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If Israel Hesitates, It Could Lose Some Benefits of Working with a New, Post-Assad Syria on Energy
Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks to a crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria, Dec. 8, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano
The collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 revived several Turkish-led energy infrastructure projects that had been abandoned due to the Syrian civil war. While some of these projects undermine Israel’s interest in becoming an “energy corridor” between Europe and the Arab Gulf States, others have the potential to open up new markets in the region for Israeli gas and electricity exports. This article will highlight three of these potential projects and examine their implications for Israeli regional interests: 1) a joint Turkey-Qatar gas pipeline through Syria; 2) an extension of the Arab Gas Pipeline to Turkey; and 3) new oil pipelines from the Arab Gulf States to Syria to replace Iranian oil supplies.
The Turkey-Qatar gas pipeline project through Syria
Soon after the fall of the Assad regime, Turkish media outlets began reporting on their government’s desire to revive an old plan to construct a gas pipeline between Qatar and Turkey through Syria. The pipeline was first announced in 2009 and was primarily promoted by Turkey. Qatar ultimately abandoned it due to technical and political difficulties, including the eruption of the civil war in Syria, high-profile disputes between Qatar and Saudi Arabia and between Turkey and Assad’s regime, and the crash in oil prices in 2014 that put many regional energy infrastructure plans on hold. Now that the Assad regime has fallen and relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia have warmed, Turkey is again interested in advancing the Turkey-Qatar gas pipeline project.
Proposed Turkey-Qatar gas pipeline
A joint gas pipeline with Qatar would serve several important Turkish interests. It would allow Turkey to strengthen its position as the main transit country for non-Russian gas to Europe; provide Turkey with an additional source of cheap gas to serve southeastern Turkey, which suffers from winter power outages due to unreliable supply from Iran and Iraq; and strengthen Turkish and Qatari ties with the new regime in Syria.
At this stage, there is no clear timeline for the pipeline’s construction and no estimate regarding the expected capacity or cost of such a project. Qatar likely wants to wait and see that the new regime in Syria is able to gain control over the center of the country before it makes any investment decisions. As a rule, energy companies do not invest in multibillion-dollar cross-border gas pipelines if they’re not certain that the transit country will remain stable and reliable for the next 10-15 years, which is the necessary period to recover a pipeline’s cost. This is especially important in areas of central Syria where the proposed pipeline will need to pass – areas that are still seeing activity by ISIS and similar groups and will therefore require strong security guarantees.
In the meantime, Qatar prefers to focus on securing its maritime transport routes to Europe, as it has become a major LNG supplier to Europe following the war in Ukraine. Qatar is also investing heavily in potential gas production projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, which will give it closer access to Europe and provide it with some leverage in the ongoing Turkey-Cyprus maritime dispute. These investments include the recent acquisition of a 23% stake in an Egyptian gas field and a partnership in two new drilling operations in Cypriot waters.
For Israel, the energy connection created between Turkey and Qatar through Syria could undermine some of its own ambitions to become part of an economic corridor between Europe and the Arab Gulf States, also known as the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). If a new gas pipeline between Qatar and Turkey is successfully established, it will be much easier to supplement that route with additional infrastructure, such as roads, rails, and electricity cables. It would thus be easier for the UAE and other Arab Gulf States to connect to it and export dry gas and other products to Europe through Turkey than to construct a brand-new corridor through Jordan and Israel to reach the Eastern Mediterranean.
While it is clear that the UAE won’t want to depend on Qatar or Turkey as transit partners, their appeal as an alternative will grow for the UAE so long as the war in Gaza continues and Israel’s status as an island of regional stability continues to erode. Israel should be mindful that the continuation of the war and subsequent delays to Saudi-Israeli normalization could eventually lead to a point where a lucrative regional economic plan completely bypasses Israel on its way to Europe. Israel should continue to promote the idea of an East-Mediterranean corridor with Cyprus and Greece, especially to potential investors in Europe and the US, as an essential component of regional economic plans.
