Uncategorized
How the ‘Experts’ Lost Credibility: 10 Predictions About Israel’s War That Fell Apart
Relatives and friends of Israeli hostage Alon Ohel, held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, react as they watch broadcasts related to his release as part of a hostages-prisoners swap and a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, in Lavon, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Rami Shlush
Israel’s founding prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, once quipped: “If an expert says it can’t be done, get another expert.”
While there are established facts no matter who says them, that wisdom has certainly been vindicated in the war that began with Hamas’ October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel.
Over the past two years, politicians, academics, journalists, and analysts – people routinely presented as “experts” – have issued dire predictions and sweeping moral judgments about Israel and its enemies. Again and again, they were wrong.
Here are ten examples.
1. The General Who Underestimated the IDF
Soon after October 7, a US three-star Marine lieutenant general assigned to advise Israel warned against a ground invasion, predicting Israel would lose 20 soldiers a day. His projection – over 14,000 fatalities – proved vastly exaggerated. The 918 IDF soldiers killed remain a national tragedy, but the prediction of catastrophic losses was, like many others, baseless.
2. The Hezbollah “Victory” That Never Came
On October 4, 2024, Samer Jaber, a PhD researcher at Royal Holloway University, wrote on Al Jazeera: “Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, but it can still win over Israel.” A year later, Hezbollah has been dismantled as a fighting force, and even Lebanon’s own government now regards it as an enemy.
3. The “World War III” Predictions
When Israel – and later the US – struck Iran in June 2025, media outlets including The Independent and The New York Times warned of “catastrophic consequences” and “the start of World War III.” The Iranian ambassador to France declared such a scenario inevitable. Yet instead of triggering global war, the strikes crippled Iran’s terror network and, in the absence of one of its primary sponsors, forced Hamas to accept a ceasefire.
4. The UN’s “14,000 Babies” Claim
In May 2025, Tom Fletcher, the UN’s humanitarian chief, told BBC Radio 4 that “14,000 babies will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” His words were repeated uncritically by The New York Times, NBC, ABC, TIME, and The Guardian. The prediction never materialized — and was proved to be a manipulation of other statistics — but the damage to Israel’s image did.
5. The Manufactured “Famine”
UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini repeatedly warned of an “imminent famine” in Gaza. Yet under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, famine can only be declared if three specific thresholds are crossed: 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, 30 percent of children suffer acute malnutrition, and two or more people per 10,000 die of hunger each day. None of those conditions was met. For Gaza’s population, that would mean over 400 starvation deaths daily – a figure not claimed even by Hamas.
6. The “Genocide Scholars”
Omer Bartov, a professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Brown University, declared in The New York Times: “I’m a genocide scholar. I know it when I see it.” He first accused Israel of genocide in December 2024 — months before the war’s end.
Yet Gaza’s population rose throughout the conflict as Israel consistently evacuated civilians from combat zones. Genocide requires intent to destroy; Israel’s intent was to protect. As HonestReporting board member Salo Aizenberg dryly noted, to become a member of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, “all you need is a credit card.”
7. The Misread ICJ Ruling
In May 2024, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt any actions in Rafah that could bring about the destruction of the Palestinian people in whole or in part. But major outlets — BBC, CNN, NBC, Newsweek — misreported it as a blanket ban on Israel’s Rafah operation. The IDF proceeded, eliminated Hamas’ last stronghold, and the supposed “violation” never materialized.
8. The “Restrained” Hamas
On the eve of the October 7 attack, Israel’s own National Security Adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, confidently described Hamas as “restrained.” Speaking privately on the afternoon of October 6, he noted that Hamas had stayed out of Israel’s recent clashes with Islamic Jihad and was focused on sending more Gazan workers into Israel. Sixteen hours later, Hamas invaded.
Hanegbi — fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu this week — had also told Maariv in September 2023, “I don’t see our enemies raring to fight, not in Lebanon, not in Gaza, and not in Syria.”
