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Phase Two of the Hostage Deal: What Happens Next?
People stand next to flags on the day the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, Oded Lifschitz, Shiri Bibas, and her two children Kfir and Ariel Bibas, who were kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, are handed over under the terms of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Israel and Hamas are nearing completion of “Phase 1” of the January 19 ceasefire and hostage release deal, and what will happen next remains shrouded in mystery.
An estimated 27 living hostages and an estimated 32 bodies of murdered hostages remain in captivity. Furthermore, the Hamas terror organization remains armed and in control of Gaza, and both Israel and Hamas are expressing opposing demands for which there is no possible compromise. But the world has changed since October 7, 2023, and the way forward may offer an unexpected new option.
The deal with Hamas was designed to occur in three phases: 1. Release of Israeli women, children, and elderly hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terror convicts held in Israeli prisons, as well as Israeli withdrawal from certain parts of Gaza, 2. Release of all remaining hostages in exchange for permanent and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and 3. Rebuilding Gaza.
In effect, the only way to proceed to Phase 2 is for Israel to allow Hamas to remain in power and to be the beneficiary of massive amounts of international aid, thus almost certainly ensuring another October 7 style attack will lie in Israel’s future. Israel is determined to not permit such an outcome, and Hamas is determined to not settle for anything less.
While the Israeli government has been tight lipped about its plans (perhaps because no decision has yet been reached), one anonymous official leaked the following:
Hamas has three choices.
- Disarm, send its leaders into exile, and give up any civil control over Gaza, thus releasing the hostages and ending the war.
- Continue releasing hostages in the style of Phase 1, and thus extend the ceasefire for now.
- Return to war.
The Israeli official added that if there isn’t an agreement or another release of hostages by March 8, then war will resume.
It is unlikely that Hamas would choose option #1 (exile), which leaves option #2 (ongoing hostage release), option #3 (war), or Hamas’sdemand for total Israeli withdrawal.
Some Israelis suggest that Israel agree to Hamas’ terms as a kind of ruse, and then, once all the hostages are released, to violate the deal and return to war.Yet Hamas is not unsophisticated and will almost certainly maintain leverage over Israel: either by finding an excuse to hold back some hostages indefinitely, or else by some international mechanism that would succeed in tying Israel’s hands.
Others Israelis insist on agreeing to Hamas’ demands and paying “any price” for the return of the hostages, even if that price results in future terror attacks, future hostages, and future bloodshed for even more Israelis. Still others point out, quite correctly, that in 16 months of war, Israel has not fully accomplished any of its goals: as both Hamas remains in power, and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Yet much has changed in recent months, and if Israel were to return to war, it would be prosecuted differently. Israel has been compelled to essentially fund both sides of this war, effectively providing fuel, electricity, and humanitarian supplies to Hamas. Hamas habitually stole these supplies and used them in two ways: 1. to directly support its fighters and fuel its rockets, or else 2. by selling supplies to civilians in order to raise funds for its military activities. This tactic also ensures Hamas’ ongoing popularity among the populace, as the terror group remains the sole source of food and supplies. Furthermore, international pressure greatly limited Israel’s ability to strike when and how it wished, to use certain weapons, or even to relocate Gaza’s civilians out of harm’s way, thus forcing Israel to fight through human shields.
Israel now has far greater support from the United States for aggressive action, including moving civilians out of Gaza. Such an approach would leave Gaza a total military zone, where Israel would have nearly unlimited freedom of action, and there would be no need for humanitarian aid, as there would be no civilian population to receive it. Moving civilians has proven highly effective over the past 16 months despite international doubts. For example, shortly after US Vice President Kamala Harris opposed moving civilians out of Rafah last March, claiming, “I have studied the maps, there’s nowhere for those folks to go,” Israel proved her wrong, moving a million people in just 10 days. Similar movements were accomplished out of Jabalya, Khan Yunis, and Gaza City.
It is also likely that, regardless of the fate of Hamas, Israelis will never be truly safe unless all Palestinians are relocated out of Gaza. Formerly an extreme right wing opinion, this notion is now the mainstream Israeli consensus across the entire political spectrum, with widespread support from almost all Israeli Jews (left, right and center) as well as nearly half of Israeli Arabs.
The impediment to moving Palestinians out of Gaza is therefore not the ability to physically move them, nor Israeli domestic opinion, nor international law which explicitly permits such movements, but rather the refusal of the Arab world to accept Palestinians under any circumstances.
Yet America has significant leverage over Egypt and Jordan, and has recently demonstrated a newfound openness to actually using it. For example: a mostly forgotten bit of history is that the Arab Spring (and the resulting overthrow of Egypt’s government) actually began when Russia stopped providing low cost wheat exports in 2011, thus spiking the price of bread within Egypt, and triggering the famous protests in Tahrir Square. This example demonstrates just how fragile certain middle eastern economies actually are. The United States, which provides billions of dollars of aid to Egypt and Jordan, can trigger similarly crippling economic effects with the stroke of a pen, thus endangering the very existence of entire countries without firing a shot.
