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A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah

People rush to a soccer field hit by a Hezbollah rocket in the majority-Druze northern Israeli town Majdal Shams Photo: Via 924, from social media used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Friday, July 19, that Gaza ceasefire talks are “inside the 10-yard line” raised hope (again) for an end to the 9-month Israel-Hamas conflict.

Overlooked in the excitement about a possible ceasefire, however, is the impact that it will have on Israel’s other nine-month conflict. The achievement of a ceasefire in Gaza places Israel in a challenging predicament vis-à-vis its conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, and creates other problems if the ceasefire allows Hamas to stay in power.

On October 8, Hezbollah launched an unprovoked attack on Israel. The attack started an almost daily cycle of violence. Hezbollah launches a barrage of rockets, missiles, or drones at northern Israel — the latest being the attack on Majdal Shams that claimed the lives of 12 children. Israel then responds by shooting them down, targeting the launch areas, and attempting to thwart future attacks by killing militia members and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression is an attempt to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has linked their violence in northern Israel to the Israeli violence in Gaza. The militia declared their attacks to be an act of solidarity with Hamas, and the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite mounting casualties and the gradual degradation of its capabilities by Israel, the militia remains undeterred. Hezbollah’s leadership repeatedly vows to continue their attacks until Israel ends its operations in Gaza. In other words, northern Israel will not experience quiet until the people of Gaza experience quiet.

Although a ceasefire in Gaza would be a welcome development, it would produce a problematic outcome for Israel along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah would be empowered. It would survive its assault on Israel just as Hamas presumably would. And a dangerous precedent would be created.

By virtue of a Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah would suspend its operations against Israel. The suspension of aggression via the ceasefire allows Hezbollah to claim a victory of sorts. The militia did not succumb to Israeli attacks; rather, it maintained solidarity with Gaza until Israel was “forced” to agree to a ceasefire.

A Gaza ceasefire allows Hezbollah to go unpunished for attacking Israel. An unpunished Hezbollah is an undeterred Hezbollah. An undeterred Hezbollah believes in its actions from the last nine months — that they succeeded, and can and will work in the future. The militia will expand its weapons stockpiles, further entrench itself along the Israeli border, and continue to insert itself into future outbreaks of violence between Israel and Palestinians. And when conflict breaks out again between Israel and Palestinian factions in the West Bank or Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel again and declare it another act of solidarity.

A Gaza ceasefire enables Hezbollah to inform the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia can influence the scope and its intensity. Going forward, Israel can expect to fight on not one but two fronts (Palestinian areas and against Hezbollah). Israel will have to make additional calculations and preparations every time it engages Palestinian elements, because of Hezbollah’s linkage to the conflict.

A Gaza ceasefire also aids Hezbollah’s long-term objective.

The terrorist militia envisions a Middle East without Israel. The willingness of the militia to continue to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas is not just about ending the fighting and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s intervention is also about making Israel increasingly unlivable. Hezbollah wants to squeeze the life and prosperity out of Israel. And, of course, Hezbollah is funded by Iran, which makes Israel’s eradication one of its primary missions.

Hezbollah’s aggression is intended to make Israelis leave the area. They believe that over time, an atmosphere of insecurity and disruption will become more pronounced and affect a growing number of Israelis. As the quality of life in Israel suffers, intolerance for the status quo will grow. Slowly citizens might begin to abandon Israel. Eventually, parts of Israel could resemble little more than a military outpost manned by soldiers in a hostile environment.

The last nine months foreshadowed Hezbollah’s long-term objective. Tens of thousands of Israelis from northern Israel have endured extended displacement, and some residents have relocated. Displacement for some will endure after Israel announced on July 24 the postponement of the upcoming school year in areas located near the Israeli-Lebanese border. Businesses in northern Israel have slowed or closed due to a lack of labor, consumers, and insecurity. The circumstances have harmed the quality of life in northern Israel, and Israel’s overall economy.

