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Could — and Should — Israel Strike Iran’s Nuclear Program Before January 20?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro meets with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Oct. 24, 2024. Photo: Miraflores Palace/Handout via REUTERS

Iran’s nuclear program is advancing rapidly. According to the Institute for Science and International Security’s November 21, 2024, report, Iran has enough uranium to further enrich to weapons-grade uranium for 10 nuclear weapons within a month, and for 16 bombs within five months.

Furthermore, Iran could produce 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium — the amount required for one bomb – in as little as one week.

These alarming timelines, coupled with Iran’s diminished air defenses and lack of any substantial regional active proxy right now that it can activate against Israel with the exception of the Houthis in Yemen, present a rare strategic window for preemptive action following Israel’s recent military achievements against Hamas and Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime.

Delaying action risks that Iran will continue to creep toward the nuclear threshold and potentially take secret breakout action, which would fundamentally alter the region’s balance of power. With its proxy agenda in ruins, Iran’s weakened regime may be tempted to fall back on its nuclear program as an “immortality potion” against external threats.

A nuclear-armed Iran would quickly embark on a program to rebuild its shattered proxies and reconstruct the Iranian ring of fire around Israel while bullying Sunni powers into submission and seeking to destabilize them. A nuclear Iran would likely shield its proxies and allies, especially Hezbollah, under a nuclear umbrella. Striking now would prevent this scenario while Iran’s proxy networks remain severely weakened.

Following significant setbacks to Iran’s air defenses and missile production infrastructure in Israel’s October 26 strikes, Iran is currently extremely vulnerable. Israel achieved near-uncontested aerial supremacy in Iranian skies during the October 26 strikes, demonstrating the feasibility of further operations.

A swift, decisive strike may outpace international responses or potential restrictions from the incoming Trump administration, allowing Israel to maintain operational independence.

On the other hand, a unilateral Israeli strike might trigger prolonged missile exchanges with Iran itself, in a continuation of the long-range firepower exchanges of blows between Tehran and Jerusalem.

In addition, it could be argued that acting without the explicit backing of the United States or other allies may strain diplomatic ties and limit Israel’s ability to mitigate fallout from the strike. Should Iran choose to disrupt the global energy market, the fallout would be even more severe.

The incoming Trump administration, set to assume power on January 20, offers Israel a determined partner for addressing Iran’s nuclear threat. President Trump has historically favored a hardline, maximum pressure stance on Iran, and his administration is likely to pursue aggressive policies, including reimposing maximum pressure sanctions and bolstering military cooperation with Israel.

As such, those arguing to hold off on strikes point out that Trump’s administration may provide diplomatic cover for future Israeli strikes, shielding it from international condemnation and facilitating follow-up measures.

Furthermore, the Trump administration could expedite the delivery of critical military assets that would improve the quality of Israeli strikes, such as F-15IA fighter jets and KC-46A refueling tankers, enhancing Israel’s operational long-range capabilities for sustained action against Iran.

A joint approach with the US would amplify the effectiveness of economic, diplomatic, and military measures against Iran, creating a comprehensive campaign to halt its nuclear ambitions.

With US backing, Israel could deter retaliation from Iran’s proxies, as Tehran would face the prospect of direct US involvement in any escalation.

And yet, delaying action risks Iran’s once again using negotiations as a cover to legitimize its nuclear program and achieve breakout later on as it advances the program to the point where it would be significantly more difficult to neutralize.

Iran’s increasingly advanced centrifuges in operation in Natanz and Fordow make daily progress toward enriching uranium to the 60% level, and it is no major step to go from there to military-grade uranium. By some estimates, Iran is six months away from a crude nuclear device and around 18 months away from an operational nuclear warhead that it can install on a delivery mechanism (missiles).

The Trump administration may initially prioritize diplomatic engagement or prefer to focus on challenges from Russia and China, creating delays or limiting operational scope.

Iran’s current vulnerabilities may diminish over time as it repairs its defenses and missile infrastructure. A delayed strike could face greater resistance and higher operational risks.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently emphasized the centrality and existential nature of Iran’s nuclear threat, warning that failure to address it would exacerbate other security challenges. While recent strikes demonstrated Israel’s operational capabilities, the question of timing remains pivotal.

If Iran’s nuclear advancements continue unchecked, Israel risks facing a fait accompli — a nuclear Iran that begins rebuilding its path toward its ambition of Israel’s collapse by the year 2040, as the infamous clock in Tehran indicates.

