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How Can Israel Complete Its Victory in the Swords of Iron War?
Israeli soldiers fire mortar shells, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, near Israel’s border with Gaza in southern Israel, Jan. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura
The security-military failure of October 7, 2023, revealed fundamental flaws in Israel’s national security doctrine. Those flaws led to the collapse of defense lines and the subsequent terrible outcome of a massacre and mass abduction of civilians. On October 7, Hamas succeeded and Israel failed.
October 7 also saw the expression of the Israeli spirit of audacity, resilience, and closeness, with remarkable acts of heroism that saved many lives on that day. However, it is regrettable that as a nation, Israel had to resort to them out of necessity.
From the deep abyss into which Israel was plunged, the IDF, security apparatus, and other critical systems — particularly healthcare — managed to lead Israel to a clear victory. That victory is not yet complete, but what has been achieved so far is significant in every respect.
First and foremost, Hamas has ceased to function wherever the IDF has engaged it in combat. The integrated warfare of the IDF undermines Hamas’ military and authoritative capabilities even beyond the areas where the IDF has physically reached. There are numerous indicators confirming this: a decrease in Hamas resistance to the IDF beyond mere survival or retreat, Gazan civilians’ attitudes toward Hamas, and the severe impact the war has had on the Hamas leadership’s military and civilian control capabilities.
So far, the ratio of casualties between the IDF and Hamas and other Palestinian factions is over 1:40. This is an extremely high ratio by any standard, one of the highest in history. It is based on the almost absolute operational efficiency and superiority of the IDF, stemming from the synergy between ground forces and effective close air support, the integration of precise intelligence with operational implementation on the ground, and the IDF’s proactive learning and knowledge dissemination processes, which exceed those of the enemy.
Another significant achievement is the notably low ratio between enemy combatants killed and civilian casualties. Even if, for example, all 24,000 reported Palestinian casualties (as of the time of writing) were civilians, the killing of around 9,000 militants, as reported by the IDF, represents a ratio of less than 1:3. Given some flexibility in casualty counting, it even approaches 1:2. This is an exceptional and highly unusual ratio. The IDF is eradicating the enemy while inflicting a very low proportional toll on civilians, making this one of the “cleanest” wars in history.
The combination of these two ratios — combatants affected on both sides and combatants relative to civilians on the enemy side — indicates the IDF’s highly effective operational capabilities, despite challenges like crossfire incidents and the population’s displacement efficiency. The strength and success of the Israeli military operation is also helping to contain potential terrorism in the region, at least for the time being.
The hostage exchange deal at the end of November was a significant achievement for the military operation. Israel did not succumb to an “all for all” deal, which was not only practically impossible but would also have posed a tangible threat to the security of Israeli citizens both domestically and abroad and would thus have constituted a strategic defeat. Instead, through military pressure, Israel succeeded in reaching an arrangement that released numerous captives in exchange for a limited and conditional release of Palestinian prisoners.
In the north, Hezbollah is being deterred from opening a comprehensive war, and based on the combination of temporary population displacement (the “security belt in our territory”) and precise strikes against Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon’s south, the IDF is successfully shifting the balance of power between the sides. The casualty ratio between the IDF and Hezbollah stands at 1:20. A clear indication of the positive trend was Hezbollah’s relative restraint in response to the strike against senior Hamas figure Saleh al-Arouri in his Beirut residence and the liquidation of the commander of the Redwan force, both attributed to Israel.
The issue of the violent disruptions by the Houthis in Yemen to maritime traffic in the Red Sea is being addressed as a global problem by a coalition led by the United States. The Houthis are paying a price for their disruptive behavior. China has indicated, through its foreign minister, a desire to remove the Houthi threat to freedom of navigation on a crucial trade route.
Iran is keeping its actions confined and is avoiding direct confrontation with the United States and Israel. The Iranian regime has refrained from conducting wide-ranging attacks on Israel, even when a senior official in the Quds Force was eliminated, relying on proxies in other areas (Syria, Iraq) to target the forces of the United States and Israel. Its success in this regard has been severely limited, partly due to the operational response by the United States and Israel’s advanced active defense measures.
Another achievement of Israel’s military victory is the change in Russia’s approach towards Israel, which was initially very negative. Russia, sensing Israeli weakness and seeing an opportunity to challenge the United States and divert attention from the war in Ukraine, showed support for Hamas at the beginning of the war. The Israeli military success led the Russians, operating from a cool and realistically grounded perspective based on strategic interests, to readjust their policy and realign with their previous stance towards Israel of recent years. This stance, while still negative in the public domain, is now much more balanced behind the scenes.
