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How October 7 Should Change Israel’s National Security Calculus

An aerial view shows the bodies of victims of an attack following a mass infiltration by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip lying on the ground in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in southern Israel, Oct. 10, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg

The events of October 7 marked a total collapse of the basic principles of Israel’s national security doctrine. Three of the four basic components — deterrence, early warning, and defense — failed completely.

In view of this collapse, the State of Israel obviously cannot continue to base its security planning on the existing doctrine. So what is to be done with it? This will be a long conversation that will be held in depth after the war ends. This article presents several initial lines of thought on both the content of Israel’s security doctrine and the process of updating it.

Above all, the time has come to distinguish national security strategy from national security doctrine, and to stop once and for all the problematic preoccupation with the “security concept.

A national security strategy is the worldview of an administration that defines its basic assumptions underpinning national security. It connects the permanent, emerging, and changing elements of national existence. A national security doctrine is a document containing the fundamental principles and concepts that are to be applied to address military and security threats and challenges.

The foundations of Israel’s national security strategy were defined by David Ben-Gurion. There are five components: conventional qualitative advantage; perception of nuclear deterrence; special relationship with a superpower; technological and economic superiority; and national focus (statehood, majority democracy, the spirit of the Jewish people, and the connection between Israel and the Diaspora).

However, discussions about the ways national security strategy can and should change do not take place in Israel in an orderly manner, and new governments do not clearly define their strategies. The events of October 7 show that the absence of such discussions can lead to a period as long as 18 years (the time since the disengagement from Gaza in 2005) in which no profound changes occurred in the Israeli approach to national security, even though four prime ministers served during that time.

The fundamental questions regarding Israel’s national security strategy are:

The Iranian threat: Is Israel giving it too much weight?

There is no doubt that a scenario in which the Islamic regime in Iran is equipped with nuclear weapons would constitute an existential threat to Israel, and this must be prevented. But the path from this statement to a clear national strategy on the Iranian issue remains unclear.

Iran is advancing towards the nuclear threshold mainly through the accumulation of materièl, but there is still some distance between Iran and a bomb, and there are no signs that it has decided to produce one. What does this mean for Israeli strategy?

Also, Israel has not done everything in its power to prevent an Iranian bomb. It has not militarily attacked the Islamic Republic’s nuclear project. What does this say about its considerations in handling the Iranian nuclear issue?

In the Swords of Iron War, the “Iranian axis,” with the possible exception of Hezbollah, has proven to be a paper tiger with regard to its ability to conduct operations that will seriously harm Israel. What does this say about Israel’s attitude towards Iran regarding issues other than nuclear weapons?

And how should Israel weigh the Iranian regime’s perception of its own domestic threat or its reluctance to engage in an all-out conflict with Israel for its own strategic reasons?

The Palestinians

The Swords of Iron War opens the door for change on the Palestinian issue, if only because a new civil order will take shape in Gaza whose connection to the Palestinian Authority will be loose (at least in the early stages). Along with the reshaping of the Palestinian Authority after the eventual death of Mahmoud Abbas, the conclusion of the war will mark a great opportunity to restart and clarify Israeli strategy towards the Palestinians.

After two decades of postponing a conclusion and instead “managing” the conflict, the time has come for Israel to decide its vision for the Territories. Does it want to hold and annex part of them (the settlement blocs? Area C?) in order to realize the vision of the connection between the people of Israel and the Land of Israel? Does it want to control the territories with a Palestinian population (in Gaza? in the major cities and towns of Judea and Samaria?) or create the reality of another political entity while maintaining freedom of security action?

Independence from, versus dependence on, the United States

The Swords of Iron War has demonstrated Israel’s political and military dependence on the United States. Israel was revealed to be too dependent on Washington, which points to a series of planning and execution failures regarding decisions about the desirable extent of Israel’s independence. Economic and resource decisions led to the emergence of a strategic gap. Israel’s dependence is particularly problematic at a time when trends in the United States on matters concerning Israel are not necessarily in its favor.

