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Donald Trump: Back to the Future on Iran Policy
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi meets with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran, Iran, Nov. 14, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Tehran’s theocrats must be terrified. That’s a good thing.
Despite the limited and lackluster commentary on Donald Trump’s electoral victory in the Iranian press and by officials, regime elites must now face the fact that the candidate they sought to kill is set to re-assume the presidency on January 20, 2025.
During his fist term, Trump functioned like a bull in a china shop on Iran policy, and it worked. The administration pulled out of the fatally flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal, designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, showed the strength of US unilateral sanctions against the Iranian economy, and even killed Quds-Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, Tehran’s chief terrorist-strategist. And for good measure, Trump drew a sharp contrast with his predecessor by strongly supporting Iranian protestors. In so doing, he broke long-held taboos among the Washington establishment about foreign backing being a kiss of death. And he did it all without triggering World War Three.
A second Trump administration is reportedly set to resume its “maximum pressure” policy against the Islamic Republic, the broad contours of which are encompassed by the above moves. Returning to this policy would course-correct the outgoing Biden administration’s approach, which has been defined by light sanctions enforcement, a preference for de-escalation over deterrence, and turning a blind eye to Iran’s growing atomic infrastructure and nuclear saber-rattling.
But the resurrection of this policy cannot be divorced from the challenges of the present. 2025 will be harder than 2016-2020 were. Iran today is on the nuclear threshold, with an enriched uranium stockpile and centrifuge capacity assessed by experts to be able to produce sufficient weapons grade uranium for one bomb in a week, and up to 15 in five months.
Iran is also increasing its missile capabilities, hinting that it might develop longer-range projectiles that could threaten the European continent and the American homeland. It is also relying on trans-national criminal syndicates rather than traditional proxies, trying everything from Mexican drug cartels to Azeri gangs to Canadian bikers, to reach onto American soil. Had the Islamic Republic been deterred or felt it had more to lose than to gain from these threats and plots, it would not have embarked on them.
For deterrence to work, a credible military threat is needed. Given that deterrence is first and foremost psychological, threats alone may be insufficient for an adversary as resolute as the Islamic Republic and one with the impression of America as a risk-averse power. In order to avoid a larger conflict with the Islamic Republic, the US will counterintuitively be required to push back earlier and harder against the full-spectrum of Iran-backed threats to change the impression of American risk-tolerance for Iranian national security decision-makers.
A pure “management” approach towards Tehran that aims to contain rather than roll-back the full-spectrum of these threats will only lead to Washington being managed by Tehran. Now is the time to push past mere management as a strategy and work to roll back threats.
The maximum pressure strategy during Trump’s first term began to lay the groundwork to do precisely that. By targeting Iran’s oil, natural gas, petrochemical, and industrial metal exports, the administration aimed to put the macroeconomic squeeze on Tehran, shrinking the overall ability to resource threats. This campaign reduced Iran’s 2.9 million barrels a day oil exports from 2018 to 775,000 by 2021. Trump’s policies also led to a decline in non-oil exports, with Iran’s total exports dropping by 12.8% in 2020.
Iran’s oil exports surged under the Biden administration, largely due to a relaxed sanctions enforcement posture and the prospects for nuclear diplomacy. As a result, Iran’s annual oil revenue reportedly soared, rising from $16 billion in 2020 to $53 billion in 2023. In August 2023 alone, Iran’s exports to China peaked at an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day — a sharp increase from the lower levels seen during the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. As a reminder, China has been the most importer purchaser of Iranian oil — increasingly marked as “Malaysian” — for over a decade.
Iran’s petroleum export value and volume under the Biden administration also drastically increased, countering the sharp decline seen amid Trump-era sanctions. Between 2021 and 2023, Tehran generated an estimated $144 billion from petroleum sales, a stark contrast to the mere $16 billion in 2020. The increase has been substantial across multiple categories, with crude oil and condensate exports rising over threefold, reaching 1.59 million barrels per day, while Iranian petroleum product exports expanded over 50% in the same timeframe.