The crimes committed on October 7 and the understanding of governments and experts worldwide that they cannot be attributed to the Israeli military operation are influencing a change in public sentiment towards Israel. Setting aside the vocal minority of extreme progressives and the surge in antisemitic sentiments being expressed around the world, public opinion towards Israel is as balanced as one could expect. A clear expression of this is the struggle over the soul of universities in the United States, where the progressive response to October 7—effectively supporting the massacre of Jews that occurred on that day—has fueled a backlash against “woke” ideology and its incessant negative discourse on Israel.
Another significant achievement of the campaign is the strengthening of the alliance between Israel and its rising partners worldwide. The clear pro-Israel positions of Germany, India, Japan, to some extent South Korea, and Argentina with the ascent of its new president (compensating to some extent for the temporary distancing from Brazil) reflect a new international coalition of friends of Israel. At least with regard to India and Japan, it can be said that the security-political coalition built by the United States alongside Israeli military achievements constitutes a significant reinforcement of Israel’s security.
All this being the case, at the conclusion of the first hundred days of the war we can begin to discuss a clear Israeli military victory and its profound implications for Israel’s strategic position.
The greatest challenge will be to maintain and increase the positive momentum. Israel must not reach a point of strategic exhaustion, so it needs to push ongoing efforts to secure a clear strategic advantage with full force.
The main way to do this is to keep fighting. The difference — which will become clear to the leadership of Hamas in Gaza — is that this time, there will not be a complete ceasefire (allowing for possible temporary pauses) during which Yahya Sinwar can relax. The continuation of the campaign against Hamas infrastructure and the non-stop search for Hamas leadership both above and below ground will eventually bear fruit. As long as those leaders are in Gaza – and we must strive to ensure that that does not change – they are effectively neutralized and will pay with their lives for every small mistake they make, something that is increasingly likely as the days pass with them hiding underground. The IDF must continue to pursue and eliminate the military capabilities of Hamas and dismantle the organization (what is known in the US military as “degrade and destroy”) in order to return peace to the civilian home front and create a situation in which Hamas no longer has any substantial influence on the future of Gaza.
As part of its military operations, Israel needs to seize control of Rafah and the border area with Egypt. Israel must choke off the capabilities of terrorist entities, which include not only Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad but also global jihadist elements and al-Qaeda. The main way to achieve this is by blocking the escape route along the border with Egypt. As for any future local governance in Gaza, Israel must insist on controlling movement between the Strip and Egypt.
Taking control of Rafah requires dealing with the civilian component. There are currently hundreds of thousands of refugees in the Rafah area, and measures need to be taken to ensure their relocation to facilitate the takeover of the region. The relocation of civilians from the Rafah area is an excellent opportunity to return the population to northern Gaza and begin civilian reconstruction.
Part of Israel’s victory scenario is a situation in which Gaza residents rebuild infrastructure and damaged buildings in an organized manner, managed by a local civilian-government nucleus with the support of a limited external envelope composed of international and regional entities. Israel needs to ensure that Hamas cannot be the leading civilian force in the Gaza Strip, and this can only happen if a local force develops with sufficient capabilities and powers to address the population’s needs. A civilian reconstruction plan for Gaza operated by locals and guided and funded by external entities would constitute a clear Israeli victory.
Regarding the painful issue of the captives, the goal should be to rescue as many of them as possible through three avenues: military operations, negotiations, and deals (exchanges) with local entities that are holding them. One incentive could be the offer of a high monetary reward for anyone who delivers captives alive to the IDF. There is no reason to continue promoting a comprehensive deal with Hamas.
On the northern front, it is advisable to seek international agreements based on an international monitoring mechanism to ensure that Hezbollah forces stay away from the border. Such arrangements could hold for an extended period if the IDF’s strikes on Hezbollah continue until an agreement is reached and compliance is achieved, minimizing casualties on our side. After securing such agreements, the IDF should stand strong in defending the border and respond forcefully to any provocations by Hezbollah. However, it is clear that a much broader approach will be required (as was the case in Gaza with Hamas) to comprehensively address the Hezbollah challenge.
Increasing Israel’s strategic advantage also requires the exploitation of political opportunities. The most important is capitalizing on the decrease in the visibility of the conflict to broaden the Abraham Accords through an agreement with Saudi Arabia and the renewed promotion of relations with the UAE and other countries. A clear military victory and the advancement of the reconstruction process with the assistance of a regional coalition will facilitate this progress.
