It was so obvious from the outset the goal of the commercial was noble.
‘An incredibly volatile time’: From Iran to Yemen, how the Israel-Hamas war is sparking violence across the Middle East
WASHINGTON (JTA) — A conflict that started on a tiny perimeter of land on Oct. 7 is, less than four months later, reverberating throughout the region, from Turkey in the north to Morocco in the west, Iran in the east and Yemen in the south.
“This is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday at a press conference. “I would argue that we’ve not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.”
The epicenter of the Israel-Hamas conflict remains Gaza, where tens of thousands have been killed, and where much of the population is displaced and at risk of famine. Hamas’ invasion of Israel killed some 1,200 people, and more than 200 soldiers have died in the months following Oct. 7. As the war has continued, momentum toward an extended truce and hostage release has mounted.
But because of the war, the broader region is changing, too. The rivalries, intimacies and enmities among the different peoples and religious communities in the Middle East have been churning for millennia. Now, as in other times of crisis, they are threatening to erupt into a broader war that could ensnare the United States.
Here’s a rundown of how the Gaza war is sparking, or inflaming, conflicts across the region.
Iran’s proxies take aim at U.S. troops
The strike last weekend by an Iran-backed militia, which killed three American soldiers in Jordan, demonstrated how central Iran has become to the conflicts unfolding across the Middle East. Believed to be on the precipice of nuclear weaponization, Iran is the eminence grise in the current war: Hezbollah in Lebanon is its proxy and it has funded and trained Hamas and the Houthis.
Since Oct. 7, Hezbollah has engaged Israeli forces in a constant exchange of fire. Syria, another Iran ally, has fired rockets on the Golan Heights, the plateau Israel seized in the 1967 Six-Day War and subsequently annexed.
Israel has fought back against Hezbollah and other threats. Iran and Syria blamed Israel for a strike last month in Damascus that killed five members of Iran’s paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. Iran “reserves its right to respond to the organized terrorism of the fake Zionist regime at the appropriate time and place,” its foreign ministry said.
That strike came weeks after what Iran said was an Israeli attack on Damascus, which killed another top IRGC figure.
The strike on American troops came from an Iranian-backed militia in Iraq. Since Oct. 7, those militias have launched more than 150 attacks on American troops, with the United States counter-striking against the militias’ bases. Like the Houthis and Hezbollah, the militias say they are motivated by Israel’s war with Hamas.
Iran also exchanged fire with Pakistan two weeks ago, aiming its strikes at separatist groups. Eleven people died in the strikes.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that Iran may be flexing its muscles as it feels besieged by American counterstrikes against its Iraq-allied militias as well as alleged Israeli strikes on Damascus. In addition, a massive Islamic State attack last month at a memorial for Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani killed nearly 100 people.
“It has to do, I think, with Iran’s overall threat perception in the region rising. And at the same time, feeling the need – as a result of domestic and external pressure – to respond,” he told Al Jazeera.
Kelly Shannon, a member of the Atlantic Council think tank’s Iran Strategy Project, said recent Iranian-backed strikes were the country’s “attempt to project strength at home and to its allies and proxies, as well as to issue a warning to its enemies that it will use force to defend its interests.”
Tensions simmer on the Lebanese border
For Israel, Hezbollah presents the most immediate threat aside from Hamas. The Lebanese terror group launched missiles at Israel’s north the day after the war began. The barrage led to Israel’s evacuation of tens of thousands of Israelis from the northern perimeter, joining families displaced by the Gaza war.
Agence France Presse estimates that at least 175 people have been killed in Lebanon, including 130 Hezbollah fighters. At least nine Israeli soldiers and four civilians have also been killed.
Hezbollah’s commander, Hassan Nasrallah, has cast his group’s attacks as an aid to Hamas as they divert Israeli forces from Gaza. “Some would like Hezbollah to engage in an all-out war, but I can tell you: What is happening now along the Israeli-Lebanese border is significant, and it is not the end,” he said in November.
Israeli cabinet ministers have mulled launching a preventive war in Lebanon, and polls have shown substantial support for such a strike. But defense officials in Israel, as well as the Biden administration, have cautioned against it. Israel and Hezbollah last fought a war in 2006.
“If Hezbollah chooses to start an all-out war, it will by its own volition turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in December, referring to two cities in Gaza.