Turkish connection to the Arab Gas Pipeline in Syria
While Turkey’s pipeline plans with Qatar may undermine Israeli interests, another Turkish plan might help Israel open up new markets for its natural gas exports. Over the past month, Turkey has been reexamining the possibility of connecting to the Arab Gas Pipeline through its mostly neglected section in Syria. The Arab Gas Pipeline, inaugurated in 2003, was initially designed to allow Egypt to export natural gas northward to Jordan and Syria. Plans to extend the pipeline further to Turkey were signed in 2006 and 2008 but abandoned in 2009, primarily due to financial disputes and the fact that Egypt was running out of gas to export. Today, the pipeline mainly serves Israel, as it transits Israeli gas to Jordan and southward to Egypt while the Syrian section remains unused. The pipeline can transfer about 10 BCM of natural gas annually, but this amount can be increased to 15 BCM, given pipeline upgrades with additional compression stations.
The Arab Gas Pipeline
If Turkey does in fact connect to the Arab Gas Pipeline in its Syrian section, Israel could theoretically transit gas northward through Jordan to Turkey and from there to Europe (either directly or through swap deals). Such a plan is not likely to occur without a significant improvement in Israel-Turkey diplomatic relations, as well as normalization between Israel and the new regime in Syria. But even if none of those things occurs, Israeli gas can still reach Turkey if Jordan or Egypt serves as an “end user” for Israeli gas that they then sell onward to Turkey. A similar arrangement has existed over the past two years: Israeli gas is exported to Egypt, which then liquefies it and exports it to Turkey and other destinations.
There is a snag, however. Any arrangement Israel creates to sell dry gas by pipeline to Turkey, even indirectly, could be perceived by Cyprus and Greece as undermining their interests with Israel. Additionally, the new pipeline connection might undermine some of the goals of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). The Turkish plan to connect to the Arab Gas Pipeline in Syria is only one of several plans for major infrastructure connections between the two countries. Turkish officials have already discussed projects that advance cross-border road, rail, and communication infrastructure with the new Syrian regime. Such projects would further cement Turkey’s influence in Syria and could provide Ankara with several benefits. One would be the drafting of a new maritime border agreement between Turkey and Syria that would challenge Cyprus’s maritime claims and undermine cooperation in the EMGF.
Israel should take steps to assuage such concerns from Cyprus and Greece. It should make clear that any opportunity Israel may have to export gas through Turkey would not contradict its plans to advance joint infrastructure in the Eastern Mediterranean. Even if the pipeline plans in Syria materialize, Israeli gas companies won’t want to rely on Syria and Turkey as the main transit countries for their gas and would only use it cautiously and in limited amounts. Moreover, Israeli energy companies are not keen to rely on Egypt and Jordan as end users to sell Israeli gas to Turkey, partly over debt payment issues. They would still prefer a more direct route to new markets to diversify their portfolio, such as a joint LNG project with Cyprus.
Non-Iranian oil pipelines and electricity connections to Syria
The new regime in Syria has energy interests beyond using the country as a transit area for gas pipelines. Syria is in desperate need of a stable supply of oil now that it is without a regular supply of Iranian crude oil and fuels. During Assad’s regime, Syria received about 90% of its oil supply from Iran (60,000-70,000 barrels per day), with another 10% coming from local Syrian oil fields. In addition, Hezbollah smuggled fuel to Syria through Lebanon (despite Lebanon’s own problems with severe oil shortages). Syria’s new reality is very different. Immediately following the collapse of Assad’s regime, Iran cut off all oil shipments to Syria. At the same time, Israel bombed Hezbollah’s smuggling routes to Syria, thereby preventing fuel from being smuggled in from Lebanon.
Oil and Gas Pipelines in Syria
Under these new circumstances, Syria is now seeking cooperation agreements to receive regular oil supplies from one or more of its neighbors. The most immediate means would be cross-border truck shipments, which are expensive and infrequent. In the long term, Syria will seek new pipeline projects to ensure a consistent flow. The most obvious source would be the existing oil pipeline between Syria and Kirkuk in Iraq, which stopped operations in the 1980s and would require rehabilitation. However, those oil fields are now under the control of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, which might provoke opposition from Turkey.
Additionally, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia are all examining the possibility of becoming Syria’s new oil supplier as part of the regional game to gain a political foothold with the new Syrian regime. In the coming months, we should expect to see many movements in this direction. Saudi Arabia is highly motivated to supply oil to Syria instead of Qatar and possibly thwart other Qatari plans to strengthen its presence in Syria together with Turkey.