To what extent is Israel willing to invest in security and economic independence? What is the depth of her basic commitment to the American axis in the world, and what price is she willing to pay for it? To what extent would it be wise for Israel to spread the risk and establish economic and perhaps also security relationships with other key powers? To what extent should Israel preserve the direct relationship with Russia in an effort to moderate its attitude (as is now occurring after a “bad start” by Moscow towards the Swords of Iron War)?

The changing attitude towards regional alliances

A follow-up to the issue of Israel’s dependence on the United States is the extent to which Israel is willing to risk being tied, economically and to a certain degree in terms of security, to a regional coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Is Israel ready to integrate into the region in a way that will create a dependency on it among its neighbors, for example in energy or investment in hi-tech and critical infrastructure?

Risk management or active design

Until October 7, Israel’s approach was based primarily on risk management and the maintenance of stability. It chose to preserve the rule of Hamas in Gaza, not to advance the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, and not to defeat the Hezbollah organization and fundamentally change the order in Lebanon. The Swords of Iron War represents a change in Israel’s approach in one of those arenas: It is now actively working to change the governing order in the Gaza Strip.

Does the move in the Gaza Strip signify a shift in overall Israeli strategy away from risk management and towards an initiative or design approach?

The use of force

After years of avoiding full activation of its most significant military tool, its maneuvering and offensive ground army, Israel is now using that tool to great effect in Gaza. This proves that offensive military power remains an essential component of Israel’s strategic toolbox. In light of the scale of the events of October 7, considerations of human life — the fate of the kidnapped civilians and risking of its soldiers — was given a lower precedence on the understanding that national strategic needs had to prevail over individual lives (though not always, and not in every way).

Will Israel’s national security strategy now be more flexible with regard to the use of military force, especially ground maneuvers?

These are only some of questions that should be asked at the level of the National Security Strategy. The answers to these questions will require deep thought, and the conclusion of the Swords of Iron War will represent an unrepeatable opportunity to consider them at the highest levels.

Israel’s National Security Doctrine needs an even more urgent rethink in light of the blows it received on October 7. The National Security Doctrine is the basic document of the security echelon, and in principle it should not be immediately affected by the worldview of an elected political echelon. It defines the basic conventions — i.e., the principles and concepts — involved with security and military challenges. The discussion that needs to take place after the war holds the potential for a profound change in the existing doctrine or perhaps a return to the basics after decades of de facto change.

The issues that need to be addressed as part of the discussion of these principles are:

The transfer of war to the opponent’s territory, which stems from the basic principle of a defensive strategy and an offensive approach. In the reality created by the Swords of Iron War, and in light of the strategic decisions that need to be made about Israel’s willingness to use force to shape the regional environment according to its needs, should Israel reinstate the concepts of preemptive war and the preemptive strike that were once at the heart of its security doctrine?
The principle of the “People’s Army.” Considering the extent of the military commitment manifested in the Swords of Iron War, the vast use of reserve units, and the (likely) need to increase the size of the regular army, might it be wise to reverse the decisions that led to the erosion of the components of the “People’s Army”? Don’t Israel’s updated security needs necessitate a renewed discussion of which populations serve and which do not? To what extent can that discussion be disconnected from its divisive political context and be held in the context of Israel’s security needs?

Another serious discussion will have to be about the basic elements of security doctrine: deterrence, early warning, defense, and decision. The events of October 7 and the ensuing war brought decisive decision back as the core achievement required by the security doctrine. Decades of shifts away from it, and the creation of alternatives like “deterrence campaigns” and defensive countermeasures, turned out to be less relevant to or effective against the types of enemies Israel faces.

The discussion of the basic elements of the security doctrine can go in several directions:

Reducing the basic elements to deterrence and decision only. In practice, these are the two components Israel must be able to bring to bear against its enemies.
Creating a ranking among the components: deterrence and decision as the core components, with the other components — early warning, defense, and possibly thwarting or prevention and participation in coalitions — serving as enablers of the core components.
Flexibility in the application of the components: that is, determining that while all the components are valid, they will vary according to enemy and context. Unlike the doctrine of recent decades, which showed a drift away from decision and towards other components, all the components would be applied according to need. In other words, against certain opponents, decision and deterrence would be at the core and the other components would enable them, while against other adversaries, the response would be based on prevention or thwarting and coalitions, with the others less relevant.

