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Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year?
A general view shows the Lebanese capital Beirut during the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah, announced on November 27, 2024, expires, there are many questions about the next steps in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army is delaying its mission to take control of the area south of the Litani River, and Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire period beyond 60 days.
Lack of motivation to resume hostilities
It appears, at least superficially, that Hezbollah’s current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. The organization has been undergoing a process of self-examination in light of its defeat in the campaign it initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, as an act of solidarity with Hamas’ barbaric “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of the day before.
The Shiite organization is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion’s share of the organization’s command and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, the boasting about the great defeat of the “Zionist enemy” rings hollow. It is a facade constructed for domestic purposes and nothing more.
Internalizing the dramatic extent of the damage to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed, both defensive and offensive, has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the order of battle and the array of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for maintaining a “second strike” capability against Israel.
Prior to the decimation of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the extraordinary Israeli intelligence operation of September 17, 2024, involving the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah’s headquarters and field ranks was the beginning of the undermining of its status as the main military entity in Lebanon.
The collapse of the Shiite “axis of evil”
The most severe of the many blows Hezbollah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite “axis of evil” in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hezbollah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems, along with the paralysis of additional strategic facilities on October 26, 2024, dramatically accelerated the undermining of Tehran’s grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
Lebanese sources have noted that President Assad’s relations with Hezbollah and even with the Iranians had cooled even before October 7, 2023. Assad was interested in reducing the Iranians’ scope of action in Syrian territory, as well as in limiting Hezbollah’s activity in his country. It is possible that the clock had already begun to tick toward the disintegration of the “axis of evil.” The possibility cannot be ruled out that covert Israeli contact with Assad through an internet communication channel, the existence of which was recently made public, was a factor in accelerating the unraveling of the Shiite axis.
Hezbollah searches its soul
What is Hezbollah’s leadership pondering at this difficult time? They’re not thinking about establishing a commission of inquiry, of course. First and foremost, Hezbollah has to analyze why the war had such disastrous results from its perspective. It will have to consider the security breaches that allowed Israel to penetrate its frameworks so deeply and redesign its strategic approach to continuing the conflict with Israel. This will require tackling dilemmas concerning both the rebuilding of the military force and the training of new fighters. The group will also have to formulate a plan to rebuild the civilian environment in southern Lebanon, where there is a traditional Shiite majority.
The search for a way forward
Hezbollah’s top brass cannot ignore growing voices within the organization advocating a new approach that stresses the movement’s Lebanese identity. If adopted, such an approach could mean a reduction of the organization’s traditional dependence on Iran and more practical and substantial integration into domestic Lebanese politics.
There is no doubt that the election of Joseph Aoun as president, after a prolonged governmental vacuum, and the placement of Nawaf Salam as a leading candidate for prime minister intensify the constraints on Hezbollah’s path in Lebanon. They also constitute a ringing slap in the face for Iran.
A time of opportunity for the moderate Sunni axis
Iran’s current weakness in the Middle East region lays the foundation for the promotion of a pragmatic Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, with Lebanon potentially the first test case of that geostrategic change.
Although it is too early to eulogize Hezbollah as an influential sub-state organization in Lebanon, it seems that President-elect Aoun’s ambitions to implement “one army for one state” and, by implication, disarming Hezbollah with international support give strong signals about the group’s future. It can be cautiously estimated that it will never again be what it once was.
Constraints on Hezbollah
The Western powers’ involvement, particular the leading role of the United States in shaping the face of a renewed Lebanon, will likely serve as a barrier to Hezbollah’s radical wing, which has not abandoned its aspiration of reestablishing its military power as well as Iranian influence in Lebanon.
Still, for the time being, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will renew fire on Israel. This is undoubtedly a manifestation of the remarkable blow the IDF struck against Hezbollah, which until recently was considered the most powerful terrorist army in the world.
