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A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Friday, July 19, that Gaza ceasefire talks are “inside the 10-yard line” raised hope (again) for an end to the 9-month Israel-Hamas conflict.
Overlooked in the excitement about a possible ceasefire, however, is the impact that it will have on Israel’s other nine-month conflict. The achievement of a ceasefire in Gaza places Israel in a challenging predicament vis-à-vis its conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, and creates other problems if the ceasefire allows Hamas to stay in power.
On October 8, Hezbollah launched an unprovoked attack on Israel. The attack started an almost daily cycle of violence. Hezbollah launches a barrage of rockets, missiles, or drones at northern Israel — the latest being the attack on Majdal Shams that claimed the lives of 12 children. Israel then responds by shooting them down, targeting the launch areas, and attempting to thwart future attacks by killing militia members and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression is an attempt to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has linked their violence in northern Israel to the Israeli violence in Gaza. The militia declared their attacks to be an act of solidarity with Hamas, and the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite mounting casualties and the gradual degradation of its capabilities by Israel, the militia remains undeterred. Hezbollah’s leadership repeatedly vows to continue their attacks until Israel ends its operations in Gaza. In other words, northern Israel will not experience quiet until the people of Gaza experience quiet.
Although a ceasefire in Gaza would be a welcome development, it would produce a problematic outcome for Israel along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah would be empowered. It would survive its assault on Israel just as Hamas presumably would. And a dangerous precedent would be created.
By virtue of a Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah would suspend its operations against Israel. The suspension of aggression via the ceasefire allows Hezbollah to claim a victory of sorts. The militia did not succumb to Israeli attacks; rather, it maintained solidarity with Gaza until Israel was “forced” to agree to a ceasefire.
A Gaza ceasefire allows Hezbollah to go unpunished for attacking Israel. An unpunished Hezbollah is an undeterred Hezbollah. An undeterred Hezbollah believes in its actions from the last nine months — that they succeeded, and can and will work in the future. The militia will expand its weapons stockpiles, further entrench itself along the Israeli border, and continue to insert itself into future outbreaks of violence between Israel and Palestinians. And when conflict breaks out again between Israel and Palestinian factions in the West Bank or Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel again and declare it another act of solidarity.
A Gaza ceasefire enables Hezbollah to inform the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia can influence the scope and its intensity. Going forward, Israel can expect to fight on not one but two fronts (Palestinian areas and against Hezbollah). Israel will have to make additional calculations and preparations every time it engages Palestinian elements, because of Hezbollah’s linkage to the conflict.
A Gaza ceasefire also aids Hezbollah’s long-term objective.
The terrorist militia envisions a Middle East without Israel. The willingness of the militia to continue to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas is not just about ending the fighting and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s intervention is also about making Israel increasingly unlivable. Hezbollah wants to squeeze the life and prosperity out of Israel. And, of course, Hezbollah is funded by Iran, which makes Israel’s eradication one of its primary missions.
Hezbollah’s aggression is intended to make Israelis leave the area. They believe that over time, an atmosphere of insecurity and disruption will become more pronounced and affect a growing number of Israelis. As the quality of life in Israel suffers, intolerance for the status quo will grow. Slowly citizens might begin to abandon Israel. Eventually, parts of Israel could resemble little more than a military outpost manned by soldiers in a hostile environment.
The last nine months foreshadowed Hezbollah’s long-term objective. Tens of thousands of Israelis from northern Israel have endured extended displacement, and some residents have relocated. Displacement for some will endure after Israel announced on July 24 the postponement of the upcoming school year in areas located near the Israeli-Lebanese border. Businesses in northern Israel have slowed or closed due to a lack of labor, consumers, and insecurity. The circumstances have harmed the quality of life in northern Israel, and Israel’s overall economy.
And if Israel responds more forcefully to these rocket attacks and prevents Hezbollah from seeing the past nine months as a victory, that will be another public relations headache for Israel. Israel already encounters criticism and pressure for its alleged “transgressions” of international law in Gaza. The criticism and pressure will be compounded by taking offensive action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli relations with Europe, Canada, and elements of the US Democratic Party will experience further strain. Europe, Canada, and some Democrats view the absence of violence produced by a ceasefire as the forerunner to security and co-existence. But that is delusional thinking.
Hezbollah is not interested in recognizing Israel, and living side by side with it. The liberal and progressive elements in Europe, Canada, and the United States fail to take seriously the absolutist objectives espoused by Hezbollah, the militia’s ongoing actions, and the growing threat it poses to Israel.
It is in the interests of Israel to keep the Hamas-Palestinian conflict as separate as possible from its conflict with Hezbollah. Failure to do so complicates an already challenging situation. Under the current circumstances, the much-discussed and anticipated ceasefire in Gaza creates a catch 22 for Israel in its dealings with Hezbollah.
Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. He tweets at @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.
