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Iran Risks Severe Economic Downturn, Unrest as Renewed UN Sanctions Bite
People walk near a mural of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 23, 2025. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iran‘s economy is at risk of simultaneous hyperinflation and severe recession, officials and analysts say, as clerical rulers scramble to preserve stability with limited room to maneuver after a snapback of UN sanctions.
They followed a breakdown in talks to curb Iran‘s disputed nuclear activity and its ballistic missile program. Diplomacy to resolve the deadlock remains possible, both sides say, though Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rebuffed US President Donald Trump’s offer to forge a new deal.
Three senior Iranian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran believes the US, its Western allies, and Israel are intensifying sanctions to fuel unrest in Iran and jeopardize the very existence of the Islamic Republic.
Since the reimposition of UN sanctions on Sept. 28, multiple high-level meetings have been held in Tehran on how to avert economic collapse, circumvent sanctions, and manage simmering public anger, the officials told Reuters.
Deepening economic disparities between ordinary Iranians and a privileged clerical and security elite, economic mismanagement, galloping inflation, and state corruption – reported even by state media – have fanned discontent.
“The establishment knows protests are inevitable, it is only a matter of time … The problem is growing, while our options are shrinking,” said one of the officials.
Iran‘s leadership is leaning heavily on its “resistance economy” — a strategy of self-sufficiency and closer trade with China, Russia, and some regional states. Moscow and Beijing back Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and condemned US and Israeli strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June.
But analysts warn that such workarounds may not be enough to shield the sprawling country of 92 million people from the renewed economic blow.
“The impact of the UN sanctions will be severe and multifaceted, deepening the country’s longstanding structural and financial vulnerabilities,” said Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University near Washington.
“The government is struggling to maintain economic stability as sanctions disrupt banking networks, restrict trade and constrain oil exports – the country’s main revenue source, resulting in escalating social and economic pressure.”
OIL LIFELINE UNDER THREAT AS UN SANCTIONS RETURN
Iran has avoided wholesale economic meltdown since 2018 when, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers and reimposed US sanctions.
But the revival of wider UN sanctions is inflicting shocks that will stymie economic growth, accelerate inflation, and the collapse of the rial currency, pushing the economy toward a recessionary spiral, one of the Iranian officials said.
Iran’s economy contracted sharply after 2018 due to renewed US sanctions. It rebounded in 2020 to grow modestly at times, largely due to oil trade with China.
But the World Bank this month forecast a shrinkage of 1.7 percent in 2025 and 2.8 percent in 2026 – sharply down from the 0.7 percent growth it had projected in April for next year.
While Tehran still relies heavily on oil exports to China – its biggest customer and one of the few countries still doing business with it despite Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, doubts reign over the sustainability of that trade.
Although sold at a discount, crude remains a vital source of income for Tehran, with oil and petrochemicals making up about a quarter of GDP in 2024.
Despite public assurances that oil sales to China will continue, one Iranian official said the reimposed global sanctions could stifle that flow.
Shokri said that if China seeks to ease tensions with the Trump administration, it may tighten its stance on Iranian oil — demanding steeper discounts or cutting imports altogether.
For Tehran, the costs could be devastating. Every dollar shaved off the price of oil translates into roughly half a billion dollars in lost annual revenue, he said.
The rial has shriveled to 1,115,000 per dollar from 920,000 in August, stoking inflation to at least 40 percent and gutting purchasing power. Persistent currency depreciation and trade sanctions are driving up prices and sapping investor confidence.
HARDSHIP SPREADS, PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS
Few Iranians can escape the attendant hardships. A sense of desperation is rippling through society, affecting urban professionals, bazaar traders and rural farmers alike.
“How much more pressure are we supposed to endure? Until when? I’m a government employee, and I earn just 34 million tomans (around $300) a month,” said Alireza, 43, speaking by phone from the capital Tehran. Like others, he asked not to be further identified for fear of retribution from authorities.
“My wife is jobless. The import-export company she worked for shut down last month. With just my salary and two kids, we’re struggling to even pay rent and school expenses. What are we supposed to do?” ”
Iran’s official inflation rate is around 40 percent though some estimates exceed 50 percent. Official data in September showed prices for 10 staple goods – including meat, rice and chicken – rose 51 percent in one year. Housing and utility costs have also surged. Beef now costs $12 a kilo – too expensive for many families.
The clerical elite increasingly worry that mounting public distress could reignite mass protests that have erupted periodically since 2017 among lower- and middle-income Iranians, the second Iranian official said.
Many Iranians like Sima, 32, a factory worker in the central city of Shiraz worn down by years of economic strain, worry that the expanded sanctions will push them past the breaking point.
“Now they say we’re facing new sanctions again, but we’re already struggling to provide for our three children. Prices go up every single day and we can’t even afford to buy meat for them once a month,” said Sima.
Many business owners fear deeper international isolation and further Israeli airstrikes if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear standoff.