The new administration should work overtime to plug the economic lifelines Tehran has benefitted from in the illicit petrochemical and oil trade. The Trump administration previously warned of sanctions against Chinese entities involved in importing Iranian oil, and this stance should be maintained if Beijing continues enabling Tehran’s sanctions evasion, which in turn underwrites Tehran’s global terrorist apparatus and regional “ring of fire” against Israel. Likewise, the next administration must take a firm stand, emphasizing the severe consequences for any person, bank, or business aiding the Islamic Republic’s illicit trade.
The United States should marry this economic pressure with a political strategy that aims to multiliterate maximum pressure with its trans-Atlantic and five-eyes partners. First and foremost, this must begin by commencing a diplomatic track on day-one with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran by triggering the snapback mechanism set to expire this October in UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
The administration should also impress upon its allies to leverage their individual counterterrorism authorities and designate the IRGC in its entirety as a terrorist organization. After more than a decade of deliberation, Canada has done precisely this. Other US partners should be encouraged to follow suit.
Additionally, Washington should impose strict limitations on the entry of Iranian officials into the US for United Nations-related matters and closely monitor their movements. To further isolate the Islamic Republic diplomatically, the US should press its European counterparts to either reduce the size of Iran’s diplomatic missions or expel Iranian diplomats and shutter these embassies altogether.
While former US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, who is reportedly leading Trump’s transition team at the State Department, claims the incoming administration isn’t aiming for regime change, the brittleness of the deeply unpopular regime in Tehran and the impact maximum pressure can have will mean nationwide anti-regime demonstrations like those seen in 2019 and 2022 are more a matter of when and not if.
To recalibrate US strategy toward Iran, Washington must find ways to empower the Iranian street against the state, and in a manner in conjunction with American values and broader regional interests. Marrying “Maximum Support” for the Iranian people with maximum pressure against the regime may provide the necessary pincer that can force the Islamic Republic into settling for suboptimal outcomes or better yet, making mistakes that can be capitalized upon.
By leveraging enduring internal opposition to the regime, Washington can bolster the efforts of the Iranian people in their fight for a government that reflects their views, values, and interests. The next administration must have the audacity to imagine what a Middle East without the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism looks like, one which distracted time, attention, and resources away from rising security challenges in the Asia-Pacific.
To assist Iranians in defining their own destiny, the US should provide them access to free, reliable Internet through the provision of VPNs and collaboration with private companies like Starlink. Intelligence support can also help protestors outwit the regime’s forces, enabling them to leverage their non-violent resistance effectively. Additionally, the US should coordinate with allies to provide cyber support, targeting regime communications infrastructure, disabling surveillance systems, and disrupting the security forces’ command and control. Giving Iranians a tactical advantage ensures they are better equipped to confront a well-armed authoritarian regime, especially the next time Iranians take to the streets en masse.
The Islamic Republic is a determined adversary that means what it says when it chants “death to America” and “death to Israel.” The same applies to its attempts to take President Trump’s life. Only by building on the successes from his first term does the incoming president stand a chance at meaningfully confronting Iran, and maximizing the fears in Tehran about what will come next.
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Wife of Former Maccabi Tel Aviv Manager Says Her Family Isn’t Safe Living in Ireland Because of His Ties to Israel
Robbie Keane during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Leeds United at the London Stadium, London, England on 21 May 2023. Photo: IMAGO/Pro Sports Images via Reuters Connect
Claudine Keane, wife of former Irish soccer player and previous Maccabi Tel Aviv manager Robbie Keane, opened up on Wednesday in a series of posts on X about feeling unsafe living in Ireland with her family and the harassment her husband has received for formerly leading an Israeli soccer team.
Robbie, Ireland’s record goalscorer Robbie Kean, resigned as manager of Maccabi Tel Aviv in June after leading the club for only a year. He helped the team win the Israeli club title as well as the qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League. “The club agreed to Robbie Keane’s request not to activate the extension of his contract,” Maccabi Tel Aviv said at the time.
Robbie was criticized by anti-Israel supporters in Ireland for staying on with the Israeli team following the start of Israel’s war with Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip – a war that was launched in response to the Hamas-led deadly terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Robbie recently faced intense backlash again for his ties to Israel when he was invited earlier this week to present caps to soccer players at an international training camp for Ireland’s national team. Critics in Ireland claimed Robbie is “a disgrace to the country and happy to support an apartheid state,” accused him of taking “blood money to work for genociders” in Israel and was described as a “Zionist rat.”
