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Donald Trump: Back to the Future on Iran Policy
Tehran’s theocrats must be terrified. That’s a good thing.
Despite the limited and lackluster commentary on Donald Trump’s electoral victory in the Iranian press and by officials, regime elites must now face the fact that the candidate they sought to kill is set to re-assume the presidency on January 20, 2025.
During his fist term, Trump functioned like a bull in a china shop on Iran policy, and it worked. The administration pulled out of the fatally flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal, designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, showed the strength of US unilateral sanctions against the Iranian economy, and even killed Quds-Force Commander Qassem Soleimani, Tehran’s chief terrorist-strategist. And for good measure, Trump drew a sharp contrast with his predecessor by strongly supporting Iranian protestors. In so doing, he broke long-held taboos among the Washington establishment about foreign backing being a kiss of death. And he did it all without triggering World War Three.
A second Trump administration is reportedly set to resume its “maximum pressure” policy against the Islamic Republic, the broad contours of which are encompassed by the above moves. Returning to this policy would course-correct the outgoing Biden administration’s approach, which has been defined by light sanctions enforcement, a preference for de-escalation over deterrence, and turning a blind eye to Iran’s growing atomic infrastructure and nuclear saber-rattling.
But the resurrection of this policy cannot be divorced from the challenges of the present. 2025 will be harder than 2016-2020 were. Iran today is on the nuclear threshold, with an enriched uranium stockpile and centrifuge capacity assessed by experts to be able to produce sufficient weapons grade uranium for one bomb in a week, and up to 15 in five months.
Iran is also increasing its missile capabilities, hinting that it might develop longer-range projectiles that could threaten the European continent and the American homeland. It is also relying on trans-national criminal syndicates rather than traditional proxies, trying everything from Mexican drug cartels to Azeri gangs to Canadian bikers, to reach onto American soil. Had the Islamic Republic been deterred or felt it had more to lose than to gain from these threats and plots, it would not have embarked on them.
For deterrence to work, a credible military threat is needed. Given that deterrence is first and foremost psychological, threats alone may be insufficient for an adversary as resolute as the Islamic Republic and one with the impression of America as a risk-averse power. In order to avoid a larger conflict with the Islamic Republic, the US will counterintuitively be required to push back earlier and harder against the full-spectrum of Iran-backed threats to change the impression of American risk-tolerance for Iranian national security decision-makers.
A pure “management” approach towards Tehran that aims to contain rather than roll-back the full-spectrum of these threats will only lead to Washington being managed by Tehran. Now is the time to push past mere management as a strategy and work to roll back threats.
The maximum pressure strategy during Trump’s first term began to lay the groundwork to do precisely that. By targeting Iran’s oil, natural gas, petrochemical, and industrial metal exports, the administration aimed to put the macroeconomic squeeze on Tehran, shrinking the overall ability to resource threats. This campaign reduced Iran’s 2.9 million barrels a day oil exports from 2018 to 775,000 by 2021. Trump’s policies also led to a decline in non-oil exports, with Iran’s total exports dropping by 12.8% in 2020.
Iran’s oil exports surged under the Biden administration, largely due to a relaxed sanctions enforcement posture and the prospects for nuclear diplomacy. As a result, Iran’s annual oil revenue reportedly soared, rising from $16 billion in 2020 to $53 billion in 2023. In August 2023 alone, Iran’s exports to China peaked at an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day — a sharp increase from the lower levels seen during the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign. As a reminder, China has been the most importer purchaser of Iranian oil — increasingly marked as “Malaysian” — for over a decade.
Iran’s petroleum export value and volume under the Biden administration also drastically increased, countering the sharp decline seen amid Trump-era sanctions. Between 2021 and 2023, Tehran generated an estimated $144 billion from petroleum sales, a stark contrast to the mere $16 billion in 2020. The increase has been substantial across multiple categories, with crude oil and condensate exports rising over threefold, reaching 1.59 million barrels per day, while Iranian petroleum product exports expanded over 50% in the same timeframe.
The new administration should work overtime to plug the economic lifelines Tehran has benefitted from in the illicit petrochemical and oil trade. The Trump administration previously warned of sanctions against Chinese entities involved in importing Iranian oil, and this stance should be maintained if Beijing continues enabling Tehran’s sanctions evasion, which in turn underwrites Tehran’s global terrorist apparatus and regional “ring of fire” against Israel. Likewise, the next administration must take a firm stand, emphasizing the severe consequences for any person, bank, or business aiding the Islamic Republic’s illicit trade.
