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A ‘Long War’ Is Not the Answer to Israel’s Security Problem — and Could Lead to Destruction (PART TWO)
An Israeli soldier stands during a two-minute siren marking the annual Israeli Holocaust Remembrance Day, at an installation at the site of the Nova festival where party goers were killed and kidnapped during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, in Reim, southern Israel, May 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
To read part one of this article, click here.
There are those who exhibit a romantic nostalgia for the hardships suffered by the founders of the state in the War of Independence — back then, we stood alone, the few against many. But after the first ceasefire in the War of Independence, the young IDF was able to strengthen itself and stand in an equal and even better power position than the armies of Egypt and the forces from the north. Note, by the way, that the IDF was largely unable to repel the Jordanian army, which was well equipped and organized.
Although Israel won the war of liberation, it did not even approach the defeat of its enemies and the achievement of complete victory. Determination and faith are important in war but do not guarantee military achievements. Embrace the difficulties of the past if you wish, but don’t expect those difficulties to somehow ensure success.
Ideology is also involved in the attempt to change the security concept. The Israeli right wing does not believe in reaching an agreement with the Palestinians, and is not interested in a binational state. To avoid a resolution is necessarily to choose endless war. According to Minister Bezalel Smotritch, Israel needs a security concept that entails a continuous war against the Palestinians until they are defeated. To this ideological way of thinking, endless war is justified if it has the purpose of eliminating the Palestinian threat to Israel.
In the Iron Swords War, the political leadership defined a goal that is impossible according to Ben-Gurion’s security concept, and the IDF set out to achieve that goal without a plan, a time frame, or the proper means in place. The IDF embarked on the Iron Swords War without a clear vision of what it was trying to achieve militarily, how long it would take, and what means it had at its disposal. A military plan must be based on resources that you know you have. You must never plan on unspecified quantities of capabilities, equipment, and time that are not already available to you.
Hezbollah’s entry into the war, which will occur in the manner chosen by Nasrallah, illustrates the absurdity of the way the Iron Swords War is being conducted. The entire northern region has been evacuated and abandoned indefinitely because the IDF is invested in Gaza and cannot allocate the necessary resources to protect the north.
What will Israel’s strategic situation be if the war in Gaza ends with a hostage agreement but without the Hamas regime having been “deported to Tunis”? Hamas (and the rest of Israel’s enemies) will be jubilant in their victory at having both achieved the release of Palestinian prisoners and survived to tell the tale. Will the price paid by Gaza, and perhaps the prevention of Gaza’s rehabilitation as long as Hamas is in power, be enough to reposition Israel as a regional military power?
Is a new concept of security — one in which every external threat is to be fought by war until its elimination — really required? The elimination of Hamas has not yet been achieved, and Israel has been at war with it for 10 months. How much time, armament, and military equipment will it take to eliminate Hezbollah? And after Hezbollah, what will prevent the forces supported by Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen from continuing to fight? What will their military elimination look like? And what will move Iran to partner up with Abraham Accords?
According to the new concept, it is not possible to rely on deterrence because it always fails. There is also no point in short wars that do not completely eliminate the enemy. But if the goal of war is complete victory, it is mandatory to build a force that can support such an effort. How many days of war should the warehouses be prepared for? Weeks, months, or years?
If it is to enter a new “long war” era, the IDF will have to prepare and equip forces for wars that last years. Will the Israeli economy be able to withstand this? Will it be able to support “the largest army in the Middle East” (like after the Yom Kippur War)? Will the society that carries the economy on its back and serves in the reserves tolerate this? Will Israel continue to be a center of attraction for investors under such an economic structure? Will Israel’s enemies mount another attack like October 7 or just wait for the fruits of the Ben-Gurion concept to collapse? Israel’s “miracle” can be destroyed from within. Israel may have a well-equipped army, but what will happen to the country that relies on it?
In order to avoid ending the discussion on a vague statement that the concept of a long war for total victory and complete elimination of the threat is impossible and unrealistic, we will examine what Israel can still do according to the old concept.
If the Iron Swords War had been conducted according to the security concept, the following strategy could, for the sake of illustration, have been devised in October:
The IDF will be satisfied with severely hitting Hamas, not the entire territory of the Gaza Strip, while creating a completely demilitarized area in the north of the Gaza Strip. That area will later become the basis for the establishment of an alternative government.
Israel will arrive early at an agreement to free the abductees. This will be at the heavy price of releasing murderers and will allow the survival of some Hamas leaders, but will also allow for the design of a new border area and an obstacle that provides security for the returning residents of the surrounding communities.
As a result of these measures, Israel will maintain international support and perhaps even become a partner in a regional coalition with Saudi Arabia.
The IDF will be left with enough potential to fight Hezbollah — so much so that war might be prevented and an arrangement might be made that allows the residents of the north to return home.
