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Israel is at an existential pivot point. It never needed to go this far.
Two years after the Oct. 7 massacre, the Middle East is at an absurd pivot point. If Hamas, badly beaten but unbowed, accepts the disarmament element in President Donald Trump’s new peace plan, the region will move toward reconstruction, Gulf-financed normalization, and peace. If it refuses, Israel will likely re-occupy Gaza, miring the region in a ruinous quagmire.
That so much now depends on the whim of a terrorist group is a scandal — the product not only of Hamas’s diabolical strategy and indifference to loss of life, but of American weakness and, crucially, a chain of catastrophically bad choices by Israelis. It did not have to be this way.
The choice between abyss and opportunity is simple in outline and brutal in consequence. One future is endless counterinsurgency in Gaza: Soldiers patrolling hostile alleys and encountering roadside bombs, with Palestinian families under curfew, while Israel’s economy bleeds, its society seethes and its global standing plummets. The other is the disarmament and removal of Hamas, with the hostages returned, Gulf money flowing into reconstruction, and quite possibly dramatic moves toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and maybe others.
That binary was manufactured, step by avoidable step, by foolishness, arrogance, and weakness from key players:
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- The political opening: Netanyahu’s return. The rightward re-alignment of Israeli politics after repeated elections was caused by splits in the center-left, and an utter lack of focus from Israel’s moderate parties that made Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s comeback possible. The coalition he assembled after the November 2022 election, dependent on fanatics and brimming with ex-cons and incompetents, was a disaster waiting to happen. The wait wasn’t long.
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- Judicial overhaul and societal schism. Netanyahu’s drive to neuter the judiciary and establish an illiberal majoritarian semi-democracy, similar to that of nearby Turkey, began within days of his resuming power. It tore Israeli society apart in 2023, provoking mass protests and deepening social polarization — a rupture that the security establishment warned would project weakness and invite attack.
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- Ignoring security warnings and intelligence. Knowing this was their position, Netanyahu refused to meet with the heads of the military, Shin Bet and Mossad in the weeks and months before Oct. 7. For their part, the security chiefs also ignored multiple intelligence indicators of Hamas’ intent for a major attack. The signals were minimized or misread — a classic bureaucratic pattern of cognitive failure. As for Netanyahu, his fabulously misguided position, for many years, was that Hamas ruling Gaza was useful because it weakened the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank — which is threatening to him precisely because it is moderate.
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- Troop diversion to the West Bank. In the run-up to Oct. 7, forces and attention were redirected to the West Bank to manage flashpoints — a political decision tied to coalition pressures to accommodate radical settlers determined to provoke the Palestinians, which left the Gaza boundary defense much thinner than it should have been.
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- Tactical failures on Oct. 7. When the assault began, early military warnings were not acted on, local commanders were confused, communications broke down, and reinforcements arrived too late, often not unless 10 hours later, in a small country.
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- Blundering into war. Israel briefly held the moral high ground as the world recognized Hamas’ act of barbarism. Arab capitals were unusually receptive, and the diplomatic leverage was enormous. That was the moment to demand the release of hostages, insist on Hamas surrendering Gaza’s administration to the Palestinian Authority, and make disarmament a multilateral demand enforced by a regional-Western coalition. If Hamas had refused, the world would have been forced into an explicit test — and come to understand, once and for all, that war was the option Hamas wanted.
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- Ignoring the hostage problem. It was obvious from the start that Israel could not destroy Hamas while the group held hostages in Gaza. The captives were a human shield, ensuring that any attempt at “total victory” would be self-defeating. Netanyahu denied this, promising that annihilation was possible while sending the army in and out of the same ruins two years of an endless cat-and-mouse.
These step-by-step misfires, together, make it clear that at every subsequent juncture, Netanyahu chose to prolong kinetic action. A permanent state of emergency enabled him to argue for deferring accountability and shifting the discussion away from the unwinnable one about his role in Oct. 7.
And the United States showed weakness and complicity with nonsense at key moments.
