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A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah
People rush to a soccer field hit by a Hezbollah rocket in the majority-Druze northern Israeli town Majdal Shams Photo: Via 924, from social media used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Friday, July 19, that Gaza ceasefire talks are “inside the 10-yard line” raised hope (again) for an end to the 9-month Israel-Hamas conflict.
Overlooked in the excitement about a possible ceasefire, however, is the impact that it will have on Israel’s other nine-month conflict. The achievement of a ceasefire in Gaza places Israel in a challenging predicament vis-à-vis its conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, and creates other problems if the ceasefire allows Hamas to stay in power.
On October 8, Hezbollah launched an unprovoked attack on Israel. The attack started an almost daily cycle of violence. Hezbollah launches a barrage of rockets, missiles, or drones at northern Israel — the latest being the attack on Majdal Shams that claimed the lives of 12 children. Israel then responds by shooting them down, targeting the launch areas, and attempting to thwart future attacks by killing militia members and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression is an attempt to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has linked their violence in northern Israel to the Israeli violence in Gaza. The militia declared their attacks to be an act of solidarity with Hamas, and the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite mounting casualties and the gradual degradation of its capabilities by Israel, the militia remains undeterred. Hezbollah’s leadership repeatedly vows to continue their attacks until Israel ends its operations in Gaza. In other words, northern Israel will not experience quiet until the people of Gaza experience quiet.
Although a ceasefire in Gaza would be a welcome development, it would produce a problematic outcome for Israel along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah would be empowered. It would survive its assault on Israel just as Hamas presumably would. And a dangerous precedent would be created.
By virtue of a Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah would suspend its operations against Israel. The suspension of aggression via the ceasefire allows Hezbollah to claim a victory of sorts. The militia did not succumb to Israeli attacks; rather, it maintained solidarity with Gaza until Israel was “forced” to agree to a ceasefire.
A Gaza ceasefire allows Hezbollah to go unpunished for attacking Israel. An unpunished Hezbollah is an undeterred Hezbollah. An undeterred Hezbollah believes in its actions from the last nine months — that they succeeded, and can and will work in the future. The militia will expand its weapons stockpiles, further entrench itself along the Israeli border, and continue to insert itself into future outbreaks of violence between Israel and Palestinians. And when conflict breaks out again between Israel and Palestinian factions in the West Bank or Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel again and declare it another act of solidarity.
A Gaza ceasefire enables Hezbollah to inform the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia can influence the scope and its intensity. Going forward, Israel can expect to fight on not one but two fronts (Palestinian areas and against Hezbollah). Israel will have to make additional calculations and preparations every time it engages Palestinian elements, because of Hezbollah’s linkage to the conflict.
A Gaza ceasefire also aids Hezbollah’s long-term objective.
The terrorist militia envisions a Middle East without Israel. The willingness of the militia to continue to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas is not just about ending the fighting and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s intervention is also about making Israel increasingly unlivable. Hezbollah wants to squeeze the life and prosperity out of Israel. And, of course, Hezbollah is funded by Iran, which makes Israel’s eradication one of its primary missions.
Hezbollah’s aggression is intended to make Israelis leave the area. They believe that over time, an atmosphere of insecurity and disruption will become more pronounced and affect a growing number of Israelis. As the quality of life in Israel suffers, intolerance for the status quo will grow. Slowly citizens might begin to abandon Israel. Eventually, parts of Israel could resemble little more than a military outpost manned by soldiers in a hostile environment.
The last nine months foreshadowed Hezbollah’s long-term objective. Tens of thousands of Israelis from northern Israel have endured extended displacement, and some residents have relocated. Displacement for some will endure after Israel announced on July 24 the postponement of the upcoming school year in areas located near the Israeli-Lebanese border. Businesses in northern Israel have slowed or closed due to a lack of labor, consumers, and insecurity. The circumstances have harmed the quality of life in northern Israel, and Israel’s overall economy.
And if Israel responds more forcefully to these rocket attacks and prevents Hezbollah from seeing the past nine months as a victory, that will be another public relations headache for Israel. Israel already encounters criticism and pressure for its alleged “transgressions” of international law in Gaza. The criticism and pressure will be compounded by taking offensive action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli relations with Europe, Canada, and elements of the US Democratic Party will experience further strain. Europe, Canada, and some Democrats view the absence of violence produced by a ceasefire as the forerunner to security and co-existence. But that is delusional thinking.
Hezbollah is not interested in recognizing Israel, and living side by side with it. The liberal and progressive elements in Europe, Canada, and the United States fail to take seriously the absolutist objectives espoused by Hezbollah, the militia’s ongoing actions, and the growing threat it poses to Israel.