It seems that at this stage, Israel has not yet made a clear decision regarding the nature of its relationship with the new regime in Syria. This is understandable, considering the numerous political scenarios that could still occur in Syria that would completely change existing calculations. However, in terms of potential, a normalization agreement between Israel and Syria could open new energy routes and economic opportunities for Israel, including natural gas exports, assistance in oil supply, the establishment of joint wind turbines in the Golan Heights, and more. If Israel is slow to react to developments surrounding new energy infrastructure in Syria, especially those led by Turkey, it might lose a valuable economic and political opportunity to become an integral part of a new regional energy corridor.
Dr. Elai Rettig is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Studies and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He specializes in energy geopolitics and national security. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post If Israel Hesitates, It Could Lose Some Benefits of Working with a New, Post-Assad Syria on Energy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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BBC Criticized for Hiring New Boss From Canada Who Previously Said Not to Call Hamas ‘Terrorists’
The BBC logo is seen at the entrance at Broadcasting House, the BBC headquarters in central London. Photo by Vuk Valcic / SOPA Images/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has come under fire for hiring George Achi in a senior position after he previously instructed journalists at Canada’s state broadcaster not to refer to members of the internationally designated terrorist organization Hamas as “terrorists.”
The BBC Press Office announced on Monday on its LinkedIn page that Achi is the new head of editorial quality and compliance for BBC World Service. He is currently director of journalistic standards at the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC); previously worked as a reporter in Beirut, Caracas, and Ottawa; and was an editor at Montreal’s La Presse and at the Toronto Star. Later this year he will start his new position at BBC World Service, which serves a weekly audience of 320 million people around the world in 42 languages.
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Chief Rabbi Invites Counterterror Task Force to South Africa Following Bombing Attempt at Jewish Center
Anti-Israel protesters march through the streets of the township of Lenasia in Johannesburg, South Africa, Oct. 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ihsaan Haffejee
South African Chief Rabbi Warren Goldstein has invited a counterterrorism task force to his country to assist with the investigation into a recent attempted bombing of a Jewish community center in Cape Town and to make recommendations to protect places of worship, schools, and community centers amid a steep rise in antisemitism.
The move, announced this week in both a YouTube video and social media post, came about a month after the local Cape Town branch of the South African Jewish Board of Deputies (SAJBD), the umbrella group of the country’s Jewish community, said that an “improvised explosive device” had been thrown over the front wall into the community center and “failed to detonate.”
No one was hurt and no damage was caused in the incident. The facility, located in the neighborhood of Gardens, reportedly contains offices for many Jewish community organizations, including a women’s group, a youth movement, and a Jewish newspaper, among others.
The incident occurred on the same day that arsonists heavily damaged a synagogue in Melbourne, Australia, in what both law enforcement and political leaders called an antisemitic attack.
Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis confirmed at the time that city police were helping the South African Police Service (SAPS) investigate the matter and analyze closed-circuit television (CCTV) footage to find the perpetrator. He added that the case has been handed to South Africa’s Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, known as the Hawks.
Now an international task force will be assisting the investigation and more broadly assessing the terrorist threat in South Africa, with the added goal of helping Jewish communities in other countries combat similar threats facing them.
“There have been a host of similar terror attacks against Jewish communities worldwide. Out of an abundance of caution, and with the heavy responsibility of my office, I have invited a counter terrorism task force to assist the investigation into the attack in Cape Town, as part of this global trend,” Goldstein said in a statement. “In carrying out its mandate, the task force is also working with the Security Advisory Council of the World Jewish Congress, and is being advised by an expert legal team.”
Goldstein noted that Iran, whose Islamist leaders openly seek Israel’s destruction and are widely regarded by Western governments as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism, poses a particular threat to Jewish communities around the world.
“There is a growing terror threat from Iran against Jews worldwide, and the task force’s work in South Africa will assist all diaspora communities,” Goldstein continued. “I have asked the task force to write a report on their findings, including an assessment of the terror threat here in South Africa within the global context, and to make recommendations for protecting places of worship, schools, and community centers in South Africa and worldwide from the threat of terrorism.”
The task force is led by Andre Pienaar, co-founder of the Directorate of Special Operations (DSO), known as the Scorpions, an elite law enforcement unit created by President Nelson Mandela in South Africa.
Other task force members include Dean Haydon, former senior national coordinator for counterterrorism in the United Kingdom and former deputy commissioner of the Metropolitan Police; Admiral Mike Hewitt, former deputy director for global operations who also served the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the US Defense Department; and Maj. Gen. (Ret.) David Tsur, former commander of the counterterrorism unit in the Israeli Police (Yamam).