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- A missed opportunity. In late 2023 and early 2024, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken was crisscrossing the region to put together a comprehensive plan: return of all hostages, the Palestinian Authority restored to Gaza, normalization with Saudi Arabia. Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration believed it was achievable. Netanyahu refused, knowing his coalition would collapse. Biden, astonishingly, effectively accepted the rebuff — a display of weakness that allowed the war to grind on, and, of course, hurt the Democrats’ chances to retain the American presidency.
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- Biden’s big error. Biden went further, publicly endorsing Netanyahu’s own outline for ending the war in exchange for hostages. Within weeks, Netanyahu reneged, and Biden again let it pass. The cost was counted not only in the lives of Palestinian civilians, but also in those of Israeli soldiers and hostages who might have been saved.
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- And Trump’s. By January, 2025, after 15 months of devastation, a reelected Trump forced Netanyahu to accept what was essentially the same plan as Biden had put forward. But Netanyahu walked away halfway through implementation, without even denying that doing so was a violation of the deal — because Trump allowed him to (and indeed was then advocating for the expulsion of all Gazans in favor of a U.S.-built “riviera”).
Each of these errors compounded the others and cost many lives.
On the Palestinian side, it is widely believed that some 65,000 people are dead, over half of them civilians — although all numbers from Gaza are suspect, as they come from authorities linked to Hamas. According to Israel’s Defense Ministry, 1,152 Israeli soldiers and security personnel have been killed in the course of the war, including several hundred in the Oct. 7 attack itself. Of the 251 people abducted on Oct. 7, the vast majority of them civilians, at least 83 are believed to have been killed — the cost of these decisions to not prioritize their release.
At every pause when Netanyahu prolonged the war he could say “Hamas is not yet destroyed.” People who both wanted Hamas gone and the hostages freed could be manipulated into tolerating continuation of fighting. That line sustained support from about a third of the public.
What are the lessons of this litany of error — other than the obvious one, that Netanyahu must be removed from power at almost any cost?
The big one is that Israel, even if Hamas says no to Trump’s deal, must resist the impulse to push forward militarily. Two years of devastation have made it plain: The war cannot be “won” so long as hostages remain in Hamas’s grip, and every repetition of the cat-and-mouse in Gaza only weakens Israel’s legitimacy and social cohesion, while strengthening Hamas’s narrative.
If Hamas refuses to disarm, the wiser course is to flip the script, and increase pressure on them without further military action.
The priority must be the hostages: Every diplomatic channel and instrument of international pressure should be deployed to secure their release. Humanitarian suffering must be addressed by offering civilians temporary refuge — in Egypt, in the West Bank, or elsewhere — guaranteed by international commitments of return once Hamas is gone.
This is not ethnic cleansing; it is protection, analogous to Ukrainians sheltering in Poland during the Russian assault. Properly framed, it exposes Hamas as the jailer of Gaza’s people.
If Hamas breaks, then excellent: the Trump plan can proceed with a technocratic Palestinian government in Gaza, reforms in the Palestinian Authority, Gulf-financed reconstruction, and normalization with Saudi Arabia and beyond. If Hamas refuses, the world must be made to see that Palestinian misery is not the people’s inevitable fate, but the direct consequence of Hamas’s obstinacy.
The fact that the Middle East’s future now waits on Hamas is not some cosmic inevitability: it is the fruit of a sequence of political, tactical and strategic mistakes. Israel must learn from this disaster, and take steps never to be so exposed in the future.
The post Israel is at an existential pivot point. It never needed to go this far. appeared first on The Forward.
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Father and Son Behind Bondi Mass Shooting, Australia Police Say
A man lights a candle as police officers stand guard following the attack on a Jewish holiday celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach, in Sydney, Australia, December 15, 2025. REUTERS/Flavio Brancaleone
Two gunmen who attacked a Jewish celebration in Sydney’s Bondi Beach that killed 15 people were a father and son, police said on Monday, as Australia mourned victims of its worst gun violence in almost 30 years.
The father, a 50-year-old, was killed at the scene while his 24-year-old son was in critical condition in the hospital, police said at a press conference on Monday. Officials have described the shooting on Sunday as a targeted antisemitic attack.