At the same time, waiting for American diplomatic and potential military support could lead to a better strike opportunity.

Israel’s choice between striking Iran’s nuclear program before January 20 or waiting for Trump’s second term presents no easy answers. Immediate action offers a chance to neutralize an existential threat while Iran is vulnerable but carries the risks of escalation, isolation, and limited international support. Waiting suggests stronger diplomatic and military backing but risks Iran’s advancing its nuclear capabilities beyond the point of no return.

Israel must weigh these factors carefully. And while the decision must be heavily influenced by intelligence on the real-time status of Iran’s nuclear program, Israeli decision makers must take into account the danger of unknown unknowns when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program.

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane’s Defense Weekly and JNS.org. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post Could — and Should — Israel Strike Iran’s Nuclear Program Before January 20? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Celebrities Help ‘Spotlight’ Holocaust Survivors, Their Testimonies in New NYC Portrait Exhibit

Some of the portraits included in “Borrowed Spotlight” that feature Jennifer Garner, Nicola Peltz Beckham, and David Schwimmer with Holocaust survivors. Photo: Shiryn Ghermezian/The Algemeiner

A new portrait series and exhibition that opened in New York City on Tuesday showcases Holocaust survivors paired up with some of the most notable figures in media, fashion, and entertainment, in an effort to preserve survivor testimonies and amplify their stories, as well as to help combat antisemitism.

The portraits in “Borrowed Spotlight,” which is on display at the Detour Gallery, were captured by South African-born, renowned fashion photographer Bryce Thompson. They debuted ahead of Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah), which begins on Wednesday night and marks 80 years since the end of World War II. The photographs feature portraits of survivors alongside prominent Jewish and non-Jewish figures such as Cindy Crawford, Jennifer Garner, Billy Porter, Wolf Blitzer, Chelsea Handler, Jenna Dewan, Barbara Corcoran, Nicola Peltz Beckham, Scooter Braun, David Schwimmer, Martha Grant, Ashley Benson, Josh Peck, George Stephanopoulos, Sheryl Sandberg, and Julius Erving.

The recognizable names heard testimonies from the Holocaust survivor they were paired with and then posed for photographs together with the survivor. A total of 18 celebrity and Holocaust survivor-paired portraits are in the series, and they were all taken by Thompson in 2023 and 2024. The exhibit features these large-scale portraits but also additional behind-the-scenes photos and other elements that aim to educate and inspire the public.

One section showcases notes written by some of the Holocaust survivors about life, hope, and reflection. In one such note that was on display, Holocaust survivor Risa Igelfeld, who is 107 years old, wrote: “I am writing this to urge the world to bring only positive thoughts to one another and let love flow.”

“Holocaust survivors are few and far between. Special people with special stories, and I really felt like they need to be told. [And] firsthand was really important to me,” Thompson, who is not Jewish, told the large crowd that attended the exhibit’s opening on Tuesday night. “Hearing a story from someone who has told a story is not the same as sitting in a room with someone who lived through something.”

Thompson told The Algemeiner he was originally hoping to only include non-Jewish celebrities in the portraits because “I wanted non-Jewish people standing up for Jewish people.” But once the project started, Jewish celebrities reached out to him and said they wanted to participate in the portrait series. He also admitted that he had a hard time getting some celebrities on board for the project.

“It wasn’t as easy as I had hoped, but the ones who did say ‘yes’ said [it] willingly and happily, and we were lucky to have them,” he said.

The Holocaust survivors in the series include natives of Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Belgium, Romania, and one man who was born in a Budapest ghetto basement during a bombing raid in 1944. The photographs feature survivors of the Warsaw Ghetto, Auschwitz and Bergen-Belsen concentration camps, and one person who survived 12 concentration camps. After surviving the genocide of World War II, some of these Holocaust survivors went on to have large families, become graduates of MIT, rocket designers, entertainment lawyers, writers, acclaimed sculptors, tailors, members of the Israeli Air Force, doctors of clinical psychology, and Holocaust educators. The photo series also highlights a survivor of the Farhud pogrom that targeted Jews in Baghdad, Iraq.

The goal of the portrait series and exhibit is to take the spotlight off the featured celebrities and instead use it shed some light on the Holocaust survivors, to help magnify their testimonies and help them reach a larger audience, especially the next generation. “In these pairings, recognition is redirected, and the attention so often given to fame is instead used to illuminate history,” read a description of the exhibit that was on display at its entrance. “The result is a series of intimate portraits and conversations where past and present collide, where silence is broken, and where remembrance becomes an act of defiance against forgetting.”