The national security policy document contains the principles of operation of the political-security echelons and expresses their assessment of the current national situation and required political directives. Updates should be derived from the revised National Security Strategy and the updated National Security Doctrine.

One way to promote an orderly process at the national security level is through binding legislation. This would entail legal definitions of structured processes for the development of national security documents, approval by the cabinet/ government, and their presentation and approval in the Knesset. These processes would give form to a substantial, structured, and continuous engagement in national security. Within this framework:

The National Security Strategy would be the basic document of the elected political echelon. On the establishment of a new government, the NSC would lead a process to structure a new strategy document. The cabinet would approve both the classified and public versions of the National Security Strategy document. The prime minister would bring the public document to the Knesset for approval as part of a political announcement up to six months from the date of the government’s establishment. The Knesset’s approval of the document would constitute a vote of confidence in the government.
The National Security Doctrine would be the basic document of the national security echelon. Once every five to seven years, the defense minister would guide the security apparatuses to update the document. At the end of the process, it would be confirmed by the cabinet and both the classified and public versions would be published.
The National Security Policy would be the document containing the operating principles of the political-security echelons for the upcoming year. It would be updated once a year in a process led by the NSC and would be approved by the government and the Knesset as a condition for approving the state budget.

As seen in the United States and other countries, the systematic and mandatory review of national security documents requires a public reexamination of the principles of national security. Even if it is carried out solely to fulfill a formal obligation and there is a gap between it and its implementation, it would be difficult for Israel’s decision-makers and security establishment to avoid addressing the key issues and still remain trapped in outdated concepts that can end up in a grave crisis, as occurred on October 7.

Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai is Deputy Director of the BESA Center and an expert in national security, strategic planning and strategic communication. He is a cyber security strategist and a consultant at leading companies in Israel. Col. Shabtai is about to finish his doctorate at Bar-Ilan University. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post How October 7 Should Change Israel’s National Security Calculus first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Belgian Prime Minister Shows Solidarity With Jewish Community, Calls for Caution on Palestinian State Recognition

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever attends a press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (not pictured), at the Chancellery, in Berlin, Germany, Aug. 26, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Annegret Hilse

Amid rising antisemitism across Europe and increasing hostility toward Israel from several European governments, Prime Minister Bart De Wever expressed Belgium’s sympathy and respect for the Jewish community this week, honoring the millions of victims of the Holocaust.

During his trip to Berlin on Tuesday, De Wever visited the Holocaust Memorial and left a moving message in its guestbook.

“On behalf of the Belgian government and all people and communities living together in peace in Belgium, I express my deepest sympathy and my respect,” the Belgian leader wrote in a note in German.

“We will remember all the victims. I stand here humbly at this place of remembrance. The Jewish community will always have a home in Europe,” he continued.

Rabbi Menachem Margolin, chairman of the European Jewish Association (EJA), commended De Wever’s remarks and his support for the Jewish community, highlighting his leadership as a model.

“We sincerely thank Prime Minister De Wever for his moving message in Berlin. At a time when antisemitism is once again spreading across Europe, his clear and unwavering statement that the Jewish community will always have a home here is deeply important,” Margolin said in a statement.

“Such leadership not only honors the memory of the six million victims of the Holocaust but also strengthens the sense of security and belonging for Jews in Belgium and across the continent,” he continued.

“We also commend the Prime Minister’s principled leadership on Israel, where he consistently calls for security guarantees and a realistic path to peace. His voice carries moral weight in Europe, and we deeply appreciate it.”

During his visit to Berlin, De Wever met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to discuss the recent push by several European countries to recognize a Palestinian state at next month’s UN General Assembly.

At a joint press conference, De Wever stressed that recognizing a Palestine state is only meaningful under strict conditions, warning that doing so without such guarantees would be “pointless and even counterproductive.”

“Hamas must disappear completely, there must be a credible Palestinian Authority, an agreement must be reached on borders, and Israel must receive security guarantees. Without that, recognition makes no sense,” De Wever said.

In Belgium, De Wever’s more cautious approach to Palestinian statehood and support for Israel have fueled clashes within the government, with Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot threatening to block government initiatives if the coalition continues to hinder a firmer stance on Israel and the recognition of a Palestinian state.