Nasrallah has reason to refrain from all-out war: The organization he leads, which is the country’’s preeminent militant group and political force, is increasingly unpopular in Lebanon after decades of neglect and corruption. It is also depleted after years of assisting the Assad regime in the Syrian Civil War.
That doesn’t mean the situation is stable. Nasrallah promised retaliation after Israel assassinated one of the top Hamas officials while he was under Hezbollah’s protection last month. He issued another warning less than a week later after Israel killed one of the top Hezbollah commanders in the country’s south.
Conflict escalates with the Houthis in Yemen
The Houthi militia, which controls much of Yemen after years of civil war, has launched almost daily attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, ostensibly to pressure Israel into drawing down its forces in the Gaza Strip. But some of the ships have nothing to do with Israel, or with the United States.
Last month, in retaliation, U.S. and British combat aircraft struck Houthi targets, killing five fighters. There have been forays since then.
“These strikes were designed to disrupt and degrade the capability of the Houthis to continue their attacks on global trade and innocent mariners from around the world, while avoiding escalation,” said a joint statement last week by the United States, the United Kingdom and another 22 countries lending the operations logistical and diplomatic support.
The Houthi strikes on commercial vessels have not flagged. In an impromptu Jan. 18 press conference, a reporter asked Biden if the strikes were working.
“Well, when you say ‘working,’ are they stopping the Houthis? No,” Biden said. “Are they going to continue? Yes.”
Qatar houses Hamas — and pushes diplomacy
If there’s a winner so far in this war, it’s Qatar, the tiny, oil-rich Gulf nation that has gained outsize influence since Oct. 7. Qatar funds Hamas and houses some of its leadership; it also was among the first Gulf nations to establish low-level ties with Israel in the 1990s. It simultaneously has relations with Iran and hosts one of the largest overseas U.S. bases.
That’s made it a key player in efforts to return the hostages and ultimately end the war. Netanyahu reportedly told hostage families last week that he’d like the United States to leverage Qatar into doing more to bring back the hostages.
That earned a rebuke from Qatar’s foreign minister, but they’re still committed to negotiations — and the United States is committed to Qatar, with Blinken calling the country “indispensable.” Despite the criticism, Israeli officials acknowledge Qatar’s centrality, meeting with its representatives last weekend in multilateral talks over a hostage deal.
U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin, the influential Jewish Maryland Democrat who has been a leading advocate for the hostages, said Qatar was key to any solution.
“Qatar obviously has been involved with Hamas in economic, strategic and ideological ways,” Raskin said in an interview. “So it can use its leverage to get the hostages back and to change the brutal dynamics of this situation.”
Jewish communities in the United States are also urging Qatar to stay in the game. Several hundred Washington area Jews rallied recently outside the Qatari embassy in Washington, asking for greater efforts to free the hostages. More rallies are planned for Friday outside Qatari missions in Washington, New York and Ottawa.
“The goal was to simultaneously express appreciation and frustration,” said Ron Halber, the director of the Greater Washington Jewish Community Relations Council, which organized the rally. “The appreciation for the role that Qatar played and the initial release of hostages and frustration that it’s been over a month, and that over 130 people are still languishing.”
Israel seeks a future agreement encompassing Saudi Arabia and beyond
When they discuss the “day after” the war in Gaza, Israel and the United States frequently refer to a role for Middle Eastern nations that either have relations with Israel — or are close to establishing them.
On that list are Egypt and Jordan, which have long-standing peace treaties with Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, a wealthy partner that Biden hopes will lead funding for reconstruction in Gaza.
Egypt borders Gaza, making it an essential part of any solution. Jordan borders the West Bank — a territory Israel hopes to keep calm despite spiking unemployment and a rise in Israeli counter-terror raids in the territory that have killed hundreds of Palestinians. This week, Israeli troops entered a West Bank hospital in disguise and killed three Hamas operatives.
But Israel’s desired partner to spearhead the “day after” in Gaza is Saudi Arabia. Israel and the kingdom appeared to be on track to sign a treaty before the war broke out, a would-be signature accomplishment that Netanyahu hopes to salvage, in part through working with Saudi Arabia to set up a new government in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia has stressed that if Israel wants relations, it will have to agree to Palestinian statehood. That’s something Biden wants, too.
“We need stability” for Israeli-Saudi normalization, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told CNN last week “and stability only will come through resolving the Palestinian issue.”