The United States should marry this economic pressure with a political strategy that aims to multiliterate maximum pressure with its trans-Atlantic and five-eyes partners. First and foremost, this must begin by commencing a diplomatic track on day-one with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran by triggering the snapback mechanism set to expire this October in UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
The administration should also impress upon its allies to leverage their individual counterterrorism authorities and designate the IRGC in its entirety as a terrorist organization. After more than a decade of deliberation, Canada has done precisely this. Other US partners should be encouraged to follow suit.
Additionally, Washington should impose strict limitations on the entry of Iranian officials into the US for United Nations-related matters and closely monitor their movements. To further isolate the Islamic Republic diplomatically, the US should press its European counterparts to either reduce the size of Iran’s diplomatic missions or expel Iranian diplomats and shutter these embassies altogether.
While former US Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, who is reportedly leading Trump’s transition team at the State Department, claims the incoming administration isn’t aiming for regime change, the brittleness of the deeply unpopular regime in Tehran and the impact maximum pressure can have will mean nationwide anti-regime demonstrations like those seen in 2019 and 2022 are more a matter of when and not if.
To recalibrate US strategy toward Iran, Washington must find ways to empower the Iranian street against the state, and in a manner in conjunction with American values and broader regional interests. Marrying “Maximum Support” for the Iranian people with maximum pressure against the regime may provide the necessary pincer that can force the Islamic Republic into settling for suboptimal outcomes or better yet, making mistakes that can be capitalized upon.
By leveraging enduring internal opposition to the regime, Washington can bolster the efforts of the Iranian people in their fight for a government that reflects their views, values, and interests. The next administration must have the audacity to imagine what a Middle East without the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism looks like, one which distracted time, attention, and resources away from rising security challenges in the Asia-Pacific.
To assist Iranians in defining their own destiny, the US should provide them access to free, reliable Internet through the provision of VPNs and collaboration with private companies like Starlink. Intelligence support can also help protestors outwit the regime’s forces, enabling them to leverage their non-violent resistance effectively. Additionally, the US should coordinate with allies to provide cyber support, targeting regime communications infrastructure, disabling surveillance systems, and disrupting the security forces’ command and control. Giving Iranians a tactical advantage ensures they are better equipped to confront a well-armed authoritarian regime, especially the next time Iranians take to the streets en masse.
The Islamic Republic is a determined adversary that means what it says when it chants “death to America” and “death to Israel.” The same applies to its attempts to take President Trump’s life. Only by building on the successes from his first term does the incoming president stand a chance at meaningfully confronting Iran, and maximizing the fears in Tehran about what will come next.
The post Donald Trump: Back to the Future on Iran Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Welcome to ‘Paddystine’
JNS.org – The other day, during a discussion with a colleague about the wave of pro-Hamas, antisemitic hysteria sweeping the Republic of Ireland, I unthinkingly quipped that the people of Eire should rename themselves “Paddystinians.” I immediately regretted doing so because the term “Paddy” is an aging pejorative, conjuring up images of Irish drunkenness, the supposed Irish proclivity for casual brawling, and ingrained Irish idiocy—stereotypes any decent person should reject.
As it turns out, I needn’t have worried.
A couple of days after that exchange, I discovered that the hashtag “#Paddystinian” was being eagerly adopted on social media by Irish supporters of Hamas. The accompanying posts were variously obnoxious or downright stupid, with many of those mocking the assertion that their country is antisemitic seemingly unaware of the immortal line spoken by a character in James Joyce’s Ulysses that Ireland “has the honor of being the only country which never persecuted the jews (sic)” because “she never let them in.” (There has, in fact, been a minuscule Jewish presence in Ireland for centuries, numbering the current president of Israel among its offspring, and there have been several episodes of antisemitism during that time, including the present, but Ireland is more or less an instance of the “antisemitism without Jews” phenomenon.)
