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A ‘Long War’ Is Not the Answer to Israel’s Security Problem — and Could Lead to Destruction (PART TWO)
An Israeli soldier stands during a two-minute siren marking the annual Israeli Holocaust Remembrance Day, at an installation at the site of the Nova festival where party goers were killed and kidnapped during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, in Reim, southern Israel, May 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
To read part one of this article, click here.
There are those who exhibit a romantic nostalgia for the hardships suffered by the founders of the state in the War of Independence — back then, we stood alone, the few against many. But after the first ceasefire in the War of Independence, the young IDF was able to strengthen itself and stand in an equal and even better power position than the armies of Egypt and the forces from the north. Note, by the way, that the IDF was largely unable to repel the Jordanian army, which was well equipped and organized.
Although Israel won the war of liberation, it did not even approach the defeat of its enemies and the achievement of complete victory. Determination and faith are important in war but do not guarantee military achievements. Embrace the difficulties of the past if you wish, but don’t expect those difficulties to somehow ensure success.
Ideology is also involved in the attempt to change the security concept. The Israeli right wing does not believe in reaching an agreement with the Palestinians, and is not interested in a binational state. To avoid a resolution is necessarily to choose endless war. According to Minister Bezalel Smotritch, Israel needs a security concept that entails a continuous war against the Palestinians until they are defeated. To this ideological way of thinking, endless war is justified if it has the purpose of eliminating the Palestinian threat to Israel.
In the Iron Swords War, the political leadership defined a goal that is impossible according to Ben-Gurion’s security concept, and the IDF set out to achieve that goal without a plan, a time frame, or the proper means in place. The IDF embarked on the Iron Swords War without a clear vision of what it was trying to achieve militarily, how long it would take, and what means it had at its disposal. A military plan must be based on resources that you know you have. You must never plan on unspecified quantities of capabilities, equipment, and time that are not already available to you.
Hezbollah’s entry into the war, which will occur in the manner chosen by Nasrallah, illustrates the absurdity of the way the Iron Swords War is being conducted. The entire northern region has been evacuated and abandoned indefinitely because the IDF is invested in Gaza and cannot allocate the necessary resources to protect the north.
What will Israel’s strategic situation be if the war in Gaza ends with a hostage agreement but without the Hamas regime having been “deported to Tunis”? Hamas (and the rest of Israel’s enemies) will be jubilant in their victory at having both achieved the release of Palestinian prisoners and survived to tell the tale. Will the price paid by Gaza, and perhaps the prevention of Gaza’s rehabilitation as long as Hamas is in power, be enough to reposition Israel as a regional military power?
Is a new concept of security — one in which every external threat is to be fought by war until its elimination — really required? The elimination of Hamas has not yet been achieved, and Israel has been at war with it for 10 months. How much time, armament, and military equipment will it take to eliminate Hezbollah? And after Hezbollah, what will prevent the forces supported by Iran in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen from continuing to fight? What will their military elimination look like? And what will move Iran to partner up with Abraham Accords?
According to the new concept, it is not possible to rely on deterrence because it always fails. There is also no point in short wars that do not completely eliminate the enemy. But if the goal of war is complete victory, it is mandatory to build a force that can support such an effort. How many days of war should the warehouses be prepared for? Weeks, months, or years?
If it is to enter a new “long war” era, the IDF will have to prepare and equip forces for wars that last years. Will the Israeli economy be able to withstand this? Will it be able to support “the largest army in the Middle East” (like after the Yom Kippur War)? Will the society that carries the economy on its back and serves in the reserves tolerate this? Will Israel continue to be a center of attraction for investors under such an economic structure? Will Israel’s enemies mount another attack like October 7 or just wait for the fruits of the Ben-Gurion concept to collapse? Israel’s “miracle” can be destroyed from within. Israel may have a well-equipped army, but what will happen to the country that relies on it?
In order to avoid ending the discussion on a vague statement that the concept of a long war for total victory and complete elimination of the threat is impossible and unrealistic, we will examine what Israel can still do according to the old concept.
If the Iron Swords War had been conducted according to the security concept, the following strategy could, for the sake of illustration, have been devised in October:
The IDF will be satisfied with severely hitting Hamas, not the entire territory of the Gaza Strip, while creating a completely demilitarized area in the north of the Gaza Strip. That area will later become the basis for the establishment of an alternative government.
Israel will arrive early at an agreement to free the abductees. This will be at the heavy price of releasing murderers and will allow the survival of some Hamas leaders, but will also allow for the design of a new border area and an obstacle that provides security for the returning residents of the surrounding communities.