“This investigation is about bringing light into our world: to shed light on terror so that it cannot hide in the dark corners of society, to shed light on the threats so that we can counter them, to shed light on evil so that it may be defeated,” Goldstein said.
“By doing this, we make South Africa and the world not just safer for Jews but for all decent people,” he added. “History has shown that a society that is unsafe for Jews is unsafe for civilized values, and is not a place where people can truly thrive and flourish.”
Drawing inspiration from the book of Genesis, Goldstein framed the mission in terms of moral clarity and the pursuit of safety for all people.
“God’s very first act of creation was to say, ‘Let there be light.’ For goodness and human civilization to exist, there must be light — the light of moral clarity to distinguish between good and evil, the light of knowledge, information, and understanding,” he said. “This investigation is about bringing light into our world. To shed light on the darkness of terror so that it cannot hide in the dark corners of society, to shed light on the threats so that we counter them, to shed light on evil so that it may be defeated.”
The task force will deliver its findings and recommendations in a forthcoming report, with the goal of making actionable recommendations to safeguard Jewish community spaces.
Goldstein’s latest move came amid a surge in global antisemitism, with several countries reporting record levels of anti-Jewish hate crimes and other antisemitic incidents since the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, amid the ensuing war in Gaza.
The South African Jewish community has repeatedly lambasted President Cyril Ramaphosa and his ruling African National Congress (ANC) for insufficiently combating antisemitism and being one of the harshest critics of Israel since the Hamas atrocities of last Oct. 7.
For the past year, the South African government has been pursuing its case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Israel of committing “state-led genocide” in its defensive war against Hamas in Gaza. In late October, South Africa filed the bulk of the relevant material to support its allegations, a move that the SAJBD slammed as a demonstration of “grandstanding” rather than actual concern for those killed in the Middle Eastern conflict.
South Africa temporarily withdrew its diplomats from Israel and shuttered its embassy in Tel Aviv shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas pogrom, saying that the Pretoria government was “extremely concerned at the continued killing of children and innocent civilians” in Gaza.
Then in December 2023, South Africa hosted two Hamas officials who attended a government-sponsored conference in solidarity with the Palestinians. One of the officials had been sanctioned by the US government for his role with the terrorist organization.
This past May, members of South Africa’s Jewish community protested Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor’s call for students and university leaders to intensify the anti-Israel demonstrations that have engulfed college campuses across the US.
Later that month, Ramaphosa led the crowd at an election rally in a chant of “From the river to the sea, Palestine shall be free” — a popular slogan among anti-Israel activists that has been widely interpreted as a genocidal call for the destruction of the Jewish state, which is located between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
Ramaphosa’s ANC has also supported a proposal by the City of Johannesburg to rename the street on which the US Consulate is located after notorious Palestinian terrorist Leila Khaled, who hijacked a Tel Aviv-bound plane in 1969 and attempted another hijacking, this time of an El Al flight, in 1970.
The government’s ardent opposition to Israel did not help its performance in elections last year, when the ANC lost its majority in parliament for the first time in South Africa’s post-apartheid democratic history. However, it still remained the largest party and retained power at the national level through a coalition.
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Israel, Hamas Reach Deal Meant to End Gaza War, Free Hostages, Official Says
Supporters of Israeli hostages, who were kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, react to news on the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, during a protest to demand a deal to bring every hostage home, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Jan. 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Negotiators reached a phased deal on Wednesday to end the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after 15 months of conflict that has inflamed the Middle East.
The accord, which has not yet been formally announced, outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase and includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, the official told Reuters.
Phase one entails the release of 33 Israeli hostages including all women, children, and men over 50.
Negotiations on implementing the second phase will begin by the 16th day of phase one and it is expected to include the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
The third phase is expected to address the return of all remaining dead bodies and the start of Gaza’s reconstruction supervised by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
The agreement follows months of on-off negotiations conducted by Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with the backing of the United States, and comes just ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump.
Hamas, Gaza’s dominant Palestinian terrorist group, told Reuters its delegation had handed mediators its approval for the ceasefire agreement and return of hostages.
A Palestinian official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters earlier Hamas had given verbal approval to the ceasefire and hostage return proposal and was awaiting more information to give final written approval.