It is in the interests of Israel to keep the Hamas-Palestinian conflict as separate as possible from its conflict with Hezbollah. Failure to do so complicates an already challenging situation. Under the current circumstances, the much-discussed and anticipated ceasefire in Gaza creates a catch 22 for Israel in its dealings with Hezbollah.
Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. He tweets at @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.
The post A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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After False Dawns, Gazans Hope Trump Will Force End to Two-Year-Old War
Palestinians walk past a residential building destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, after Hamas agreed to release hostages and accept some other terms in a US plan to end the war, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
Exhausted Palestinians in Gaza clung to hopes on Saturday that US President Donald Trump would keep up pressure on Israel to end a two-year-old war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced the entire population of more than two million.
Hamas’ declaration that it was ready to hand over hostages and accept some terms of Trump’s plan to end the conflict while calling for more talks on several key issues was greeted with relief in the enclave, where most homes are now in ruins.
“It’s happy news, it saves those who are still alive,” said 32-year-old Saoud Qarneyta, reacting to Hamas’ response and Trump’s intervention. “This is enough. Houses have been damaged, everything has been damaged, what is left? Nothing.”
GAZAN RESIDENT HOPES ‘WE WILL BE DONE WITH WARS’
Ismail Zayda, 40, a father of three, displaced from a suburb in northern Gaza City where Israel launched a full-scale ground operation last month, said: “We want President Trump to keep pushing for an end to the war, if this chance is lost, it means that Gaza City will be destroyed by Israel and we might not survive.
“Enough, two years of bombardment, death and starvation. Enough,” he told Reuters on a social media chat.
“God willing this will be the last war. We will hopefully be done with the wars,” said 59-year-old Ali Ahmad, speaking in one of the tented camps where most Palestinians now live.
“We urge all sides not to backtrack. Every day of delay costs lives in Gaza, it is not just time wasted, lives get wasted too,” said Tamer Al-Burai, a Gaza City businessman displaced with members of his family in central Gaza Strip.
After two previous ceasefires — one near the start of the war and another earlier this year — lasted only a few weeks, he said; “I am very optimistic this time, maybe Trump’s seeking to be remembered as a man of peace, will bring us real peace this time.”
RESIDENT WORRIES THAT NETANYAHU WILL ‘SABOTAGE’ DEAL
Some voiced hopes of returning to their homes, but the Israeli military issued a fresh warning to Gazans on Saturday to stay out of Gaza City, describing it as a “dangerous combat zone.”
Gazans have faced previous false dawns during the past two years, when Trump and others declared at several points during on-off negotiations between Hamas, Israel and Arab and US mediators that a deal was close, only for war to rage on.
“Will it happen? Can we trust Trump? Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time? He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now,” said Aya, 31, who was displaced with her family to Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
She added: “Maybe there is a chance the war ends at October 7, two years after it began.”
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Mass Rally in Rome on Fourth Day of Italy’s Pro-Palestinian Protests
A Pro-Palestinian demonstrator waves a Palestinian flag during a national protest for Gaza in Rome, Italy, October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Claudia Greco
Large crowds assembled in central Rome on Saturday for the fourth straight day of protests in Italy since Israel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver aid to Gaza, and detained its activists.
People holding banners and Palestinian flags, chanting “Free Palestine” and other slogans, filed past the Colosseum, taking part in a march that organizers hoped would attract at least 1 million people.
“I’m here with a lot of other friends because I think it is important for us all to mobilize individually,” Francesco Galtieri, a 65-year-old musician from Rome, said. “If we don’t all mobilize, then nothing will change.”
Since Israel started blocking the flotilla late on Wednesday, protests have sprung up across Europe and in other parts of the world, but in Italy they have been a daily occurrence, in multiple cities.
On Friday, unions called a general strike in support of the flotilla, with demonstrations across the country that attracted more than 2 million, according to organizers. The interior ministry estimated attendance at around 400,000.
Italy’s right-wing government has been critical of the protests, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggesting that people would skip work for Gaza just as an excuse for a longer weekend break.
On Saturday, Meloni blamed protesters for insulting graffiti that appeared on a statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s main train station, where Pro-Palestinian groups have been holding a protest picket.
“They say they are taking to the streets for peace, but then they insult the memory of a man who was a true defender and builder of peace. A shameful act committed by people blinded by ideology,” she said in a statement.
Israel launched its Gaza offensive after Hamas terrorists staged a cross border attack on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 people hostage.
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Hamas Says It Agrees to Release All Israeli Hostages Under Trump Gaza Plan
Smoke rises during an Israeli military operation in Gaza City, as seen from the central Gaza Strip, October 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Hamas said on Friday it had agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or dead, under the terms of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal, and signaled readiness to immediately enter mediated negotiations to discuss the details.