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Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran
It was late at night in Iran, when 180 ballistic missiles left their launchpads, briefly entered outer space, and finally descended toward their targets, which covered every square inch of Israel. The attempted carpet-bombing, which took place on October 1, was was the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. Israeli, US, and other allied systems intercepted most, but not all, of the missiles.
Israel launched its long awaited response this past Saturday: revealing both astonishing capabilities, and also a terrifying weakness.
Here’s what you need to know.
At approximately 2:00 AM on Saturday morning, an estimated 140 Israeli aircraft flew toward Iranian air space, and for three hours, struck military targets in multiple waves. This feat should have been impossible for the tiny Jewish state: it required flying almost 1,000 miles, much of it through hostile airspace (including Iraq and Syria), multiple in-air refuelings, and massive intelligence coordination.
Including the aerial refueling tankers, the search and rescue teams, and the fighter jets themselves, this one operation required an estimated 30% to 50% of the Israeli air force. A number of navigators were women, a significant statement given the Iranian regime’s severe limitations on women in its society. By 6:00 AM, all hands had returned home safely.
Code named מבצע ימי תשובה, the operation is often translated poetically as “Operation Days of Repentance” but can also be translated more simply (and equally accurately) as “Days of Answer.” By the Hebrew calendar, Israel’s “answer” to Iran commenced exactly a year and a day after the Iranian backed massacre of October 7.
Even now, new information is still coming out about the targets, but here’s what we know so far: Israel’s first wave took out air defense systems in Iran, Iraq and Syria, including the Russian made S300. These systems cannot be easily replaced, especially with Russia currently dedicating its resources to fighting in Ukraine, which leaves Iran vulnerable to future potential Israeli operations.
The second and third Israeli waves destroyed missile launchers and the factories that built them, presumably diminishing Iran’s ability to launch future attacks. Aside from missile infrastructure, one notable target was a secret Iranian military base in Parchin, which is closely linked to Iran’s nuclear research program; another was the air defenses that protect much of Iran’s oil production. As far as we know, there were no direct attacks on oil production itself, on nuclear facilities, or on Iranian leadership. Based on the latest data, civilian casualties came to a grand total of zero.
The message to Iran is clear: Israel can strike inside Iran: anywhere and at any time. Distance is not a barrier, air defenses are practically irrelevant, and Israel’s intelligence information, enabling pinpoint strikes on important Iranian resources, is impressive.
Yet Israel also telegraphed another message: that despite its significant military capabilities, the IDF does not enjoy the political freedom to actually use them.
Operation “Days of Answer” is the result of weeks of negotiations with the Biden/Harris administration, during which America applied enormous pressure on Israel to spare Iran’s leaders, its nuclear program and its oil production. The result is that Iran has not paid a price for its multiple missile attacks on Israel, other than the destruction of some those very missiles. That’s like saying that the penalty for murder is that the judge will confiscate your gun: it effectively communicates the message, “you have nothing to lose, so you might as well try again.”
Indeed, this is exactly what Iran has done: having attacked Israel with a massive barrage in April followed by another in October, an attempt on the life of the Israeli Prime Minister just last week, as well as over a year of attacks by its proxy forces, including the October 7 massacre itself.
While America is understandably obsessed with “stability,” its policy makers seem confused on how one achieves it. A case in point: Israeli forces killed Hamas leader and the mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza on October 16. Since that time, the number of rockets Hamas has successfully fired at Israel has come to a grand total of zero (down from approximately 6,000 per month at its peak last year).
This is not because Hamas does not wish to avenge its leader, but because it is no longer capable of doing so. This is what “regional stability” looks like, and it is the kind of stability we could achieve throughout the Middle East, if major Western powers did not invest quite so much energy into protecting their own enemies. For now, Western appeasement gives Iran a significant advantage and saddles Israel with a terrifying weakness: no matter what capabilities Israel may have, it is not able to actually use them.
Nonetheless, Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza demonstrate another truth: not only does Israel sometimes ignore American pressure, but when Israel is successful, America will sometimes (retroactively) support, and even try to share credit, for Israeli operations. A case in point: in the past month, Israel has killed more terrorists on America’s “Most Wanted” lists than America has in the last 20 years, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who helped to kill 220 US Marines in their Barracks in 1983. Indeed, when Israel successfully took out Nasrallah, despite strong US pressure for an immediate ceasefire, the White House responded that “justice” had been done; after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar in Rafah, Vice President Kamala Harris, who had fiercely advocated against Israeli operations in Rafah, bizarrely stated “we” will always bring terrorists to justice.
Iranian leaders have communicated through various sources conflicting messages: that they will, and also that they will not, mount a “response” to Israel’s strike this week.
Israel has demonstrated that it has the military capacity to wreak significant destruction on the Iranian military machine, its leadership, and the oil infrastructure that funds both. As we wait to see how events unfold, one thing seems clear: the future direction of the Middle East lies, to a great extent, in Israel’s hands.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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