And if Israel responds more forcefully to these rocket attacks and prevents Hezbollah from seeing the past nine months as a victory, that will be another public relations headache for Israel. Israel already encounters criticism and pressure for its alleged “transgressions” of international law in Gaza. The criticism and pressure will be compounded by taking offensive action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli relations with Europe, Canada, and elements of the US Democratic Party will experience further strain. Europe, Canada, and some Democrats view the absence of violence produced by a ceasefire as the forerunner to security and co-existence. But that is delusional thinking.

Hezbollah is not interested in recognizing Israel, and living side by side with it. The liberal and progressive elements in Europe, Canada, and the United States fail to take seriously the absolutist objectives espoused by Hezbollah, the militia’s ongoing actions, and the growing threat it poses to Israel.

It is in the interests of Israel to keep the Hamas-Palestinian conflict as separate as possible from its conflict with Hezbollah. Failure to do so complicates an already challenging situation. Under the current circumstances, the much-discussed and anticipated ceasefire in Gaza creates a catch 22 for Israel in its dealings with Hezbollah.

Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. He tweets at @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.

The post A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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China and Egypt Launch Joint Military Drills Near Israeli Border Amid Rising Regional Tensions

China and Egypt have launched their first-ever joint air force drill, “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” at an Egyptian airbase. Photo: Screenshot

China and Egypt launched a large-scale joint military exercise this week near the Israeli border, described by Chinese media as a “historic” first of its kind, aimed at deepening military cooperation amid rising regional tensions.

The joint drills — dubbed “Eagles of Civilization 2025” — began Sunday at an Egyptian Air Force base about 100 kilometers (62 miles) west of the Gulf of Suez and are expected to run through mid-May.

According to Israel’s Channel 12, the drill features Chinese J-10C fighter jets, refueling planes, and KJ-500 early warning aircraft, along with Russian-made MiG-29s flown by Egypt.

This exercise “is the first joint training between the Chinese and Egyptian militaries, which is of great significance to promoting pragmatic cooperation and enhancing mutual trust and friendship between the two militaries,” the Chinese Ministry of National Defense said in a statement.

Egyptian officials said the joint drills, aimed at strengthening military ties, will combine theoretical and practical training to enhance combat doctrines.

“The training will also involve joint aerial sorties, planning exercises, and simulated air combat management operations to exchange expertise and enhance the skills of the participating forces,” an Egyptian armed forces spokesperson said in a statement on social media.

Some experts view Beijing’s growing relationship with Cairo as the country’s latest move to expand its military presence in the Middle East and Africa, challenging the United States as its influence in the region stalls. This move could also help China strengthen ties with regional partners as the country faces mounting economic sanctions from Washington.

While details about Egypt’s military buildup remain unclear, “satellite images have shown the movement of tanks and battalions that exceed the limits set by the Camp David Accords,” Mariam Wahba, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told The Algemeiner.

Under the peace treaty, Egypt can request permission from Israel to deploy more than the 47 battalions allowed. However, some estimates suggest that there are currently camps for 180 battalions.

“The Camp David Accords have long been a pillar of peace and stability in the Middle East,” Wahba explained. “A breakdown of the agreement would have serious implications, not just for Israel and Egypt but for the broader region.”

“It could embolden actors like Iran and its proxies to exploit tensions and could lead to increased militarization along Israel’s southern border,” Wahba told The Algemeiner.

Egypt’s military buildup, reportedly in response to Israel’s presence at the Philadelphi Corridor and concerns over a potential mass Palestinian exodus into the country, along with Jerusalem’s control of the corridor, could both breach the 1979 peace treaty.

Last month, China, Russia, and Iran held a three-day naval drill in the Gulf of Oman, conducting joint operations in Iranian territorial waters, strengthening their defense cooperation and bolstering their presence in the region.

China’s growing ties with Egypt come at a time when Egyptian relations with Washington are strained, following US President Donald Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip — potentially to Egypt and other Arab countries — during reconstruction efforts after the war, a plan Cairo has strongly opposed.

“This is a reminder that our partners have options,” Former US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel told The War Zone. “China is positioning itself as a viable military supplier and strategic partner” in the region.

In a rapidly shifting Middle East marked by rising tensions and competing regional power blocs, China and Egypt’s deepening cooperation could reshape regional power dynamics, challenging American influence and diminishing Israel’s strategic flexibility.