If successful, the planned ceasefire could halt fighting in Gaza that is still ongoing between Israel and Hamas, which launched the war with its invasion of the Jewish state on Oct. 7, 2023.
That in turn could defuse tensions across the wider Middle East, where the war has stoked conflict in the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, and raised fears of all-out war between arch regional foes Israel and Iran.
Even if the warring sides implement the current deal, it will still require further negotiation before there is a lasting ceasefire and the release of all the hostages.
MASSIVE TASK OF RECONSTRUCTION
If all goes smoothly, the Palestinians, Arab states, and Israel still must agree on a vision for post-war Gaza, a formidable challenge involving security guarantees for Israel and billions of dollars in investment for rebuilding.
One unanswered question is who will run Gaza after the war.
Israel has rejected any involvement by Hamas, which had ruled Gaza since 2007, but it has been almost equally opposed to rule by the Palestinian Authority, the body set up under the Oslo interim peace accords three decades ago that has limited governing power in the West Bank.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said he was cutting a visit to Europe short and flying home overnight to take part in security cabinet and government votes on the deal — meaning the votes would likely be by or on Thursday.
Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists started the conflict when they murdered 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 hostages to Gaza during their invasion of and massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7. Jerusalem responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in Gaza.
As his inauguration approached, Trump repeated his demand that a deal be done swiftly, warning repeatedly that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released by the time he took office. His Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff worked with President Joe Biden’s team to push the deal over the line.
In Israel, the return of the hostages may ease some of the public anger against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government over the Oct. 7 security failure that led to the deadliest single day in the country’s history.
Gaza’s conflict spilled over across the Middle East, with Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen targeting Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.
The deal emerged a few months after Israel eliminated the top leaders of Hamas and Lebanon’s Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in assassinations that gave it the upper hand.
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“In his new role, he’ll work closely with the BBC World Service leadership team, ensuring the highest editorial standards are maintained at the international broadcaster,” the BBC Press Office said in its announcement.
“At this point, it seems that the BBC is completely unashamed of its editorial bias,” said the British volunteer-led charity Campaign Against Antisemitism (CAA) in a statement to The Algemeiner. “It is bewildering that, despite repeated calls for the broadcaster to call Hamas what it is — an antisemitic, genocidal terror group — the corporation has decided to double down and appoint someone who appears to have actively directed journalists not to describe terrorists in legally accurate terms. The fact that George Achi will be the Head of Editorial Quality and Compliance for the BBC World Service is pretty ironic and raises yet more questions for the BBC.”
In October 2023, shortly after the Hamas-led terrorist attack in southern Israel — in which 1,200 people were murdered and 251 were taken as hostages to the Gaza Strip — a memo leaked online showed that Achi told journalists at CBC to avoid referring to Hamas as a terrorist organization. He said in the memo, sent to CBC staff members, that referring to members of Hamas as “terrorists” is a matter of opinion and not fact. He made the comment even though Hamas is a designated terrorist organization in Canada — among several other countries — and after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau referred to Hamas as a terrorist organization when condemning the Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel.
“Do not refer to militants, soldiers or anyone else as ‘terrorists,’” read the memo written by Achi. “The notion of terrorism remains heavily politicized and is part of the story. Even when quoting/clipping a government or a source referring to fighters as ‘terrorists,’ we should add context to ensure the audience understands this is opinion, not fact. That includes statements from the Canadian government and Canadian politicians. Please use fact-checked language, avoid loaded qualifiers, and anything that sounds like opinion. The story, with its content, speaks for itself.”
After the memo was leaked online, conservatives in Canada called for CBC to be investigated.
The CBC responded at the time by claiming the leaked memo was taken out of context. “We have since been asked multiple times why CBC News would ‘ban’ the use of the word ‘terrorist.’’The answer is clear: we most certainly do not ban it,” said CBC News editor-in-chief Brodie Fenlon. “But CBC News does not itself designate specific groups as terrorists, or specific acts as terrorism, regardless of the region or the events, because these words are so loaded with meaning, politics, and emotion that they can end up being impediments to our journalism.”
The BBC was also criticized for repeatedly not labeling members of Hamas as “terrorists” in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 massacre. A reporter who quit his job at the public service broadcaster for that reason said, “The BBC’s refusal to use the correct terminology is unjustified.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog condemned the BBC for “its atrocious refusal to brand Hamas as a terrorist group.”