True, this solution does not describe a complete victory, and Hamas would continue to exist. But the conditions would have been created for the establishment of an alternative government, at least in the north of the Gaza Strip, in an area that would begin to recover while the southern part of the Strip remains in ruins. It is possible that the IDF would have had to engage in another round of war in the southern Gaza Strip, but that is Israel’s fate. That is the way it was, and that is the way it will continue to be. The Hamas regime would have probably crumbled in half-destroyed Gaza, and the situation in the southern Gaza Strip would have provided Israel with deterrence at least until the next round.
It could have been a short war, just another round, but one that allowed a return to normality that made it possible to restore and recover.
The last 10 months have made clear that great pain does not confer desired abilities that did not previously exist. Israel is an island nation based on a reserve army. A long war is not a solution to a security problem. It is not possible to achieve complete victory, but we may well achieve complete failure if we pursue victory for too long without considering the limitations on our power, economy, and society.
Col. (res.) Gur Laish served as head of the campaign planning department in the Israel Air Force and as head of the security concept division at the National Security Council. He has a master’s degree in political science from the University of Haifa. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post A ‘Long War’ Is Not the Answer to Israel’s Security Problem — and Could Lead to Destruction (PART TWO) first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Mahmoud Abbas’ Advisor: Terror Is Legal, But Only PLO Can Decide on ‘The Armed Option’
The bodies of people, some of them elderly, lie on a street after they were killed during a mass-infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in Sderot, southern Israel, Oct. 7, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The Palestinian Authority (PA) is trying to have its cake and eat it too.
On the one hand, the PA is still angry that Hamas launched its terror war against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, without consulting it first, and that Hamas has been able to take all the credit for successfully massacring over 1,100 Israelis. As a result, Hamas has overwhelming support among Palestinians in the West Bank.
Accordingly, despite the animosity, the PA needs Hamas on board with the PLO, due to the vast support among Palestinians for Hamas. Despite the destruction Hamas has brought on the Gaza Strip, the terror movement is still 2.5-3 times more popular than its rival Fatah, the ruling party in the PA/PLO.
To balance those competing interests, PA leader Mahmoud Abbas’ advisor on Religious Affairs and Islamic Relations, Mahmoud Al-Habbash, made the following statement, sending two messages that stand somewhat at odds with each other:
- The PA/PLO endorses terror as “legal” and does not oppose “the armed option”
- Hamas or other terror organizations are not allowed to single-handedly decide and launch terror attacks. Such decisions must be made “together” and only “in the framework of the PA/PLO” — in other words: Hamas must subordinate to the PA/PLO
Mahmoud Al-Habbash: “It is unacceptable to say that the resistance [i.e., terror] is legal or illegal — it is legal. No one can cancel this fact or evade this fact. But the resistance needs to be a comprehensive national project. Not a project of one movement that drags all the Palestinians after its decision
. No, if we want to choose the armed option, we must all go together in a national decision. The national decision needs to be made in the framework of the PLO, the sole legal representative of the Palestinian people. No faction that feels like carrying out armed resistance can take the Palestinian people together with it without taking into account the considerations, results, and consequences.” [emphasis added]
[Mahmoud Al-Habbash, Facebook page, Nov. 1, 2024]
Palestinian Media Watch has documented that the PA, and Al-Habbash specifically, have criticized Hamas for not consulting with the PLO before it attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, launching the 2023 Gaza war
. However, they have never criticized Hamas for the massacre itself, but rather applauded and celebrated it.
The author is a senior analyst at Palestinian Media Watch, where a version of this article was originally published.
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Paramount+ Announces New Docuseries About World’s First Israeli-Palestinian Boy Band As1one
A promotional photo for the new Paramount+ docuseries “”AS1One: The Israeli-Palestinian Pop Music Journey.” Photo: Paramount+
Parmount+ announced on Wednesday that it will premiere a four-part docuseries in December focusing on the world’s first mixed Israeli-Palestinian pop music group, As1one.
“As1one: The Israeli-Palestinian Pop Music Journey” will premiere Dec. 3. The coming-of-age docuseries, which will detail how six young men joined forced to form the global hit pop group, was produced by The As1One Production Company in association with Best Production Company for MTV Entertainment Studios. It was co-produced by the band’s founders, American music entrepreneurs Ken Levitan and James Diener, who developed bands such as Kings of Leon and Maroon 5.
The group is comprised of four Jewish Israelis and two Palestinians — Ohad Attia and Neat Rozenblat from Tel Aviv; Sadik Dogosh, a Palestinian Bedouin Muslim from Rahat; Aseel Farah, a Palestinian Christian from Haifa; Niv Lin from the southern Israeli town of Sapir; and Nadav Philips from Holon.
The docuseries will follow the band members over a five-year period and show how they founded the band, navigate the music industry, face challenges among themselves, and even cope with the deadly Hamas-led terrorist attacks that took place in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
“The band members share their ups and downs including the challenging audition process in 2020; their language barriers, intense rehearsals, emotional highs and lows as they found their footing; navigating the very unexpected world events that happened on October 7th, 2023 — the morning after they flew to LA to record their first album; and the monumental challenges they have faced each day since,” Paramount+ said in a press release. “With so much more at stake because of the war, the band finds greater purpose in their music now representing something much greater than the six of them.”