Netanyahu and his far-right partners have publicly rejected Palestinian statehood. But a middle ground of sorts may be emerging. Israeli outlets reported this week that a clandestine group of businesspeople has sketched out a plan whereby a postwar Israeli military government would give way to a new Palestinian government in the territory set up with the help of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and others.
Could that lead to a Palestinian state? Netanyahu has so far said no, though that could change, writes Ben Caspit, an Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer, in an article laying out the details of the plan.
“We must remember that Netanyahu knows his days are numbered,” Caspit wrote, alluding to the prime minister’s low poll numbers. “His legacy at present is the Oct. 7 massacre… Steps toward an accord with Saudi Arabia, and some kind of progress on the Palestinian front could help change, a bit, the impression he will leave on the pages of history.”
Hamas Unlikely to Reject Ceasefire but Will Demand Israeli Withdrawal: Source
The Hamas terrorist group is unlikely to reject a Gaza ceasefire proposal it received from mediators this week, but will not sign it without assurances that Israel has committed to ending the war, a Palestinian official close to the talks said on Thursday.
Qatari and Egyptian mediators presented Hamas this week with the first concrete proposal for an extended halt to fighting in Gaza, agreed with Israel and the United States at talks in Paris last week. Hamas has said it is studying the text and preparing a response.
The Palestinian official said the Paris text envisions a first phase lasting 40 days, during which fighting would cease while Hamas freed remaining civilians from among more than 100 hostages it is still holding. Further phases would see the release of Israeli soldiers and the handover of bodies of dead hostages.
“I expect that Hamas will not reject the paper, but it might not give a decisive agreement either,” said the Palestinian official speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Instead, I expect them to send a positive response, and reaffirm their demands: for the agreement to be signed, it must ensure Israel will commit to ending the war in Gaza and pull out from the enclave completely.”
The head of the Hamas political unit in exile, Sami Abu Zuhri, told Reuters in a message that the group had nothing to add since it announced two days ago that it was studying the truce offer.
Such a long pause would be a first since Oct. 7, when Hamas fighters attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and capturing 253 hostages, precipitating an Israeli offensive that has laid waste to much of Gaza. Health officials in the enclave said on Thursday the confirmed death toll had risen above 27,000, with thousands more dead still lying under the rubble.
The only pause in the fighting so far, at the end of November, lasted only a week. International aid agencies have pleaded for an extended respite to alleviate a humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave, where nearly the entire 2.3 million-strong population has been made homeless.
The big gap between the two sides appears to be over what would follow any agreed truce. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed not to pull troops out until “total victory”, which he defines as eradicating Hamas.
Hamas says it will not sign up to any temporary truce unless Israel commits to a withdrawal and permanent end to the war.
In a sign of the seriousness of the proposal, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has said he will travel to Cairo to discuss it, although no firm date has been given for his trip.
The post Hamas Unlikely to Reject Ceasefire but Will Demand Israeli Withdrawal: Source first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
Should schools suspend students for chanting ‘From the river to the sea’? A federal investigation in Minnesota will test the issue.
(JTA) – A suburban Minneapolis school district is facing a federal investigation for Islamophobic discrimination after suspending two Muslim students who chanted “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.”
The case at Edina Public Schools has divided local Jews and Muslims and is the latest in an expanding list of Title VI investigations relating to the Israel-Hamas war by the U.S. Department of Education. Investigations of two other educational institutions were also announced on Wednesday.
“From the river to the sea” is a common chant at pro-Palestinian rallies and has sparked debate. Some Jewish groups say the phrase is antisemitic for endorsing the elimination of the state of Israel, while pro-Palestinian groups say it is a peaceful call for coexistence.
One member of Congress, Democrat Rashida Tlaib, was censured for using it. Another, Republican Elise Stefanik, said it was a call for genocide at a congressional hearing that led to the resignations of two elite university presidents.
The investigation in Edina will pit those dueling perceptions against each other. Other Title VI complaints, filed on behalf of Jewish students, have argued that schools and universities must take disciplinary action against students who use phrases like it.
Taken together, the cases may compel the federal government to determine whether such phrases create a hostile environment for Jewish students — or whether disciplining students who use it constitutes anti-Muslim discrimination.