Israelis are caught in a paradox: on the one hand wanting all hostages home, and on the other, wanting to fight for a safer reality on Israel’s southern border. The most likely outcome is that Phase 1 will informally continue, with ongoing hostage releases in exchange for ongoing ceasefire, until Hamas decides that the risk of no longer holding hostages is greater than the risk of imminent war. At that point, we will likely see a re-eruption of war in Gaza, but of a vastly different and more effective character than we have seen up until now.
One can only imagine how much bloodshed would have been spared on all sides, and how much more quickly the hostages might have come home, had Israel received the international support it both needed and deserved 16 months ago.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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US Sanctions Six Firms in China, Hong Kong Over Iranian Drone Network
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
The United States has sanctioned six entities in Hong Kong and China for allegedly participating in an Iranian drone procurement network, as the Trump administration advances its so-called “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
These latest sanctions follow the US Treasury Department’s announcement earlier this week of new restrictions on Iran’s oil industry, targeting over 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies involved in transporting and selling Iranian petroleum.
On Wednesday, Washington issued these new sanctions against entities accused of procuring unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) components for the Iranian firm Pishtazan Kavosh Gostar Boshra and its subsidiary, Narin Sepehr Mobin Isatis, both already blacklisted by the US, calling them key suppliers to Iran’s UAV and ballistic missile programs.
“Iran continues to try to find new ways to procure the key components it needs to bolster its UAV weapons program through new front companies and third-country suppliers,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.
“The Treasury remains committed to disrupting the schemes that enable Iran to send its deadly weapons abroad to its terrorist proxies and other destabilizing actors.”
According to a Reuters report, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington, said Beijing and Tehran’s cooperation was “reasonable and legal.”
“China has always firmly opposed the illegal unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States and will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises and citizens,” Pengyu said.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy toward Tehran, aiming to cut the country’s crude exports to zero and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
However, Trump also expressed a willingness to talk to Iran’s leaders, stating his desire to reach a “nuclear peace agreement” to improve bilateral relations, while insisting that the Iranian regime must not develop a nuclear weapon.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected the possibility of nuclear talks with Washington, stating that Tehran would “not negotiate under pressure, threat, or sanctions.”
“There will be no possibility of direct talks between us and the United States on the nuclear issue as long as the maximum pressure is applied in this way,” Araghchi said during a joint press conference with his visiting Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.
Iran’s so-called “supreme leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also rejected the idea of negotiating with Washington, calling such a move “unwise” and “dishonorable.”
This week, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported that Iran has further accelerated its production of near weapons-grade uranium, according to a report by The Associated Press.
As of Feb. 8, Tehran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium reached 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds), an increase of 92.5 kilograms (203.9 pounds) since IAEA’s last report in November.
Iran has repeatedly claimed that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes rather than weapon development.
Last year, the UK, France, and Germany said in a statement that there is no “credible civilian justification” for Tehran’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
In their latest report, the IAEA estimated that Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium stands at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds), an increase of 1,690.0 kilograms (3,725.8 pounds). The report also noted that Iran continues to ban some of the agency’s most experienced inspectors from monitoring the country’s nuclear program.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% purity and maintain a stockpile of no more than 300 kilograms.
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Contender in NYC Mayoral Race Has Extensive Anti-Israel Trackrecord
Ron Adar / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
A major contender in the New York City (NYC) mayoral race has an extensive anti-Israel track record, raising concerns among the Big Apple’s Jewish population that the city’s staunch support of the Jewish State may be in jeopardy.
Zohran Mamdani, a representative within the New York State Assembly and candidate for New York City mayor, has made anti-Israel activism a cornerstone of his political career. Mamdani, a self-described progressive and socialist, has both advanced state legislation seeking to punish Israel and has labelled the Jewish state’s defensive military operations in Gaza a “genocide.”
According to a poll conducted by Honan Strategy Group from Feb. 22-23, Mamdani currently sits in second place in the NYC mayoral race, polling at 12 percent. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead at 38 percent.
In 2021, Mamdani issued public support for the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement—an initiative which seeks to economically and diplomatically isolate Israel in the first step to its eventual destruction. He claimed that support for the anti-Israel movement is growing within New York City, saying on X/Twitter that “The tide is turning. The fight for justice is here. The moment is now.” That same year, he also called for prohibiting New York lawmakers from visiting Israel, asserting that “every elected [official] must be pressured to stand with Palestinians.”
In May 2023, Mamdani advanced the “Not on our dime!: Ending New York Funding of Israeli Settler Violence Act,” legislation which would ban charities from using tax-deductible donations to aid organizations that work in the West Bank. Mamdani argued that the legislation would help the state fight against so-called Israeli “war crimes” against Palestinians. The socialist dismissed critics of the legislation, saying that his anti-Israel proposal is “in line with the sentiments of most New Yorkers.”