The Keane family is now living in Dublin since Robbie left Maccabi Tel Aviv. In a number of lengthy posts on X, Claudine said that since her family has moved to Ireland, “I feel extremely uncomfortable and sometimes intimidated by some messages again from a small group that are hurtful, threatening and dangerous.”
“They not only put genuinely our safety and wellbeing as a family at risk they are using a sportsperson as a political pawn and in doing so inciting hated by making absolutely outrageous accusations,” she added. “I always felt safe in Ireland until now. I always wanted to move home being my kids up here and enjoy the Ireland that both me and my husband love. They are taking every bit of enjoyment and safety away from me and my family.”
The abuse targeting Robbie comes after Maccabi Tel Aviv fans faced violent antisemitic attacks in Amsterdam last week, in what appeared to be a coordinated attack following a match between the Israeli team and their Dutch rivals Ajax. Israeli fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv who were visiting Amsterdam to watch the game were run over by cars, beaten, chased with knives and sticks and tormented by anti-Israel and pro-Palestinian groups of men, some of whom forced their victims to say “Free Palestine” in order to be spared from abuse.
Also last week, the Irish Parliament passed a non-binding motion that accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Robbie faced intense condemnation from pro-Palestinian activists for not resigning as manager of Maccabi Tel Aviv when the war broke out. However, Claudine insisted on X: “We love our country, we are not politician’s we have never done any wrong.” She also revealed that Robbie resigned as manager of Maccabi Tel Aviv for the safety of his family.
She said her husband “resigned from a job he loved and did well to protect us his family in Ireland & Because none of us signed up to this situation that happened months into his role, it was a nightmare!” She also called for the hatred to end against her husband said, “Please stop this absolute witch hunt … We all want peace!!”
“It seems to be trendy in media in Ireland to absolutely try to assassinate my husbands character very maliciously,” she added, saying that the “absolute bias, malice and defamation over the years it’s nothing short of a disgrace.”
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Neo-Nazi Found Guilty of Vandalizing Oregon Synagogue
An American flag waves outside the US Department of Justice Building in Washington, DC. Photo: Al Drago via Reuters Connect
Federal law enforcement officials conbicted a white supremacist who repeatedly vandalized a synagogue in Eugene, Oregon during spree of hate in 2023, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on Tuesday.
Motivated by antisemitism, Adam Edward Braun, 34, graffitied the Temple Beth Israel synagogue twice in Sept. 23, spraying “1377” for its resemblance to “1488,” a reference to Adolf Hitler and a white nationalist slogan. He came back several months later, that time to vandalize the glazing of the synagogue’s entrance. However, he abandoned that activity after spotting a surveillance camera and opted to graffiti “white power” elsewhere on the grounds.
A search of Braun’s home in Jan. yielded copious evidence of his guilt. Authorities also found “several items and writings” that were antisemitic, further implicating him in the crimes.
“Braun…pleaded guilty to two counts of intentionally defacing a synagogue and one count of attempting to intentionally damage the synagogue because the synagogue was a place of religious worship for Jewish people,” the Justice Department said in a press release issued on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Oregon added that Braun has agreed to “pay restitution in full to the victim.” In addition to prison, Braun also faces a maximum $100,000 fine, the total amount of which will be determined when he is sentenced in Feb. by US District Court Judge Michael J. McShane, who was appointed by former President Barack Obama (D) in 2013.
In October federal prosecutors helped convict a gunman who shot two Jewish men as they exited a synagogue in Los Angeles.
Jaime Tran, 30 — an affiliate of the “Goyim Defense League” hate group — had went on an antisemitic shooting spree in Feb. 2023, attempting to murder two Jewish men in the Pico-Robertson section of Los Angeles. Prior to the crimes, Tran called Jews “primitive” and told a former classmate, “Someone is going to kill you, Jew” and “I want you dead, Jew.” According to the Justice Department, he even described himself as a “ticking time bomb,” broadcasting his murderous ideations to all who knew him.