As a result of these measures, Israel will maintain international support and perhaps even become a partner in a regional coalition with Saudi Arabia.
The IDF will be left with enough potential to fight Hezbollah — so much so that war might be prevented and an arrangement might be made that allows the residents of the north to return home.
True, this solution does not describe a complete victory, and Hamas would continue to exist. But the conditions would have been created for the establishment of an alternative government, at least in the north of the Gaza Strip, in an area that would begin to recover while the southern part of the Strip remains in ruins. It is possible that the IDF would have had to engage in another round of war in the southern Gaza Strip, but that is Israel’s fate. That is the way it was, and that is the way it will continue to be. The Hamas regime would have probably crumbled in half-destroyed Gaza, and the situation in the southern Gaza Strip would have provided Israel with deterrence at least until the next round.
It could have been a short war, just another round, but one that allowed a return to normality that made it possible to restore and recover.
The last 10 months have made clear that great pain does not confer desired abilities that did not previously exist. Israel is an island nation based on a reserve army. A long war is not a solution to a security problem. It is not possible to achieve complete victory, but we may well achieve complete failure if we pursue victory for too long without considering the limitations on our power, economy, and society.
Col. (res.) Gur Laish served as head of the campaign planning department in the Israel Air Force and as head of the security concept division at the National Security Council. He has a master’s degree in political science from the University of Haifa. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post A ‘Long War’ Is Not the Answer to Israel’s Security Problem — and Could Lead to Destruction (PART TWO) first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Indigo wants the law to block an online boycott promotion that appropriates bookstore branding
Canadian bookstore chain Indigo is seeking a court injunction ordering internet service providers to block a website that the company says causes the brand “irreparable harm,” while also infringing on its copyright and trademark. Indigo’s lawyers appeared in a virtual Federal Court hearing Sept. 17 to ask a judge for an injunction that would order […]
The post Indigo wants the law to block an online boycott promotion that appropriates bookstore branding appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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‘F—king Jews’: Protester Interrupts Hate Crimes Hearing at US Capitol Over Focus on Antisemitism
US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) speaking at a press conference about the United States restricting weapons for Israel, at the US Capitol, Washington, DC. Photo: Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
An anti-Israel agitator on Tuesday unleashed an antisemitic tirade during a congressional hearing in Washington, DC on rising hate crimes across the United States.
The US Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing to address growing numbers of attacks against minority religious and ethnic groups in the United States. While Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) delivered a presentation condemning anti-Israel protests on college campuses, an angry demonstrator stood up and hurled expletives targeted at the Jewish community.
“F—king Jews and the Israelis themselves!” the man shouted, apparently frustrated and angry at Cruz for focusing on the deluge of reported antisemitic attacks following Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel.
“Talk about the 40,000 [casualties in Gaza]. Talk about all these people. Why is [this presentation] about antisemitism? F—k the law,” the agitator said before being escorted out by Capitol Police.
“We now have a demonstration of antisemitism. We have a demonstration of the hate,” Cruz responded.
Cruz then slammed Democrats for exhibiting what he described as weakness on antisemitism and vowed to punish antisemites if Republicans secure a Senate majority and the presidency in November. He accused the Biden administration and the US Justice Department of turning a “blind eye” to antisemitism.
“I’ll tell you this. Next year, if there’s a Republican majority on this committee, you will see real leadership. Next year, if there’s a Republican administration, you will see people prosecuted for this sort of violence,” Cruz said.
Senate Republicans criticized Democrats for insisting on broadening the scope of the hearing from antisemitism to a “generic” discussion about all forms of bigotry. Some critics pointed out that Democrats previously condemned use of the phrase “All Lives Matter” in lieu of “Black Lives Matter,” accusing conservatives of attempting to minimize anti-black racism.
Earlier in the hearing, US Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), chair of the Judiciary Committee, defended shifting the focus of the meeting off antisemitism specifically, stating that “prioritizing which group is being discriminated against the worst” is not a “valid exercise of [the committee’s] authority.” He went on to argue that hatred is a problem “that extends beyond the Jewish population” and also affects “the Arab population” and “the Palestinian population.”
Progressive lawmakers have been under fire from pro-Israel voices in the months following the Hamas atrocities of Oct. 7 for allegedly being too soft on Hamas and placing unrealistic restrictions on Israel’s war effort in Gaza. Recent polling suggests that large swaths of Democratic voters have soured on Israel, with many supporting the implementation of an arms embargo on the Jewish state. Younger Democrats, in particular, are reporting significantly greater sympathy for Palestinians than the citizens of Israel. Many Democratic staffers have also reportedly revolted against party officials, demanding that they adopt a more adversarial posture against Israel.
