Russia is wounded. It is bleeding and embarrassed. For a country with a history of asserting and reasserting its pride, a diminished standing is not what Vladimir Putin had in mind.

Russia’s strategy in confronting the unipolar world presided over by the United States and replacing it with a new world order where old rules no longer apply can succinctly be described as chaos. That approach has worked and delivered spectacular victories for Russia, which has been expanding its influence in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and South America.

The last four American presidents have been unable and at times unwilling to stop the pace of Russia’s expansion. It looked like in the fight for world order, the West stood no chance.

Then came the quagmire in Ukraine, which Russia spun as another form of chaos, and finally the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, the pillar of Russia’s expansion in the Middle East. Suddenly, it turns out, nobody, not even Russia, controls chaos and the fires started by the Kremlin may actually burn the arsonist.

The loss of Syria came, to repeat the words of Ernest Hemingway, “gradually and then suddenly.” The civil war in Syria started in 2011. In 2015, when it looked like the regime of Bashar al-Assad may not survive, Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity to reinsert Russia back into the Middle East. Russia intervened and saved the regime in Damascus.

The latest bout of instability began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas stormed and massacred communities in the south of Israel. It is unclear if Russia had its hand in planning any part of the attack, but it definitely encouraged Hamas’ behavior by supporting Hamas in international forums, giving its full support to Iran, and openly welcoming Hamas’ leadership in Moscow. Given the Kremlin’s close relationship with Hamas and Russia’s intelligence connections with Iran and Hezbollah, it is difficult to assume Russia had no idea about Hamas’ plans.

After October 7, Russia did everything in its power to prolong and escalate the conflict. It sided with the critics of Israel in  international forums. It condemned every action Israel has taken in self defense. It supported Hezbollah and Iran militarily.

Given the vast quantities of modern Russian weapons found by the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon, Russian support was not relegated to warm words and propaganda only. Russia’s plan was to inflame the Middle East even further. It wanted to draw Israel and the United States into direct conflict with terror proxies and Iran. Absolute chaos in the Middle East served Russia’s interest to divert American resources elsewhere from Europe, and to gain maximum freedom of action in Ukraine. And it almost achieved that goal — until the chaos came for Moscow.

From Stalin onward, Soviet and then Russia’s foreign policy is the reflection of its domestic struggles. Vladimir Putin, like most of his predecessors, spent too much time dealing with domestic “enemies.” Like Stalin, he succeeded in crushing all domestic dissent. That achievement, however, accustomed him to the environment where he, as the only real player, controls the time and rules.

Putin lost any respect for or fear of the United States, he believed Israel to be nothing more than America’s puppet, and stopped paying attention to “small” pieces of the puzzle, such as Syria. His view of America, at least its current administration, was not completely wrong.

However, Israel’s willingness to fight for its survival even against American wishes likely surprised Putin. Perhaps old Soviet condescension towards the Jewish State played a role. Pushed too far by the threats from all sides, Israel, in a series of masterful blows, eliminated Hezbollah as a military force (at least for the moment). Back in 2015, Hezbollah saved Assad from defeat. It provided the boots on the ground — fighters willing to die to save the regime. Now that force was demoralized, fighting for its own survival. The rebels sensed that weakness and with Turkey’s help and encouragement, sent Assad packing for his “dacha” in Moscow.

It is unclear if Russia’s bases will remain in Syria. They may — as whoever will control Syria in the near future may find it useful to play Russia against the US and Iran. However, Russia’s status in Syria will diminish significantly. The very same chaos that brought Russia back to the Middle East seems to have expelled it as suddenly, a mere decade later.

Putin was looking forward to the “reset” provided by Donald Trump and his desire to negotiate some agreement over Ukraine. Russia was approaching the future negotiations from a position of growing strength. That was only a month ago. Vladimir Putin feels personally humiliated by Assad’s collapse. Betraying allies was exclusively an American thing. That is not the case anymore. Putin will try to improve his world position before the talks over Ukraine commence. He is angry and may become reckless. Georgia and Moldova provide two immediate opportunities to re-asset Russia’s standing. The outgoing and new administrations must be vigilant and ready for Russia, the wounded maestro of the chaos, to strike back.

The author lives and works in Silicon Valley, California. He is a founding member of San Francisco Voice for Israel.

The post A Threat From Russia: The Wounded Maestro of Chaos May Strike Back first appeared on Algemeiner.com.