Witnesses said the attack at the famed beach, which was packed on a hot evening, lasted about 10 minutes, sending hundreds of people scattering along the sand and into nearby streets and parks. Police said around 1,000 people had attended the Hanukkah event.
Forty people remain in hospital following the attack, including two police officers who are in a serious but stable condition, police said. The victims were aged between 10 and 87.
Authorities said they were confident only two attackers were involved in the incident after previously saying they were checking whether a third offender was involved.
Police investigations are ongoing and police numbers have been increased in Jewish communities.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who visited the scene on Monday, called the attack a “dark moment for our nation,” and said police and security agencies were thoroughly checking the motive behind the attack.
“What we saw yesterday was an act of pure evil, an act of antisemitism, an act of terrorism on our shores in an iconic Australian location,” Albanese told reporters.
“The Jewish community are hurting today. Today, all Australians wrap our arms around them and say, we stand with you. We will do whatever is necessary to stamp out antisemitism. It is a scourge, and we will eradicate it together.”
Albanese said several world leaders including US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron had reached out and he thanked them for their solidarity.
“In Australia, there was a terrible attack … and that was an antisemitic attack obviously,” Trump said during a Christmas reception at the White House on Sunday, paying respects for the victims of attacks at Bondi and another shooting at Rhode Island’s Brown University.
‘SAW BODIES ON THE GROUND’
A bystander captured on video tackling and disarming an armed man during the attack has been hailed as a hero whose actions saved lives.
In Bondi, hundreds of police personnel remained on site on Monday as the suburb’s main road remained closed, after being declared a crime scene.
Rabbi Mendel Kastel, whose brother-in-law Eli Schlanger was killed in Sunday’s attack, said it had been a harrowing evening.
“You can very easily become very angry and try to blame people, turn on people but that’s not what this is about. It’s about a community,” he said.
“We need to step up at a time like this, be there for each other, and come together. And we will, and we will get through this, and we know that. The Australian community will help us do it,” he added.
Local woman Danielle, who declined to give her surname, was at the beach when the shooting occurred and raced to collect her daughter who was attending a bar mitzvah at a function center near where the alleged shooters were positioned.
“I heard there was a shooting so I bolted there to get my daughter, I could hear gunshots, I saw bodies on the ground. We are used to being scared, we have felt this way since October 7.”
Sunday’s shootings were the most serious of a string of antisemitic attacks on synagogues, buildings and cars in Australia since the beginning of Israel‘s war in Gaza in October 2023.
Australia’s Jewish diaspora is small but deeply embedded in the wider community, with about 150,000 people who identify as Jewish in the country of 27 million. About one-third of them are estimated to live in Sydney’s eastern suburbs, including Bondi.
Major cities including Berlin, London and New York stepped up security around Hanukkah events on Sunday following the attack at Bondi.
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World Reacts to Deadly Shooting at Australia’s Bondi Beach
People walk at the scene of a shooting incident at Bondi Beach, Sydney, Australia, December 14, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Kirsty Needham
At least 11 people were killed and dozens wounded when gunmen opened fire during a Jewish holiday event at Sydney’s Bondi Beach on Sunday, Australian officials said.
Following are comments from world leaders in the wake of the deadly shooting:
ANTHONY ALBANESE, PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA
“This is a targeted attack on Jewish Australians on the first day of Hanukkah, which should be a day of joy, a celebration of faith.
“At this dark moment for our nation, our police and security agencies are working to determine anyone associated with this outrage.”
SUSSAN LEY, OPPOSITION LEADER OF AUSTRALIA
“Australians are in deep mourning tonight, with hateful violence striking at the heart of an iconic Australian community, a place we all know so well and love, Bondi.”
BRITAIN’S KING CHARLES
“My wife and I are appalled and saddened by the most dreadful antisemitic terrorist attack on Jewish people attending the Chanukah celebration at Bondi Beach.
“Our hearts go out to everyone who has been affected so dreadfully, including the police officers who were injured while protecting members of their community. We commend the police, emergency services and members of the public whose heroic actions no doubt prevented even greater horror and tragedy.”
FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON
“In Sydney, an antisemitic terrorist attack struck families gathered to celebrate Hanukkah. France extends its thoughts to the victims, the injured and their loved ones. We share the pain of the Australian people and will continue to fight relentlessly against antisemitic hatred, which hurts us all, wherever it strikes.”
US SECRETARY OF STATE, MARCO RUBIO
“Antisemitism has no place in this world. Our prayers are with the victims of this horrific attack, the Jewish community, and the people of Australia.”
UN SECRETARY-GENERAL ANTONIO GUTERRES
“I am horrified and condemn today’s heinous deadly attack on Jewish families gathered in Sydney to celebrate Hannukah. My heart is with the Jewish community worldwide on this first day of Hannukah, a festival celebrating the miracle of peace and light vanquishing darkness.”
FRIEDRICH MERZ, CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY
“The antisemitic attack at Bondi Beach during Hanukkah leaves me utterly shocked. My thoughts are with the victims and their families. This is an attack on our shared values. We must fight antisemitism – here in Germany and around the world.”
NARENDRA MODI, PRIME MINISTER OF INDIA
“Strongly condemn the ghastly terrorist attack carried out today at Bondi Beach, Australia, targeting people celebrating the first day of the Jewish festival of Hanukkah.
“On behalf of the people of India, I extend my sincere condolences to the families who lost their loved ones. We stand in solidarity with the people of Australia in this hour of grief. India has zero tolerance towards terrorism and supports the fight against all forms and manifestations of terrorism.”
KEIR STARMER, UK PRIME MINISTER
“Deeply distressing news from Australia. The United Kingdom sends our thoughts and condolences to everyone affected by the appalling attack in Bondi Beach.”
CHRISTOPHER LUXON, PRIME MINISTER OF NEW ZEALAND
“Australia and New Zealand are closer than friends, we’re family. I am shocked by the distressing scenes at Bondi, a place that Kiwis visit every day.
“My thoughts, and the thoughts of all New Zealanders, are with those affected.”
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL
“A few months ago, I wrote a letter to the prime minister of Australia. I told him that their policies pour fuel on the antisemitic fire. It encourages the Jew hatred now stalking your streets. Antisemitism is a cancer. It spreads when leaders stay silent, and you must replace weakness with action.
“This didn’t happen in Australia, and something terrible happened there today: cold-blooded murder. The number of those murdered, sadly, grows, with each moment.”
GIDEON SA’AR, FOREIGN MINISTER OF ISRAEL
“I’m appalled by the murderous shooting attack at a Hanukkah event in Sydney, Australia.
“These are the results of the anti-Semitic rampage in the streets of Australia over the past two years, with the anti-Semitic and inciting calls of ‘Globalise the Intifada’ that were realized today.”
IRAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON, ESMAEIL BAGHAEI
“We condemn the violent attack in Sydney, Australia. The assassination and killing of human beings, wherever it occurs, is reprehensible and condemned.”
URSULA VON DER LEYEN, EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT
“Shocked by the tragic attack at Bondi Beach. I send my heartfelt condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.
“Europe stands with Australia and Jewish communities everywhere. We are united against violence, antisemitism and hatred.”
DONALD TUSK, PRIME MINISTER OF POLAND
“My deepest condolences to the families of the victims of the terrible terrorist attack at Bondi Beach in Sydney. Antisemitism, wherever it appears, leads to acts of crime. Today, Poland stands with Australia in this moment of grief.”
KAROL NAWROCKI, PRESIDENT OF POLAND
“I express my full condemnation of the terrorist attack in Sydney. I extend my condolences to the families of the victims of this unimaginable crime.”
SPANISH FOREIGN MINISTER JOSE MANUEL ALBARES
“Horrified by the terrorist attack in Australia against the Jewish community. My solidarity with the victims and their loved ones, with the people and government of Australia.
“Hate, antisemitism, and violence have no place in our societies.”
JONAS GAHR STOERE, PRIME MINISTER OF NORWAY
“I am shocked by the horrific attack at Bondi Beach, Australia, during a Jewish Hanukkah event.
“I condemn this despicable act of terror in the strongest possible terms. My deepest condolences to all those affected by today’s tragic attack.”