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Argentine Jews Express Outrage After Venezuela’s Maduro Blasts Argentina Government as ‘Nazi and Zionist’
The Jewish community in Argentina lambasted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro this week after he described Argentina’s government as “Nazi and Zionist” while addressing on ongoing dispute between the two countries over the arrest of an Argentine military officer in Venezuela.
“A terrorist like this famous Argentine has been captured. The Nazi and Zionist government of Argentina wants us to award him a decoration,” Maduro said during an event on Wednesday in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital.
Maduro was addressing the situation of Nahuel Gallo, a corporal in Argentina’s Gendarmería security force who was arrested in Venezuela last month and charged with terrorism. The socialist Venezuelan government accused Gallo of “being part of a group of people who tried to commit destabilizing and terrorist acts [in Venezuela] with the support of international far-right groups.”
Argentina is currently governed by the right-wing administration of President Javier Milei, whose security minister, Patricia Bullrich, described the charges as “another lie” by Venezuela’s government and said that Gallo should be returned to Argentina “immediately.”
Gallo’s relatives said that he had traveled to Venezuela to visit his wife, who is Venezuelan and was reportedly in the country to spend time with her mother.
Venezuela broke diplomatic relations with Argentina in August after Milei and several other Latin American leaders refused to recognize Maduro’s reelection in July. While Argentina’s diplomats were expelled, some Venezuelan opposition activists, who had sought refuge at the ambassador’s residence to avoid arrest, have since then remained in the building, having been denied safe passage in Venezuela and seeking political asylum in Argentina.
On Monday, Maduro accused Gallo of being part of a plot to assassinate his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. The next day, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said that Gallo is being held “hostage” by Maduro’s government.
Against this backdrop, Argentina’s Jewish umbrella organization, the Delegation of Argentine Israelite Associations (DAIA), on Thursday released a statement slamming Maduro for using the term “Nazi and Zionist” to describe their government.
“In the context of the conflict with Argentina over the gendarme Nahuel Gallo detained in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro called the government of our country ‘Nazi and Zionist.’ The phrase not only trivializes the tragedy of the Holocaust, diminishing its importance and impact, but also refers to Zionism as a disqualifying insult, even though it represents the legitimate existence of the State of Israel,” the DAIA said in its statement.
“At the same time,” the group continued, “it reveals the violent characteristics of the dictatorial regime that has subjected the Venezuelan people to slavery for years. It does so by exercising terror and oppression on those who fight to reestablish the path of democracy. DAIA condemns Maduro’s violent expressions and expresses its support for those who seek to live in a free and pluralistic society in which human rights are respected.”
Maduro has regularly used antisemitic rhetoric during his time in power in Venezuela. In August, for example, he blamed “international Zionism” for the protests against his reign following the country’s July 28 elections after which he claimed victory despite widespread suspicions of foul play.
The “extremist right,” referring to his opposition, “is supported by international Zionism,” Maduro claimed in an address at the time. “All the communication power of Zionism, who controls all social networks, the satellites, and all the power behind this coup d’état.”
Deborah Lipstadt, the US special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, called Maduro’s claims “absurd,” “antisemitic,” and “unacceptable.”
Maduro has been in power since 2013 and has overseen a dramatic economic decline in Venezuela. Redirecting personal failures as the fault of Jews, or, in this case, “international Zionism,” has long been a tactic of antisemites looking for a scapegoat.
Protests and unrest erupted in Venezuela after the presidential election in July, when Maduro’s government was accused by his political opposition, outside observers, and foreign governments of committing fraud to secure a victory.
Nonetheless, Maduro on Friday began his third term as Venezuela’s president, despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referring to his “illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela” as a “desperate attempt” to seize power.
“The Venezuelan people and world know the truth — Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency,” Blinken said in a statement. “The United States rejects the National Electoral Council’s fraudulent announcement that Maduro won the presidential election and does not recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela.”
Edmundo González Urrutia should have been sworn in as the Venezuelan president, according to the US State Department.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar agreed, posting on X/Twitter that the Jewish state “expresses concern over the political persecution and arbitrary arrests by the regime and joins the call of many in the international community to restore freedom and democracy in Venezuela.”
“Today, Jan. 10, Edmundo González Urrutia, the elected president of Venezuela, who won the presidential elections by a significant majority, was supposed to be inaugurated,” Sa’ar added. “However, the election results are not being respected, and his inauguration is not taking place. The ruler, Nicolás Maduro, an ally of Iran, must honor the will of the people in his country.”
In Argentina, meanwhile, Milei has expressed admiration for Judaism and support for Israel. He appointed Rabbi Axel Wahnish, who has served as his spiritual advisor for the last two years, as Argentina’s ambassador to Israel and has studied Torah and other Jewish texts. The Catholic Milei has previously said that were it not for the duties of his office, which require him to work on the Sabbath and on Jewish holidays, he would convert to Judaism.