“With the constant fear of a possible attack and not knowing whether I’ll even be able to export this month or next, how am I supposed to keep my business running?” said Mehdi, who ships fruit to neighboring countries.
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650+ US rabbis sign letter opposing Zohran Mamdani and the ‘political normalization’ of anti-Zionism
(JTA) — As the New York mayoral election draws near, a group of 650 rabbis and cantors from across the United States have signed onto a letter voicing their opposition to mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani and the “political normalization” of anti-Zionism.
The letter, titled “A Rabbinic Call to Action: Defending the Jewish Future,” cited Mamdani’s previous defense of the slogan “globalize the Intifada,” his denial of “Israel’s legitimacy” and his accusations that Israel has committed a genocide in Gaza.
The letter quotes Rabbi Ammiel Hirsch, the leader of the Stephen Wise Free Synagogue on the Upper West Side, who told his congregants in a YouTube address last week that Mamdani’s rhetoric will “delegitimize the Jewish community and encourage and exacerbate hostility toward Judaism and Jews.”
Hirsch was also one of the signatories on the letter, which included a wide range of rabbis and cantors from over 30 states as well as Toronto. It was organized by the new Jewish Majority advocacy group, led by AIPAC veteran Jonathan Schulman.
About 60 rabbis across denominations in New York City signed on, including Rabbi Joshua Davidson of the Reform Temple Emanu-El on the Upper East Side, Rabbi David Ingber of the progressive synagogue Romemu on the Upper West Side and the 92nd Street Y and Rabbi Chaim Steinmetz of the Orthodox Congregation Kehilath Jeshurun on the Upper East Side.
Gerald Weider, a rabbi emeritus at Congregation Beth Elohim in Brooklyn, where Mamdani spoke earlier this month at the invitation of its current rabbi, also signed on.
Other influential rabbis across the country who signed on include the author and former leader of Los Angeles’ Conservative Sinai Temple Rabbi David Wolpe and Rabbi Denise Eger, the first openly LGBTQ+ rabbi to head the Central Conference of American Rabbis.
While New York City rabbis, including Hirsch, have previously voiced their opposition to endorsing candidates from the pulpit, that norm appears to have been set aside as Mamdani carves out a significant edge ahead of the Nov. 4 election.
The candidate has said Israel has a right to exist as a state with “with equal rights for all”; he has also said he would “discourage” the phrase “globalize the intifada,” acknowledging that it makes some Jews scared, and would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visited New York.
“We will not accept a culture that treats Jewish self-determination as a negotiable ideal or Jewish inclusion as something to be ‘granted,’” the letter says. “The safety and dignity of Jews in every city depend on rejecting that false choice.”
The letter quotes Rabbi Elliot Cosgrove of the Conservative Park Avenue Synagogue on the Upper East Side, who urged his congregants during a sermon last week not only to vote against Mamdani but to convince other Jews they know to do the same.
“We also call on our interfaith and communal partners to stand with the Jewish community in rejecting this dangerous rhetoric and to affirm the rights of Jews to live securely and with dignity,” the letter concluded. “Now is the time for everyone to unite across political and moral divides, and to reject the language that seeks to delegitimize our Jewish identity and our community.”
The post 650+ US rabbis sign letter opposing Zohran Mamdani and the ‘political normalization’ of anti-Zionism appeared first on The Forward.
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International Court of Justice says Israel must work with UN to deliver aid into Gaza
(JTA) — The International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion on Wednesday that Israel is legally obligated to work with the United Nations’ Palestinian relief agency to deliver aid into Gaza.
In its opinion, the ICJ rejected Israel’s justification for barring UNRWA, the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine, from operating in Israel in March, saying it was unable to prove that the agency was subject to “widespread infiltration” by Hamas.
While UNRWA still operates in Gaza, it has been unable to bring supplies into the enclave since the ban took effect.
“The occupying power may never invoke reasons of security to justify the general suspension of all humanitarian activities in occupied territory,” Judge Iwasawa Yuji said while delivering the opinion. “After examining the evidence, the court finds that the local population in Gaza Strip has been inadequately supplied.”
The ruling comes as top U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, are in Israel to monitor the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and lay the groundwork for improved humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
On Tuesday, Jared Kushner, who helped broker the deal, said there had been “surprisingly strong coordination” between the United Nations and Israel on delivering humanitarian aid into Gaza.
The ICJ, the United Nation’s top legal body, has no enforcement power. It ruled in January 2024 that South Africa’s claims that Palestinians are at risk of genocide were “plausible” but has not issued a ruling in that case.
The court’s opinion Wednesday passed in a vote of 10 to 1, with its Vice President Julia Sebutinde, who has previously ruled in favor of Israel, writing in her opinion that the court did not “sufficiently consider” UNRWA’s infiltration by Hamas.
Israel has long accused UNRWA employees of taking part in Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack. A UN investigation into the agency found that nine of its 13,000 workers “may have” participated in the attacks but no longer work for the agency.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry decried the ruling Wednesday in a post on X, writing that it “rejects the politicization of International Law.”