Dr. Raphael Buchnik-Chen is a retired colonel and author of the books Diplomat and Secret Man and The Intelligence Failure and the Yom Kippur Surprise. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Iran Moves to Restore Ties With Bahrain, Egypt Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi attends a press conference following a meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Russia, April 18, 2025. Photo: Tatyana Makeyeva/Pool via REUTERS
Iran has begun efforts to restore diplomatic relations with Bahrain and Egypt, signaling a potential shift in regional alliances as tensions escalate across the Middle East.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Iran has officially begun the process of restoring diplomatic ties with Bahrain and Egypt after years of strained relations.
Since Iran normalized relations with Saudi Arabia in 2023, Araghchi said Tehran has made several requests to renew ties with Bahrain, with ongoing efforts expected to soon yield positive results.
In 2016, Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Iran, following Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut relations after an attack on its embassy in Tehran, which was sparked by Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric.
In 2023, Tehran and Riyadh reached an agreement in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and diplomatic missions.
Since then, the Islamic Republic has taken further steps to strengthen its relationship with Bahrain. Last year, Araghchi met with Bahrain’s King, Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa, in the country’s capital to discuss bilateral ties and the latest regional developments.
Bahrain normalized relations with Israel, which Iranian leaders regularly say they seek to destroy, in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords.
As for Egypt, the country severed diplomatic relations with Tehran in 1980 following Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution and Egypt’s recognition of Israel.
Araghchi said ties between the two countries have strengthened significantly, with regular high-level meetings and continuous dialogue.
Iran’s expanding relationship with Egypt comes at a time of increased tension between Cairo and Jerusalem, amid Israeli accusations that Egypt has violated their peace agreement.
Israeli defense officials have previously expressed growing concern over Cairo’s military buildup and armed presence in the Sinai Peninsula.
These concerns come amid escalating tensions between Israel and Egypt since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, particularly over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, where Cairo has demanded Jerusalem withdraw its forces.
While details about Egypt’s military buildup remain unclear, “satellite images have shown the movement of tanks and battalions that exceed the limits set by the Camp David Accords,” Mariam Wahba, research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told The Algemeiner.
Under the 1979 peace treaty, Egypt can request permission from Israel to deploy more than the 47 battalions allowed. However, some estimates suggest that there are currently camps for 180 battalions.
“The Camp David Accords have long been a pillar of peace and stability in the Middle East,” Wahba explained. “A breakdown of the agreement would have serious implications, not just for Israel and Egypt but for the broader region. It could embolden actors like Iran and its proxies to exploit tensions and could lead to increased militarization along Israel’s southern border.”
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EU to Review Agreement With Israel Over Gaza Concerns, Kallas Says
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas attends a press conference with Moldova’s President Maia Sandu following their meeting in Chisinau, Moldova, April 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Vladislav Culiomza
The European Union will review a pact governing its political and economic ties with Israel due to the “catastrophic” situation in Gaza, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday after a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers.
International pressure on Israel has mounted in recent days amid complaints about the lack of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza and as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government launched a new military offensive against the Hamas terrorist group in the enclave.
Kallas said a “strong majority” of the ministers meeting in Brussels favored such a review of the agreement with Israel, known as an association agreement, in light of events in Gaza.
Diplomats said 17 of 27 EU members backed the review, which will focus on whether Israel is complying with a human rights clause in the agreement, and was proposed by Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp.
“The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The aid that Israel has allowed in is of course welcomed, but it’s a drop in the ocean. Aid must flow immediately, without obstruction and at scale, because this is what is needed,” Kallas told reporters.
There was no immediate comment from Israel on the EU decision. Israeli officials have said their operations in Gaza are necessary to destroy Hamas, the Palestinian group responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. Hamas also kidnapped several hostages that Israel is trying to free from captivity in Gaza.
Under the pact, which came into force in 2000, the EU and Israel agreed that their relationship “shall be based on respect for human rights and democratic principles, which guides their internal and international policy.”
In a letter proposing a review, Veldkamp raised concerns about Israeli policies “exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.”