9. Did Hamas Choose Stability Over Jihad?
Historian and former deputy minister Michael Oren wrote after Operation Shield and Arrow in May 2023 that Hamas had “chosen social and financial stability over jihad.” In reality, Hamas’s “restraint” was strategic deception — a prelude to October 7. The calm wasn’t peace; it was preparation.
10. The Prophet of Doom
In May 2025, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman predicted Israel was “preparing to re-invade Gaza” and “advance annexation” in the West Bank. His headline read, “This Israeli Government Is Not Our Ally.” Six months later, President Trump declared the war over. There was no annexation, no mass expulsion — just another failed prophecy from the paper that rarely learns.
The Pattern: Expertise Without Accountability
From generals to journalists, UN officials to academics, the pattern is the same: overconfidence, distortion, and a lack of accountability when “expert” narratives collapse.
Ben-Gurion’s advice still stands: when an expert insists something can’t be done — or invents horrors that never were — it’s time to find another expert.
The author is the Executive Director of HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.
Uncategorized
US soldiers stationed in Kiryat Gat turn sleepy Israeli city into an unexpected hotspot
At one of Kiryat Gat’s main shopping complexes, U.S. Army camouflage does everything but blend in.
American troops in fatigues move between shawarma stands and sports-shoe stores, a new presence in the southern industrial city, part of a multinational civil-military coordination center set up to monitor the Gaza ceasefire. The center, housed in a converted logistics building about 15 miles from the Gaza border, opened last week with roughly 200 American personnel as well as smaller contingents from at least eight other countries.
By the weekend, the sight of Americans in uniform had become routine. “Big guys, all in perfect formation,” one shopkeeper at the BIG mall told the Walla news site, “like they came out of a Hollywood movie.”
Cafes, restaurants, and food delivery services have been “working around the clock” to accommodate the city’s new foreign guests. On social media, commenters called the deployment “a new world order,” noting that Kiryat Gat was trending for the first time in years — and not because of pop star Ninet Tayeb, still the city’s most famous export.
City officials have leaned into the moment. Mayor Kfir Swisa publicly welcomed the deployment, telling residents the personnel were “received with open arms,” framing the center as both a security asset and an unexpected local boon. Senior U.S. officials have visited the site in quick succession, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said U.S. ambassador to Yemen Steven Fagin would oversee the civilian side of operations, while U..S Central Command’s Adm. Brad Cooper would handle the military track, including Hamas’s disarmament.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks alongside Steve Witkoff, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the United States Central Command, and Jared Kushner, during a press conference following a military briefing at the Civilian Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025. (Nathan Howard for The New York Times)
During an interview on Channel 12’s current-affairs program, host Avri Gilad asked Swisa whether the arrival of the Americans had changed life in the city. Swisa replied that it “puts Kiryat Gat on the map,” adding that “now the Americans have also realized what many young Israelis already know” — that the city’s location near the cross-country Highway 6, its rail link, and its “rich cultural and sports scene” make it an appealing place to be.
Gilad cut in, “They didn’t come here for the sports life.” He went on to ask if there had been “any new love interests,” echoing online chatter about whether romances might bloom between U.S. soldiers and local women, before inquiring how many McDonald’s branches Kiryat Gat has.
“They haven’t asked for a hamburger yet,” Swisa said. “They’re enjoying the local Kiryat Gat food.”
The BIG shopping complex where the American soldiers have been spotted is in Carmei Gat, a neighborhood whose rapid growth prompted one mainstream Israeli newspaper to dub Kiryat Gat as the new capital of the Negev, overtaking Beersheba as the region’s commercial hub. A new housing agreement set to be signed later this week in the presence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will add 21,000 apartments in Carmei Gat, doubling Kiryat Gat’s size and making it one of the 10 largest cities in Israel.
The neighborhood is also home to evacuees from Nir Oz, the Gaza envelope kibbutz that was relocated there after being attacked on Oct. 7. One convenience store owner, Shai Avisror, himself displaced from Kibbutz Zikim, said anyone arriving in uniform gets a free coffee or cold drink.
