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The Future of Syria Is Uncertain; Here’s What Israel Should Be Doing (PART ONE)
Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman meets Syria’s newly appointed Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Jan. 2, 2025. Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
The main lesson of the surprise attack on the Assad regime by the rebels in Syria begins with an overall view of the strategic logic that drives the Middle East region. The lesson that many in the West refuse to accept is that the region is a perpetually unstable ecosystem.
An ecosystem is sensitive to any small change. The conceptual opposite of an ecosystem is a sophisticated railway system. In the railways, operational stability is planned and managed according to a linear engineering design. In an ecosystem, conversely, stability is the result of systemic equilibrium and is always both temporary and sensitive to changes.
Western culture, which aspires to establish a reality of sustainable stability in the region, finds it difficult to accept that the Middle East — which contains clans, tribes, and radical terrorist organizations — is a system that operates according to the dynamics of an ecological system.
The achievements of the Israeli war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Hamas in the Gaza Strip created new conditions that marked an opportunity for the Sunni rebels in Syria. They took their chance and attacked the Assad army and the Iranian Shiite militias, toppling the Assad regime in less than two weeks.
The constant search by many Middle East actors for new fighting opportunities lies in their fundamental perception of all situations of calm, even prolonged periods of apparent peace, as temporary.
The Turks dream of returning to the expanses of the Ottoman Empire. Aleppo once played a central economic and symbolic role in connection with the cities of the Harran Valley in Turkey, including the city of Shelly-Orfa. After Napoleon’s retreat from Egypt and the Land of Israel, Muhammad Ali, the ruler of Egypt, sought to extend his control from Israel to Aleppo. In the years 1839-1841, the Second Egyptian-Ottoman War took place in the region. With the help of a British expeditionary force, the Ottomans defeated the Egyptian army and pushed it from the Aleppo region to the outskirts of Sinai. Greater Syria, which extended to the Land of Israel, returned to Ottoman control. Turkey aspires to restore this regional order. From their perspective, the struggle began in Aleppo with the pursuit of Damascus, which contains important Sunni mosques.
There is much more involved here than a longing for the past. The past in this region drives religious and national struggles. I learned this during a visit to the Iranian pavilion at the Shanghai Expo. Opposite the visitors’ entrance, a map of the Persian Empire from the time of Darius was displayed across the entire wall. This was a kind of declaration that Iran aspires to return to that glorious past.
This kind of thinking is the driving force in the region — even for borders that have gained international validity, such as the Sykes-Picot borders. In the Middle East, nothing outweighs religious and national dreams. Those dreams never fade; they rather await the right opportunity.
For Americans who continue to seek a stable and sustainable regional order, it is worth suggesting that they treat the Middle East as if it were prone to hurricanes that erupt from the oceans and strike the region from a system of forces beyond human control.
This is not to say that no capabilities exist with which to restrain and delay conflicts in the regional chaos that characterizes the Middle East. But even arrangements that seem to promise a degree of stability and calm must be sensitive to the possibility of unexpected factors arising within the system.
Tactical note
The rebel offensive in Syria also teaches an important tactical lesson about the characteristics of the new war. As on October 7, we saw the outbreak of rapid battle movement involving civilian vehicles, including motorcycles, SUVs and vans, in mobile and agile groups.
No one who promises a demilitarized Palestinian state will be able to stop the Palestinians from purchasing motorcycles and SUVs. Israelis should give thought to the image of a raiding party on motorcycles and jeeps breaking into Israel by surprise from Tulkarem-Qalqilya to cut through the coastal strip. They must understand that the IDF, with all its strength, cannot guarantee overwhelming superiority in any possible context.
The IDF’s operations in Syria
Even the best intelligence experts had difficulty predicting the tsunami of the rebel assault that so swiftly toppled the Syrian government and its army.
There is a great lesson here in recognizing the limitations of human knowledge. We cannot pretend to know or be able to control events that occur suddenly and unpredictably. Precisely for this reason, the speedy organization by the Israeli leadership and the IDF of a proper response to the Syrian rebel surprise deserves special appreciation.