He also cited “statements by Israeli cabinet members about a permanent presence that alludes to a reoccupation of (parts of) the Gaza Strip, Syria and Lebanon” and a “further worsening of the situation in the West Bank.”
On Tuesday, Dutch minister Veldkamp called the review “a very important and powerful signal,” echoing sentiments of officials from France and Ireland.
But others did not back a review. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky suggested the bloc could hold a meeting with Israel under the association agreement to raise concerns.
Kallas said EU sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank had been prepared but have so far been blocked by one member state. Diplomats said that country was Hungary.
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Syrian Leadership Approved Return of Executed Spy Eli Cohen’s Belongings to Israel, Sources Say
Nadia, widow of Israeli spy Eli Cohen, looks at photographs depicting her late husband during an interview with Reuters in Herzliya, Israel, Oct. 6, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Syria’s leadership approved the handover of the belongings of long-dead spy Eli Cohen to Israel in a bid to ease Israeli hostility and show goodwill to US President Donald Trump, three sources told Reuters.
Israel announced its recovery of the trove of documents, photographs, and personal possessions relating to Cohen on Sunday, saying its spy agency Mossad had worked with an unnamed foreign intelligence agency to secure the material.
However, a Syrian security source, an adviser to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and a person familiar with backchannel talks between the countries said the archive of material was in fact offered to Israel as an indirect gesture by Sharaa as he seeks to cool tensions and build Trump’s confidence.
Cohen, who was hanged in 1965 in a downtown Damascus square after infiltrating Syria’s political elite, is still regarded as a hero in Israel and Mossad’s most celebrated spy for uncovering military secrets that aided its lightning victory in the 1967 Middle East war.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Cohen on Sunday as a legend and “the greatest intelligence agent in the annals of the state.”
While Israel has long sought to recover his body for reburial at home, the return of his archive held for 60 years by Syrian intelligence was hailed by Mossad as “an achievement of the highest moral order.”
Israel has not publicly revealed how the archive came into its possession, saying only that it was the result of “a covert and complex Mossad operation, in cooperation with an allied foreign intelligence service.”
Netanyahu’s office, Syrian officials, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Syria’s role in Israel‘s recovery of the Cohen archive.
COHEN DOSSIER
After rebels led by Sharaa suddenly ousted President Bashar al-Assad in December, ending his family’s 54-year-long rule, they found the Cohen dossier in a state security building, according to the Syrian security source.
Sharaa and his foreign advisers quickly decided to use the material as leverage, the source added.
The Syrian security source said Sharaa had realized that the Cohen archive was important to the Israelis and that its return could amount to a significant diplomatic gesture.
Ending Israeli attacks on Syria and improving relations with the United States and other Western countries are vital for Sharaa as he seeks to revive his shattered country after 14 years of civil war.
Israel regards Sharaa and his ex-insurgents, who once formed the al Qaeda faction in Syria, as unreconstructed jihadists. Israeli forces staged an incursion into border areas last year and have repeatedly bombed targets in support of Syria’s minority Druze sect.
This month, Reuters reported that the United Arab Emirates had set up a backchannel for talks between Israel and Syria that included efforts to build confidence between the sides.
There have also been other indirect channels for talks, according to two people familiar with the matter.
In the talks, Syria agreed to measures including returning the remains of Cohen as well as three Israeli soldiers killed while fighting Syrian forces in Lebanon in the early 1980s, a person familiar with those talks said. The body of one of those soldiers, Zvi Feldman, has been returned, Israel said last week.
The return of the Cohen archive came in the context of those confidence-building measures and was done with Sharaa’s direct approval, the person said.
Last week, Trump held a surprise meeting with Sharaa in Saudi Arabia where he urged him to normalize ties with Israel and announced that he would lift sanctions on Syria.
Syrian officials have said they want peace with all states in the region, and Sharaa confirmed this month that Damascus had carried out indirect talks with Israel via states it has ties with in order to calm the situation.
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