One might say that Ireland is little different from the rest of Europe when it comes to the volume and the venom of its antisemitism: France, Germany and the United Kingdom, among others, are current examples of a similar trend. But Ireland stands out because of the role of its government in stoking these poisonous sentiments, as well as the fact that antisemitic depictions of Israel sit comfortably in its major political parties across the spectrum. That perhaps explains why Israel has closed its embassy in Dublin.
To my mind, the most grotesque offender in this regard is the Irish president, Michael Higgins. An 83-year-old poet who has carefully cultivated an avuncular image with his three-piece tweed suits and swept back, thinning white hair, Higgins’ high-handed manner is at its most infuriating when he articulates—as he has done on a few occasions since the Hamas atrocities in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023—conspiracy theories about Israel that lean heavily on the theme of shadowy, unaccountable Jewish power. Earlier this year, for example, he blamed a covert Israeli intelligence operation for leaking his fawning letter of congratulations to the Iranian regime’s newly installed President Masoud Pezeshkian and was subsequently too pompous to issue an apology when it was pointed out that the Iranians themselves had publicized his message first. Then, last week, as he accepted the credentials of the new Palestinian ambassador in Dublin, he waxed lyrically about Israeli assaults on the sovereignty of three of its neighbors: Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, where the Israelis apparently “would like, in fact, actually to have a settlement.”
In Egypt? Given that Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula in 1982, not even the most seasoned supporter of Hamas could find actual material evidence that this is Israel’s intention. Higgins had met with his Egyptian counterpart, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, earlier that week, and it’s quite possible that el-Sisi told him something along these lines or had referred to the dispute between Jerusalem and Cairo over the Philadelphi Corridor that runs along the border between Egypt and Gaza. Whatever the content of their conversation, what is absolutely clear is that Higgins has a disposition to believe the most outlandish lies about Israel and that he will respond to any criticism by saying that opposition to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies is not the same as antisemitism—encouraging his audience to think that his beef is with Israel’s leadership and not the Jewish state itself.
But as Dana Erlich, Israel’s ambassador to Ireland, pointed out in a recent interview with an Irish broadcaster, Dublin’s goal has been to undermine Israel’s ability to defend itself by launching lawfare against the Jewish state to chip steadily away at its sovereign rights. Ireland is supporting South Africa’s false claim of Israeli genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague to the point of seeking a redefinition of the term “genocide” in which to shoehorn Israel’s actions against the terrorists of Hamas and Hezbollah, and their Iranian backers. It has promoted anti-Israel measures both domestically and within the European Union. And it has either ignored or mocked the concern that its actions are encouraging the spread of antisemitism in Ireland, including the revival of racial tropes reminiscent of the Nazis.
Two fundamental questions remain. Firstly, why has Ireland adopted this stance? In part, as the Irish commentator John McGuirk recently pointed out, because Ireland is essentially peripheral in the calculations of geopolitics. “We have, for most of our existence, pretended that we can say or do what we like on the international stage because everybody loves us,” he wrote. “The truth is that we’ve been able to be liked because we are irrelevant. Nobody has ever had to choose between Ireland and a powerful ally.”
Even then, as McGuirk argued, this moral grandstanding against Israel has its limits. It was Israel that closed its embassy and not the other way around “because the Irish government knew full well that a formal break in diplomatic relations with Israel would send a signal to the US and the E.U., and Israel’s other powerful allies around the world, that Ireland is a fundamentally unreasonable place that cannot be trusted to be an honest broker when it comes to the world’s only Jewish state.”
Secondly, why the obsession with Israel alone? Not a peep has been heard from the Irish about the revelations coming out of Syria regarding former dictator Bashar Assad’s machinery of murder—something unseen, according to Stephen Rapp, the former U.S. envoy for war crimes—“since the Nazis.” According to my old friend, the Irish writer Eamann Mac Donnchada, both “narcissism,” emanating from Ireland’s belief that the Palestinian war against Israel is a mirror of Ireland’s own struggle against the British, and “ennui,” the lack of purpose that has accompanied Ireland’s growing economic prosperity in recent decades, are key factors here. “Adhesion to [the Palestinian] cause makes many Irish people feel great about themselves while running no physical or economic risks, and that’s what it’s really about,” he wrote.
How should the rest of the world respond, given that, to cite McGuirk again, “not one single thing that the Irish Government has done since Oct. 7, 2023 has impacted Israeli policy one way or another.” Israel, as the offended party, has done what it needs to do. Many Jews have reacted with disgust, but that probably won’t extend to anything more than the odd prohibition on Jameson’s whiskey being served at a synagogue kiddush or bar mitzvah.