As for the United States, the upcoming presidential election represents a fundamental challenge to Israel. Israel must navigate between maintaining a close relationship with the American administration, currently led by President Joe Biden, which is taking significant — in some cases unprecedented – steps in support of Israel during wartime, and the fact that each of the Republican candidates is a clear supporter of Israel. Israel will need to handle political matters with extreme caution, but there is a major opportunity to harness the mechanisms and processes successfully executed during the war — with an emphasis on building the international coalition and convincing the Americans to deter Iran — to advance the discussion on long-term confrontation with Iran and its proxies. This should include a return to a joint discussion on the nuclear issue, which has been pushed aside due to the war.
The final effort to highlight the military victory involves deepening the discourse with international actors. It is crucial to solidify the support and partnerships that have been established with Germany, India, Japan, and other countries to accelerate diplomatic and military cooperation. There should also be an aspiration to restore positive dialogue with Russia, which has been strained since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s growing need for an Iranian foothold in the Middle East. Israel’s demonstrated strength in Gaza and the northern front allows a return to an open and critical dialogue with Moscow, which previously led to meaningful understandings on Syrian and Iranian issues.
Perhaps most importantly, the victory should be exploited to effect a change in the Israeli domestic discourse. The current generation of Israeli leadership on both sides of the political spectrum failed on October 7, in terms of the unnecessary and extreme polarization around the judiciary issue, management of the internal crisis in the years that led up to the massacre, and the formulation of policy towards Gaza over the years. It is likely that, as happened after the Yom Kippur War, the current leadership will make way for a younger generation.
Alongside the political-military issue, the biggest challenge will be to leverage the expected recovery of Israel, which tends to be rapid after a crisis or war, to accelerate the Israeli economy while creating new balances. For example, in the hi-tech sector and other industries, a balance will need to be achieved between growth and self-production and imports that ensure, among other things, food security in times of crisis. Similarly, there will need to be a balance between traditional and renewable energy to diversify risk.
Israel is a country of many narratives and not one of extremes. This stems from the history of the Jewish people but is reinforced by the political discourse, characteristics of Israeli media coverage, and the dynamics of open studios in which excess opinions, arrogance, and criticism are expressed. A significant gain from the ordeal of October 7 will be a process of correction in all these aspects.
Lt. Col. (Res.) Shai Shabtai is a senior researcher at the BESA Center and an expert in national security, strategic planning, and strategic communication. He is a strategist in the field of cyber defense and a consultant to leading companies in Israel. He is about to complete his doctorate at Bar-Ilan University. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Occidental College Settles Antisemitism Complaint
A general view of the US Department of Education in Washington, DC, on Dec. 1, 2020. Photo: Graeme Sloan via Reuters Connect
Occidental College in Los Angeles has agreed to “sweeping reforms” of its handling of antisemitism to settle a civil rights complaint brought by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and the Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law.
According to the ADL, which issued an announcement of the agreement on Tuesday, the college will refer to the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism during its investigations of antisemitic conduct and add a section on antisemitism to its educational programming on Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prevents education institutions receiving federal funds from practicing or allowing the practice of discrimination based on race, religion, and ethnic origin.
The ADL and the Brandeis Center jointly filed their complaint against Occidental College, a measure which allows for negotiating a resolution to the matter before the US Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) renders a ruling. The civil rights organizations charged in their claim that the college failed to correct a “pervasive and hostile environment” in which Jewish students were subject to “severe antisemitic bullying, intimidation, and physical threats” amid an explosion of anti-Jewish hatred precipitated by Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
“This agreement demonstrates Occidental College’s commitment to counter all forms of contemporary antisemitism and underscores their recognition that effectively combating antisemitism requires understanding the relationship between Jewish identity, Israel, and Zionism,” Brandeis Center president Alyza Lewin said in a statement. “We are gratified by the school’s engagement in meaningful discussions at the highest levels of the administration, and we are heartened that Occidental has committed to creating a safer environment for Jewish students. When implemented, this agreement will help ensure that Jewish students are able to learn and thrive in an environment free from antisemitic hate, discrimination, and harassment.”
ADL chief executive officer Jonathan Greenblatt added, “This outcome demonstrates how the Title VI OCR process can work to effectively protect Jewish students. We are deeply grateful for the US Department of Education’s dedication and assistance in resolving this case. It is our hope that this resolution will lead to other college administrators implementing these or similar measures proactively to address antisemitism on campus.”
Occidental College’s settlement treads a path taken by other institutions of higher education against which legal action was taken to address a surge of campus antisemitism over the past year, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
In June, Columbia University settled a civil lawsuit in which it was accused by a student of neglecting its obligation to foster a safe learning environment amid riotous pro-Hamas protests that were held at the school throughout the final weeks of the academic year.