“If there is no stronger tone within the government regarding the human rights violations committed by the Israeli government, or if no measures are taken in favor of recognizing Palestine, a major crisis is looming,” Prévot said during an interview with De Standaard.

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Amid War, Olim-Owned Businesses in Jerusalem Thrive, Showcasing Resilience, Community Spirit

Olim gather at JFK Airport, ready to board a charter flight to Israel and begin their new lives in the Jewish state. Photo: The Algemeiner

JERUSALEM — Despite the strains of war and the obstacles of starting over in a new country, businesses in Jerusalem owned by Jewish immigrants are thriving — a testament to resilience, Zionist commitment, and the power of community.

New immigrants, or olim, who make aliyah to Israel face steep challenges even in times of peace, navigating strict regulations, endless permits, and financial hurdles, though the Israeli government offers some support and incentives to promote new businesses.

Aliyah refers to the process of Jews immigrating to Israel, and olim refers to those who make this journey.

In recent years, the road has become even more difficult for entrepreneurs, first with the economic disruption of COVID-19 and now amid the uncertainty of the war in Gaza.

For many olim, launching a business in Israel is about more than entrepreneurship — it’s a way to start a new life, serve their country, build a community, and make a meaningful impact.

Last week, 225 new olim arrived in Tel Aviv on the first charter aliyah flight since the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

Nefesh B’Nefesh (NBN) — a nonprofit that promotes and facilitates aliyah from the US and Canada — brought its 65th charter flight from New York, which The Algemeiner joined.

Founded in 2002, NBN helps olim become fully integrated members of Israeli society, simplifying the immigration process and providing essential resources and guidance.

In partnership with Israel’s Ministry of Aliyah and Integration, the Jewish Agency for Israel, Keren Kayemeth, and the Jewish National Fund, NBN has helped nearly 100,000 olim build thriving new lives in Israel.

Eager to start their next chapter in Israel, these immigrants bring fresh ideas, culinary creativity, and cultural richness, strengthening the country’s social fabric every day.

Originally from New Orleans, Louisiana, Diana Shapira brought her passion for baking and warm hospitality to Israel, turning her aliyah dream into a popular destination for both locals and tourists.

She and her husband created Infused JLM, located near Jerusalem’s Mahaneh Yehuda Market, blending American and Israeli culture and creating a space that brings people together.

“We want people to see that an oleh’s dream can happen,” Shapira told The Algemeiner. “Even without family and facing many challenges, starting a business in Israel is possible — especially when you have the support of the community.”

“Before we made aliyah, so many people told us it was a bad financial decision. But you have to push past the doubt and keep striving,” she continued.

Another olim-owned business located in Jerusalem, Power CoffeeWorks, has become a favorite destination for coffee enthusiasts across the city.

Owned by Stephanie and Brandon, who made aliyah from Cape Town, South Africa, in 2016 with their four children at the time (now seven), the couple has turned their venture into a hub for coffee lovers and a gathering place for the community.

“We made aliyah because we believed Israel was the best place to raise our children,” Stephanie told The Algemeiner. “Despite all the challenges along the way, it has been an incredible journey.”

Crave, another oleh-owned restaurant in Mahaneh Yehuda, has gained increasing attention with its strictly kosher gourmet street food, blending American, Mexican, and Asian flavors in a way that hasn’t been seen before.

American-born Yoni Van Leeuwen, who made aliyah more than 20 years ago with his wife and eight children, views food not just as a business, but as a way to bring cultures and communities together.

Following the Oct. 7 atrocities, the war in Gaza dealt a harsh blow to Israeli businesses, forcing many to cut hours, adapt operations, and manage shortages.

Yet these olim-owned establishments have shown resilience, proving that passion, creativity, and commitment to the Zionist dream can overcome even the toughest challenges.

Whether by serving comfort food, offering a safe space for neighbors, or organizing fundraisers for soldiers in Gaza and Lebanon, these business owners described a spirit of perseverance deeply rooted in Jewish history.