On Oct. 8, 2023, 24 hours following the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust, Mamdani published a statement condemning “Netnayahu’s declaration of war” and suggesting that Israel would use the terror attacks to justify committing a second “Nakba.” Mamdani then said that Israel can only secure its long term safety by “ending the occupation and dismantling apartheid.”
Five days later, he further criticized Israel’s response to the Hamas-led massacres, saying that “we are brink of a genocide of Palestinians in Gaza right now”
In January 2024, he called on NYC to cease sending any funds to Israel, saying that “Voters oppose their tax dollars funding a genocide.”
The progressive firebrand is also a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a far-left political organization with critical views of Israel. Though the DSA has long opposed Israel, the organization has ramped up its pro-Hamas rhetoric during the ongoing war in Gaza. On Oct. 7, the organization issued a statement saying that Hamas’ massacre was “a direct result of Israel’s apartheid regime.” The organization also encouraged its followers to attend an Oct. 8 “All Out for Palestine” event in Manhattan.
In January 2024, the DSA issued a statement calling for an “end to diplomatic and military support of Israel.” Then in April, the organization’s international committee, DSA IC, issued a missive defending Iran’s right to “self-defense” against Israel. In addition, the socialist group slammed former US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) over his vote in favor of replenishing Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system.
The organization has also issued public support of Hamas, calling the terrorist group a “resistance” and “armed struggle” against Israel. In March 2024, the organization publicly repudiated progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), after the lawmaker condemned Hamas, arguing that Palestinians have a “right to defend against occupation.”
Mamdani’s political ascendence comes amid a spike in anti-Jewish hate crimes within New York City.
New York City has been ravaged by a surge in antisemitic incidents in the 16 months following Oct. 7. According to NYPD data, Jews accounted for a majority of all hate crimes in the city. Pro-Hamas activists have held raucous—and sometimes violent—protests on the city’s college campuses, oftentimes causing Jewish students to fear for their safety. NYC schools are also currently facing criticism for failing to protect Jewish and Israeli students from antisemitism.
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GOP Lawmakers Urge Trump to Recognize Israeli Sovereignty Over West Bank
Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) Source: Reuters
A group of Republican lawmakers are urging US President Donald Trump to formally recognize Israel’s sovereignty over the West Bank, citing the territory’s historical ties and importance to the Jewish people.
Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY), one of the most strident pro-Israel voices in Congress, spearheaded a letter to Trump, calling on the president to endorse an Israeli annexation of the West Bank. Other signatories of the letter include Mary Miller (R-IL), Barry Moore (R-AL), Nick LaLota (R-NY), Randy Weber (R-TX), and Andy Harris (R-MD).
The coalition of pro-Israel Republicans—which are members of the Friends of Judea and Samaria Caucus—argue that the internationally recognized borders of the West Bank, “comprise the Judeo-Christian biblical heartland, where over 80 percent of the Torah and Old Testament took place.” Thus, the lawmakers claim that acknowledging Israel’s claim over the West Bank is central to reinforce America and Israel’s shared “Judeo-Christian heritage.”
The lawmakers argue that recognizing the West Bank as Israeli territory would help build upon his record of supporting the Jewish state. Letter pointed to Trump’s 2021 recognition of the City of David in Jerusalem as a “testament to America’s Judeo-Christian heritage and founding principles.” The lawmakers claim that the West Bank, which they refer to as Judea and Samaria, is similarly critical to Israel’s national identity.
They also said that they were in “strong opposition to the recognition of any hostile Arab state in Judea and Samaria that supports terrorism and fails to recognize Israel.”
Israeli leaders have also publicly opposed the creation of a Palestinian state within the West Bank, arguing that the territory would become a hotbed of terrorism and launching pad for direct attacks into the Jewish state’s population centers.
In the immediate aftermath of President Trump’s victory last November, several high-profile conservative lawmakers vowed to refer to the West Bank as Judea and Samaria, aligning themselves with the terminology preferred by Israel. To many observers, the shift in language signalled a shift in US policy closer to the Jewish state and in favor of further expansion of Jewish communities in the territory.However, Critics have argued that the change in language might inflame tensions in the Middle East, complicating the possibility of reaching a two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Nonetheless, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK), introduced legislation in December ban the federal government from using the term “West Bank” instead of “Judea and Samaria,” arguing that the bill would “align US policy language with the geographical and cultural significance of the region.”
Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has also vowed to use the words Judea and Samaria in lieu of the West Bank.
“I can’t say something I don’t believe. As you well know, I’ve never been willing to use the term ‘West Bank.’ There is no such thing. I speak of Judea and Samaria,” Huckabee told Israeli media outlet Arutz Sheva in an interview. “I tell people there is no ‘occupation.’ It is a land that is ‘occupied’ by the people who have had a rightful deed to the place for 3,500 years, since the time of Abraham.”
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