As for the United States, traditionally a great friend of Ireland, relations will likely worsen under Donald Trump’s incoming administration because Trump and his team are convinced that Ireland—in the words of future Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick—“runs a trade surplus at our expense.” Israel has nothing to do with that battle. But because Lutnick is a Jew and a noted supporter of Israel, you can rest assured that voices inside and outside the Irish government will eventually draw a connection where none exists. That it’s all so predictable is probably the grimmest joke of all.
The post Welcome to ‘Paddystine’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Tradition or Tragedy?
JNS.org – I am writing these lines from the United States, where I am nearing the end of my latest speaking tour. I’ve been to New York, Toronto, Detroit, Philadelphia, and now Miami.
Coming from South Africa, where we suffer one of the highest murder rates in the world—more than 70 people per day are killed throughout the country—I was nevertheless shocked by the most recent school shooting here in the “land of the free and the home of the brave.” In what is stated by CNN to be “the 83rd school shooting in the USA this year,”15-year-old Natalie Rupnow opened fire at a private Christian school in Madison, Wis., killing a fellow classmate and teacher, and then turned the gun on herself. Besides others who were wounded, two more students were today listed in critical condition.
What on earth would motivate a 15-year-old girl to shoot up her classmates? Where did she get a gun? Were her parents negligent? These and more are the questions Americans are asking themselves.
And in other news this week (I must sound like a news reporter), music megastar Sir Elton John, who was just named TIME magazine’s “Icon of the Year” had this to say about one of the current moral dilemmas still being hotly debated around the world: “Legalizing marijuana in the United States and Canada is one of the greatest mistakes of all time.”
The rock star, who was affected by addiction to cocaine and other drugs in the past, said that his own experience leads him to argue that marijuana is addictive and leads to other drug use. “And when you’re stoned—and I’ve been stoned—you don’t think normally.”
Quite a confession from one of the music legends of our time.
By now, you may be forgiven for wondering what on earth all of this has to do with my usual theme, the Torah portion. Well, this week in Vayeshev, Joseph is sold into slavery and, at age 17, finds himself down in Egypt working for Potiphar, the head of Pharaoh’s abattoirs and butcheries. Here is a youngster of high school age, far away from home, with no family, no support—no one to assist or guide him in life.
Quite remarkably, all on his own, he manages to stay afloat and goes on to succeed at everything he does. Furthermore, when the lady of the house tries to seduce him, he finds the inner strength to withstand temptation.
How did he do it? Day after day, she would beguile him, entice him, try to charm him. And then, when there was no one home and no one would ever know the difference, he still eludes her smooth talk and blandishments. No one knew his origins. He was a stranger in a foreign land; he had nothing to lose. And still, he stood his ground.
Elsewhere, I have written about the image of Joseph’s father, Jacob, which appeared to him at that critical moment, giving him strength and courage just as he felt himself starting to slip and succumb. Is it not extraordinary to see how powerful the influence of parents and grandparents on young minds and hearts can be! In the heat of the moment when most people lose their moral grip and stumble into sin, Joseph was able to keep his head and resist the seduction so many might have fantasized about.
I remember in my own youth struggling with personal life choices. One part of me wanted to be a journalist. But I couldn’t bear to disappoint my father and grandfather, who were devout and dedicated Chassidim, so I decided to give yeshivah a chance. The rest is history. I was inspired by Torah—specifically, by Chassidic philosophy, which answered so many of life’s questions.
The other day in Philadelphia visiting our children, I was able to spend some precious time learning Talmud with my two grandsons, Ari and Tzvi. They understood it well and made me proud. I pray that I can have the same positive influence on them that my grandfather had on me.
This Friday is the 19th of Kislev, which marks the liberation from the antisemitic imprisonment in czarist Russia of the founder of Chabad— Rabbi Schneur Zalman of Liadi—back in 1798. His release and vindication also spelled the beginning of a much broader dissemination of the teachings of Chassidic philosophy throughout Europe.
And the Jewish world has never looked back. Today, a wide range of communities around the world will celebrate this day and are inspired to study his life-changing work—the Tanya—and other profound teachings of Chassidic philosophy.