The Minnesota chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a Muslim civil rights and advocacy group, filed the complaint in November after two high school students were suspended for chanting the phrase during an Oct. 25 pro-Palestinian walkout. CAIR-MN’s director, Jaylani Hussein, confirmed to JTA that the investigation was in response to the organization’s complaint.
CAIR-MN said it filed the complaint because the students were disciplined “for participating in protests and speaking up for Palestine.” It alleged that other students who have “expressed similar sentiments” were not suspended.
“For those of us who are using that phrase, it is contextualized in the way we see it: 75 years of occupation,” Hussein told TC Jewfolk, a local Jewish publication. Hussein also organized a protest of an Edina school board meeting in December to push back against the suspensions; the protesters chanted the phrase at the meeting.
“Anyone who believes that this is a way to have a violent approach to the freedom of Palestinians, that’s not what we’re calling for, not chanting for,” he said. “But everyone has the right to interpret things on their own.”
In a statement to JTA, the Edina school district said it has “unwavering support” for students’ rights to free speech and assembly. The district added that it also has “strong policies prohibiting any type of discrimination” for categories of people protected by state law.
“Our core beliefs in Edina Public Schools are grounded in the inherent dignity of all people,” the statement said. “We value and appreciate the diversity of all of our students. Edina Public Schools deeply condemns islamophobia and antisemitism. We will not tolerate hateful or inappropriate comments or behaviors and will work diligently to provide a safe and inclusive environment for our students and staff.”
The district has said it considers the phrase “From the river to the sea” to be antisemitic, and that it disciplined the students on those grounds after repeatedly warning them not to use the phrase. The walkout was reportedly preceded by an Instagram post saying Israel’s war in Gaza constituted ethnic cleansing and genocide. The post reportedly read, “Not speaking up is giving the green light to the Zionists.”
The Jewish Community Relations Council of Minnesota and the Dakotas says it did not push the district to suspend the students. But its director, Steve Hunegs, told JTA in a statement, “We appreciate that the school district upheld their code of conduct and protected their Jewish students from antisemitism.”
Another JCRC staffer told TC Jewfolk he also considers the phrase antisemitic and “a Hamas chant with genocidal consequences.”
The Department of Education does not comment on ongoing investigations but has said that it opens investigations for every qualifying complaint it receives and that opening an investigation does not mean the complaint has merit.
The other Title VI investigations announced this week both involve allegations of antisemitic speech during pro-Palestinian rallies, and in statements. Both complaints — regarding the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Binghamton University in New York — were filed by the same person: Jewish conservative activist Zachary Marschall, editor-in-chief of the right-wing college watchdog website Campus Reform. He has no personal connection to either school.
These investigations are the fifth and sixth to be prompted by Marschall, who has filed 21 complaints against universities alleging antisemitic discrimination since Oct. 7. Excerpts of the Wisconsin and Binghamton complaints published on his own website indicate that they both relate to activism by campus chapters of Students for Justice in Palestine.
The Wisconsin complaint concerns student activists who chanted “Glory to the martyrs” and “Liberate the land by any means necessary” in the days after the attacks. It also refers to a statement from the school’s SJP chapter that cast doubt on reports of Hamas terrorists raping Israelis. The statement added, “It is the right of any colonized and oppressed people to pursue liberation from their oppressors, including through armed resistance.”
By failing to take more decisive action against the students who used this language, Marschall wrote in his complaint, the university had failed to protect Jewish students.
“‘Martyrs’ in this context are terrorists who were killed attempting to murder Jews and it is obvious that ‘by any means necessary’ includes brutality such as the murder, torture, and rape that occurred on October 7,” he wrote in the complaint, as related by Campus Reform. (Marschall has declined to make the full text of his complaints available to JTA.)
In response, a UW-Madison spokesperson told JTA that the university “condemns antisemitism in all its forms.”
The spokesperson added, “The complaint against UW–Madison was not filed by a member of our community but instead by an outside organization that has filed complaints against several other institutions of higher education.”
Marschall’s Binghamton complaint, similarly, cites what he calls “very clear threats to Jewish students” and names an Oct. 25, 2023, SJP-led “Walk out for Palestine” protest where one student was recorded saying, “Israel is worse than Nazi Germany.”
A Binghamton spokesperson told JTA the school is cooperating with the investigation and “does not tolerate antisemitism or discriminatory acts directed at any individual based on their race, religion, national origin or other protected categories.”