“Soldiers are the holy of holies,” he told one reporter, though it’s unclear if the same rule applies to the Americans.
School kids welcome residence of Nir Oz as they arrive at the temporary housing location in Kiryat Gat on Jan. 2, 2024. (Ilia Yefimovich/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Not everyone shared Swisa’s enthusiasm, with some residents warning that the American presence would endanger the city. “Until now it was relatively quiet here, and now we have become a strategic target,” one commenter wrote. Another wrote that the deployment would give “Hamas, Iran and the Houthis a reason to launch missiles” at the city, and advised homeowners to start selling apartments quickly because “Kiryat Gat is about to become Ofakim” — a reference to the Gaza envelope town that was attacked on Oct. 7. A third commented that while the city now boasted “a U.S. command center,” it still lacked “a cinema, a vehicle-testing station, a pub or even one good restaurant open on weekends.”
He added, “Thank God we are on Highway 6 and can get away fast.”
One commenter went further, alleging that the Americans were “FEMA soldiers” forming a multinational force that would eventually replace the IDF and police “in preparation for a single world government,” a conspiracy theory tied to claims about “Agenda 2030.”
Much of the commentary reflected a broader unease over who is now directing events in Gaza. One user warned that “the Americans are only the beginning,” predicting “an airlift of Turkish and Indonesian soldiers soon and God knows who else they’ve sold us to.” Referring to Netanyahu as “Trump’s prime minister,” one commenter tied the moment to the dispute over the haredi draft, writing that with ultra-Orthodox men refusing to enlist, “there’s no choice now but to bring in American reinforcements.”
Netanyahu has said he would not allow the deployment of Turkish troops in Gaza and insisted that Israel remains fully sovereign, telling his cabinet that it “does not seek anyone’s approval” for actions carried out there.
Critics say the Kiryat Gat command center reflects a mismatch between its stated purpose and Israel’s main security priorities, focusing on humanitarian coordination and ceasefire maintenance rather than disarmament and anti-smuggling operations. Meir Ben Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy and a former national security adviser, wrote in the Israel Hayom daily that Israel “must eliminate the vagueness concerning headquarters and mediation and coordination entities” and explain what the center will actually contribute toward achieving Israel’s objectives in Gaza.
But for now, the relationship between the U.S. soldiers and their newly adopted city is still in a honeymoon period. An AI-generated video circulating on social media and shared by the city showed an American soldier speaking fluent Hebrew and praising Kiryat Gat’s “falafel, with tahina and amba — just delicious.”
—
The post US soldiers stationed in Kiryat Gat turn sleepy Israeli city into an unexpected hotspot appeared first on Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
Uncategorized
‘Not a Jew With Trembling Knees’: US Rep. Randy Fine Claps Back After Qatar Issues Letter Condemning Lawmaker
Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL) leaves the US Capitol after the last votes of the week on Sept. 4, 2025. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
US Rep. Randy Fine, a Jewish Republican from Florida, on Monday indicated he has no intention of backing down after receiving a sharp repudiation from the Qatari embassy in Washington following remarks he made suggesting Qatar was funding unrest on American college campuses and posing a threat through Muslim fighter pilots training in the United States.
In the two-page letter, Qatar’s ambassador to Washington, Meshal Al Thani, accused Fine of making “observations about Qatar that are not accurate,” after the Florida Republican’s appearance on “Loomer Unleashed,” the podcast hosted by Laura Loomer, a far-right activist and ally of US President Donald Trump.
Fine reportedly claimed that Qatar “funds most of the institutions that are damaging” the United States and is “responsible for” anti-Israel protests on US campuses. The ambassador strongly denied those assertions, citing US intelligence reports and congressional testimony that found no evidence linking Qatar to antisemitic incidents or unrest at American universities.
“Qatar condemns antisemitism, and all forms of religious or ethnic intolerance,” Al Thani wrote.