Photo: Sabrina Steck

Brazilian model Daniela Braga is featured in the portrait series alongside Czech Holocaust survivor Gabriella Karin, who survived the war as a teenager by hiding in the one-bedroom apartment of a non-Jewish young lawyer who was located directly across the street from the Nazi-Slovak Gestapo. Born and raised Catholic, Braga converted to Judaism and her husband is Jewish. She told The Algemeiner that hearing about Karin’s experience during the Holocaust made her “very emotional because growing up in Brazil, we learned just a little bit about the Holocaust and World War II. But to have the experience to actually talk to someone who lived through it, it’s something so mind-blowing to me.”

“I could hear the pain in her voice,” Braga added. “It made me happy in the end that she’s alive and is able to tell her story to all of us, to share with other people. When we say, ‘Never Again,’ it really has to be never again.”

Braga also told The Algemeiner she met a Jewish people for the first time ever when she moved to New York 15 years ago.

“I’ve been immersed in this [Jewish] culture for 15 years. The Jewish culture is something very close to my heart. Anything that I can do to help the Jewish community, I will do it,” she said while explaining why she wanted to participate in Thompson’s portrait series.

Jewish actress Kat Graham is photographed in the portrait series with Holocaust survivor Yetta Kana. Graham spoke at the exhibit opening and said Thompson’s portraits capture “truth, resilience, and humanity.” The “Vampire Diaries” actress – whose maternal grandmother fled Europe during the Holocaust – additionally said the photographs “build a bridge between generations; a conversation between memory and legacy.”

“This project is about remembrance but it’s also about responsibility,” she told the crowd. “We are the torchbearers now. It is up to us to keep these stories alive and to ensure that history is never forgotten. That the voices of survivors, like Yetta, are not only heard, but felt. I invite you to see, to feel, and to carry these faces with you, long after you leave … Let’s never forget.”

The opening of “Borrowed Spotlight” on Tuesday night was attended by other well-known figures including Gregg Sulkin, Remi Bader, Moti Ankari, and “Real Housewives of New Jersey” stars Margaret Josephs, Melissa Gorga, and Lexi Barbuto. Sulkin, who is Jewish, told The Algemeiner he wanted to be in the portrait series but ultimately was unable to participate in Thompson’s project because of scheduling conflicts.

The photographs in the exhibit, as well as additional ones not on display, were compiled into a coffee table book available for purchase that features a foreword by Crawford. Proceeds from the book sales will support efforts to educate younger generations about the Holocaust. Proceeds from a private auction on Monday night of select prints in the series will benefit Selfhelp, which provides services and assistance to living Holocaust survivors in New York, and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.

There are more than 200,000 Holocaust survivors worldwide. Nearly 50 percent of all Holocaust survivors will die within the next six years, while 70 percent will no longer be alive within 10 years, according to a new report released this week by the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany (Claims Conference). There are estimated to be more than 1,400 alive today around the world who are over 100 years old.

“Borrowed Spotlight” will be open at the Detour Gallery through Sunday.

The post Celebrities Help ‘Spotlight’ Holocaust Survivors, Their Testimonies in New NYC Portrait Exhibit first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Iran Fortifying Buried Nuclear Sites as Talks With US Continue, Report Says

Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024, in this screengrab taken from video. Photo: WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Iran is ringing two deeply buried tunnel complexes with a massive security perimeter linked to its main nuclear complex, a report said Wednesday, amid US and Israeli threats of attack.

The Institute for Science and International Security released its report based on recent satellite imagery as the US and Iran prepare to hold a third round of talks this weekend on a possible deal to reimpose restraints on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.

US President Donald Trump, who pulled the US out of a 2015 pact designed to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, has threatened to bomb Iran unless a deal is quickly reached that would ensure that same goal.

Trump’s withdrawal prompted Iran to breach many of the pact’s restraints. Western powers suspect it is pursuing the capability to assemble a nuclear weapon through enrichment of uranium to high fissile purity, which Tehran denies.

David Albright, the institute president, said the new perimeter suggested that the tunnel complexes, under construction beneath Mount Kolang Gaz La for several years, could become operational relatively soon.

Tehran has barred access to the tunnels to inspectors of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who are monitoring its nuclear program.