The resolution of the case, first reported by Reuters, called for Columbia to hire a “Safe Passage Liaison” who will monitor protests and “walking escorts” who will accompany students whose safety is threatened around the campus. Other details of the settlement included “accommodations” for students whose academic lives are disrupted by protests and new security policies for controlling access to school property.
In July, New York University agreed to pay an undisclosed sum of money to settle a lawsuit brought by three students who sued the school for responding, allegedly, to antisemitic discrimination “with deliberate indifference.”
By resolving the case, NYU avoided a lengthy trial which would have revealed precisely who and which office received but failed to address numerous reports that — according to the court documents filed in November — NYU students and faculty “repeatedly abuse, malign, vilify, and threaten Jewish students with impunity” and that “death to k—es” and “gas the Jews” were chanted by pro-Hamas supporters at the school.
NYU did not merely pay money to quell the complaints of its accusers, however. Over a month after the settlement was reached it updated its Non-Discrimination and Harassment Policy (NDAH), including in it language which identified “Zionist” as a racial dog whistle that sometimes conceals the antisemitic intent of speech and other conduct that denigrates and excludes Jews. As previously reported by The Algemeiner, the policy acknowledges the “coded” subtleties of antisemitic speech and its use in discriminatory conduct that targets Jewish students and faculty.
NYU went further, recognizing that Zionism is central to the identities of the world’s 15.7 million Jews, an overwhelming majority of whom believe the Jewish people were destined to return to their ancient homeland in the land of Israel after centuries of exile. “For many Jewish people, Zionism is a part of their Jewish identity. Speech and conduct that would violate the NDAH if targeting Jewish or Israeli people can also violate the NDAH if directed toward Zionists,” the university said.
Anti-Israel activity on college campuses has reached crisis levels in the year that followed Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel, according to a report published by the ADL in September which revealed a “staggering” 477 percent increase in anti-Zionist activity involving assault, vandalism, and other phenomena. Titled “Anti-Israel Activism on US Campuses, 2023-2024,” the document painted a bleak picture of an American higher education system poisoned by political extremism and hate.
“The antisemitic, anti-Zionist vitriol we’ve witnessed on campus is unlike anything we’ve seen in the past,” Greenblatt said in a statement accompanying the unveiling of the organization’s research. “Since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the anti-Israel movement’s relentless harassment, vandalism, intimidation, and violent physical assaults go way beyond the peaceful voicing of a political opinion. Administrators and faculty need to do much better this year to ensure a safe and truly inclusive environment for all students, regardless of religion, nationality, or political views, and they need to start now.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Rashida Tlaib Uses Thanksgiving Message to Express Solidarity With ‘Palestine,’ Other ‘Indigenous People’
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) addresses attendees as she takes part in a protest calling for a ceasefire in Gaza outside the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, US, Oct. 18, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Leah Millis
US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) used the holiday of Thanksgiving to “mourn” the “indigenous people” of “Palestine” and elsewhere “fighting for freedom on their own land,” portraying one of America’s most storied celebrations in a negative light.
“This Thanksgiving we mourn the Indigenous people killed by European settlers and the United States in order to steal their land,” Tlaib reposted on Instagram. “From here to Palestine, we stand in solidarity with all Indigenous people as they fight for freedom on their own land.”
Tlaib, the first Palestinian American woman elected to the US Congress, has long been an outspoken critic of Israel. The congresswoman was slow to issue a public statement acknowledging the Palestinian terror group Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, and since the onslaught, she has repeatedly accused Israel of committing “genocide,” “ethnic cleansing,” and “apartheid.” She has also alleged that American support for Israel stems from “anti-Palestinian racism.”
US Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA), another staunch critic of Israel and progressive lawmaker, also used Thanksgiving as an opportunity to take shots at America, arguing that the beloved holiday represents “stolen land and broken treaties” for Native Americans.
Lee has been on the receiving end of immense criticism over her anti-Israel rhetoric in the year following the Oct. 7 atrocities. In the weeks following the slaughter, Lee co-sponsored a resolution calling for a “ceasefire” between Israel and Hamas. She has similarly accused the Jewish state of committing “genocide” against Palestinians in Gaza. In a statement commemorating the anniversary of Oct. 7, Lee only wrote that she mourned “those killed one year ago and those massacred in the year since,” seemingly drawing an equivalence between Hamas’s terrorism and Israel’s defensive military operations.
“Thanksgiving is a time of gratitude and togetherness for many, but it’s also a reminder of stolen land and broken treaties for others. Today, let’s honor Native communities by committing to the fight for sovereignty, justice, and the promises this country has failed to keep,” Lee wrote.