Israeli defense officials have previously expressed growing concern over Cairo’s military buildup and armed presence in the Sinai Peninsula.

These concerns come amid escalating tensions between Jerusalem and Cairo since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, particularly over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, where Egypt has demanded Israel withdraw its forces.

Earlier this year, Jerusalem accused Egypt of violating their decades-old peace treaty, while also raising concerns about Cairo’s expanding defense capabilities.

 

The post China and Egypt Launch Joint Military Drills Near Israeli Border Amid Rising Regional Tensions first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Pro-Palestine Demonstrators Blast Sanders as ‘Genocide Denier’

US Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks to the media following a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, US, July 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) has been targeted by left-wing protesters over his supposedly insufficient support for Gaza.

Pro-Palestine activists crashed one of Sanders’s “The Fighting Oligarchy” rallies in Bakersfield, California last week to grill the senator about his position on the Israel-Hamas war. During Sanders’s speech, activists associated with United Liberation Front for Palestine (ULFP) berated Sanders for his reluctance in accusing Israel of committing so-called “genocide” against the civilians of Gaza.

“Are you going to call it a genocide, when it’s a genocide?” the activist bellowed. 

“And you defend Israel when Palestinians are being killed every single day and all you do is criticize Netanyahu! Israel does not have a right to exist or fight while Palestinians are dying,” she continued.

Other protesters then interrupted Sanders’s speech, condemning the progressive lawmaker as a “liberal Zionist,” accusing him of being “complicit with ICE,” and castigating him for voting in favor of the confirmation of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

“Bernie, why don’t you let your fans know that you’re a settler, that you occupy Palestinian land?” the activist said. 

Sanders does not possess dual citizenship with Israel. However, rumors about Sanders, who is Jewish, possessing Israeli citizenship have circulated around the internet since his 2015 presidential campaign. 

In recent weeks, anti-Israel protesters have grown increasingly critical of Sanders over his refusal to adopt more adversarial rhetoric against the Jewish state. Last week, Sanders incensed progressives after authorities removed an activist which unfurled a flag reading “free Palestine” during a tour stop in Idaho. 

During that rally, Sanders said, “Israel, like any other country, has the right to defend itself from terrorism, but it does not have the right to wage all out war against the Palestinian people” and “not one more nickel to Netanyahu,” triggering more outrage among his leftist supporters. 

Sanders, who is among the most vocal critics of the Israel-Hamas war in the federal government, spearheaded a number of failed efforts to implement a partial arms embargo on the Jewish state, citing supposed “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza. However, progressive activists have grown increasingly vocal about their dissatisfaction with Sanders’s position on Israel, complaining that the senator has isolated his criticisms to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and has refused to repudiate Israel’s existence. 

The post Pro-Palestine Demonstrators Blast Sanders as ‘Genocide Denier’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Harvard Sues Trump Administration Over Massive Cuts Amid Campus Antisemitism Crisis

US President Donald Trump, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick attend a cabinet meeting at the White House. Photo: Nathan Howard via Reuters Connect.

Harvard University filed suit against the Trump administration on Monday to request an injunction that would halt the government’s impounding of $2.26 billion of its federal grants and contracts and an additional $1 billion that, reportedly, will be confiscated in the coming days.

In the complaint, shared by interim university president Alan Garber, Harvard says the administration bypassed key procedural steps it must, by law, take before sequestering any federal funds. It also charges that the Trump administration does not aim, as it has publicly pledged, to combat campus antisemitism at Harvard but to impose “viewpoint-based conditions on Harvard’s funding.”

As previously reported by The Algemeiner, the administration has proposed that Harvard reform in ways that conservatives have long argued will make higher education more meritocratic and less welcoming to anti-Zionists and far-left extremists. Its “demands,” contained in a letter the administration sent to Garber — who subsequently released it to the public — called for “viewpoint diversity in hiring and admissions,” the “discontinuation of [diversity, equity, and inclusion, or DEI, initiatives],” and “reducing forms of governance bloat.” They also implore Harvard to begin “reforming programs with egregious records of antisemitism” and to recalibrate its approach to “student discipline.”

