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Trump is poised to reinforce Iran’s regime — despite Netanyahu’s pressure
President Donald Trump’s Wednesday meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took place with an air of urgency around Iran. Yet the men left their three-hour conclave without resolving a fundamental divergence: Israel is deeply suspicious of any agreement with the Islamic Republic, and Trump has a visible preference for keeping diplomacy alive.
So visible, in fact, that Trump announced on Truth Social after the meeting that negotiations with Iran will continue. Where does that leave Israel, which is deeply concerned that Trump, in search of a quick win, will go for a deal that eases sanctions — strengthening the Iranian regime at precisely the time when it seems brittle enough to fall? And what about Iranian critics of the regime, who have good reason to feel betrayed by an American president who encouraged them to protest, and now seems poised to pursue accommodation with the authorities who had protesters killed en masse?
Of course, nothing in the Trump era can be analyzed with absolute certainty. Strategic misdirection is a recognized feature of even normal statecraft, and Trump has elevated unpredictability into something close to doctrine. Yet even allowing for that ambiguity, the meeting made clear that Israel and the United States are not aligned on an absolutely key issue — a potentially perilous state of affairs.
What does Israel want?
Israel does not trust the Iranian regime, for myriad reasons. The Islamic Republic’s missile programs, its sponsorship of proxy militias, and its long record of hostility toward Israel are viewed as elements of a single strategic problem.
Because of that deep and deeply justified mistrust, Israel is wary of any deal that might stabilize or legitimize the regime — a risk raised by Trump’s interest in a new nuclear deal. Israeli leaders are concerned about long-term risk. A renewed agreement focused narrowly on nuclear restrictions would almost inevitably entail sanctions relief or broader economic normalization. Such measures, from Jerusalem’s perspective, would strengthen the very Iranian system that has spent decades spreading havoc across the region.
That doesn’t mean Israel would prefer immediate military confrontation, or that it will speak out against any deal. An agreement that would dismantle Iran’s expanding missile range, including systems capable of reaching Europe, and cut funding from its network of allied armed groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad — would possibly be of interest. Trump has so far not publicly stressed those demands.
Israel is politically divided, but when it comes to Iran, a broad consensus cuts across political lines. The regime must fall or radically change, for the sake of human rights within Iran’s borders, and that of a healthy regional future outside them.
What does Trump want?
The American position is less straightforward, largely because it is filtered through Trump’s distinctive political style, and his limited regional knowledge. Trump often appears unbothered by expert and public opinion; he seeks drama, through visible wins, deals, and dramatic reversals. He will present any outcome as an amazing achievement that no predecessor could have hoped for — even if he ends up signing an agreement that looks quite a lot like former President Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, which he walked away from in 2018.
Trump’s broader worldview might provide insight. Unlike earlier American administrations that explicitly championed democracy promotion, with mixed results, Trump’s national security posture has consistently downplayed ideological missions. His rhetoric and policy frameworks have reflected skepticism toward efforts to reshape other societies’ political systems, instead emphasizing transactional relationships and the avoidance of prolonged entanglements.
This orientation is reinforced by his political base. A significant segment of MAGA-aligned voters wants a more isolationist foreign policy. Within that framework, negotiations that promise de-escalation and risk reduction are politically attractive. Military confrontation, by contrast, carries unpredictable costs.
Trump’s posture, oscillating between threats of force and enthusiasm for negotiation, reflects the strange truth that American political alignments on Iran defy traditional expectations, with hawkishness losing favor on the right. He has preserved the military option while simultaneously projecting optimism about a deal. Meanwhile, a huge and growing armada is parked in the waters near Iran.
What does Iran want?
Assessing Iranian intentions is notoriously difficult. The regime’s history of opaque decision-making, tactical deception, and disciplined negotiation complicates any definitive reading.
Yet certain baseline assumptions are reasonable. First, the regime seeks survival. Whatever ideological ambitions authorities may harbor, self-preservation remains paramount. Sanctions relief, economic stabilization, and reduced risk of direct confrontation with the U.S. all serve that objective.
Second, Iran is unlikely to accept a permanent prohibition on uranium enrichment, particularly at civilian levels. Tehran has consistently framed demands for “zero enrichment” as infringements on sovereignty — a defensible position under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Third, the regime has strong incentives to resist constraints on its missiles and militias, even though the militias are completely indefensible. But the regime exists, essentially, to export jihad, and those groups have been a central pillar of Iran’s project for decades.
Could the Iranian regime be brought down?