The letter emphasized that most of Qatar’s financial contributions to American universities fund the operating costs of six branch campuses in Doha, not US-based programs, and claimed that the country ranks 35th among foreign donors to American universities, behind Thailand, with $312.5 million in gifts.
Various reports, however, have found that Qatar, which the US government has designated as a “major non-NATO ally,” has in total given billions of dollars to US universities.
In June, for example, the Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism Policy (ISGAP) released a study showing that Georgetown University has received over $1 billion in funding from the Qatari government over the last two decades.
ISGAP found in a previous report that, from 2014-2019, Qatar gave American universities a striking $2.7 billion in undocumented funds, topping its list of foreign countries.
Doha has reportedly poured nearly $6 billion into US universities since 1981, making it the largest Arab donor in American higher education. Just between 2023 and 2024, it donated $527 million.
US lawmakers have grown increasingly critical of Qatari donations to American universities, expressing concern that such funding could influence academic discourse, especially since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel. Doha has backed the Palestinian terrorist group for years, providing Hamas with money and diplomatic support while hosting and sheltering its top leadership.
Beyond education, the Middle East Forum released its own report in May exposing the extent of Qatar’s far-reaching financial entanglements within American institutions, shedding light on what experts described as a coordinated effort to influence US policy making and public opinion in Doha’s favor. The findings showed that Qatar has attempted to expand its soft power in the US by spending $33.4 billion on business and real estate projects, over $6 billion on universities, and $72 million on American lobbyists since 2012.
Fine has also criticized the seemingly cozy relationship that Trump shares with Qatar, suggesting that the American leader has been too friendly to the monarchal country with deep ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
“Look, I trust President Trump’s judgment. And I think he has adopted the approach that by trying to embrace them, by trying to pull them and show them the benefits of working with America, he can get them to be a good actor on the world stage. But I am not a fan of Qatar. Let me be clear,” Fine said on “Loomer Unleashed.”
Trump has received criticism even from political allies regarding his relationship with and conduct toward Qatar. pointing to his highly controversial decision to accept a $400 million jet from the Qatari government.
Trump also raised eyebrows after allowing the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, to board Air Force One on Friday. Trump and the Qatari royal were pictured smiling and jovially chatting aboard the aircraft after it landed for refueling at Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the Middle East, on the way to Malaysia.
In the second page of the Qatari letter, the ambassador also addressed comments Fine made about Muslim fighter pilots training at a US Air Force base in Idaho, an arrangement Al Thani described as routine among American allies.
The ambassador added that Qatar’s F-15 purchases and training programs contribute “thousands of jobs” in the US defense sector and strengthen military cooperation between the two countries.
Al Thani further urged Fine to avoid conflating criticism of Qatar with fear of Muslims, noting that 3.5 million Muslims live in the United States — including 127,000 in Florida.
The letter closed on a diplomatic note, with Al Thani offering to answer any questions Fine might have about Qatar’s role as “an ally and friend of the United States,” referencing Qatar’s mediation in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release negotiated with US assistance.
The Algemeiner has reported in recent weeks about growing concern among Israel and other US allies in the Middle East that Qatar may use its influence to strengthen Hamas amid reconstruction efforts in Gaza.
Since entering the US Congress, Fine has established himself as an outspoken advocate for Israel and critic of Islam. Earlier this month, Fine posted online that “Dear of Islam is rational. Islamophobia is a lie.” He also wrote that Islam is not “compatible with American values” and has argued that radical Islam poses an existential threat to the United States and Jewish Americans in particular.
Uncategorized
British Airways breaks ties with Louis Theroux after interview with ‘Death to the IDF’ artist Bob Vylan
British Airways has dropped its sponsorship of documentarian Louis Theroux’s podcast following an interview with British punk musician Bobby Vylan where the artist defended his chants of “death, death to the IDF” at the Glastonbury music festival.
Following the band’s Glastonbury performance in June, the two members of Bob Vylan had their U.S. visas revoked by the State Department ahead of a planned tour this month. The BBC also said the livestream of the performance broke its guidelines because Bob Vylan’s chants could “fairly be characterised as antisemitic.”