The IDF’s rapid operational response to developments in Syria was guided by three objectives:
- To strengthen the defense effort on the Golan Heights. It is worth noting that preparations for strengthening and expanding Israel’s defense systems in the Golan — through proactive operations east of the border fence — began in the Golan Division, with the support of the Northern Command, several months ago. These preparations enabled a rapid response to expand Israel’s defensive hold on vital areas in the buffer zone defined in the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria. The IDF also took control of the peaks of the Hermon Range in a location that allows for influence deep inside Syria and southern Lebanon.
- To destroy the numerous weapons left behind by the Syrian army in Syria. In an unprecedented attack by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, weapons systems were destroyed that, had they remained operational, could have been used against the State of Israel. This effort was carried out with rapid momentum and precise management.
- To project power in the face of the chaos and make clear that the State of Israel has a security-strategic interest in the developing trends in Syria and will not be content to passively look on. Prime Minister Netanyahu wisely emphasized that Israel will try not to interfere in the institutionalization of the new order being organized in Syria. However, Israel has an interest in influencing developments in southern Syria in the Yarmouk Basin, where, until recently, Shiite militias took part in efforts to smuggle weapons to the Palestinian Authority and towards the Kingdom of Jordan. Looking north from the Hermon area, Israel has a primary interest in preserving Hezbollah’s isolation in Lebanon and preventing any possibility of reinforcements or new weapons arriving via Syria.
The first two objectives have been achieved in an astonishing manner. The third is complex and will require dynamic monitoring combined with an international effort emphasizing Israeli interests.
The situation in Syria continues to be unprecedented in its uncertainty.
Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen is a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. He served in the IDF for 42 years. He commanded troops in battles with Egypt and Syria. He was formerly a corps commander and commander of the IDF Military Colleges. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Liri Albag Celebrates 20th Birthday at Hospital With Other Hostages Released From Gaza
Liri Albag, center, standing from a balcony inside Israel’s Rabin Medical Center and watching an orchestra performance for her birthday alongside Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, Karina Ariev, and Naama Levy. Photo:
American Friends of Rabin Medical Center
Liri Albag, who was recently released from captivity in Gaza as part of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, celebrated her 20th birthday on Tuesday with other former hostages at Rabin Medical Center’s Beilinson Hospital in Petach Tikvah, Israel, where she is recovering after returning home 10 days earlier.
An orchestra came to the hospital to perform a small concert for Albag, who celebrated her previous birthday in Hamas captivity. The songs included Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah” and “Happy Birthday.” She watched from a balcony on one of the upper floors of the hospital alongside other freed hostages Agam Berger, Daniella Gilboa, Karina Ariev, and Naama Levy. All five women were serving as surveillance soldiers in the Israel Defense Forces when they were kidnapped from an IDF base in Nahal Oz by Hamas-led terrorists during their deadly rampage in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
Albag, Gilboa, Ariev, and Levy returned together after 15 months in Hamas captivity as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Five days later, Berger was also released as part of the ceasefire deal.
Albag uploaded a post on Instagram about her birthday and wrote: “Today I get to celebrate my 20th birthday with my loved ones. The only wish I asked for — is for all the hostages to return.”
Her older sister, Roni Albag, shared a photo from the birthday celebrations on Instagram and wrote in the caption: “Our Lirosh, our number 1. I dreamed of this moment countless times and here you are. Today you celebrate your 20th birthday at home!!! Today you celebrate the life that was given to you again. You are our victory, our heart and the light of our home. I love you and am here for you forever and ever.”
Liri posted on social media on Friday for the first time since returning from captivity. In an Instagram post, she thanked the people of Israel for their “support, love, and help.” She said, “Together, we are strength.” She also thanked the IDF and members of Israel’s security forces “who sacrificed their souls and fought for us and our country! There isn’t a morning that I don’t pray for their safety.”
“Finally got to reunite with my family! But our fight isn’t over and I won’t stop fighting until everyone is home!” she added. “I want us to continue to stay united, because together nothing can break us. The unity and hope we have in us scares all our enemies, amazes all our lovers, and comforts the people among us. A sentence that used to accompany me was ‘at the end of every night, darkness disappears.’ And I wish that everyone can see the light.”