The docuseries “spotlights the work of platinum-selling artists and producers, stylists, choreographers, and industry leaders, all collaborating to create a group that embodies unity, with members agreeing to disagree on the war in their homeland as they focus on making music together,” Paramound+ added.
The docuseries will also feature original music from the group, including their debut single “All Eyes On Us” featuring Nile Rodgers, as well as their upcoming single “Stranger,” which the band will debut on Friday.
Watch the trailer for “AS1One: The Israeli-Palestinian Pop Music Journey” below.
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University of Michigan Student Government Impeaches Anti-Zionist President
University of Michigan PhD student, center, carries a sign that says ‘Free Speech! Free Palestine!’ at U-M’s Diag in Ann Arbor on April 4, 2024. Photo: Junfu Huan via Reuters Connect
The University of Michigan’s Central Student Government (CSG) has impeached President Alifa Chowdury, the anti-Zionist leader of the extremist Shut It Down (SID) Party that has, since taking office during the summer, attempted to withhold funding for campus clubs to pressure administrators into boycotting Israel.
Chowdury’s behavior has worsened in recent weeks, according to articles of impeachment filed by Rep. Margaret Peterman and passed overwhelmingly by legislators via secret ballot. Among the charges enumerated in the documents are “incitement of violence, cyber theft, and dereliction of duty,” The Michigan Daily reported on Wednesday.
“In all this, President Chowdury gravely endangered the security of students and the functioning of the Central Student Government,” a motion outlining the case for removing Chowdury from office says. “They threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful consideration of legislation, and imperiled a coequal branch of government. They thereby betrayed their trust as president, to the manifest injury of the students of the University of Michigan.”
The Daily added that the cyber theft charge is based on Chowdury’s changing, allegedly, the login credentials for CSG’s Instagram account in retaliation for losing a vote on a bill which aimed to hold hostage hundreds of thousands of dollars earmarked for distribution to student clubs unless the administration agreed to condemn Israel, sever institutional partnerships with its universities, and divest its holdings of Israeli companies and companies which do business with Israel. Chowdury has also allegedly failed to perform key functions of the presidency, including submitting reports, preparing committee members for their roles, and convening meetings with CSG’s executive council.
CSG representatives have fought tooth and nail to resist the president’s agenda and have had help from student club leaders, who insisted that Chowdury and SID were subordinating their interests to partisan politics. The fate of her term is now in the hands of the body’s Central Student Judiciary, which will soon rule on the merits of Peterman’s case against her.
SID’s capturing of the CSG has led to a historically dysfunctional administration, prompting the involvement of school officials at key moments when its brinksmanship threatened to derail core functions of the university. In August, the administration resolved to fund student clubs over Chowdury and SID’s objections, effectively stripping the new government of the power of the purse. Explaining the intervention to The Algemeiner on Tuesday, university spokesperson Colleen Mastony said it was prompted by Chowdury’s “senior” colleagues in the CSG Assembly.
SID’s rise to power on the University of Michigan’s campus has coincided with a surge of alleged anti-Black racism in the pro-Hamas community. Recently, the Black Student Union (BSU) resigned from the SID-collaborator Tahrir Coalition, citing “pervasive” anti-Black discrimination fostered by its mostly Arab and Middle Eastern leadership.
“Black identities, voices, and bodies are not valued in this coalition, and thus we must remove ourselves,” BSU said in a statement posted on Instagram. “The anti-Blackness within the coalition has been too pervasive to overcome, and we refuse to endure it.”
The university moved earlier this month to discipline another SID-affiliated group, Students Allied for Freedom and Equality (SAFE) — which endorsed SID and helped promote its campaign — for repeated violations of school rules. It may suspend the group for up to four years.
“The complaint was initiated through the Office of Student Organization Advancement and Recognition (SOAR), which is under the Center for Campus Involvement,” SAFE said in a statement published on Instagram. “Similarly to the academic disciplinary charges initiated through [the Office of Student Conflict Resolution] against protesters from the November 17th sit-in, the university acts as the judge, jury, and executioner in these disciplinary proceedings.”
SAFE has long been a source of anti-Israel activity on campus. In January, its members led an anti-government protest against the outgoing presidential administration, represented by US Vice President Kamala Harris, who appeared at the school to discuss climate change. They chanted “Kamala, Kamala, you can’t hide, you’re committing genocide” and called for mass casualty events inspired by Islamist terrorism, screaming “There is only one solution: Intifada revolution” while waving Palestinian flags.
Opposed by the student body and the administration, SID, which has accused the university of owning “blood money,” vowed on Tuesday not to surrender its power.
“Over the past three weeks, we’ve heard critiques about our work within CSG,” the party said in a statement. “We wanted to take the opportunity to clarify that Shut It Down was never intended to uphold ‘business as usual.’ The assumption that our party would operate like precious CSG administrations is simply ironic. CSG members calling for our resignations are weaponizing a manufactured narrative to paint Shut It Down as divisive … We see through these tactics and we stand with our comrades who feel forgotten and betrayed by a university that would rather protect its investments in violence than listen to the calls for divestment.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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