Argentina has become a key player in organizing efforts to combat antisemitism in recent months. In July, for example, more than 30 countries led by the United States adopted “global guidelines for countering antisemitism” during a gathering of special envoys and other representatives from around the globe in Argentina.
The gathering came one day before Argentina’s Jewish community commemorated the 30th anniversary of the 1994 targeted bombing of the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Milei promised to right decades of inaction and inconsistencies in the investigations into the attack.
In April, Argentina’s top criminal court blamed Iran for the attack, saying it was carried out by Hezbollah terrorists responding to “a political and strategic design” by Iran.
Iran is the chief international sponsor of Hamas, providing the terror group with weapons, funding, and training.
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Tlaib Sports Palestinian Keffiyeh at Carter Funeral, Thanks Late President for ‘Speaking Out Against Apartheid’
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), one of the most strident opponents of Israel in Congress, wore a Palestinian keffiyeh to the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter, commemorating the late American leader’s advocacy against so-called “apartheid” in the Jewish state.
“Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace,” Tlaib posted on X/Twitter, along with a picture of her keffyeh.
Rest in peace, President Jimmy Carter. It was an honor to be there with your family. I wore my Palestinian keffiyeh to show my gratitude for your courageous stance in speaking out against apartheid and standing up for peace. pic.twitter.com/Vf0XLN2BtJ
— Rashida Tlaib (@RashidaTlaib) January 9, 2025
The keffiyeh, a traditional Arab headscarf, has become known as a symbol of solidarity with the Palestinian cause and opposition to Israel since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in October 2023.
High-profile politicians, including all five living US presidents, attended Carter’s funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC on Thursday. The former president died on Dec. 29, 2024 at 100 years old due to heart failure.
Over the past couple of decades, Carter’s public commentary on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has ruffled feathers among supporters of the Jewish state. In 2006, Carter raised eyebrows after publishing a book titled, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid, which condemned Israel for constructing settlements in the West Bank and accused the Jewish state of constructing a racially-discriminatory political regime.
In 2009, Carter traveled to the Middle East and held meetings with leaders of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Critics noted that he did not criticize Hamas leadership during his meeting and praised the terrorists as being “frank and honest.”
In 2015, Carter further incensed proponents of the Jewish state when he seemingly defended senior Hamas leader Khaled Mashal and argued that the terrorist group was not an obstacle to peace in the region.
“I don’t believe that [Mashal’s] a terrorist. He’s strongly in favor of the peace process,” Carter said at the time.
“I don’t see that deep commitment on the part of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to make concessions which [former Prime Minister] Menachem Begin did to find peace with his potential enemies,” Carter continued.
Since entering Congress, Tlaib has positioned herself as one of the most vocal anti-Israel critics in US politics. Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman to serve in the House of Representatives, has repeatedly used her platform to lodge condemnations against Israel.
The congresswoman has accused Israel of committing “apartheid” against Palestinians. In the year following Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, Tlaib has smeared the Jewish state’s defensive military operations as a “genocide,” calling on US President Joe Biden to force a “ceasefire” between Israel and the terrorist group and implement an “arms embargo” against the Jewish state.
On Thursday, Tlaib slammed the House for passing a bill which would sanction members of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over its issuing of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant
“What’s their top priority the first week of the new Congress? Lowering costs? Addressing the housing crisis? No, it’s sanctioning the International Criminal Court to protect genocidal maniac Netanyahu so he can continue the genocide in Gaza,” Tlaib wrote on social media.
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Sydney Synagogue Daubed in Antisemitic Graffiti in Latest Attack on Australian Jews
A synagogue in Sydney was daubed in antisemitic graffiti on Friday, police said, the latest in a spate of incidents targeting Jews in Australia.
Police will deploy a special task force to investigate the attack on the Southern Sydney Synagogue in the suburb of Allawah that happened in the early hours of Friday morning, New South Wales state Police Assistant Commissioner Peter McKenna told a news conference.
“The people who do the sort of thing should realize we will be out in force to look for them; we will catch them and prosecute them,” he said.
Television footage showed multiple swastikas painted on the building, along with a message reading “Hitler on top.”
“[There is] no place in Australia, our tolerant multicultural community, for this sort of criminal activity,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told a news conference.
The incident is the latest in a series of antisemitic incidents in Australia in the last year, including multiple incidents of graffiti on buildings and cars in Sydney, as well as arson attack on a synagogue in Melbourne that police have ruled as terrorism.
Australia has seen an increase in antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023 and Israel launched its war against the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza. Some Jewish organizations have said the government has not taken sufficient action in response.
The country launched a task force last month following the Melbourne synagogue blaze, focusing on threats, violence, and hatred towards the Australian Jewish community.
Australia’s ice hockey federation said on Tuesday it had cancelled a planned international qualifying tournament due to safety concerns, with local media reporting the decision was linked to the participation of the Israeli national team.
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