Seven surveillance soldiers were abducted from the Nahal Oz base on Oct. 7, 2023, including Noa Marciano, who was killed in Hamas captivity, and Ori Megidish, who was rescued by the IDF in October 2023.
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US Lawmakers Mostly Skeptical at Trump Proposal for US to ‘Take Over’ Gaza
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet at the White House in Washington, DC, US, Feb. 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US lawmakers from both major parties mostly pushed back against President Donald Trump’s bombshell declaration that the US would “take over” the Gaza Strip to build the war-torn Palestinian enclave back up, with some members of Congress accusing Trump of endangering American troops, destabilizing the Middle East, and floating an ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza.
On Tuesday night, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was visiting the White House, held a press conference following their private meeting in the Oval Office. Trump asserted that the US would assume control of Gaza and develop it economically into “the Riviera of the Middle East” after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere.
“The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site.”
“We’re going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs, and it’ll be something that the entire Middle East can be very proud of,” Trump added. “I do see a long-term ownership position and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East.”
He suggested that Palestinians “should not go through a process of rebuilding” be relocated to other countries in the region, at least for the time being.
“That’s insane. I can’t think of a place on earth that would welcome American troops less and where any positive outcome is less likely,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) said of the idea.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the most strident allies of Israel in Congress, expressed skepticism about Trump’s proposal, calling it “problematic.”
“We’ll see what the Arab world says, but you know, that’d be problematic at many, many levels,” Graham said.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) repudiated Trump’s comments as “nuts” and suggested that members of both parties would be opposed to an American takeover of Gaza.
“I don’t know where this came from, but I can tell you … that would not get many expressions of support from Democrats or Republicans up here,” Kaine said.
Sen. Rand Paul rebuked the idea of sending American troops to secure Gaza, likening the proposal to an “occupation.”
“I thought we voted for America First. We have no business contemplating yet another occupation to doom our treasure and spill our soldiers’ blood,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that Trump has not committed to putting US troops on the ground in Gaza as part of his proposal, saying the US needs to be involved in the rebuilding of Gaza “to ensure stability in the region” but that “does not mean boots on the ground” in the enclave.
Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) dismissed the seriousness of Trump’s proposal, instead accusing the president of using Gaza as a distraction.
“I have news for you — we aren’t taking over Gaza. But the media and the chattering class will focus on it for a few days and Trump will have succeeded in distracting everyone from the real story — the billionaires seizing government to steal from regular people,” Murphy said on X/Twitter.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) also expressed skepticism that the plan would ever come to fruition.
“Obviously it’s not going to happen. I don’t know under what circumstance it would make sense even, even for Israel”
Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), the only Palestinian American in Congress and an outspoken critic of Israel, was apoplectic at Trump’s proposal, accusing the president of orchestrating an “ethnic cleansing” effort.
“Palestinians aren’t going anywhere. This president can only spew this fanatical bulls—t because of bipartisan support in Congress for funding genocide and ethnic cleansing,” Tlaib wrote on X/Twitter.
However, a handful of lawmakers expressed support for Trump’s proposal to completely overhaul Gaza.
Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) praised Trump’s press conference as “strong and decisive.”
“We’ve got to stand in an unwavering manner with Israel, our closest ally in the Middle East. The strong and decisive move is an important step in that regard,” Johnson said.
“It just makes sense to make the neighborhood there safer,” he added. “It’s common sense.”
Likewise, Rep. Marsha BlackburnT (R-TN) stated that Trump’s proposal “will eliminate Hamas terrorists and create economic prosperity.”
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), one of the strongest defenders of Israel in Congress, called Trump’s comments “provocative” but “part of a conversation.”
“The Palestinians have refused, or they’ve been unwilling to deliver, a government that provided security and economic development for themselves,” Fetterman said. “They allowed Oct. 7 to occur, and now Gaza has to be rebuilt. Where are the people going to live? Where are they going to go? So it’s part of a conversation with where they’re at right now.”
While many foreign policy experts opposed Trump’s proposal for reasons similar to those expressed by lawmakers, others saw potential merit, suggesting that relocating civilians from Gaza would bolster Israel’s safety and provide Palestinians with a better quality of life.