Bob Vylan’s frontman, whose real name is Pascal Robinson-Foster, Theroux that he did not regret the chants during the interview.
“If I was to go on Glastonbury again tomorrow? Yeah, I would do it again. I’m not regretful of it,” said Vylan. “I’d do it again tomorrow, twice on Sundays. I’m not regretful of it at all. Like, the subsequent backlash that I’ve faced is minimal. It’s minimal compared to what people in Palestine are going through.”
Robinson-Foster also criticized a report by the Community Security Trust, British Jewry’s antisemitism watchdog, that found antisemitic incidents had spiked the day after Bob Vylan’s set, telling Theroux that it was unclear what the group was “counting as antisemitic.”
“I don’t think I have created an unsafe atmosphere for the Jewish community,” said Robinson-Foster. “If there were large numbers of people being like, going out and ‘Bob Vylan made me do this,’ then maybe I might go, woof, I’ve had a negative impact here. Again, in that report, what definition are they going by? We don’t know that.”
During the interview, Robinson-Foster also said that the “focus” should not have been placed on the “death to the IDF” chant, but rather “on the conditions that allow for that chant to exist.”
“Ultimately, the fight is against white supremacy, right?,” said Robinson-Foster. “That is what the fight is against. And I think white supremacy is displayed so vividly in Zionists.”
In response, Theroux replied, “They say we’re not white, we’re Jewish, right?”
Later, Theroux appeared to agree with Robinson-Foster’s assertion that the “Zionist movement and the war crimes being committed by Israel” should be viewed through the “lens of white supremacy.”
“I think I’d add to that, there’s an even more macro lens which you can put on it, which is that Jewish identity in the Jewish community, as expressed in Israel, has become almost like an acceptable quote, unquote, way of understanding ethno-nationalism,” said Theroux, later adding that “this sense of post-Holocaust Jewish exceptionalism or Zionist exceptionalism, has become a role model on the national stage for what these white identitarians would like to do in their own countries.”
Following the interview, Theroux drew criticism for failing to challenge Robinson-Foster’s defense of his chants during the interview.
“Louis Theroux has every right to interview whoever he wants, but with that right comes responsibility,” Jewish film producer Leo Pearlman told the British outlet Jewish News. “When you give a microphone to someone who proudly repeats a genocidal chant that played a part in inspiring attacks on Jews across Britain, you’re not probing hate, you’re amplifying it.”
Dave Rich, the head of policy at the Community Service Trust, wrote in a blog post that he had been distressed that Theroux did not note that Robinson-Foster had publicly undercut the idea that his chant of “death to the IDF” was not meant as a call to voice when he commented at another concert, “We are for an armed resistance. We wanna make that explicitly f–king clear.” Rich also criticized the decision to release the interview even after the attack on a Manchester, England, synagogue in which two people were killed on Yom Kippur.
“Theroux’s podcast was recorded before the Manchester attack, which he acknowledges in the introduction,” Rich wrote. “But they still went ahead and published it anyway, as if the death of two Jews due to an Israel-hating jihadist doesn’t change the context of an interview with someone who became famous for calling for death for Israelis.”
After the interview aired on Spotify last Friday, British Airways issued a statement to announce it had dropped its sponsorship of Theroux’s show.
“Our sponsorship of the series has now been paused and the advert has been removed,” the airline wrote in a statement shared with the British outlet Jewish News. “We’re grateful that this was brought to our attention, as the content clearly breaches our sponsorship policy in relation to politically sensitive or controversial subject matters.”
The episode follows the release, in April, of a documentary by Theroux titled “The Settlers” that served a searing portrayal of the far-right Israeli settler movement in the West Bank.
—
The post British Airways breaks ties with Louis Theroux after interview with ‘Death to the IDF’ artist Bob Vylan appeared first on Jewish Telegraphic Agency.

VP