This question lurks behind every discussion of Iran, though policymakers rarely address it directly. Regime change, while rhetorically invoked at times, presents immense practical challenges. Many observers doubt that aerial strikes alone could produce political collapse. Modern regimes, particularly those with entrenched security apparatuses, rarely disintegrate solely under external bombardment. Iran’s leadership has demonstrated resilience under severe economic and military pressure, maintaining internal control despite periodic unrest.
That means meaningful regime destabilization would almost certainly require fractures within the state’s military, intelligence, and security forces, or coordinated ground dynamics that external actors can neither easily predict nor control. Such scenarios introduce enormous risks, including civil conflict, regional spillover and severe disruptions to global energy markets.
The regime’s brutality may reinforce its durability. A leadership willing to impose extreme domestic repression is less vulnerable to popular pressure than one constrained by public accountability. Last month Trump suggested the U.S. would support the protesters; that pledge appears to no longer be on his radar. The protesters were not seeking a better nuclear deal — which is now his apparent sole focus — but better lives.
So what happens now?
All of this suggests that Israel will be unhappy with any outcome to this period of tensions. It is much less likely that pressure from Trump will bring real reform to the Iranian regime is than that Trump will sign off on a deal that seems counter to Israel’s long-term interests.
In the coming days, it may become clearer whether Netanyahu persuaded Trump to expand the scope of negotiations to include Iran’s missile program and its network of proxy militias. It is also possible that talks will collapse, and that military action will follow.
But this much is clear: If the regime survives intact and is strengthened in the process, that would be a profound tragedy. For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has oppressed its own people while exporting instability across the Middle East. That is roughly the same span of time that communism endured in Eastern Europe before popular unrest finally brought it down.
Only a month ago, there was a palpable sense that the Iranian people were courageously pressing for a similar reckoning. To reward a weakened and discredited regime at such a moment by helping it stabilize itself — in exchange for promises about uranium enrichment alone — would be a historic missed opportunity.
The post Trump is poised to reinforce Iran’s regime — despite Netanyahu’s pressure appeared first on The Forward.
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Rubio Says ‘Historic’ Israel-Lebanon Talks Should Outline Framework for Peace
Smoke rises after an Israeli strike, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, in southern Lebanon, March 24, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a rare meeting between Israeli and Lebanese envoys in Washington on Tuesday, saying he hoped the two countries would agree to a framework for a peace process, even as Israel pressed its war on Hezbollah.
The two countries went into their first direct negotiations since 1983 with conflicting agendas, with Israel ruling out discussion of a ceasefire and demanding Beirut disarm Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon that seeks Israel’s destruction.
But the presence of Rubio, President Donald Trump’s top diplomat and national security adviser, signaled Washington’s desire to see progress.
CRITICAL JUNCTURE IN MIDDLE EAST CRISIS
The meeting comes at a critical juncture in the conflict in the Middle East, a week into a fragile ceasefire between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Iran says Israel‘s campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon must be included in any agreement to end the wider war, complicating talks mediated by Pakistan aimed at averting further economic fallout.
The conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 has led to a major oil supply disruption, piling pressure on Trump to find an off-ramp.
Rubio opened the meeting between Israel‘s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, and his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, saying he hoped the talks could begin a process to permanently end the conflict in Lebanon and prevent Hezbollah, which he called a “terrorist proxy of Iran,” from threatening Israel.
The meeting marked a rare encounter between representatives of governments that have remained technically in a state of war since the modern state of Israel was established in 1948.
“This is a process, not an event. This is more than just one day. This will take time, but we believe it is worth this endeavor, and it’s a historic gathering that we hope to build on. And the hope today is that we can outline the framework upon which a permanent, lasting peace can be developed,” Rubio said.
Rubio was hosting Tuesday’s talks amid questions over his lack of in-person participation in talks with Iran, with the Republican president sending Vice President JD Vance to Islamabad over the weekend to lead the US negotiations.
Rubio was with Trump in Florida watching a mixed martial arts event as Vance announced in Pakistan that talks with the Iranians had concluded with no breakthrough.
State Department Counselor Michael Needham, US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, and US ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, a personal friend of Trump, were also participating in the talks on Tuesday.
LEBANON SEEKS CEASEFIRE
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in a statement on X as the meeting started that he hoped it would “mark the beginning of ending the suffering of the Lebanese people in general, and the southerners in particular.”
The Lebanese government led by Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has called for negotiations with Israel despite objections from Hezbollah, reflecting worsening tensions between the Shi’ite Muslim group and its opponents.
Hezbollah opened fire in support of Tehran on March 2, sparking an Israeli offensive that has killed more than 2,000 people and forced 1.2 million from their homes, according to Lebanese authorities. Most of those killed have been Hezbollah terrorists, according to Israeli tallies.
Lebanese officials have said Moawad only has authority to discuss a ceasefire in Tuesday’s meeting.
