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France and Iran Shamelessly Decide the Fate of Lebanon
UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) vehicles drive in Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, southern Lebanon, Oct. 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
In his interview published in France’s Le Figaro on October 15th, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf was quoted as saying his country would be ready to “negotiate” with France to implement United Nations Resolution 1701. That resolution calls for southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state.
We aren’t the only people who noticed the bizarre absence of the actual Lebanese side in those supposed negotiations.
On Friday, October 18th, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati in a startling moment of bravery, called those remarks “blatant interference in Lebanese affairs and an attempt to establish a rejected guardianship over Lebanon.” He also emphasized that such negotiations fall under the authority of the Lebanese state.
Mikati instructed Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib to summon the Chargé d’Affaires of the Iranian embassy in Beirut in response to Ghalibaf’s statements.
It’s worth mentioning that Mikati made no demands towards the French ambassador in Lebanon, although the logical assumption would be to summon him as well and make inquiries as to what exactly made both countries feel so bold as to decide the fate of Lebanon tete-a-tete. Especially considering the fact that Mikati had a meeting with the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Hervé Magro, on October 16th.
Both the French Republic and the Islamic Republic of Iran behave towards Lebanon like it is not an independent state with its own government, but a colony of either of them.
On October 13th, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the escalating crisis in southern Lebanon via phone call. According to Tehran Times, a regime-affiliated media outlet, Pezeshkian noted that Iran held back its efforts, despite the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
This turn of phrase is an admission, of sorts, of Iran’s involvement in the Middle East conflict du jour. Iran generally avoids any direct involvement in regional or world conflicts, using a net of proxies instead, but the current war against Israel has been different.
Despite the fact that France is a Western country, French interests sometimes seem aligned with Iran’s. A two-year investigation by France24 has uncovered that ammunition manufactured by the French company Cheddite was used in Iran during the violent suppression of the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests. The investigation reveals that these cartridges remain widely accessible in Iran, despite European sanctions imposed in 2011.
The same munitions were used against Southern Azerbaijani protesters. This ethnic minority in Iran protested against oppression, discrimination, and erasure of their culture and language.
In 2023, France decided to restart supplying military equipment, such as armored personnel carriers (APCs), to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), despite concerns that this could indirectly benefit Iranian-controlled Hezbollah. The militant group has infiltrated parts of the Lebanese military, raising fears that French-supplied equipment could be used by Hezbollah in conflicts against Israel.
Reports suggest that Hezbollah has previously acquired US-provided military gear intended for the LAF, and critics argue that France’s shipments risk further empowering Hezbollah, which could escalate tensions in the region.
France’s ongoing arms sales to Lebanon, including APCs, are seen as part of a strategy to maintain influence in its former mandate. Critics argued that France, by prioritizing its strategic interests in Lebanon, may inadvertently be fueling regional instability by empowering Hezbollah, which threatens Israel’s security.
US experts conclude that “the danger of arming Lebanon is nothing new. In 2016, the Israeli government presented evidence that Hezbollah was using APCs supplied by the United States to the LAF. In July 2023, the ALMA Research and Education Center reported that weapons and military equipment provided to the Lebanese Army by the aforementioned Western countries had slipped into the hands of Hezbollah.”
At the same time, Iran was supplying huge shipments of Russian-made weapons to Hezbollah, which was getting ready to invade Israel, like Hamas did on October 7th, 2023.
Hezbollah was amassing these weapons near the border, in the area allegedly controlled by the LAF and UN peacekeepers under UNIFIL. Both were supposed to stop Hezbollah from attacking Israel, but failed. France had no problem with that.
Elsewhere, Armenia is also used as a transit station for sanctioned goods to move them between West, Iran, and Russia. Unsurprisingly, France, although keeping an anti-Russia stance, staunchly ignores any and all breaches of economic sanctions committed by Armenia.
Both France and Iran have a common interest to at least impede, if not sidetrack, the upcoming peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. France, which has a history of using Armenians to fight the Turkic nations in the region, fears that after the end of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the former will have no need for the great European protector (rendering the power of the Armenian lobby in France obsolete).
Iran sees Azerbaijan first and foremost as a friend of its archenemy — Israel. This is why Iran has threatened to strike Azerbaijan’s oil refineries in retaliation for potential Israeli military action against Iranian oil fields.
It is odd how the interests of Iran and France converge in different regions. Maybe there is a tangible likeness in their visions and strategies. Two sides of the malevolent colonizer paradigm, constantly searching for ways to exploit those they deem “less than.”
Ariel Kogan is an independent Israeli analyst, and expert on the problems of the Caucasus region and the Turkic countries of the former USSR.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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