The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who masterminded the Palestinian terror group’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel, has sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East, prompting concerns about retaliation and the safety of the 101 hostages still being held captive in Gaza, a former Israeli intelligence official told The Algemeiner on Thursday.

Sinwar was killed in an intense but routine firefight in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on Wednesday night, according to the Israeli military. The force that eliminated Sinwar, which was a cadet squad that was not targeting the Hamas chief, first encountered resistance when tank shells were fired at a building where suspicious figures had been observed. Despite initial pushback, including grenade attacks from terrorists inside, the Israeli forces persisted, using drones to track the movements of fleeing combatants. After further shelling, one masked figure was located by a drone, and additional fire was directed at his position. A video later released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shows the masked figure, later identified as Sinwar, throwing a stick at the drone but missing.

It wasn’t until the following morning that Israeli forces discovered that the slain terrorist bore a striking resemblance to Sinwar. On his body, soldiers found several personal items, including a fake passport, Mentos, money, a weapon, a lighter, and an ID belonging to a United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) employee.

Sinwar’s death comes as negotiations over a hostage release deal have stalled, in part over the deceased terror chief’s maximalist position demanding the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire, with the New York Times reporting last week that Sinwar’s “hardened” attitude had left US mediators to speculate that “Hamas has no intention of reaching a deal with Israel.” Israel, for its part, has consistently rejected any proposal that would allow Hamas to maintain control over the Gaza Strip or rebuild its military capabilities.

Israeli intelligence expert and former senior official on Arab affairs, Avi Melamed, said that the coming days will be crucial in determining the ramifications of Sinwar’s death with regard to the hostages kidnapped last Oct. 7. “Some of the people who are holding some of the hostages may take revenge and kill [them],” he warned.

On the other hand, Melamed said, Sinwar’s elimination might create new opportunities for negotiations, particularly if the Hamas leadership becomes destabilized, suggesting that “the path may now be open for some sort of arrangements or agreements” that could lead to the release of hostages.

But such an outcome is also fraught with challenges, because the hostages are estimated to be scattered across various locations in Gaza, he said, with some believed to be held by civilians rather than Hamas militants. “Even Hamas leadership, if they want to move forward, may have difficulties locating those who hold the hostages,” Melamed explained.

Israeli efforts to secure the release of hostages have been complicated by Hamas’s decentralized command structure, and the death of Sinwar introduces new uncertainty about who will succeed him as leader. While his brother, Mohammad Sinwar, is seen as a potential successor, there are conflicting reports about whether he is even alive, with some Arabic language reports saying that he was killed in the same strike that killed his brother.

Even though Mohammad Sinwar, as leader of the al-Qassam Brigades, holds significant sway within Hamas, he lacks the same level of authority, strategic insight, and influence as his brother. Yahya, as both the political and military leader in Gaza, had consolidated power across multiple facets of Hamas operations, making him a central figure both within the group’s leadership — including those in exile in Qatar — and in external negotiations. Mohammad, while influential within the military wing, does not possess Yahya’s extensive network or political clout, which could lead to internal challenges or a weakened leadership structure moving forward.

But Mohammad, Melamed stressed, is “no less brutal and psychopathic than his brother.”

Az al-Din Haddad, the commander of Hamas’s Gaza Brigade, stands as one of the few remaining high-ranking leaders within the al-Qassam Brigades, and could become a candidate to succeed Sinwar. Known for his resilience and charm, Haddad has survived multiple Israeli assassination attempts, a fact that has bolstered his standing within the organization. If Haddad were to succeed Sinwar, it would mark a shift in leadership.

Beyond the immediate hostage crisis, Sinwar’s killing also raises larger questions about broader strategic calculus, particularly regarding Iran, which backs Hamas.

“There is a connection between these things,” Melamed remarked. “One thought is this might incentivize Israel to attack Iran, while another says the total opposite, that now Israel will hold off on its plans to attack.”

According to Melamed, Israel may opt to hold off on a strike in Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s recent ballistic missile attack against the Jewish state to see whether Palestinians holding hostages will respond to the Israeli Prime Minister’s appeal for their release, which was issued shortly after the announcement of Sinwar’s death. Iranian state media are framing Sinwar’s death as an act of “martyrdom,” lauding the Hamas leader for “dying in combat” against Israel in Gaza.

Meanwhile Hamas-affiliated outlets have denied his death. The Gaza Now outlet posted a warning to its followers, stating, “Warning, the reports about the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar are completely false, and the occupation’s publication and circulation of this news is an attempt to collect intelligence information, as it did previously with leader Muhammad al-Deif. Please be careful.”

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