I can’t help thinking that had young Natalie Rupnow and a younger Elton John had those same influences as Joseph did, or even as I did, they might never have fallen into tragedy and addiction.
We should be eternally grateful for our heritage, our family legacies and the teachings of Torah, both revealed and mystical, that have inspired us and kept us on track and in check throughout the generations.
The post Tradition or Tragedy? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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After Hezbollah Supply Lines Cut in Syria, Tehran Will ‘Reexamine Options’
JNS.org – Iran’s arms supply lines to Hezbollah via Syria have been severed by the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, leading to an unprecedented strategic setback for Tehran and its Lebanese terror proxy, according to observers in Israel.
Tal Beeri, head of Research at the Alma Center, which specializes in Israel’s security challenges in the northern arenas, told JNS on Monday that “we’re talking about a very, very significant blow“ to Hezbollah’s Iranian supply chain.
The first reason for this initial near-term assessment, he said, is that the Syrian territory once controlled by Assad served as Iran’s primary conduit for transporting weapons into Lebanon.
“Practically all the weapons for Hezbollah were funneled through this corridor,” which encompassed land routes, air routes through Syrian airports—possibly including the Russian airbase Khmeimim—and sea routes stretching from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in Iran to northwest Syria, mainly the port of Banias, from where weapons would be delivered to inland depots.
“That’s how the Iranians moved goods to Lebanon. Meaning, effectively, the entry gate of Iranian weaponry on Syrian soil has been cut off,” said Beeri. “In the end, control throughout Syria is in the hands of the rebel factions and Kurds, who, by the way, dominate all of eastern Syria, including the land entry routes. So currently, it is not possible to transfer weapons to Hezbollah through Syria.”
The second factor, he added, is the large-scale air strikes conducted by the Israel Defense Forces, targeting the entire Syrian military and its weapons depots. This prevented “a last-minute quick transfer of relevant weapons into Hezbollah’s hands,” according to Beeri.
“For these two reasons, there is basically a nearly complete severing of the weapon oxygen line to Hezbollah,” he said.
However, Beeri cautioned that Iran and Hezbollah might yet adapt and adjust to the new situation. “I estimate they will recalculate and make new efforts … possibly by attempting direct shipments of weapons to Lebanon” by air or sea. Such efforts could see ships and planes travel to Lebanon from Iran via third-party countries to try and deceive Israeli intelligence,” he added.
In addition, said Beeri, “money trumps ideology.” The Iranians could try to establish connections with rebel factions by buying them out, thereby attempting to rebuild the weapons corridor.
Professor Boaz Ganor, president of Reichman University and founder of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told JNS, “The biography of Ahmad al-Sharaa [aka Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of the largest rebel umbrella group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] points to fundamental hostility toward Israel. His senior membership in Al Qaeda, close to [Abu Musab al-]Zarqawi and [Ayman al-]Zawahiri, could indicate the future trends of Syria under his rule.”
Ganor warned that “we must not let the seemingly pragmatic position he presents recently mislead the world or Israel.”
Addressing moves by Turkey to exploit the situation, Ganor added, “Syria will not be able to exist without the aid of another country or countries. Those countries will become the patron of the new regime, and there is no doubt that Iran will try to bridge past hostilities with the rebels and establish ties with al-Julani through generous economic aid, emphasizing an anti-Israel ideological common denominator and concealing the religious tensions between Sunni and Shi’ite.” (The Syrian rebel factions are mostly Sunni Muslims, whereas Iran is Shi’ite.)
Ganor noted that Iran could have back-door influence on Al Qaeda through the organization’s leader, Saif al-Adel, who sought and received asylum in Iran after U.S. forces entered Afghanistan.
“If al-Julani returns to his ideological roots in Al Qaeda, Iran’s influence on him could grow stronger,” said Ganor. That might enable the reestablishment of the weapons corridor if Iran and the new Syrian regime found common ground, he added.
On Dec. 13, Israel Hayom reported that Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem had acknowledged publicly the impact of Assad’s collapse on the terror group, including the loss of military supply routes in Syria. However, he claimed Hezbollah would work around this and look for new ways to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.
The post After Hezbollah Supply Lines Cut in Syria, Tehran Will ‘Reexamine Options’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.