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Iran Faces US Without Plan B as Nuclear Red Lines Collide
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
While rising US–Iran tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse.
With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a “Plan B,” the sources said, but with Beijing’s trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.
“The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself,” a senior Iranian official said.
“The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China.”
On Tuesday, Iran‘s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected US demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous,” warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
After four rounds of talks aimed at curbing Iran‘s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, multiple stumbling blocks remain. Tehran refuses to ship all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or engage in discussions over its ballistic missile program, two of the Iranian officials and a European diplomat said.
The lack of trust on both sides and President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 accord with world powers has also raised the importance for Iran of getting guarantees that Washington will not renege on a future accord.
Compounding Tehran’s challenges, Iran‘s clerical establishment is grappling with mounting crises – energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, military losses among regional allies, and rising fears of an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites – all exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies.
With Trump’s speedy revival of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, including tightened sanctions and military threats, the sources said, Iran‘s leadership “has no better option” than a new deal to avert economic chaos at home that could threaten its rule.
Nationwide protests over social repression and economic hardship in recent years, met with harsh crackdowns, have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to public anger and triggered sets of Western human rights sanctions.
“Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said the second official, who like others asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of matter.
Iran‘s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment.
A THORNY PATH
Wendy Sherman, former US Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the US negotiating team that reached the 2015 accord between Tehran and six world powers, said it was impossible to convince Tehran to “dismantle its nuclear program and give up their enrichment even though that would be ideal.”
“So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don’t think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president,” she said.
Even if enrichment disputes narrow, lifting sanctions remains fraught. The US favors phasing out nuclear-related sanctions, while Tehran demands immediate removal of all restrictions.
Dozens of Iranian institutions vital to Iran‘s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have been sanctioned since 2018 for “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation.”
When asked about Iran‘s options if talks fail, Sherman said Tehran would likely “continue to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, largely to China, perhaps India and others”.”
China, Iran‘s primary oil buyer despite sanctions, has helped stave off economic collapse, but Trump’s intensified pressure on Chinese trade entities and tankers threatens these exports.
Analysts warn that China and Russia’s support has limits. China insists on steep discounts for Iranian oil and may push for lower prices as global oil demand weakens.
If talks collapse – a scenario both Tehran and Washington hope to avoid – neither Beijing nor Moscow can shield Iran from unilateral US and EU sanctions.
France, Britain, and Germany, though not part of the US–Iran talks, have warned they would reimpose UN sanctions if no deal emerged quickly.
Under the 2015 nuclear pact’s UN resolution, the E3 have until Oct. 18 to trigger the so-called “snapback mechanism” before the resolution expires.
According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may do this by August if no substantial deal can be found by then.
Diplomats warn that getting a deal before then would mean, in the best-case scenario, an initial political framework like in 2013 whereby both sides offer some immediate concrete concessions giving time for a more detailed negotiation.
“There is no reason to think it will take less time than the 18 months in 2013 especially when the parameters and the geopolitical situation is more complicated now,” a senior European official said.
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French Official Tells Paper Arab Countries Will Condemn Hamas, Trying to Get Palestinian Statehood Recognized
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot speaks to the media on the day he attends the European Union Foreign Ministers council in Brussels, Belgium, July 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman
Arab countries will for the first time condemn Hamas and call for its disarmament early next week at a United Nations ministerial event in New York, a move meant to lure more European countries to recognize Palestinian statehood, France’s foreign minister said on Saturday.
In an exclusive interview with French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche, Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot said the move was part of a long-planned initiative between France and Saudi Arabia.
“For the first time, Arab countries will condemn Hamas and call for its disarmament, which will seal its definitive isolation. European countries will in turn confirm their intention to recognize the State of Palestine. Half of European countries have done so, all others are considering it,” Barrot told the JDD.
“The British Prime Minister has stated his intention to do so. Germany is considering it at a later stage. We will launch an appeal in New York for other countries to join us in order to set in motion an even more ambitious and demanding process that will culminate on September 21,” Barrot added.
On Thursday French President Emmanuel Macron announced France would formally recognize the state of Palestine at the U.N. General Assembly on September 21, drawing condemnation from the U.S. and Israel.
Earlier on Saturday Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni called it counterproductive to recognize a Palestinian state before it is established.
On Friday a German government spokesperson said there were no plans to recognize a Palestinian state in the short term.
At the upcoming United Nations event on Monday and Tuesday, France and Saudi Arabia plan to lay out a proposed post-war roadmap leading to a two-state solution covering security, reconstruction and governance, which will be compatible with the Abraham Accords negotiated by US President Trump, Barrot said.
The French minister added that in coming weeks the European Commission would take a tougher stance on Israel and demand a stop on building of any new settlement projects in the West Bank, and also an end to militarized policing of humanitarian aid distribution.
Barrot also called on fellow European countries to demand a removal of the financial blockade on the Palestinian authority so it can receive 2 billion euros he said it is owed.
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Jordan and UAE Drop Aid Into Gaza in First Airdrop in Months, Jordanian Source Says
An airplane drops humanitarian aid over Gaza as seen from northern Gaza Strip July 27, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Jordan and the United Arab Emirates parachuted 25 tons of aid into the Gaza Strip on Sunday in their first airdrop in months, a Jordanian official source said.
The official said the air drops were not a substitute for delivery by land.
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Trump Says Israel Will Have to Decide on Next Steps in Gaza, Pledges More Aid
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 8, 2025. Photo: Kevin Lamarque via Reuters Connect.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday Israel would have to make a decision on next steps in Gaza, adding that he did not know what would happen after the collapse of ceasefire and hostage-release negotiations with the Hamas terrorist group.
Trump underscored the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, saying they had suddenly “hardened” up on the issue, and said the US would provide more aid to the war-torn Palestinian enclave.
“They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision,” Trump told reporters at the start of a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at his golf property in Turnberry, Scotland.
“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said, while also claiming, without evidence, that Hamas members were stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both appeared on Friday to abandon Gaza ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, saying it had become clear that the Palestinian group did not want a deal.
Netanyahu said Israel was now mulling “alternative” options to achieve its goals of bringing its hostages home from Gaza and ending Hamas rule in the enclave.
Trump said he believed Hamas leaders would now be “hunted down,” telling reporters: “Hamas really didn’t want to make a deal. I think they want to die. And it’s very bad. And it got to be to a point where you’re going to have to finish the job.”
US TO PROVIDE MORE AID, TRUMP SAYS
Trump on Sunday said the US would provide more humanitarian aid to Gaza, where concerns are mounting about the worsening hunger, but wanted other countries to participate as well. He said he would discuss the issue with von der Leyen.
“We’re giving a lot of money, a lot of food, a lot of everything,” he said. “If we weren’t there, I think people would have starved, frankly. They would have starved, and it’s not like they’re eating well.”
He said he had spoken with Netanyahu and discussed a number of issues, including Iran. He said and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer would also discuss Israel when they meet at Trump’s golf property in Turnberry on Monday.
Trump also noted said the United States was not acknowledged for earlier food aid for Gaza.
“No other country gave anything,” he said, calling out European countries in particular. “It makes you feel a little bad when you do that and, you know, you have other countries not giving anything… Nobody gave but us. And nobody said, Gee, thank you very much. And it would be nice to have at least a thank you.”
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