In contrast, some other members of Congress called attention to the American hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza in their Thanksgiving statements.
“As we gather with family today, we must not forget the families who are missing their loved ones who were taken hostage by Hamas 418 days ago — including New York’s own Omer Neutra,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said. “Let us pray that by this time next year, they will be reunited safely with their families.”
“As you spend Thanksgiving with your family and friends, don’t forget the 100+ families whose loved ones are being held hostage by Iran-backed Hamas for the second holiday season in a row. It’’ been 419 days. Enough! Bring them home NOW!” US Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said in a statement, referring to the 101 hostages still in captivity in Gaza.
Of the remaining hostages, seven are Americans.
The post Rashida Tlaib Uses Thanksgiving Message to Express Solidarity With ‘Palestine,’ Other ‘Indigenous People’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Antisemitism in Berlin Surges to Record Levels This Year, New Data Show
Pro-Hamas demonstrators marching in Munich, Germany. Photo: Reuters/Alexander Pohl
The number of antisemitic incidents in Berlin in just the first six months of this year surpassed the total for all of 2023 and reached the highest annual count on record, according to a new German report.
Germany’s Federal Association of Departments for Research and Information on Antisemitism (RIAS) on Thursday released data documenting 1,383 incidents of antisemitism in the German capital from January to June, averaging nearly eight a day.
The figure compiled by RIAS, a federally-funded body, was a significant increase from the 1,270 antisemitic outrages tallied in 2023 and the highest count for a single year since RIAS began monitoring antisemitic incidents in 2015.
Of the 1,383 incidents documented in the first half of this year in Berlin, two were cases of “extreme violence,” another 23 were attacks (six of which were against children), and 37 were targeted acts of property damage, including 21 acts involving memorials.
In the first extremely violent incident, a Jewish student in Mitte was punched several times in the face on the street and then kicked in the face after he fell to the ground in February 2024. The victim, a member of student groups working to combat antisemitism, had been doxed online as a “right-wing Zionist,” according to The Jerusalem Post.
The second incident also occurred in Mitte, this time in May, when a visibly Jewish Ukrainian was physically attacked by an unknown assailant while on the way to synagogue. The attacker yelled “Free Palestine” while assaulting the victim, and no one reportedly intervened.
RIAS also documented 28 threats, such as direct messages on social media, and 1,240 cases of abusive behavior.
“The content of antisemitism also continued to be more violent and uninhibited. Seventy-one incidents contained threats of annihilation, including graffiti that openly called for the killing of Jews,” the report noted.
In the first half of 2024, 74 antisemitic incidents were documented in educational institutions in Berlin, including 27 incidents in schools. “The nature of the incidents is alarming: Jewish or Israeli children were beaten, spat on, threatened, and treated with hostility by their classmates,” according to RIAS. “Antisemitic incidents occurred in schools in 9 of 12 Berlin districts.”
A striking 71.6 percent of all antisemitic incidents during the first half of 2024 in the German capital were related to Israel.
RIAS previously reported a major spike in antisemitic incidents across Germany since the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7, amid the ensuing war in Gaza.
There have been 230 antisemitic outrages per month since Oct. 7, 2023, compared to around 50 such incidents per month before the onslaught.
“These data indicate a lasting change in the dynamics of incidents: the number of antisemitic incidents in Berlin remained at a significantly higher level in the first half of the year than in the months and years before, starting with the sharp increase following Oct. 7,” RIAS summarized.
However, many antisemitic incidents had nothing to do with Israel or its ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza.
“It can be observed that in this context the boundaries of what can be said have shifted overall and some antisemitic statements seem to be acceptable even to [normative] society,” RIAS wrote. “They range from the demonization and delegitimization of Israel, to antisemitic conspiracy myths, trivialization of the Holocaust and reversals of perpetrator and victim, to open antisemitic insults.”
The antisemitism monitoring group concluded that rates of antisemitism show no sign of letting up in Berlin: “A downward trend is not foreseeable at the time of publication of the report.”
Europe has experienced an explosion of antisemitic incidents in the wake of the Hamas atrocities of last Oct. 7. In many countries, anti-Jewish hate crimes have spiked to record levels.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), police registered 5,154 antisemitic incidents in Germany last year, a 95 percent increase compared to the previous year.
However, experts believe that the true number of incidents is much higher but not recorded because of reluctance on the part of the victims.
“Only 20 percent of the antisemitic crimes are reported, so the real number should be five times what we have,” Felix Klein, the German federal government’s chief official dealing with antisemitism, told The Algemeiner in an interview last year.
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