiguity concerning a pending attack, as described by the term’s first meaning. Tragically, they were not successful at implementing this information beyond their unit for further use. That is because Israeli intelligence failed to evaluate and reduce the negative consequences of a potential surprise on policy outcomes, which is the second meaning of reducing vulnerability to uncertainty.
Some form of organizational “top-down” barriers, facilitated by a “blinded” understanding of the situation, impeded a process of robustly satisficing the existing info-gap about unusual Hamas behavior. Again, the question is whether this organizational tolerance for non-implementation of new information for further use was facilitated because policymakers and top security officials lowered the requirements of what needed to be known to ensure the minimum outcome requirement concerning Hamas in the first place.
The Israeli security establishment and policymakers came to consider their policies of technological and military superiority vis-à-vis Gaza plus bribery of Hamas as very strong, based on prior experience and understanding. This led them to tolerate larger and larger info-gaps and eventually made them blind to the disruptive change in Hamas’s intentions and capabilities. October 7 thus arrived as a catastrophic surprise — a terrorist “innovation” that disrupted existing policies.
The top-down tolerance for info-gaps concerning Hamas seemed to contribute to the second intelligence failure of organizational implementation, by which explicit and mounting knowledge about a pending Hamas attack was not acted upon. As discussed, the practice of robustly satisficing info-gaps can help manage uncertainty and surprise, including deception by adversaries, to ensure minimum policy outcomes. A robustness question in the run-up to October 7 could have been, “How much could our knowledge and understanding about our technological superiority over Gaza and Hamas’s capabilities err without altering the final assessment of the unusually aggressive military activities at the Gaza border and, more strikingly, the obtained ‘Jericho Walls’ plan?” Had the relevant policymakers and intelligence echelons regularly challenged their understanding of existing policies, the evidence of unusual Hamas activities might have been interpreted quite differently. An attack could have been identified as not only possible but even plausible.
Stefanie Kirchweger…Stefanie Kirchweger is a PhD student at the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, in a cotutelle agreement with the Department of Political Science at the University of Innsbruck, Austria. Her research is focused on international intelligence relations and foreign policy. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Argentine Jews Express Outrage After Venezuela’s Maduro Blasts Argentina Government as ‘Nazi and Zionist’
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a march amid the disputed presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Maxwell Briceno
The Jewish community in Argentina lambasted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro this week after he described Argentina’s government as “Nazi and Zionist” while addressing on ongoing dispute between the two countries over the arrest of an Argentine military officer in Venezuela.
“A terrorist like this famous Argentine has been captured. The Nazi and Zionist government of Argentina wants us to award him a decoration,” Maduro said during an event on Wednesday in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
Maduro was addressing the situation of Nahuel Gallo, a corporal in Argentina’s Gendarmería security force who was arrested in Venezuela last month and charged with terrorism. The socialist Venezuelan government accused Gallo of “being part of a group of people who tried to commit destabilizing and terrorist acts [in Venezuela] with the support of international far-right groups.”
Argentina is currently governed by the right-wing administration of President Javier Milei, whose security minister, Patricia Bullrich, described the charges as “another lie” by Venezuela’s government and said that Gallo should be returned to Argentina “immediately.”
Gallo’s relatives said that he had traveled to Venezuela to visit his wife, who is Venezuelan and was reportedly in the country to spend time with her mother.
Venezuela broke diplomatic relations with Argentina in August after Milei and several other Latin American leaders refused to recognize Maduro’s reelection in July. While Argentina’s diplomats were expelled, some Venezuelan opposition activists, who had sought refuge at the ambassador’s residence to avoid arrest, have since then remained in the building, having been denied safe passage in Venezuela and seeking political asylum in Argentina.
On Monday, Maduro accused Gallo of being part of a plot to assassinate his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. The next day, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said that Gallo is being held “hostage” by Maduro’s government.
Against this backdrop, Argentina’s Jewish umbrella organization, the Delegation of Argentine Israelite Associations (DAIA), on Thursday released a statement slamming Maduro for using the term “Nazi and Zionist” to describe their government.