“Israel categorically rejects the ICJ’s ‘advisory opinion,’ which was entirely predictable from the outset regarding UNRWA,” the post read. “This is yet another political attempt to impose political measures against Israel under the guise of ‘International Law.’”
The post International Court of Justice says Israel must work with UN to deliver aid into Gaza appeared first on The Forward.
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Hamas to Ramp Up Brutal Crackdown on Gazans as New Israeli Data Shows Terror Group Still Heavily Armed
Hamas fighters on Feb. 22, 2025. Photo: Majdi Fathi via Reuters Connect
As new Israeli intelligence reveals that Hamas remains heavily armed despite severe losses during the two-year conflict in Gaza, the Palestinian terrorist group is intensifying its brutal crackdown on all opposition in the enclave.
Hamas still maintains a substantial stockpile of rockets and other weaponry, even after being severely weakened by Israel’s military campaign, according to information and estimates gathered by the Israeli defense establishment and shared with Hebrew media on Wednesday.
The newly released intelligence assessment, reported by Israel’s Channel 12 news, indicates that the Palestinian terrorist group is facing a major weapons shortfall, with over 60 percent of its military equipment lost, nearly half of its forces — including senior members — eliminated, and more than half of its above-ground infrastructure destroyed.
However, Israel believes that Hamas, despite suffering severe losses during the war, continues to operate more than half of its tunnels, with its underground infrastructure serving as the Islamist group’s main hub. Hamas also still has hundreds of rockets, some of them medium range, which can reach the center of Israel, and has more than 10,000 other weapons.
Meanwhile, Hamas is still bringing in recruits and has about 20,000 terrorists still active in the ranks of the organization. However, these are primarily fighters with little experience and competence, according to Israeli assessments, who have undergone only limited training, while the terrorist group’s elite Nukhba forces, which led the Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel, have struggled to replenish their decimated ranks.
Shortly after the US-backed ceasefire to halt fighting in Gaza took effect, Hamas moved to reassert control over the war-torn enclave and consolidate its weakened position by targeting Palestinians who it labeled as “lawbreakers and collaborators with Israel.”
According to Iranian media, Hamas is preparing to launch its largest operation yet to eliminate the remaining armed opposition groups “that continue to collaborate with the Israeli occupation forces.”
“In the coming days, we will launch our largest security campaign yet, targeting multiple areas where these groups remain,” a Hamas official told the Iranian state outlet Press TV.
“Our goal is to eliminate all collaborators and ensure peace and security for the people of Gaza,” he continued.
Since the ceasefire, which left the Israeli military in control of 53 percent of the enclave, took effect earlier this month, Hamas’s brutal crackdown has escalated dramatically, sparking widespread clashes and violence as the group moves to seize weapons and eliminate any opposition.
The terrorist group has publicly executed alleged collaborators and rival militia members in the 47 percent of Gaza that remains outside Israeli military control, an area where the majority of Gaza’s population still lives under Hamas’s authority.
BREAKING: Some reports suggest that Hamas has informed Egypt they’ve decided to stop the public executions of Palestinians in Gaza.
Let’s hope that’s true. pic.twitter.com/qFpJ7u3MhH
— Ihab Hassan (@IhabHassane) October 17, 2025
Social media videos widely circulated online show Hamas members brutally beating Palestinians, dragging them across the ground, and even breaking their legs or kneecapping them in an effort to terrorize the population.
Hamas continues to torture Palestinians in Gaza. Will anyone speak out about this? pic.twitter.com/AsogVjdyVn
— Eretz Israel (@EretzIsrael) October 22, 2025
Hamas officials have accused Israel and the United States of attempting to use these alleged “collaborators” and militias as proxies to undermine the group’s authority and destabilize Gaza following the ceasefire.
Last week, US President Donald Trump warned that he would support attacks on Hamas if the group continued its violent campaigns and public executions.
“If Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the Deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry also drew attention to Hamas’s escalating violence in Gaza, slamming the international community for its silence.
“Killings in public by Palestinian Hamas – and deafening silence from the ‘moral preachers.’ Do you hear the sound of the crickets?” the ministry wrote in a post on X.
Killings in public by Palestinian Hamas – and deafening silence from the “moral preachers”.
Do you hear the sound of the crickets? pic.twitter.com/CcnX94d39U— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) October 22, 2025
Meanwhile, Hamas leaders met with Qatari and Turkish officials in Doha on Tuesday to discuss the ongoing ceasefire and plans for rebuilding Gaza after the war.
As regional powers back reconstruction efforts in support of Trump’s peace plan, experts have warned about the expanding roles of Qatar and Turkey in such initiatives, amid concerns that their involvement could potentially strengthen Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure. Both countries have been key backers Hamas for years.
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at opposition to any involvement of Turkish security forces in monitoring the US-backed ceasefire in Gaza.