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Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel

Smoke billows after an Israeli Air Force air strike in southern Lebanon village, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Jim Urquhar

One key aspect of the Israeli gamble on a ceasefire arrangement with Hezbollah on the northern front seems to be a set of significant imminent improvements of its air defense systems. The arrival of the Iron Beam laser system, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems together with Elbit, marks a revolutionary advancement in Israel’s defensive arsenal. Integrated directly into the existing Iron Dome batteries, which have been operational since 2011, the Iron Beam uses a 100-kilowatt laser to intercept rockets, mortar shells, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and missiles — at the speed of light.

One of the most compelling advantages of the Iron Beam is its cost-effectiveness. Each laser shot costs only a few dollars — the price of the electricity required — compared to approximately $50,000 for each Tamir interceptor missile used by the Iron Dome. This economic efficiency disrupts the financial advantage previously held by terrorists firing rockets and UAVs. The Iron Beam not only reduces operational costs but also does not require ammunition replenishment, ensuring continuous protection.

Furthermore, the laser system offers rapid response capabilities, striking targets within seconds – much faster than kinetic interceptors. If it can be established that the Iron Beam destroys incoming threats before they cross into Israeli air space, this could enable the Israeli Air Force and IDF Home Front Command to decrease the number of disruptive rocket alerts in the future.

While the Iron Beam has a range of about eight to ten kilometers and can engage only one threat at a time, it complements the Iron Dome, which can intercept multiple threats simultaneously over longer distances. The combination of these systems enhances Israel’s layered defense strategy.

This advancement has opened the door for future developments, including mobile ground-based lasers to protect maneuvering military units and airborne systems capable of intercepting threats above cloud cover over enemy territory. An aerial laser system being developed by Elbit has already demonstrated success. In 2021, this system downed UAVs while flying at an altitude of 3,000 feet. If development goes according to plan, the airborne laser is expected to have an interception range of approximately 20 kilometers.

In addition to the Iron Beam, the Israel Defense Forces has been testing radar-guided Vulcan cannons. The M61 Vulcan cannon, capable of firing around 6,000 rounds per minute and mounted on armored personnel carriers, aims to counter the growing threat of UAVs. Hezbollah has been leveraging its proximity to Israel to exploit detection loopholes, flying UAVs at low altitudes from southern Lebanese valleys to evade existing interception systems like the Iron Dome. The Vulcan cannons are expected to bolster Israel’s short-range air defense, protecting sensitive locations and filling gaps in current capabilities.

On the offensive front, Israel is determined to capitalize on its recent achievements against Hezbollah by preserving the new security reality in northern Israel. This involves an active policy of precise airstrikes and targeted ground operations designed to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing a foothold in southern Lebanon, including preventing Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons from trying to rebuild invasion bases in southern Lebanese Shiite villages and replenishing its rocket arsenal. By continuously disrupting Iranian supply routes to Hezbollah — be they land corridors, air smuggling operations, or maritime channels from Syria and Lebanese ports—Israel aims to hinder Hezbollah’s ability to rebuild its arsenal and terror infrastructure.

A critical aspect of this strategy is American recognition of Israel’s right to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which effectively gives the resolution “teeth” for the first time. Recognizing that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been totally unable to implement the resolution, Israel is committed to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence if necessary — and reserve its right to operational freedom.

Adapting tactics from other arenas, the IDF would aim, under this scenario, to “mow the lawn” — meaning periodic, intelligence-driven operations to disrupt hostile activities and prevent force build-up.

However, this proactive stance, while welcome, presents a paradox. While Israel’s enforcement actions would be designed to prevent long-term security threats from reappearing, they may also lead Hezbollah to retaliate, potentially leading to escalation and renewed rocket fire in the north within a short time. Hezbollah still retains residual firepower capabilities, despite an assessment that more than 80% of its arsenal has been destroyed. Assertive future Israeli operations could trigger attacks on northern Israeli communities.

This conundrum necessitates careful consideration by the Israeli cabinet and IDF leadership. Should future critical action to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament instigate the very hostilities it aims to avoid, it will likely be necessary to return to higher intensity conflict. However, this is not an inevitable scenario in the near term.

By decisively weakening Hezbollah’s capabilities and preventing its return to southern Lebanon, Israel can reshape the security landscape in its favor. This will require not only military action but also the leveraging of technological defensive advancements to maintain a strategic edge. The successful integration of systems like the Iron Beam and Vulcan cannons represents a significant step toward neutralizing emerging threats such as UAVs, which Hezbollah employed over the course of the past year to target sensitive locations in attacks that led to painful casualties.