In response, Democratic elected officials have sharpened their rhetoric against the Jewish state, with some suggesting that Israel has committed a “genocide” in Gaza. Democratic politicians have also sought to pressure US President Joe Biden to withhold certain weapons from Israel.
Tuesday’s hearing came amid a record surge in antisemitism across the US since Oct. 7.
The post ‘F—king Jews’: Protester Interrupts Hate Crimes Hearing at US Capitol Over Focus on Antisemitism first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israeli Cyber Expert: Explosives Planted in Hezbollah Pagers in Op Planned Months Before War
An ambulance arrives at a hospital as thousands of people, mainly Hezbollah fighters, were wounded on Sept. 17, 2024 when the pagers they use to communicate exploded across Lebanon. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
An Israeli cyber and national security expert has claimed that the exploding pagers carried by Hezbollah members in Lebanon, which left thousands wounded and killed at least nine people on Tuesday, were part of a sophisticated attack that was planned at least half a year before the war in Gaza erupted.
Dr. Eyal Pinko, a former navy commander and senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, dismissed theories that the blasts were caused by lithium batteries that were hacked to become overheated, and said that the nature of the wounds seen in footage emerging from Lebanon was consistent with those caused by explosives such as TNT and HTB.
“To get this kind of wound you need to have between one to two grams of type of explosives, which is not a big technological issue — you just need to open the beeper,” Pinko said during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday evening. He added that a stable explosive that wouldn’t detonate accidentally would have been inserted into the device, along with a small control mechanism capable of receiving remote commands via a call or page.
Such an operation would have required significant infiltration of Hezbollah’s communication systems, according to Pinko, and planting explosives in pagers would necessitate a serious breach of the supply chain. “This is an intelligence operation that was very well planned, prepared for more than one and a half years,” Pinko said
Pinko alluded to the possibility of a coordinated effort, suggesting that Israel may not have acted alone if it was behind the attack in Lebanon, where Hezbollah wields significant political and military clout. He noted efforts by Germany, France, the US, and the UK to prevent escalation in the region.
Israel has so far been quiet about the explosions, but senior Lebanese officials have blame the Jewish state. So too has Hezbollah, which said Israel would receive “its fair punishment.”
The operation clearly appeared to serve as a message to Hezbollah, showcasing vulnerabilities in its security apparatus and serving as a form of deterrence, Pinko said. “It’s saying that, ‘you’re already being penetrated. We know where you are and what you do. Now look what we can do: In one single shot, in less than a second, we can eliminate almost 3,000 terror operatives.’”
Meanwhile, Sky News Arabia quoted an Israeli military source as saying that Hezbollah’s supply chain was infiltrated with the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, placing PETN, a highly explosive stable material, on the batteries of the devices.
A source close to Hezbollah, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that the pagers were “sabotaged at the source” before being imported by Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist organization based in Lebanon.
Al Jazeera said that the pagers had been in use by Hezbollah operatives for five months.
Brigadier General (res) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), told The Algemeiner that the attack “had the Mossad’s fingerprints all over it.”
“Hezbollah certainly got the message,” Avivi said, adding that war between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group was “imminent.”
However, Pinko said that Tuesday’s coordinated attacks were not a prelude to a full ground invasion into Lebanon and that Israel was likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach. “Israel doesn’t want to go towards further escalation; not in the north, and not with the Houthis in Yemen. They just want to finish the business in Gaza.”
The explosions came hours after a revelation by the Israeli Shin Bet security agency that a Hezbollah cell had infiltrated Israel with the intent to assassinate a former senior defense official in Tel Aviv using a mobile phone, camera, and remote detonation.
Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones at northern Israel almost daily following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists on the Jewish state’s southern region. Since then, both sides have been exchanging fire constantly while avoiding a major escalation as war rages in Gaza to the south.
About 80,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate their homes in northern Israel and flee to other parts of the country amid the unrelenting attacks from Hezbollah.
Israeli leaders have said they seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon but are prepared to use large-scale military force if needed to ensure all citizens can safely return to their homes.
On Monday night, Israel’s security cabinet expanded its war goals to include returning the displaced Israelis from the north.
The post Israeli Cyber Expert: Explosives Planted in Hezbollah Pagers in Op Planned Months Before War first appeared on Algemeiner.com.