JNS.org – A recent joint Egyptian-Chinese first-ever joint air force exercise held in Egypt likely contains messages to the United States and should be closely monitored by Israel, Israeli observers have told JNS.

Egypt announced on April 19, 2025, the commencement of the “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” which brought together multirole fighter jets and other types of aircraft from both countries in Egyptian airspace.

While official Egyptian sources did not detail the specific aircraft involved, Chinese state media outlet CCTV confirmed China’s participation with J-10C multirole fighters and aired footage on April 19 showing a J-10C flying alongside an Egyptian MiG-29 over the Wadi Abu Rish air base, located southeast of Cairo.

According to a report by Israel Defense, the Chinese contingent, including aircraft and personnel, received a formal welcome from senior Egyptian commanders upon arrival. The exercise spanned multiple Egyptian air bases and emphasized operational cooperation between the two air forces.

This collaboration was widely interpreted as signaling Egypt’s intention to broaden its security partnerships, potentially looking beyond its traditional, decades-long military alliance with the United States.

At the same time, Brig. Gen. (res.) Professor Jacob Nagel, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, former acting national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former head of Israel’s National Security Council, advised against overstating the drill’s immediate implications while also cautioning against dismissing it entirely.

“I would not attach excessive importance to the drill. On the other hand, I would not completely disregard it,” Nagel told JNS on Wednesday. “I think that the one who perhaps needs to say something to the Egyptians is indeed the USA, which transfers considerable aid to them.”

Nagel stressed the enduring nature of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, due to its importance for both nations, particularly for Egypt’s economy.

“Egypt preserves the peace agreement and it is important to it at least as much as it is important to Israel, certainly economically, so that even in the days of [former Muslim Brotherhood President Muhammad] Morsi, who did not agree to mention the word Israel, did not dare touch the agreement,” he said.

Asked to address recent Israeli concerns about Egyptian military build-up in the Sinai Peninsula, Nagel said the situation should be handled discreetly but firmly.

“Israel does not want to add the Egyptian front to the fronts in which it is currently engaged, but Egypt is a force that must not be underestimated and one must keep a wide-open eye to identify dangers from there, certainly after Oct. 7,” he stated.

Despite these concerns, Nagel said that “this still does not make Egypt a current enemy of Israel. There is a peace agreement between the countries, and even if it is cold, it is very important to both sides.”

The drill occurred against a backdrop of increasing Chinese engagement across the Middle East. Although Beijing has avoided direct military deployments, it has expanded its influence through significant arms sales, diplomatic interventions like the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement it mediated, and extensive infrastructure investments under initiatives such as the Belt and Road.

Dr. Ori Sela, Professor at the Department of East Asian Studies at Tel Aviv University and Senior Visiting Researcher at the INSS, placed the air exercise in the context of a longer history of Sino-Egyptian military relations.

“While the joint exercise is a milestone of sorts for China-Egypt military collaboration, it should be understood through a more general perspective,” Sela explained. “First, China and Egypt have had military relations for a long time. This also includes joint military exercises, albeit the naval dimension was usually the focal point.”

He noted that China conducts similar drills with other states in the Middle East, such as Turkey and the UAE.

Sela also linked the exercise to Egypt’s broader strategy of diversifying its military procurement and partnerships, an effort underway for some time.

“China has also been exporting arms to Egypt, and rumors about sales of more advanced platforms (both aerial—the J10C fighter, and naval— the Type 039A submarine, for example) have been around for some time now,” he noted, adding, “These, however, are part of a longer and more robust diversification effort by the Egyptians.”

At the same time, Sela said, the appearance of the Chinese KJ-500 [Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft] in Egypt now “does hint at a Chinese attempt to project more advanced capabilities to the region, and Israel should monitor this situation closely.”

The exercise does not necessarily mean that Egypt is pivoting away from Washington, but rather is a strategic signal towards its long-time ally, he argued, “that Egypt does have options, and that while the U.S. is sometimes quick to threaten countries and make demands, Egypt is hoping to have the ability to hedge against possible negative moves by the US.”

Sela suggested a path forward for Jerusalem regarding these dynamics, stating, “Israel would be wise to encourage the strengthening of the US-Egypt relationship rather than add fuel to the fire, and, at the same time, its own relationship with Egypt. Driving wedges between Egypt and the US would be a mistake.”

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