Israel’s strategic “bet” on establishing a new reality in Lebanon will likely evolve into a complex and multifaceted endeavor. By enhancing its defensive capabilities with cutting-edge technologies, and by adopting proactive offensive measures to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence, Israel aims to secure its northern border and protect its citizens. Yet this strategy must navigate the paradox of enforcement potentially leading to escalation. Future attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to rebuild are a certainty so long as the radical Shiite Islamic Republic is led by its current jihadist regime.

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post Why the Hezbollah Ceasefire Is a Strategic Gamble for Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Germany: 5 Killed, Scores Wounded after Saudi Man Plows Car Into Christmas crowd

Magdeburg Christmas market, December 21, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Christian Mang

i24 NewsA suspected terrorist plowed a vehicle into a crowd at a Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, west of the capital Berlin, killing at least five and injuring dozens more.

Local police confirmed that the suspect was a Saudi national born in 1974 and acting alone.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his concern about the incident, saying that “reports from Magdeburg suggest something bad. My thoughts are with the victims and their families.”

Police declined to give casualty numbers, confirming only a large-scale operation at the market, where people had gathered to celebrate in the days leading up to the Christmas holidays.

The post Germany: 5 Killed, Scores Wounded after Saudi Man Plows Car Into Christmas crowd first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Syria’s New Rulers Name HTS Commander as Defense Minister

A person waves a flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers, as people gather during a celebration called by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) near the Umayyad Mosque, after the ousting of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, Photo: December 20, 2024. REUTERS/Ammar Awad/File Photo

Syria’s new rulers have appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, a leading figure in the insurgency which toppled Bashar al-Assad, as defense minister in the interim government, an official source said on Saturday.

Abu Qasra, who is also known by the nom de guerre Abu Hassan 600, is a senior figure in the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group which led the campaign that ousted Assad this month. He led numerous military operations during Syria’s revolution, the source said.

Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa discussed “the form of the military institution in the new Syria” during a meeting with armed factions on Saturday, state news agency SANA reported.

Abu Qasra during the meeting sat next to Sharaa, also known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, photos published by SANA showed.

Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir said this week that the defense ministry would be restructured using former rebel factions and officers who defected from Assad’s army.

Bashir, who formerly led an HTS-affiliated administration in the northwestern province of Idlib, has said he will lead a three-month transitional government. The new administration has not declared plans for what will happen after that.

Earlier on Saturday, the ruling General Command named Asaad Hassan al-Shibani as foreign minister, SANA said. A source in the new administration told Reuters that this step “comes in response to the aspirations of the Syrian people to establish international relations that bring peace and stability.”

Shibani, a 37-year-old graduate of Damascus University, previously led the political department of the rebels’ Idlib government, the General Command said.

Sharaa’s group was part of al Qaeda until he broke ties in 2016. It had been confined to Idlib for years until going on the offensive in late November, sweeping through the cities of western Syria and into Damascus as the army melted away.

Sharaa has met with a number of international envoys this week. He has said his primary focus is on reconstruction and achieving economic development and that he is not interested in engaging in any new conflicts.

Syrian rebels seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, forcing Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war and ending his family’s decades-long rule.

Washington designated Sharaa a terrorist in 2013, saying al Qaeda in Iraq had tasked him with overthrowing Assad’s rule and establishing Islamic sharia law in Syria. US officials said on Friday that Washington would remove a $10 million bounty on his head.

The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions.

The post Syria’s New Rulers Name HTS Commander as Defense Minister first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Sweden Ends Funding for UNRWA, Pledges to Seek Other Aid Channels

View of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Photo: Abed Rahim Khatib / Flash90.

i24 NewsSweden will no longer fund the U.N. refugee agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) and will instead provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza via other channels, the Scandinavian country said on Friday.

The decision comes on the heels of multiple revelations regarding the agency’s employees’ involvement in the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre in southern Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.

Sweden’s decision was in response to the Israeli ban, as it will make channeling aid via the agency more difficult, the country’s aid minister, Benjamin Dousa, said.

“Large parts of UNRWA’s operations in Gaza are either going to be severely weakened or completely impossible,” Dousa said. “For the government, the most important thing is that support gets through.”

The Palestinian embassy in Stockholm said in a statement: “We reject the idea of finding alternatives to UNRWA, which has a special mandate to provide services to Palestinian refugees.”

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel thanked Dousa for a meeting they had this week and for Sweden’s decision to drop its support for UNRWA.

“There are worthy and viable alternatives for humanitarian aid, and I appreciate the willingness to listen and adopt a different approach,” she said.

The post Sweden Ends Funding for UNRWA, Pledges to Seek Other Aid Channels first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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