“In the context of the conflict with Argentina over the gendarme Nahuel Gallo detained in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro called the government of our country ‘Nazi and Zionist.’ The phrase not only trivializes the tragedy of the Holocaust, diminishing its importance and impact, but also refers to Zionism as a disqualifying insult, even though it represents the legitimate existence of the State of Israel,” the DAIA said in its statement.
“At the same time,” the group continued, “it reveals the violent characteristics of the dictatorial regime that has subjected the Venezuelan people to slavery for years. It does so by exercising terror and oppression on those who fight to reestablish the path of democracy. DAIA condemns Maduro’s violent expressions and expresses its support for those who seek to live in a free and pluralistic society in which human rights are respected.”
Maduro has regularly used antisemitic rhetoric during his time in power in Venezuela. In August, for example, he blamed “international Zionism” for the protests against his reign following the country’s July 28 elections after which he claimed victory despite widespread suspicions of foul play.
The “extremist right,” referring to his opposition, “is supported by international Zionism,” Maduro claimed in an address at the time. “All the communication power of Zionism, who controls all social networks, the satellites, and all the power behind this coup d’état.”
Deborah Lipstadt, the US special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, called Maduro’s claims “absurd,” “antisemitic,” and “unacceptable.”
Maduro has been in power since 2013 and has overseen a dramatic economic decline in Venezuela. Redirecting personal failures as the fault of Jews, or, in this case, “international Zionism,” has long been a tactic of antisemites looking for a scapegoat.
Protests and unrest erupted in Venezuela after the presidential election in July, when Maduro’s government was accused by his political opposition, outside observers, and foreign governments of committing fraud to secure a victory.
Nonetheless, Maduro on Friday began his third term as Venezuela’s president, despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referring to his “illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela” as a “desperate attempt” to seize power.
“The Venezuelan people and world know the truth — Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency,” Blinken said in a statement. “The United States rejects the National Electoral Council’s fraudulent announcement that Maduro won the presidential election and does not recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela.”
Edmundo González Urrutia should have been sworn in as the Venezuelan president, according to the US State Department.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar agreed, posting on X/Twitter that the Jewish state “expresses concern over the political persecution and arbitrary arrests by the regime and joins the call of many in the international community to restore freedom and democracy in Venezuela.”
“Today, Jan. 10, Edmundo González Urrutia, the elected president of Venezuela, who won the presidential elections by a significant majority, was supposed to be inaugurated,” Sa’ar added. “However, the election results are not being respected, and his inauguration is not taking place. The ruler, Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Iran, must honor the will of the people in his country.”
In Argentina, meanwhile, Milei has expressed admiration for Judaism and support for Israel. He appointed Rabbi Axel Wahnish, who has served as his spiritual advisor for the last two years, as Argentina’s ambassador to Israel and has studied Torah and other Jewish texts. The Catholic Milei has previously said that were it not for the duties of his office, which require him to work on the Sabbath and on Jewish holidays, he would convert to Judaism.
Argentina has become a key player in organizing efforts to combat antisemitism in recent months. In July, for example, more than 30 countries led by the United States adopted “global guidelines for countering antisemitism” during a gathering of special envoys and other representatives from around the globe in Argentina.
The gathering came one day before Argentina’s Jewish community commemorated the 30th anniversary of the 1994 targeted bombing of the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Milei promised to right decades of inaction and inconsistencies in the investigations into the attack.
In April, Argentina’s top criminal court blamed Iran for the attack, saying it was carried out by Hezbollah terrorists responding to “a political and strategic design” by Iran.
Iran is the chief international sponsor of Hamas, providing the terror group with weapons, funding, and training.
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Tlaib Sports Palestinian Keffiyeh at Carter Funeral, Thanks Late President for ‘Speaking Out Against Apartheid’
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) addresses attendees as she takes part in a protest calling for a ceasefire in Gaza outside the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, US, Oct. 18, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Leah Millis
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), one of the most strident opponents of Israel in Congress, wore a Palestinian keffiyeh to the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter, commemorating the late American leader’s advocacy against so-called “apartheid” in the Jewish state.
“Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace,” Tlaib posted on X/Twitter, along with a picture of her keffyeh.
Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace. pic.twitter.com/Vf0XLN2BtJ
— Rashida Tlaib (@RashidaTlaib) January 9, 2025
The keffiyeh, a traditional Arab headscarf, has become known as a symbol of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and opposition to Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023.
High-profile politicians, including all five living US presidents, attended Carter’s funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC on Thursday. The former president died on Dec. 29, 2024 at 100 years old due to heart failure.
Over the past couple of decades, Carter’s public commentary on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ruffled feathers among supporters of the Jewish state. In 2006, Carter raised eyebrows after publishing a book titled, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, which condemned Israel for constructing settlements in the West Bank and accused the Jewish state of constructing a racially-discriminatory political regime.
In 2009, Carter traveled to the Middle East and held meetings with leaders of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Critics noted that he did not criticize Hamas leadership during his meeting and praised the terrorists as being “frank and honest.”
In 2015, Carter further incensed proponents of the Jewish state when he seemingly defended senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal and argued that the terrorist group was not an obstacle to peace in the region.
“I don’t believe that [Mashal’s] a terrorist. He’s strongly in favor of the peace process,” Carter said at the time.
“I don’t see that deep commitment on the part of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to make concessions which [former Prime Minister] Menachem Begin did to find peace with his potential enemies,” Carter continued.
Since entering Congress, Tlaib has positioned herself as one of the most vocal anti-Israel critics in US politics. Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman to serve in the House of Representatives, has repeatedly used her platform to lodge condemnations against Israel.
The congresswoman has accused Israel of committing “apartheid” against Palestinians. In the year following Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, Tlaib has smeared the Jewish state’s defensive military operations as a “genocide,” calling on US President Joe Biden to force a “ceasefire” between Israel and the terrorist group and implement an “arms embargo” against the Jewish state.
On Thursday, Tlaib slammed the House for passing a bill which would sanction members of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over its issuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant
“What’s their top priority the first week of the new Congress? Lowering costs? Addressing the housing crisis? No, it’s sanctioning the International Criminal Court to protect genocidal maniac Netanyahu so he can continue the genocide in Gaza,” Tlaib wrote on social media.
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Sydney Synagogue Daubed in Antisemitic Graffiti in Latest Attack on Australian Jews
Southern Sydney Synagogue in the suburb of Allawah, Australia, was vandalized with antisemitic graffiti on Jan. 10, 2024. Photo: Screenshot
A synagogue in Sydney was daubed in antisemitic graffiti on Friday, police said, the latest in a spate of incidents targeting Jews in Australia.
Police will deploy a special task force to investigate the attack on the Southern Sydney Synagogue in the suburb of Allawah that happened in the early hours of Friday morning, New South Wales state Police Assistant Commissioner Peter McKenna told a news conference.
“The people who do the sort of thing should realize we will be out in force to look for them; we will catch them and prosecute them,” he said.
Television footage showed multiple swastikas painted on the building, along with a message reading “Hitler on top.”
“[There is] no place in Australia, our tolerant multicultural community, for this sort of criminal activity,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told a news conference.
The incident is the latest in a series of antisemitic incidents in Australia in the last year, including multiple incidents of graffiti on buildings and cars in Sydney, as well as arson attack on a synagogue in Melbourne that police have ruled as terrorism.
Australia has seen an increase in antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023 and Israel launched its war against the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza. Some Jewish organizations have said the government has not taken sufficient action in response.
The country launched a task force last month following the Melbourne synagogue blaze, focusing on threats, violence, and hatred towards the Australian Jewish community.
Australia’s ice hockey federation said on Tuesday it had cancelled a planned international qualifying tournament due to safety concerns, with local media reporting the decision was linked to the participation of the Israeli national team.
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