“To be clear, the position that human beings must remained trapped in ruins to be used as human shields for a brutal terrorist organization and political pawns in a 77-year war to destroy the State of Israel is the anti-human rights position,” wrote Richard Goldberg, senior adviser for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
David Friedman, the US ambassador to Israel during the first Trump administration, praised Trump’’ plan, saying that “most people in Gaza wanted to leave even before 10/7 [Hamas’s invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which started the Gaza war], but no one would take them in.”
“Assuming civilians agree to leave but Hamas sympathizers and terrorists do not, Hamas will be deprived of its most strategic weapon — human shields — and its eradication will be accelerated,” Friedman continued.
Steve Witkoff, the current US special envoy to the Middle East, hinted at support for Trump’s plan, arguing that Palestinians in Gaza deserve a “better life” and “better opportunities.”
“A better life is not necessarily tied to the physical space that you’re in today,” Witkoff said to Fox News host Sean Hannity. “That doesn’t occur because you get to pitch a tent in the Gaza Strip.”
Trump’s press conference echoed comments he made to reporters earlier on Tuesday, in which he also called for the relocation of Gaza’s civilians to Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states, referring to the enclave as a “demolition site” and saying residents have “no alternative” but to leave.
“[The Palestinians] have no alternative right now” but to leave Gaza, Trump told reporters before Netanyahu arrived. “I mean, they’re there because they have no alternative. What do they have? It is a big pile of rubble right now.”
Despite Trump’s insistence, Arab leaders have adamantly rejected the president’s proposal, claiming that they would not absorb civilians from the war-torn Gaza Strip. Trump has not offered any specifics about how a resettlement process could be implemented.
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Israelis Prefer Saudi Normalization Along With Creation of Palestinian State Over West Bank Annexation: Poll
Israeli national flags flutter near office towers at a business park also housing high tech companies, at Ofer Park in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 27, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Israelis prefer normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia along with the creation of a Palestinian state over the annexation of the West Bank, new polling shows.
The poll, released by the aChord Research Institute at Hebrew University, found that given the choice to “promote a regional political-security arrangement that includes normalization with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, and agreeing to establish a Palestinian state” or to “promote full annexation of the West Bank,” 60 percent of Israelis prefer the former while 31 percent prefer the latter.
Another 9 percent said they were unsure.
The newly released poll was conducted last month, as US President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
During his first term as president, Trump’s administration brokered the Abraham Accords, agreements between Israel and numerous Arab states to normalize relations. However, Saudi Arabia was not one of them, and both Washington and Jerusalem have seen Israeli-Saudi normalization as a key goal to foster greater peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday that Riyadh would not establish ties with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state. The statement came one day after Trump said the United States would take over Gaza after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere and develop it economically. No Arab country has expressed willingness to take in Palestinians from Gaza.
Some observers have speculated that Trump’s comments are designed to act as leverage in negotiations concerning either the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal or Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
As for the West Bank, a reporter asked Trump on Monday whether he supports Israel potentially annexing parts of the territory. Though Trump refused to answer the question directly, he seemed to indicate dissatisfaction with the size of Israel’s territorial boundaries, noting that the Jewish state is a “very small piece of land” and praising Israelis for their “amazing” accomplishments despite their country’s size.
Mike Huckabee, who Trump nominated to serve as the next US ambassador to Israel, has defended Israel’s right to build settlements in the West Bank, acknowledging the Jewish people’s ties to the land dating back to the ancient world.
Israelis who support annexing parts of the West Bank similarly note the Jewish people’s deep connection, both religiously and historically, to the land, as well as the fact that areas with well established settlements would likely be part of Israel under a two-state solution.
The two goals of Israeli-Saudi normalization and West Bank annexation are widely seen as mutually exclusive, as annexation would likely preclude many Arab states, most importantly Saudi Arabia, from considering normalization.
The Hebrew University poll also found that the majority of the Israeli public (55 percent) supports completing the hostage deal through all its phases and thus ending the war in Gaza. However, 59 percent also believe the deal damages Israel’s security situation, as thousands of terrorists will be released from Israeli prisons under the agreement.
There is also optimism about Trump entering office again. Sixty percent of Israelis say they believe he will act in Israel’s interests, according to the poll.
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