But Israeli government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian said Israel would not discuss a ceasefire.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told reporters in Jerusalem ahead of the meeting that talks would focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah, which he said must take place before Israel and Lebanon could sign any peace agreement and normalise relations.
He said Hezbollah was a problem for Israel‘s security and Lebanon‘s sovereignty that needed to be addressed to move relations to a different phase. “We want to reach peace and normalization with the state of Lebanon,” he said.
The Lebanese state has been seeking to disarm Hezbollah peacefully since a war between the terrorist group and Israel in 2024. Efforts by Lebanon to disarm it by force risk igniting conflict in a country shattered by civil war from 1975 to 1990. Moves against Hezbollah by a Western-backed government in 2008 prompted a short civil war.
The current government banned Hezbollah’s military wing after it opened fire on Israel last month.
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Italy Suspends Defense Cooperation Deal With Israel as Trump Turns on Meloni
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni listens to debate, after she reported on her government’s actions and is expected to speak on the latest developments in Iran, at the lower house of Parliament in Rome, Italy, April 9, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Remo Casilli
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Tuesday her government had suspended a defense cooperation deal with Israel, reflecting frayed ties between previously close allies as the conflicts in the Middle East continue.
Meloni‘s right-wing government has been one of Israel‘s closest friends in Europe, but in recent weeks it has criticized its attacks on the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which have killed hundreds and injured thousands.
Israel also fired warning shots last week at Italian troops serving in Lebanon under a UN mandate, causing damage to a vehicle.
“When there are things we don’t agree with, we act accordingly,” Meloni told reporters on the sidelines of a wine fair in Verona, northern Italy.
“In light of the current situation, the government has decided to suspend the automatic renewal of the defense agreement with Israel,” she added.
Meloni‘s announcement marked another diplomatic realignment for her right-wing government, coming a day after she criticized another close ally, US President Donald Trump, for his attacks on Pope Leo.
A source close to the matter, who requested anonymity, said Meloni took the decision on Monday with her foreign and defense ministers, Antonio Tajani and Guido Crosetto, as well as Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.
Israel‘s foreign ministry played down the consequences.
“We have no security agreement with Italy. We have a memorandum of understanding from many years ago that has never contained any substantive content. This will not affect Israel‘s security,” it said in a statement.
MELONI CHANGES TACK
Meloni has been in power since 2022 and will face a general election by late 2027.
“It’s a repositioning,” Lorenzo Castellani, political historian at Rome’s Luiss University, told Reuters.
“She’s afraid that a sizeable portion of the electorate, even among the center-right, will become highly critical of Trump and Netanyahu and of the effects of this war on Iran on the economy,” he added, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
Italy’s opposition parties had long called for a stop to the deal with Israel.
Signed in 2003 by the government of then Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the memorandum entered into force in 2006 and was subject to automatic renewals every five years unless one of the parties withdraws.
It spans fields including procurement, training and the “import, export, and transit of defense and military equipment.”
As diplomatic tensions have risen, Rome last week summoned the Israeli ambassador to protest over the incident involving Italian troops in Lebanon. Then on Monday, Netanyahu’s government summoned the Italian ambassador “to discuss the situation in Lebanon.”
TRUMP TURNS ON MELONI
Meanwhile, Trump told an Italian newspaper on Tuesday that Meloni lacks courage and has let Washington down.
Meloni had been a vociferous supporter of Trump, but she distanced herself from him after he went to war with Iran in February, and on Monday she openly criticized him for lashing out at Pope Leo, saying his verbal assault was “unacceptable.”
Trump responded in an interview with Corriere della Sera, saying Meloni was “very different from what I thought” and denouncing her for refusing to help re-open the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by Iran.
“I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage. I was wrong,” he was quoted as saying in the Italian-language article.
The White House declined to comment on the reported quotes. Meloni‘s office also declined to comment, but politicians of all stripes rallied to her defense, including Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, head of the coalition Forza Italia party.
“We are, and will remain, sincere supporters of Western unity and steadfast allies of the United States, but that unity is built on loyalty, respect, and mutual frankness,” he said, applauding Meloni for denouncing Trump‘s attack on the pope.
Trump‘s criticism marked a dramatic change in tone toward Meloni, the only European leader to attend his inauguration in 2025 and whom he had hailed as “a great leader” just one month ago.
On Tuesday he accused her of failing to back US efforts to tackle Iran’s nuclear program and guarantee energy flows through the Gulf, saying she wanted America “to do the job for her.”
Asked about her condemnation of his comments on Pope Leo, he said: “She is the one who is unacceptable, because she does not care whether Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow Italy up in two minutes if it had the chance.”