After declining to fight the federal government’s case against him, Tran pled guilty in June to four charges the DOJ described as “hate crimes with intent to kill” and “using, carrying, and discharging a firearm” in the commission of an act of violence. His sentencing of 35 years ensures that he will not again be free until the year 2059.
“After two years of spewing antisemitic vitriol, the defendant planned and carried out a two-day attack attempting to murder Jews leaving synagogue in Los Angeles,” US Attorney General Merrick Garland said at the time. “Vile acts of antisemitic hatred endanger the safety of individuals and entire communities, and allowing such crimes to go unchecked endangers the foundation of our democracy itself.”
In August, DOJ arrested and charged a Jordanian national who allegedly attacked an energy facility and threatened to bomb businesses that he deemed supportive of Israel. According to federal prosecutors, the alleged crimes of Hashem Younis Hashem Hnaihen, 43, began in early summer, with his vandalizing small businesses in Orange County, Florida, and leaving “Warning Letters” addressed to the US government in which he vowed to “destroy or explode everything here in America. Especially the companies and factories that support the racist state of Israel.”
In late June, DOJ said , Hnaihen breached an energy facility in Wedgefield, Florida, where he “smashed” scores of solar panels and damaged other “electronic equipment.” The spree of infrastructure sabotage lasted “for hours,” the department added, destroying $700,000 worth of technology. In his last alleged act, in early July, Hnaihen left a final warning letter at an industrial propane gas distribution depot located in the city of Orlando. The Orange County Sheriff’s Department arrested him on July 11.
Hnaihen faces five charges, four related to his threatening letters and one for wreaking havoc on the energy facility, crimes for which he may, if convicted, spend the rest of his natural life in prison. His “Warning Letters” alone, each of which carries 10-year maximum sentences, would keep him behind bars for 40 years, at which time he will be an octogenarian. His fifth charge carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Controversial Israel-France Soccer Match in Paris Attracts Extremely Low Turnout of Fans
Fans display a Palestinian flag and an Israel flag during the France v Israel soccer match at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France on Nov. 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes
A tense match that took place in Paris on Thursday between Israel and France’s national soccer teams drew weak attendance against the backdrop of heightened security surrounding the stadium, recent violent attacks against Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam, and an anti-Israel protest in Paris.
Stade de France was barely a fifth full and only 16,611 fans were in the stands, which is nowhere near the stadium’s 80,000-person capacity, according to Reuters. In the stands were some 100 Israel soccer fans, who watched their home country and France end the UEFA Nations League match with a 0-0 draw in the French team’s first game at the Stade de France in 17 month. The Israeli soccer fans ignored a warning from the Israeli government against attending international sporting events, specifically Thursday’s game.
“We had to play this game in a context that we would like not to have. It’s obviously weird to play in front of such a [small] crowd,” France manager Didier Deschamps said after the match, as reported by ESPN.
Thursday’s match took place despite pressure from pro-Palestinian activists last week to cancel the game and following a pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel rally that took place in Paris on Thursday night near the soccer stadium. Several hundred people at the protest condemned France for hosting the soccer game and criticized French leaders, such as President Emmanuel Macron for attending the match, according to EuroNews.
Thursday’s match was also attended by former Presidents of France Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, former president of the regional council of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand and former Minister Manuel Valls. “We will not give in to antisemitism, anywhere. And violence, including in the French Republic, will never prevail, nor will intimidation,” Macron told BFM TV channel before the game.
Hoping to prevent a repeat of the violent antisemitic attacks that took place in Amsterdam last week targeting Israeli soccer fans who attended a Europa League game involving Maccabi Tel Aviv, 4,000 French security personnel were deployed inside and outside Stade de France and on public transport on Thursday. Despite the increased security, there was a brief scuffle between a small number of fans shortly after kickoff. The clashes, in which some punches were thrown, involved some fans who had oversized Israeli flags draped over their backs and though it was not clear what caused the altercation, security intervened and quickly restored calm in the stands, according to ESPN. Some anti-Israel fans in the stands also booed and whistled when Israel’s national anthem “Hatikvah” played before the start of the game.
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