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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel
Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar
One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.
One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.
Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.
While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.
This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.
In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.
On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.
A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.
Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.
However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.
This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.
By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.
Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Documentary on Torn Down Hostage Posters to Open in Select NY, LA Theaters in September
Posters highlighting the plight of Israeli hostages abducted by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, are seen being torn down in New York. Photo: Provided
A documentary screening in select theaters in September focuses on the controversy surrounding the torn down posters that raise awareness about the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas terrorists after their attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
“TORN: The Israel-Palestine Poster War,” directed and produced by award-winning filmmaker and New Yorker Nim Shapira, chronicles the start of the now iconic “KIDNAPPED” poster campaign after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and how it turned into a point of conflict in New York City, leading to sometimes violent street confrontations between pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian activists, some of the latter of whom torn down the posters across Manhattan. The 75-minute documentary “explores grief, identity, and the limits of empathy in today’s fractured public discourse,” according to a description of the film shared with The Algemeiner.
The documentary features interviews with 10 New Yorkers, including family members of hostages, the creators of the “KIDNAPPED” poster campaign, students, activists, a free speech expert, and a rabbi. “My hope – then and now – was that in New York, where we don’t have rockets or missiles flying overhead, we might be able to sit and talk. That we could create space for conversation, even disagreement, without violence,” said Shapira in a released statement. “TORN” is his first feature-length documentary.
“TORN’ began as an attempt to capture a moment when my home — New York City, where I’ve lived for the past 12 years – was being pulled apart,” the filmmaker added. “Not just by headlines, but by the emotional aftershocks of a war taking place thousands of miles away … What began as an act of solidarity [with the hostages] quickly spiraled into something far more layered: a symbolic ‘paper war’ that unfolded on the walls of New York.”
“The simple act of putting up or tearing down a poster became a political event, sparking confrontations across college campuses, neighborhoods, and social media,” Shapira noted. “Suddenly, the war in Gaza wasn’t distant – it was here, reflected on our lampposts, our subway stations, and in the heated arguments between strangers … In an era defined by polarization, ‘TORN’ is both a mirror and a spark: a reflection of how far we’ve drifted apart, and an invitation to sit, reflect, and speak-even across disagreement.”
The film will have its Oscar-qualifying theatrical run in select venues on Sept. 5. It will screen in additional cities throughout September and October, and a digital release is expected in December. More than 50 pre-release screenings are already scheduled across the US and Canada, including New York, Boston, Chicago, Toronto, San Francisco, and Miami.
“TORN” is being released by the indie label Hemdale Films, best known for the Oscar-winning classics “Platoon” and “The Last Emperor.” Following a decades-long hiatus, Hemdale relaunched under Hannover House, Inc. and “TORN” is its first release since the relaunch.
“We were waiting for the right film to reintroduce Hemdale,” said Eric Parkinson, CEO of Hannover House. “‘TORN’ is not only timely and awards-worthy — it’s the kind of bold, conversation-starting work that defines our legacy.”
Watch the trailer for “TORN: The Israel-Palestine Poster War” below.
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US Cannot ‘Compel’ Israel to Do Anything, US Special Envoy Says in Lebanon
US Ambassador to Turkey and US special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack speaks after meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in Beirut, Lebanon July 21, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Washington cannot “compel” Israel to do anything, US special envoy Thomas Barrack said in Beirut on Monday, in response to a reporter’s question about Lebanese demands that the US guarantees a halt to Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory.
The US last month proposed a roadmap to Lebanon‘s top officials to fully disarm Hezbollah within four months, in exchange for a halt to Israeli strikes and a withdrawal of Israeli troops still occupying positions in southern Lebanon.
Lebanon has asked Washington to act as a security guarantor to ensure that Israel will pull out its troops in full and halt targeting operations against members of Hezbollah, if the Iran-backed terrorist group begins handing in weapons.
Asked about those guarantees, Barrack told reporters after a meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam that the US “has no business in trying to compel Israel to do anything.”
He also told reporters that the US was not forcing Lebanon to strip Hezbollah of its arms, or considering sanctions against Lebanese officials if Hezbollah is not disarmed.
“There’s no consequence, there’s no threat, there’s no whip,” Barrack said.
Barrack, a longtime adviser to US President Donald Trump, also serves as US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria.
He is making his third trip to Lebanon in just over a month to discuss the US roadmap, which covers disarmament of non-state armed groups, long-awaited economic reforms and better ties with Lebanon‘s neighbor Syria.
Israel and Hezbollah fought a months-long war last year that ended with a US-brokered truce calling for both sides to halt fighting, for Israel to withdraw troops, and for Lebanon to be free of all non-state arms, starting with the southern region closest to the Israeli border.
While Hezbollah has handed in some weapons from depots in the country’s south to the Lebanese army, Israel says the group is violating the ceasefire by attempting to re-establish itself.
Lebanon and Hezbollah say Israel has breached the truce by continuing to occupy at least five vantage points in a strip of the Lebanese border, and carrying out strikes on what Israel says are Hezbollah members and arms depots.
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Israeli Military Attacks Houthi Targets in Yemen’s Hodeidah Port
A bridge crane damaged by Israeli air strikes is pictured in the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, Yemen, July 31, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
The Israeli military attacked Houthi targets in Yemen’s Hodeidah port on Monday in its latest operation against the Iran-backed terrorist group, which has been striking ships bound for Israel and launching missiles against it.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the army was “forcefully countering any attempt to restore the terror infrastructure previously attacked.”
The Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said on Monday that a series of attacks on the port was under way, without providing any details.
The Israeli military said in a statement that the port it attacked had been used “among other things, to transfer weapons from the Iranian regime, which are then used by the Houthi to execute terrorist attacks against the State of Israel and its allies.”
Since Israel’s war in Gaza against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas began in October 2023, the Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking vessels in the Red Sea in what they say are acts of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Israel has responded by launching attacks on Houthis, who control the most populous parts of Yemen, including the vital Hodeidah port.
“As I have made clear – Yemen’s fate is the same as Tehran’s. The Houthis will pay a heavy price for launching missiles toward the State of Israel,” Katz said.
The Houthis’ military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said on Monday that the group attacked several targets in Israel with drones, which was in response to Israel’s recent attack on Hodeidah port and the continued military campaign against Gaza.
Earlier in July, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on the Greek ship Eternity C that maritime officials say killed four of the 25 people aboard.
In May, the United States announced a surprise deal with the Houthis where it agreed to stop a bombing campaign against them in return for an end to shipping attacks, though the Houthis said the deal did not include sparing Israel.
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