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Police in England Investigate Air Rifle Attack Against Jewish Teenager, Swastika Spray Painted at Rabbi’s Home

Friday night saw a string of swastika vandalism resulting in four reports, including from Rabbi Bentzion Alperowitz, a Chabad leader who discovered the Nazi symbol spray painted in black on his home’s white wall as he left for synagogue the next morning with his two young daughters. Photo: Screenshot

Multiple antisemitic incidents reported this past weekend targeted the Jewish community of Bournemouth in the southern region on the coast of the United Kingdom.

On Saturday afternoon, a driver stopped to harass and yell obscenities at two pedestrians before shooting one, a Jewish teenage boy, in the forehead with an air rifle and fleeing. The victim suffered swelling but has otherwise recovered.

“Detectives are leading the investigation to locate the occupants of the vehicle and to establish the full circumstances of the incident,” a spokesman for Dorset Police said. “The incident is being treated as a hate crime. Officers are engaging with the local community and carrying out patrols in the area. We would encourage anyone with information or concerns to please speak with an officer.”

Rabbi Alan Lewis, who leads the Bournemouth Hebrew Congregation, said that “the young man who was shot is a religious Jew who was wearing a skull cap. It was very obvious he was Jewish. Then several people living on Manor Road woke up to find that swastikas had been painted on their homes. The homes had a mezuzah outside, so it was obvious that Jewish people lived there.”

Friday night saw a string of swastika vandalism resulting in four reports, including from Rabbi Bentzion Alperowitz, a Chabad leader who discovered the Nazi symbol spray painted in black on his home’s white wall as he left for synagogue the next morning with his two young daughters.

“We will continue to live as proud Jews here in Bournemouth … I want to encourage everyone to do exactly the same,” Alperowitz said. “This is not the Bournemouth I know. Bournemouth is a kind, beautiful place and I feel this is still the truth for the vast majority of people here.”

Other members of the Jewish community came to assist the rabbi with removing the graffiti.

“[The] good news is that by the time you’re watching this video our wall will have been cleaned, thanks to some amazing people from the community, who came around to help clean it,” Alperowitz said.

Author Dov Forman wrote that “on Saturday morning, my friend Rabbi Benzion Alperowitz of Bournemouth Chabad walked outside to find a swastika on his home. Antisemitism is alive on our streets, yet it is too often excused and ignored. But it will not break us. We will continue to live proudly as Jews.”

Law enforcement has reportedly stepped up patrols in the town’s Jewish neighborhoods which include an estimated 2,000 people.

On Monday, the Community Security Trust (CST), an organization focused on monitoring antisemitic threats in the UK, released a statement saying that it was “appalled by a series of anti-Jewish hate crimes in Bournemouth over the weekend. These are abhorrent acts of racism that are deeply distressing for the Jewish community and should alarm everybody. We are supporting the local Jewish community and working with Dorset Police to assist their investigation. We urge anyone with information about these incidents to contact the police and CST.”

CST released a report of antisemitic incidents in the UK during 2024, finding 3,528 — the second highest ever — showing an 18-percent decrease from the all-time high of 4,296 in 2023.

Earlier this month, CST released a separate report noting the group recorded 1,521 antisemitic incidents in the UK from January to June of this year. It marks the second-highest total of incidents ever recorded by CST in the first six months of any year, following the first half of 2024 in which 2,019 antisemitic incidents were recorded in the aftermath of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, terror attack on Israel.

“These hateful attacks on people and property in Bournemouth are extremely concerning. We have been informed that the police are investigating and hope that the perpetrators will be arrested and face the full force of the law,” Andrew Gilbert, vice president of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, said in a statement.

Maurice Michaels, who served as rabbi at Bournemouth Reform Synagogue, said that the community felt “very pressurized and anxious.” He added, “We’re getting terrified calls from people across the UK asking, ‘Is this really happening in Bournemouth?’ I’d never go out wearing my usual skull cap, I don’t show outward signs of being Jewish. I know community members who have even removed their mezuzah from their front door.”

Michaels described the antisemitic crimes as “a measure of what’s going on across the country, demonstrations where people cover their faces. They don’t want to be recognized because they know what they’re doing is wrong. We do the best we can to secure our safety. But when people attack our homes, when they shoot pellets — it gets to a point where it’s no longer a manageable situation. We’re frightened.”

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