ULF KRISTERSSON, PRIME MINISTER OF SWEDEN
“Appalled by the attack in Sydney, targeted against the Jewish community.
“My thoughts are with the victims and their families. Together, we must fight the spread of antisemitism.”
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After Australia shooting, Jewish leaders say Mamdani’s refusal to condemn ‘globalize the intifada’ has consequences
The shooting attack targeting a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s popular Bondi Beach on the first night of Hanukkah, in which at least 15 people were killed, reignited sharp criticism of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s refusal to condemn the “globalize the intifada” slogan during the mayoral election.
“When you refuse to condemn and only ‘discourage’ use of the term ‘Globalize the Intifada,’ you help facilitate (not cause) the thinking that leads to Bondi Beach,” Deborah Lipstadt, a Holocaust historian and the State Department special envoy to combat and monitor antisemitism in the Biden administration, wrote on X in a post addressed to Mamdani.
Police said a father and son were behind the mass shooting in Australia, with authorities adding that they would need more time to determine a motive.
Mamdani, a supporter of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement against Israel, faced fierce backlash during the Democratic primary for defending the slogan used by some at the pro-Palestinian protests and perceived by many as a call for violence against Jews. After his surprise primary victory in June, Mamdani clarified that he understood why the phrase alarmed people and noted that it was not language he personally uses, but he declined to explicitly condemn it.
He later said he would “discourage” the use of that phrase after hearing from Jewish leaders who experienced the bus bombings during the Second Intifada in the early 2000s.
Lipstadt included a link to a June Politico article detailing Mamdani’s initial refusal to condemn the slogan.
Rabbi David Wolpe, the emeritus rabbi of Sinai Temple in Los Angeles and a harsh critic of Harvard’s handling of antisemitism on campus, wrote, “How about now, Mr. Mayor?” Republicans and Mamdani critics echoed the same sentiment.
New York City is home to the largest concentration of Jews in the United States.
Outgoing Mayor Eric Adams indirectly referenced the controversy during a press conference with Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch, who Mamdani has reappointed to serve in his administration. “That attack in Sydney is exactly what it means to ‘globalize the Intifada,’” Adams said. “We saw the actual application of the globalization of the intifada in Sydney.”
Reacting to Bondi Beach attack, Mayor Eric Adams says:
“That attack in Sydney is exactly what it means to ‘globalize the Intifada.’ We saw the actual application of the globalization of the intifada in Sydney…” pic.twitter.com/3EI3IZp3Dg
— Jacob N. Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) December 14, 2025
Mamdani issued a statement on Sunday, calling the attack in Sydney a “vile act of antisemitic terror” and “the latest, most horrifying iteration in a growing pattern of violence targeted at Jewish people across the world.” He said the deadly attack should be met with urgent action to counter antisemitism. He also reiterated his pledge to “work every day to keep Jewish New Yorkers safe — on our streets, our subways, at shul, in every moment of every day.”
A spokesperson for Mamdani didn’t immediately respond to comment on Lipstadt’s post.
In an interview aired Sunday, Mamdani responded to criticism from Rabbi Ammiel Hirsch, the senior rabbi of Stephen Wise Free Synagogue, who said after a meeting with Mamdani on Thursday that the mayor-elect’s refusal to recognize Israel specifically as a Jewish state could fuel antisemitism.
Hirsch, who also serves as president of the New York Board of Rabbis, was present at a 45-minute discussion with Mamdani as part of the mayor-elect’s outreach to Jewish leaders. Rabbi Joe Potasnik, executive vice president of the New York Board of Rabbis, said the conversation was “candid” and “constructive.”
“Rabbi Hirsch is entitled to his opinions,” Mamdani told CBS New York’s political reporter Marcia Kramer on her program The Point. “The positions that I’ve made clear on Israel and on Palestine, these are part of universal beliefs of equal rights and the necessity of it for all people everywhere.” He added, “My inability to say what Rabbi Hirsch would like me to say comes from a belief that every state should be of equal rights, whether we’re speaking about Israel or Saudi Arabia or anywhere in the world.”
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