Harvard rejects the administration’s coupling of campus antisemitism with longstanding grievances regarding elite higher education’s “wokeness,” elitism, and overwhelming bias against conservative ideast. Republican lawmakers, for their part, have maintained that it is futile to address campus antisemitism while ignoring the context in which it emerged.

Speaking for the university, Harvard’s legal team — which includes attorneys with links to US President Donald Trump’s inner circle — denounced any larger reform effort as intrusive.

“The First Amendment does not permit the Government to ‘interfere with private actors’ speech to advance its own vision of ideological balance,” they wrote in the complaint, which names several members and agencies of the administration but not Trump as a defendant. “Nor may the government ‘rely on the ‘threat of invoking legal sanctions and other means of coercion … to achieve the suppression of disfavored speech.’ The government’s attempt to coerce and control Harvard disregards these fundamental First Amendment principles, which safeguard Harvard’s ‘academic freedom.’”

The complaint continued, arguing that the impounding of funds “flout not just the First Amendment, but also federal laws and regulations” and says that Harvard should have been investigated by the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) to determine whether it failed to stop and, later, prevent antisemitism in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act — a finding that would have warranted punitive measures. Rather, it charges, the Trump administration imposed a “sweeping freeze of funding” that, it contends, “has nothing at all to do with antisemitism and Title VI compliance.”

Garber followed up the complaint with an exaltation of limited government and the liberal values which further academia’s educational mission — values Harvard has been accused of failing to uphold for decades.

“We stand for the truth that colleges and universities across the country can embrace and honor their legal obligations and best fulfill their essential role in society without improper government intrusion,” Garber said in a statement announcing the lawsuit. “That is how we achieve academic excellence, safeguard open inquiry and freedom of speech, and conduct pioneering research — and how we advance the boundless exploration that propels our nation and its people into a better future.”

For some, Harvard’s allegations against the Trump administration are hollow.

“Claiming that the entire institution is exempt from any oversight or intervention is extraordinary,” Alex Joffe, anthropologist and editor of BDS Monitor for Scholars for Peace in the Middle East, told The Algemeiner on Tuesday. “It would seem to claim, at least by extension, that the government cannot enforce laws regarding equal protection for individuals — namely students in minority groups — and other legal and regulatory frameworks because they jeopardize the institution’s academic freedom.”

He continued, “Moreover, the idea that cutting voluntary government funding is de facto denial of free speech also sounds exaggerated if not absurd. If an institution doesn’t want to be subjected to certain requirements in a relationship entered into voluntarily with the government, they shouldn’t take the money. Modifying a contract after the fact, however, might be another issue … At one level the Trump administration is simply doing what Obama and Biden did with far less controversy, issuing directives and threatening lawsuits and funding. But the substance of the proposed oversight, especially the intrusiveness with respect to curricular affairs, has obviously touched a nerve.”

Harvard’s fight with the federal government is backed by its immense wealth, and the school has been drawing on its vast financial resources to build a war chest for withstanding Trump’s budget cuts since March, when it issued over $450 million in bonds as “part of ongoing contingency planning for a range of financial circumstances.” Another $750 million in bonds was offered to investors in April, according to The Harvard Crimson, a sale that is being managed by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

A generous subsidy protects Harvard from paying exorbitant interest on the new debt, as investors can sell most bonds issued by educational institutions without being required to pay federal income tax.

Other universities have resorted to borrowing as well, issuing what was reportedly a record $12.4 billion municipal bonds, some of which are taxable, during the first quarter of 2025. Among those which chose to take on debt are Northwestern University, which was defunded to the tune of $790 million on April 8. It issued $500 million in bonds in March. Princeton University, recently dispossessed of $210 in federal grants, is preparing an offering of $320 million, according to Forbes.

“If Harvard is willing to mortgage it’s real estate or use it as collateral, it can borrow money for a very long time,” National Association of Scholars president Peter Wood told The Algemeiner on Tuesday. “But it could destroy itself that way.”

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

The post Harvard Sues Trump Administration Over Massive Cuts Amid Campus Antisemitism Crisis first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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