The reprimand capped a tumultuous month for Meloni, who lost a crunch referendum on judicial reform in March and then saw her political ally Viktor Orban ousted from power in Hungary.
The US-Israeli war in the Gulf threatens to upend the economy with surging energy costs and is hugely unpopular with Italians, putting Meloni on a collision course with Trump.
Seeking to distance herself from the conflict, she refused to let US fighters use an airbase in Sicily for combat operations in Iran last month, before suspending the military cooperation pact with Israel this week.
Trump said the surge in energy prices should have encouraged Italy, which is heavily dependent on oil and gas imports, to help re-open the Strait of Hormuz.
“They pay the highest energy costs in the world and are not even ready to fight for the Strait of Hormuz … They depend on Donald Trump to keep it open,” Trump said.
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US, Iran May Resume Talks This Week Despite Port Blockade
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. Photo: REUTERS
Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports.
Gulf, Pakistani, and Iranian officials also said negotiating teams from the US and Iran could return to Pakistan later this week, though one senior Iranian source said no date had been set.
“You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” Trump was quoted as saying in an interview with the New York Post.
While the US blockade drew angry rhetoric from Tehran, signs that diplomatic engagement might continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 on Tuesday.
The highest-level talks between the two adversaries since the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended in Islamabad without a breakthrough, raising doubts over the survival of a two-week ceasefire that still has a week to run.
Since the United States and Israel began the war on Feb. 28, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to nearly all vessels except its own, saying passage would be permitted only under Iranian control and subject to a fee. Nearly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies previously flowed through the narrow waterway, making the fallout widespread.
In a countermeasure, the US military said it began blocking shipping traffic in and out of Iran‘s ports on Monday. Tehran has threatened to hit naval ships going through the strait and to retaliate against its Gulf neighbors’ ports.
IMF CUTS GROWTH OUTLOOK
US Central Command said the blockade of Iranian ports involved more than 10,000 US military personnel, more than a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft.
“During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the US blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman,” CENTCOM said in a statement posted on X.
Shipping data showed the blockade had made little difference to Strait of Hormuz traffic on Tuesday, with at least eight ships crossing the waterway.
The latest standoff has further clouded the outlook for global energy security and the supply of goods that rely on petroleum.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook and said the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and oil stays above $100 per barrel into 2027.
The International Energy Agency slashed its forecasts for global oil supply and demand growth, saying both are now expected to fall from 2025 levels.
The US’ NATO allies including Britain and France said they would not be drawn into the conflict by taking part in the blockade, although they have offered to help safeguard the strait by drawing together a defensive multilateral mission to assist when an agreement is in place.
China, the main buyer of Iranian oil, said the US blockade was “dangerous and irresponsible” and would only aggravate tensions.
PROPOSAL FOR 20-YEAR SUSPENSION OF NUCLEAR ACTIVITY
US Vice President JD Vance, who led Washington’s delegation in Pakistan, has said Trump was adamant that any enriched nuclear material must be removed from Iran and a mechanism be established to verify that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.
A source briefed on the matter confirmed reports that the US had proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity by Iran “with all sorts of restrictions.”
Two Iranian sources said Iran had rejected the proposal, suggesting a halt of just three to five years.
One source involved in the negotiations in Pakistan said backchannel talks since the weekend had produced good progress in closing the gap on the nuclear issue, bringing the two sides closer to a deal that could be put forward at a new round of talks.
Complicating Pakistan’s mediation efforts, Israel has continued targeting Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel and the United States say that campaign is not covered by the ceasefire, while Iran has insisted it is.
Israeli and Lebanese envoys were to meet in Washington on Tuesday in a rare encounter also expected to be attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Lebanon’s government has sought negotiations with Israel despite objections from Hezbollah.
Israel continued to target Hezbollah after the Iran ceasefire was announced last week, but later said it was willing to discuss a separate ceasefire with the Lebanese government.
Regarding Iran, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told reporters in Jerusalem on Tuesday: “We will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons … The enriched materials must be removed from Iran.”
CEASEFIRE STILL HOLDING
With the war unpopular at home and rising energy prices causing political blowback, Trump paused the US-Israeli bombing campaign last week after threatening to destroy Iran‘s bridges and power grid unless it reopened the strait.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from April 10 to 12 after the ceasefire was announced showed that 35% of Americans approve of US strikes against Iran, down from 37% a week earlier.
The ceasefire has largely held over its first week despite sharp rhetoric from both sides.
An Iranian military spokesperson called any US restrictions on international shipping “piracy,” while Trump said that Iran‘s navy had been “completely obliterated” and that only a small number of “fast-attack ships” remained.
“Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED,” Trump wrote on social media.