This has raised concerns that they could be used to store Iran‘s stockpile of highly enriched uranium or undeclared nuclear materials, and advanced centrifuges that could quickly purify enough uranium for a bomb, Albright said.

IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi, on a visit to Washington, told reporters on Wednesday that those possible uses by Iran of the tunnel complexes “cannot be excluded” and the agency has repeatedly raised the issue with Tehran.

Iran, however, rejects an IAEA legal obligation requiring a member state to inform the agency of any intention to set up a nuclear facility even if radioactive materials have not been introduced, he said. “They are telling us, ‘It is none of your business.’”

“It is obvious that this is a place with numerous and important activities” related to Iran‘s nuclear program, Grossi added. “It’s a bit of a ping pong, but the digging continues, the building continues.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the chief negotiator with the US, said in a post on X in apparent response to the new report that Israel and unnamed “Special Interest groups” were looking to “derail diplomacy.”

Iran has said that advanced centrifuges would be assembled in one complex in place of a facility at the nearby Natanz plant, the centerpiece of its nuclear program, destroyed by sabotage in 2020.

The complexes, Albright said, are being built at depths much greater than Iran‘s deeply buried uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, near the holy city of Qom.

Commercial satellite images taken on March 29 showed hardened entrances to the complexes, high wall panels erected along the verges of a graded road encircling the mountain peak, and excavations for the installation of more panels, the report said.

The north side of the perimeter joins the Natanz plant security ring, it said.

The ongoing construction at the complexes appears to underscore Tehran’s rejection of demands that any talks with the US lead to the total dismantlement of its nuclear program, saying it has the right to peaceful nuclear technology.

Israel has not ruled out a strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities in coming months, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that any talks must lead to the complete scrapping of Iran‘s program.

Iran‘s nuclear energy chief Mohammad Eslami, referring to concerns about the vulnerability of its nuclear program, on Tuesday appeared to refer to projects such as the construction of the new security perimeter around the tunnel complexes.

“Efforts are ongoing [to] expand protective measures” at nuclear facilities, Eslami was quoted by Iranian state media as saying at an event marking the anniversary of the establishment of Iran‘s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The post Iran Fortifying Buried Nuclear Sites as Talks With US Continue, Report Says first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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China Backs Iran’s Nuclear Talks With US, Opposes ‘Illegal’ Sanctions

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi attends the 14th EAST Asia Summit Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting at the National Convention Center, in Vientiane, Laos July 27, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Chalinee Thirasupa/File Photo

China supports Iran holding talks on its nuclear program with the United States and opposes the use of force and “illegal” unilateral sanctions to try to resolve the issue, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday.

Beijing is willing to deepen coordination and cooperation with Tehran on international and regional affairs, Wang told Iran’s Abbas Araqchi during talks in the Chinese capital, according to a ministry statement.

“The Chinese side commends Iran’s promise not to develop nuclear weapons and respects Iran’s right to utilise nuclear energy peacefully,” Wang said.

The meeting came ahead of further US-Iran nuclear talks this Saturday and after Washington imposed sanctions on some Chinese refiners for buying Iranian oil in recent weeks.

The Iranian foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Araqchi had informed his Chinese counterpart of the latest situation of the “indirect talks between Iran and the US” and thanked China for its stance on Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions.

US President Donald Trump has sought to pursue a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, including driving Iranian oil exports to zero.

In 2015, Iran agreed to temporarily curb its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions in a deal with the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany. But in 2018 Trump, a year into his first term, pulled out of the pact.

Tehran and Washington started negotiations again earlier this month with the aim of placing limits on Tehran’s nuclear program.

China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has backed Tehran as US pressure mounts.

The US has so far sanctioned two China-based small independent “teapot” refiners for purchasing Iranian crude.

Last month Chinese imports of Iranian oil surged to an all-time high as buyers stocked up amid worries that further US sanctions on Tehran could tighten supplies.

China buys some 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, traders and analysts have said. The two countries have built a trading system that uses mostly Chinese yuan and a network of middlemen, avoiding the dollar and exposure to US regulators.

Wang and Araqchi also discussed US tariffs during Wednesday’s meeting.

“The US’s abuse of tariffs has completely lost popularity and isolated itself from the international community,” Wang said.

“The international community needs to stand united more than ever to uphold multilateralism and safeguard the basic norms governing international relations,” he told Araqchi.

The post China Backs Iran’s Nuclear Talks With US, Opposes ‘Illegal’ Sanctions first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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